MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD GOES ON THE WAGON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 02299


E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV SOCI JO
SUBJECT: MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD GOES ON THE WAGON


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. SUMMARY. THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD IS PRESSING ITS
SOCIAL AGENDA ONCE AGAIN, BY TRYING TO BAN ALCOHOL.
THE MB PROBABLY KNOWS THAT THIS EFFORT WILL NOT
SUCCEED; MORE LIKELY, THE MOVEMENT IS CHAFING UNDER
THE BIN SHAKER GOVERNMENT'S TIGHT REINS AND WANTS TO
FIGHT BACK, IF ONLY SYMBOLICALLY. THE MB IS NOT
WITHOUT STRENGTH; THE GOVERNMENT KNOWS IT CANNOT
DIRECTLY CONFRONT THE IKHWAN ON "ISLAMIC" ISSUES LIKE
A PROHIBITION ON ALCOHOL. BUT IT CAN -- AND LIKELY
WILL -- STUDY THE ISSUE TO DEATH. THE GOVERNMENT HAS
NO INTENTION OF ALTERING THE ESSENTIALLY MODERATE
SOCIAL IMAGE OF JORDAN. HOWEVER, WHILE IT IS WILLING
TO CONFRONT THE MB ON POLITICAL ISSUES LIKE THE PEACE
PROCESS, IT WILL TAKE A MORE SUBTLE ROUTE ON SOCIAL
MATTERS. END SUMMARY.


3. MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD DEPUTIES PUSHED THROUGH
PARLIAMENT FEBRUARY 15 A MOTION TO ASK THE GOVERNMENT
TO DRAFT LEGISLATION PROHIBITING THE PRODUCTION, SALE
AND DISTRIBUTION OF ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES IN THE
KINGDOM. THE MOVE WAS SUPPORTED BY 34 DEPUTIES
(INCLUDING THE MB AND INDEPENDENT ISLAMISTS),WITH NO
OBJECTIONS AND 20 ABSTENTIONS. SEVERAL DEPUTIES LEFT
THE CHAMBER BEFORE THE VOTE. THE DEBATE ENGENDERED
HARSH WORDS BETWEEN AN ISLAMIST DEPUTY AND TWO
PROMINENT LEFTISTS, ONE OF WHOM RETORTED, "FOR THOSE
WHO WANT AN ISLAMIC STATE, GO FORM ONE SOMEWHERE
ELSE." HOWEVER, EVEN THESE DEPUTIES DID NOT OPPOSE
THE MOTION TO SEND THE ISSUE TO THE GOVERNMENT.


4. DESPITE SIGNIFICANT PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION TO A
BAN ON ALCOHOL, FEW DEPUTIES SPOKE AGAINST THE MOTION/
REFLECTING THE GENERALLY CONSERVATIVE, MUSLIM NATURE
OF SOCIETY HERE. AS ESTABLISHMENT DEPUTY ABD AL-RAUF
AL-RAWABDEH TOLD US FEBRUARY 20, NO DEPUTY WANTS TO BE
SEEN OPPOSING A MEASURE WHICH IS POPULARLY VIEWED AS
AN ISLAMIC DUTY. RAWABDEH SAID HE WAS CERTAIN THAT IF
A POPULAR REFERENDUM ON PROHIBITION WERE HELD IN HIS
CONSTITUENCY OF IRBID, ALCOHOL WOULD BE BANNED. THE
DETRIMENTAL ECONOMIC EFFECTS ON TOURISM AND FOREIGN
INVESTMENT WOULD BE NO MATCH FOR A CITATION FROM THE
QUR'AN.


5. DESPITE HIS OPPOSITION TO PROHIBITION, RAWABDEH
VOTED IN FAVOR OF THE MOTION. HE AND OTHER DEPUTIES
EXPLAINED THAT THE BEST SOLUTION WAS TO ALLOW THE
GOVERNMENT TO STUDY THE MATTER, WHICH IS ALL THE
IKHWAN WERE ASKING. THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF
PROHIBITION WOULD BE INCLUDED IN SUCH A STUDY, AND THE
ISSUE WOULD BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE
EXECUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE BRANCHES UNTIL IT WAS
FORGOTTEN. IN THE MEANTIME, NO MUSLIM DEPUTY WOULD
OPEN HIMSELF UP TO CHARGES OF NOT BEING FAITHFUL TO
HIS RELIGION.

