Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
92HAVANA781
1992-02-07 20:15:00
CONFIDENTIAL
US Interests Section Havana
how-toR 072015Z FEB 92 FM USINT HAVANA TO AMEMBASSY MADRID INFO SECSTATE WASHDC 1421 USMISSION GENEVA 1807/ USIA WASHDC 5930 AMEMBASSY MEXICO AMEMBASSY CARACAS AMEMBASSY ROME USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3951 AMEMBASSY KINGSTON USCINCLANT NORFOLK VA CCGDSEVEN MIAMI FL USLO CARIBBEAN COMNAVBASE GUANTANAMO BAY FBIS KEY WEST
C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 00781
USIA FOR AR, P/G, B/CR; DEPT FOR ARA/CCA;
ROME ALSO FOR VATICAN; CINCLANT FOR POLAD
E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL PGOV CU SP
SUBJECT: SPAIN AND CASTRO
REF: MABRID 1246
C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 00781
USIA FOR AR, P/G, B/CR; DEPT FOR ARA/CCA;
ROME ALSO FOR VATICAN; CINCLANT FOR POLAD
E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL PGOV CU SP
SUBJECT: SPAIN AND CASTRO
REF: MABRID 1246
1. (C) USINT APPRECIATES EMBASSY MADRID'S EXCELLENT
REPORT ON SPAIN'S GROWING DISENCHANTMENT WITH FIDEL
CASTRO. WE FOLLOW THE SPANISH-CUBAN RELATIONSHIP AS
CLOSELY AS WE CAN FROM HAVANA, AND OUR INFORMATION TRACKS
WELL WITH THAT IN REFTEL. WE OFFER A COUPLE OF THOUGHTS
FROM THE HAVANA PERSPECTIVE.
-
2. (C) MORE THAN MOST, THE SPANIARDS HAVE INDULGED IN
WISHFUL THINKING ABOUT FIDEL CASTRO. PERHAPS BECAUSE
OF HIS GALICIAN ROOTS, PERHAPBSECAUSE OF HIS POWERFUL
PERSONALITY, PERHAPS BECAUSE OF HIS CAREFULLY CULTIVATED
ROMANTIC IMAGE AS THE CARIBBEAN DAVID FACING THE NORTH
AMERICAN GOLIATH, THEY HAVE TENDED TO GIVE HIM THE
BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT. THEY ALSO THOUGHT THEY HAD
SPECIAL INFLUENCE. IF THEY EVER DID, THEY NO LONGER
HAVE. CASTRO HAS NOW SHOWN THAT HE CAN BE AS DISMISSIVE
OF FELIPE GONZALEZ AS HE CAN OF ANYONE ELSE WHO OFFERS
HIM ADVISE HE DOES NOT LIKE.
-
3. (C) THE SPANIARDS -- AND FOR THAT MATTER MOST
WEST EUROPEANS -- HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RECOGNIZE CASTRO
FOR WHAT HE IS: A SOMETIMES CHARMING BUT ALWAYS
RUTHLESS DICTATOR. NOW THAT THEY ARE LESS LIKELY TO
RATIONALIZE HIS EGREGIOUS BEHAVIOR (SUCH AS THE
CURRENT CRACKDOWN ON HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVISTS) THEY SEEM
TO BE MORE LIKELY TO OVERREACT TO IT. THEY TEND TO
SEE THE CURRENT SITUATION IN MORE APOCALYPTIC TERMS
THAN THEY MIGHT HAVE IF THEIR VISION HD NOT BEEN
CLOUDED BY ROMANTICISM AND WISHFUL THINKING FOR THREE
DECADES. MOREOVER, MADRID'S PESSIMISM PROBABLY ALSO
REFLECTS THAT OF SPANISH EMBASSY PERSONNEL HERE WHO
SEEM TO TAKE CASTRO'S INTRANSIGENCE AS A PERSONAL
AFFRONT. THEY HAVE ALSO BEEN DISILLUSIONED BY THE
RECENT HARDLINE PRONOUNCEMENTS OF PCC IDEOLOGY CHIEF
CARLOS ALDANA TO WHOM THEY HAD EARLIER IMPUTED THE
ROLE OF INNER CIRCLE LIBERAL.
-
4. (C) ALL OF THIS IS NOT TO SUGGEST THAT THE
CASTRO REGIME IS NOT IN CRISIS. AND IT IS VERY
POSSIBLE, EVEN LIKELY THAT CHANGE, WHEN IT COMES, WILL
BE VIOLENT. HOWEVER WE BELIEVE THAT THE CUBAN REALITY
HAS NOT CHANGED AS MUCH AS THE SPANISH PERCEPTION OF IT.
