EMERGENCE OF BASHIR? - ROLE DEFINING IN THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 02013

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (DELETING SECTION INFORMATION)

E.O. 12356:DECL:OADR
TAGS: PGOV SU
SUBJECT: EMERGENCE OF BASHIR? - ROLE DEFINING IN THE
NIF DOMINATED GOVERNMENT OF SUDAN

REF: ADDIS ABABA 01259 (NOTAL)


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. SUMMARY AND COMMENT: FROM A NUMBER OF CONTACTS
WE HAVE HAD LATELY IN KHARTOUM'S EVER ACTIVE
POLITICAL CIRCLES, THERE IS PLAUSIBLE, BUT NOT YET
CONCLUSIVE, HOPE THAT SUDAN'S PRESIDENT MAY BE
TRYING TO WIGGLE OUT SOMEWHAT FROM UNDER THE NIF
SHADOW. BASHIR'S CONTINUING WEAKNESS, HOWEVER, IS
THAT HIS CORE SUPPORT GROUP, THE ARMY, IS BEING
REMOLDED DAY BY DAY BY THE NIF. WHEN IT COMES TO
POLITICAL ASSETS, BASHIR HAS HAD LITTLE TO RECOMMEND
HIM BUT HIS UNIFORM. THAT NOW MAY BE DEVALUED. ANY
INDEPENDENCE HE NOW MAY SHOW, PERHAPS USING THE NEW
TNC, MAY WELL BE TOO LATE TO MATTER MUCH. END
SUMMARY.


3. A RECENT CONVERSATION BETWEEN DCM, POL&ECON
COUNSELOR AND PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR FOR CIVILIAN
AFFAIRS AHMED ZEIN AL ABDIEN, NEWLY NAMED TO THE
TRANSITIONAL NATIONAL COUNCIL AND LONG A DUP PARTY
STALWART, PARALLELED GENERALLY THE LINE WE HAVE BEEN
HEARING FROM OTHERS LATELY THAT BASHIR HAS SOME
IDEAS OF HIS OWN AND IS NOT A TOTALLY KEPT MAN.
THIS ARGUMENT ALSO SQUARES WITH THE COMMENTS BASHIR
IS REPORTED TO HAVE MADE TO TGE PRESIDENT MELES AND
PGE CHIEF ISAIAS DURING HIS RECENT VISIT TO ASMARA.
(REFTEL).


4. AL ABDEIN HAS BEEN ONE OF OUR FEW BRIDGES TO
BASHIR AS US/SUDAN RELATIONS SOURED AND SANK. HE IS
A WESTERN ORIENTED LAWYER, AN OLD TIME POLITICIAN
AND WHEELER-DEALER, AND AN ODD MAN IN BASHIR'S
ENTOURAGE. WE TAKE HIM FOR A MESSAGE BEARER, AND A
MAN TO REPORT HIS SOUNDINGS TO BASHIR. AS FAR AS WE
CAN TELL, HE IS NOT SOME NIF PLANT DOUBLING ON
BASHIR BUT HAS HIS OWN AXES TO GRIND.


5. IN THE COURSE OF A LENGTHY CONVERSATION ON THE
NEW PSEUDO-PARLIAMENT, THE TNC, AL ABDEIN SAID HE
HAD RECEIVED BY DIRECT INTERVENTION WITH BASHIR, A
FAIR SLICE OF THE SEATS FOR HIS OWN DUP PARTY
CRONIES. HE DESCRIBED THE PROCESS IN TERMS OF
POLITICAL WHEELING AND DEALING, ASSURING US THAT,
NIF OR NOT, SUDAN STILL HAD PLENTY OF ACTIVE
POLITICKING GOING ON.


6. HE ALSO MADE THE POINT THAT THE TNC COULD, NOT
WOULD, DEVELOP INTO A POLITICAL MECHANISM OF USE TO
BASHIR DESPITE ITS RIGGED NIF MAJORITY OF
APPOINTEES. AL ABDEIN WENT TO SOME LENGTH TO PAINT
BASHIR AS A MAN BURDENED WITH OFFICE, AN
UNSOPHISTICATED BUT GENERALLY HONEST SOLDIER WHO WAS
IN OVER HIS HEAD. AL ABDEIN VERY STRONGLY
SUGGESTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE TNC COULD TURN OUT TO
BE A BASHIR HORSE TO THE NIF'S TROY. IF PROPERLY
USED, THE TNC COULD SERVE TO BUILD POLITICAL POWER
BACKING THE PRESIDENT. HE WOULD NOT BE DRAWN OUT ON
THE CHANCES FOR THIS COMING ABOUT.


6. MORE COMMENT: WE DOUBT THAT AN EMERGENCE OF
BASHIR VIA THE TNC IS IN THE CARDS. FROM ALL THAT
WE HAVE SEEN OF IT AND ITS ORGANISATION, THE TNC
MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES AN OLD SOVIET STYLE PEOPLES
CONGRESS, A PULPIT FOR THE OLIGARCHS TO USE TO
RECEIVE PREPARED OVATIONS. BUT AL ABDEIN'S
SUGGESTION THAT BASHIR MIGHT WANT TO USE THIS BODY
AND HIS REPEATED ASSERTION THAT BASHIR IS NOT JUST A
CIPHER, LEAD US TO THINK BASHIR MAY IN FACT HAVE
SOME THOUGHTS ABOUT WHERE HIS NIF MENTORS HAVE LED
HIM AND HIS COUNTRY.


7. EVEN IF TRUE, IT MAY WELL BE TOO LATE. IN ANY
EVENT, THE NIF ARE MAKING IT MORE AND MORE CLEAR
THAT THEY PLAY ROUGH; ANY ERRANT SHOW OF INDEPENDENCE
IN THE TNC IS LIKELY TO GET ITS AUTHOR SMACKED DOWN
PROMPTLY. IF BASHIR HOPES TO USE THE TNC TO BUILD
HIMSELF A POLITICAL BASE, HE WILL HAVE TO MOVE WITH
MORE POLITICAL SAVVY AND ENERGY THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN
HIM SO FAR.

CHEEK