TFS 0001: SOMALIA: SUDANESE GOVERNMENT BEGINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 08788


CAIRO ALSO FOR ASST SECTY. COHEN

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL MOPS SU SO
SUBJECT: TFS 0001: SOMALIA: SUDANESE GOVERNMENT BEGINS
TO REACT TO PROSPECTS FOR U.S. FORCES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD

REF: A. KHARTOUM OB?12

B. KHARTOUM OB?57

C. KHARTOUM 08766


1. IN WHAT THE GOVERNMENT CONTROLLED MEDIA HERE
TERM "AN EXPRESSION OF ANXIETY," SUDAN'S HEAD OF
STATE, LT. GEM. OMAR AL BASHIR, IN HIS DECEMBER
2ND PRESS CONFERENCE, SAID HE HAS WORRIED ABOUT
"THE SUDDEN ESCALATION OF THE CONFLICT IN
SOMALIA AND THE U.N. DECISION TO SEND FORTY
THOUSAND (SIC) U.S. FORCES TO THAT SMALL
COUNTRY."


2. BASHIR EMPHASIZED THAT "SUCH A LARGE-SCALE
FOREIGN INTERVENTION AT THE SIZE FIXED BY THE
U.N. WILL AGGRAVATE THE PROBLEM..." HE ALSO
COMPLAINED THAT THE INTERVENTION IGNORES THE
"EFFORTS WHICH ARE BEING EXERTED BY THE
COUNTRIES OF THE HORN OF AFRICA..." WHICH HAD
"RECEIVED POSITIVE RESPONSES FROM ALL THE
CONFLICTING FACTIONS."


3. BASHIR ASSERTED THAT THE EFFORTS OF THE
"COUNTRIES IN THE AREA COULD RESULT IN THE
SOLUTION OF THE PROBLEM." ACCORDING TO HIM,
"SOMALIA HAS RECENTLY WITNESSED RELATIVE
STABILITY DUE TO THE PEACE EFFORTS CARRIED OUT
BY THE COUNTRIES OF THE HORN OF AFRICA." HE
CALLED FOR AVOIDING ESCALATION.


4. SUMMING UP, BASHIR SAID; "SUDAN VIEWED THE
DISPATCH OF AMERICAN AND INTERNATIONAL FORCES TO
SOMALIA...AS UNJUSTIFIED AND PART OF AN
INTERNATIONAL CONSPIRACY AIMING FOR A MILITARY
PRESENCE IN THE HORN OF AFRICA REGION, WHICH
OVERLOOKS THE MOST IMPORTANT WATERWAY IN THE
WORLD..."


5. IN NAIROBI, FOR TALKS ON CONTINUING SUDAN'S
STALLED PEACE PROCESS, DELEGATION CHIEF AND
MAJOR ISLAMIC FRONT FIGURE DR. ALI AL HAJ TOLD
THE PRESS THAT THE MOVEMENT OF U.S. FORCES INTO
SOMALIA "WOULD CAUSE INTERNATIONAL ANARCHY,
NON-RESPECT OF NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY AND A NEW
FORM OF IMPERIALISM."


6. COMMENT: WE EXPECT SUDANESE ANXIETIES TO
RISE EVEN MORE AS THE INTERVENTION UNFOLDS. THE
INTERPLAY OF STEADILY WORSENING RELATIONS WITH
THE U.S. AND THE OTHER INDUSTRIAL DEMOCRACIES
(AS WELL AS WITH SOME OF SUDAN'S NEIGHBORS) AND
THE U.N'S CONDEMNATION OF SUDAN'S HUMAN RIGHTS
ABUSES IS PRODUCING A CUMULATIVE ISOLATING
EFFECT ON THIS HARD-LINE REGIME. THE FOREIGN
MINISTER'S VERY OUT OF STEP COMMENTS TO
AMBASSADOR (REFTEL C) SHOW ALSO THE DISARRAY THE
ACTION IS CAUSING INSIDE THE FRACTIOUS GOS.


7. AS REFTEL A REPORTS, THE SUDANESE PUBLIC IS
REACTING, AT TIMES QUITE ILLOGICALLY, TO WHAT
THEY SEE AS A CHANGE IN THE POLITICAL
ENVIRONMENT IN THIS REGION. REFTEL B GIVING
MORE PRESS REACTION, RECORDS "THE MODERN SUDAN"
FRETTING THAT; "THE INFLUX OF SUCH A HUGE NUMBER
OF TROOPS WILL...EXPAND INTO AN ORGANIZED
INVASION OF THE WHOLE REGION."


8. THE INCREASING INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE ON THE
GOS, THE INTRODUCTION OF U.S. AND OTHER WESTERN
FORCES INTO THE HORN, WHATEVER THEIR MISSION AND
ITS STATED LIMITATIONS, AND THE CONTINUED WAVES
OF RUMOR AND SUPPOSITION ABOUT GOVERNMENTAL
SHIFTS HERE ARE TAKING A TOLL. THE STREET RATE
ON U.S. DOLLARS HAS MOVED UP QUICKLY THIS WEEK
TO ONE HUNDRED SIXTY SUDANESE POUNDS FROM ONE
FORTY-EIGHT AND DOLLARS ARE NOW VERY SCARCE. WE
EXPECT MORE OF THIS TO COME.


PETTERSON