BURMA'S APRIL 23 "PALACE COUP"

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 02619


STATE FOR EAP/TB AND INM/AMB BORG
CINCPAC ALSO FOR FPA

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV PINR BM
SUBJECT: BURMA'S APRIL 23 "PALACE COUP"

REF: RANGOON 2558 (NOTAL)


1. SECRET ENTIRE TEXT.


2. ON MAY 6-7, TWO SOURCES WITH UNUSUALLY GOOD
ACCESS TO BURMA'S MILITARY LEADERSHIP PROVIDED CHARGE
WITH A TOUR D'HORIZON ON RECENT POLITICAL
DEVELOPMENTS HERE. BOTH CONFIRMED OUR INITIAL
ASSESSMENT OF BURMA'S APRIL 23 "PALACE COUP" WHEREIN
FORMER HEAD OF STATE AND ARMED FORCES COMMANDER SAW
MAUNG CEDED PLACE TO GENERAL THAN SHWE WHILE
INTELLIGENCE KHIN NYUNT REMAINED "DE FACTO PRIME
MINISTER" AND BEARER OF NE WIN'S EPISODIC POLICY
SUGGESTIONS (REFTEL). CONCURRING THAT SAW MAUNG WAS
GONE FOREVER DESPITE FACESAVING OFFICIAL RHETORIC TO
THE CONTRARY, THEY NOTED THAT HIS SECURITY
DETACHMENTS (ABOUT 1300 SOLDIERS IN ALL) HAD BEEN
TRANSFERRED WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN UNDETERMINED NUMBER
HAVE ALSO BEEN DETAINED FOR QUESTIONING BY MILITARY
INTELLIGENCE (DDSI). ADDITIONALLY, THE DDSI IS
CLOSELY MONITORING ARMY CHIEF OF STAFF TIN 00 AND
SEVERAL OTHER SENIOR MILITARY WHO HAD ARGUED FOR
KEEPING SAW MAUNG IN POWER DURING SEVERAL MID-APRIL
SLORC STRATEGY SESSIONS.


3. ONE SOURCE, A LONGTIME NE WIN CONFIDANTE, SAID
THAT SAW MAUNG'S RETIREMENT, WHILE PRECIPITATED BY A
SHARP DECLINE IN HIS HEALTH IN EARLY APRIL, HAD
ACTUALLY BEEN IN THE WORKS FOR SEVERAL MONTHS.
IMPARTING MESSAGES VIA KHIN NYUNT, NE WIN HAD AT
LEAST TWICE PUT OUT THE WORD THAT IT WAS TIME FOR THE
AILING SENIOR GENERAL TO CONSIDER STEPPING DOWN.
COMMENT: THIS TRACKS WITH EARLIER AARO/RANGOON
REPORTING AND OTHER EMBASSY INTELLIGENCE. HOWEVER,
IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE INITIAL IMPETUS CAME FROM
NE WIN OR FROM THAN SHWE/KHIN NYUNT WHO HAD EARLIER
PUSHED SAW MAUNG UNSUCCESSFULLY TO INITIATE SOME
POLITICAL/ECONOMIC REFORMS. IN THIS REGARD, OUR
OTHER SOURCE -- THE ONLY FOREIGNER GENUINELY CLOSE TO
THE JUNTA -- ALLOWED THAT IT WAS DISTINCTLY POSSIBLE
THAT KHIN NYUNT HAD PRESENTED NE WIN WITH REASONS FOR
LEVERING SAW MAUNG OUT OF POWER. THESE MAY THEN HAVE
BEEN PLAYED BACK, WITH NE WIN'S IMPRIMATUR, TO THE
COLLECTIVE SLORC IN MID-APRIL.


4. ONE INFORMANT NOTED THAT WHILE THE SLORC HAD
COLLECTIVELY AGREED THAT SAW MAUNG SHOULD STEP DOWN,
THE FINAL PUSH CAME VIA A FOLLOW-UP LETTER FROM NE
WIN. QUOTING SAW MAUNG'S SON AND STAFF AIDE AS HIS
SOURCES, OUR INTERLOCUTOR SAID THE LETTER HAD BEEN
HAND DELIVERED BY A "WEEPY" KHIN NYUNT. REACTING
ANGRILY -- "NE WIN COULD HAVE TOLD ME PERSONALLY" --
SAW MAUNG THEN DESPATCHED HIS SON TO NE WIN'S
RESIDENCE WITH A RECLAMA, WHICH PROVED UNSUCCESSFUL.
THEREAFTER, SAW MAUNG WAS UNDER HEAVY SEDATION MIXED
WITH PULLS FROM THE BOTTLE, AND ALL BUT INERT ON
APRIL 23.


5. LOOKING AHEAD, BOTH SOURCES SAID THAT THE NEW
REGIME'S RECENT POSITIVE STEPS DID NOT PRESAGE A
WHOLESALE LIBERALIZATION OF BURMA. THE MILITARY
MIND-SET THAT PERCEIVES THE ARMY AS "INDISPENSIBLE TO
A BELEAGUERED, FRAGILE NATION" IS STILL THERE. THAT
SAID, THEY EXPECTED AT LEAST HALTING PROGRESS TOWARDS
A COSMETIC DEMOCRACY AND TRUE ECONOMIC REFORM. TO
THESE ENDS, SENIOR REGIONAL COMMANDERS ARE TO BE
CALLED IN WITHIN A WEEK OR SO TO DISCUSS BANKING
LIBERALIZATION, CURRENCY RATE READJUSTMENT AND WAYS
TO BUILD ON THE RECENT GOB CEASE-FIRE VIS-A-VIS THE
KAREN INSURGENTS.


6. AS FOR THE STABILITY OF BURMA'S REVISED MILITARY
LEADERSHIP, NEITHER FORESAW AN/ SPECIFIC IMPENDING
PROBLEMS. THAN SHWE, THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY CLOSE
TO THE OLDER MEMBERS OF THE SLORC, ENJOYS GENERALLY
GOOD TIES WITH THE KEY UPCOUNTRY COMMANDERS AND
ACCEPTABLE WORKING RELATIONS WITH KHIN NYUNT AND
OTHER MAJOR PLAYERS IN RANGOON. ALSO, LEST THE
WATERS BE UNDULY ROILED (AND TO CONCENTRATE HIS OWN
POWER),THE NEW HEAD OF STATE PLANS FOR NOW TO LEAVE
THE DEPUTY ARMED FORCES COMMANDER AND ARMY CINC
POSITIONS VACANT. COMMENT: WE HAVE ALSO HEARD
INDICATIONS THAT THAN SHWE HAS ABOLISHED OR WILL SOON
ABOLISH THESE POSITIONS.


HUDDLE