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THE MB'S RATIONALE
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6. THE MB'S ANTI-ALCOHOL MOTION SYMBOLIZES THE GROUP'S
CURRENT PREDICAMENT. THE MB, MORE ASSERTIVE DURING
THE PREVIOUS MASRI GOVERNMENT, HAS BEEN HAMPERED BY
THE MORE POWERFUL BIN SHAKER GOVERNMENT'S WILLINGNESS
TO CLAMP DOWN ON MAJOR ISSUES LIKE THE PEACE PROCESS.
THE GROUP ALSO REALIZES THAT ITS 1989 IMAGE HAS BEEN
TARNISHED BY ITS LACK OF ACCOMPLISHMENTS IN PARLIAMENT
AND IN THE BADRAN GOVERNMENT. THE PARLIAMENTARY
MOTION IS THUS A MEANS OF RE-POLISHING THAT IMAGE
WHILE EMBARRASSING THE GOVERNMENT AND ITS SUPPORTERS.


7. WHETHER ALCOHOL IS ACTUALLY BANNED APPEARS TO BE A
SECONDARY PRIORITY FOR THE MB. ONE EMBASSY CONTACT
WAS TOLD BY THE CHAIRMAN OF THE PARLIAMENTARY
COMMITTEE HANDLING THE ISSUE THAT MB DEPUTIES SEEMED
RELATIVELY DISINTERESTED IN PUSHING THE GOVERNMENT TO
BEGIN ITS STUDY. ALTHOUGH THE PARLIAMENTARIANS HAVE
THE AUTHORITY TO DRAFT THE LEGISLATION THEMSELVES, THE
MB HAS CHOSEN TO ASK THE GOVERNMENT TO DO SO. THIS
WINS THE BROTHERS SOME POINTS WITHOUT HAVING TO TAKE
ON THE RESPONSIBILITY OF DRAFTING A MEASURE WHICH
COULD THEN BE ATTACKED FOR ITS IMPRACTICALITY OR
ECONOMIC INADVISABILITY. INSTEAD, IT CAN SIT AND TAKE
POT SHOTS AT THE GOVERNMENT FOR DELAYING THE
IMPLEMENTATION OF LEGISLATION CONSISTENT WITH THE
QUR'AN. THE MB REMEMBERS HOW MEASURES IT PROPOSED
WHILE IT HELD MINISTRIES UNDER THE BADRAN GOVERNMENT
LARGELY BROUGHT RIDICULE UPON THE MOVEMENT.

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SEGREGATED EDUCATION NEXT?
--------------


8. WE HAVE RECEIVED AN UNCONFIRMED REPORT THAT THE MB
IS ABOUT TO BRING BEFORE PARLIAMENT A REQUEST TO
SEGREGATE MEN AND WOMEN IN UNIVERSITIES. AGAIN, WE
SEE THE MOVE AS A POLITICAL PLOY RATHER THAN A REAL
ATTEMPT TO ACHIEVE THE MB'S SOCIAL AGENDA.

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LONGER-TERM REACTION
--------------


9. THE GOVERNMENT HAS PREDICTABLY STAYED SILENT ON THE
PARLIAMENT'S ALCOHOL MOTION, PRESUMABLY PREFERRING TO
KILL IT BEHIND CLOSED DOORS. HOWEVER, ONE CONTACT
TOLD US FEBRUARY 23 THAT THE PRIME MINISTER WAS NOT
AMUSED BY THE IKHWAN'S TACTICS. HE REPORTEDLY SENT A
MESSAGE BACK TO THE MB THAT THE GROUP SHOULD
UNDERSTAND THAT "JORDAN IS NOT ALGERIA." COMMENT: WE
CANNOT CONFIRM BIN SHAKER'S ALLEGED REMARK, BUT IF HE
DIDN'T SAY IT, HE PROBABLY THOUGHT IT. END COMMENT.


10. THE MB'S PARLIAMENTARY MOVES ARE DESIGNED TO
RESERVE FOR ITS MEMBERS THE ISLAMIC HIGH GROUND.
CENTRISTS HAVE LONG BEEN TELLING US THEY NEED TO PUT
UP CANDIDATES IN THE NEXT ELECTIONS WHO CAN COMPETE
WITH THE IKHWAN IN STANDARDS OF ISLAMIC PIETY. THE
CENTRISTS ARE BEGINNING TO GET A TASTE OF THE KINDS OF
ISSUES THEY WILL BE FACING IN THE NEXT CAMPAIGN.


KEENE