-
5. (C) FINALLY, WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT CASTRO
WILL BE INVITED TO THE SEVILLE SUMMIT, MWE HAVE SEEN
PRESS REPORTS IN THE PAST TWO WEEKS QUOTING FELIPE
GONZALEZ TO THE EFFECT THAT AS LONG AS HE WAS ISSUING
THE INVITATIONS, CASTRO WOULD GET ONE. THAT STATEMENT,
IF ACCURATELY REPORTED WOULD SEEM TO OVERTAKE THE
SUGGESTION IN PARAGRAPH 11 OF REFTEL THAT THE GOS
MIGHT USE THE INVITATION FOR LEVERAGE.
FLANIGAN
USIA FOR AR, P/G, B/CR; DEPT FOR ARA/CCA;
ROME ALSO FOR VATICAN; CINCLANT FOR POLAD
E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL PGOV CU SP
SUBJECT: SPAIN AND CASTRO
REF: MABRID 1246
1. (C) USINT APPRECIATES EMBASSY MADRID'S EXCELLENT
REPORT ON SPAIN'S GROWING DISENCHANTMENT WITH FIDEL
CASTRO. WE FOLLOW THE SPANISH-CUBAN RELATIONSHIP AS
CLOSELY AS WE CAN FROM HAVANA, AND OUR INFORMATION TRACKS
WELL WITH THAT IN REFTEL. WE OFFER A COUPLE OF THOUGHTS
FROM THE HAVANA PERSPECTIVE.
-
2. (C) MORE THAN MOST, THE SPANIARDS HAVE INDULGED IN
WISHFUL THINKING ABOUT FIDEL CASTRO. PERHAPS BECAUSE
OF HIS GALICIAN ROOTS, PERHAPBSECAUSE OF HIS POWERFUL
PERSONALITY, PERHAPS BECAUSE OF HIS CAREFULLY CULTIVATED
ROMANTIC IMAGE AS THE CARIBBEAN DAVID FACING THE NORTH
AMERICAN GOLIATH, THEY HAVE TENDED TO GIVE HIM THE
BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT. THEY ALSO THOUGHT THEY HAD
SPECIAL INFLUENCE. IF THEY EVER DID, THEY NO LONGER
HAVE. CASTRO HAS NOW SHOWN THAT HE CAN BE AS DISMISSIVE
OF FELIPE GONZALEZ AS HE CAN OF ANYONE ELSE WHO OFFERS
HIM ADVISE HE DOES NOT LIKE.
-
3. (C) THE SPANIARDS -- AND FOR THAT MATTER MOST
WEST EUROPEANS -- HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RECOGNIZE CASTRO
FOR WHAT HE IS: A SOMETIMES CHARMING BUT ALWAYS
RUTHLESS DICTATOR. NOW THAT THEY ARE LESS LIKELY TO
RATIONALIZE HIS EGREGIOUS BEHAVIOR (SUCH AS THE
CURRENT CRACKDOWN ON HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVISTS) THEY SEEM
TO BE MORE LIKELY TO OVERREACT TO IT. THEY TEND TO
SEE THE CURRENT SITUATION IN MORE APOCALYPTIC TERMS
THAN THEY MIGHT HAVE IF THEIR VISION HD NOT BEEN
CLOUDED BY ROMANTICISM AND WISHFUL THINKING FOR THREE
DECADES. MOREOVER, MADRID'S PESSIMISM PROBABLY ALSO
REFLECTS THAT OF SPANISH EMBASSY PERSONNEL HERE WHO
SEEM TO TAKE CASTRO'S INTRANSIGENCE AS A PERSONAL
AFFRONT. THEY HAVE ALSO BEEN DISILLUSIONED BY THE
RECENT HARDLINE PRONOUNCEMENTS OF PCC IDEOLOGY CHIEF
CARLOS ALDANA TO WHOM THEY HAD EARLIER IMPUTED THE
ROLE OF INNER CIRCLE LIBERAL.
-
4. (C) ALL OF THIS IS NOT TO SUGGEST THAT THE
CASTRO REGIME IS NOT IN CRISIS. AND IT IS VERY
POSSIBLE, EVEN LIKELY THAT CHANGE, WHEN IT COMES, WILL
BE VIOLENT. HOWEVER WE BELIEVE THAT THE CUBAN REALITY
HAS NOT CHANGED AS MUCH AS THE SPANISH PERCEPTION OF IT.
-
5. (C) FINALLY, WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT CASTRO
WILL BE INVITED TO THE SEVILLE SUMMIT, MWE HAVE SEEN
PRESS REPORTS IN THE PAST TWO WEEKS QUOTING FELIPE
GONZALEZ TO THE EFFECT THAT AS LONG AS HE WAS ISSUING
THE INVITATIONS, CASTRO WOULD GET ONE. THAT STATEMENT,
IF ACCURATELY REPORTED WOULD SEEM TO OVERTAKE THE
SUGGESTION IN PARAGRAPH 11 OF REFTEL THAT THE GOS
MIGHT USE THE INVITATION FOR LEVERAGE.
FLANIGAN