Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
91PRETORIA4652
1991-03-20 13:45:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Pretoria
Cable title:  

THE ANC'S THABO MBEKI AND CHRIS HANI

Tags:  PINR SF ZA 
pdf how-to read a cable
R 201345Z MAR 91
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5924
INFO RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN
AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG
AMCONSUL DURBAN
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 04652 

CAPE TOWN FOR ALSO EMBASSY

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PINR SF ZA
SUBJECT: THE ANC'S THABO MBEKI AND CHRIS HANI

REF: STATE 67418

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 04652

CAPE TOWN FOR ALSO EMBASSY

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PINR SF ZA
SUBJECT: THE ANC'S THABO MBEKI AND CHRIS HANI

REF: STATE 67418


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. WE APPRECIATE OPPORTUNITY TO RESPOND TO QUESTIONS IN
REFTEL. WE SHOULD SAY UP FRONT THAT WE DO NOT INTERACT
MUCH WITH CHRIS HANI, WHO PREFERS TO LEAVE DIPLOMATIC
CONTACTS TO OTHERS. NOR DO WE OFTEN SEE MBEKI AND HANI
TOGETHER, EXCEPT FOR THE OCCASIONAL ASSEMBLAGE OF NEC
MEMBERS ON SOME PUBLIC PLATFORM. WE HAVE NOT HEARD EITHER
MAN REFER IN ANY WAY TO THE OTHER, NOR HAVE WE SEEN THE
TWO FRATERNIZING AT THE HECTIC ANC HEADQUARTERS OR
ELSEWHERE. WE BELIEVE, HOWEVER, THAT BOTH MEN ARE
EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG PERSONALITIES WITHIN THE ORGANIZATION
AND AMONG THE TOP FEW "MOVERS AND SHAKERS" IN THE
LEADERSHIP.


3. IF MBEKI AND HANI (BOTH 48) STILL HAVE A CLOSE
FRIENDSHIP, WE WOULD BE SURPRISED. THOUGH CONTEMPORARIES
FROM TRANSKEI, MANY OTHER FACTORS MILITATE AGAINST A
SMOOTH RELATIONSHIP, NOT LEAST THEIR DIVERGENT FUNCTIONS
WITHIN THE ANC. NOR COULD EITHER OF THEM BE OBLIVIOUS TO
THE INTENSE PUBLIC SPECULATION -- WHICH IS ALREADY GEARING
UP AGAIN IN ANTICIPATION OF THE JUNE ANC ELECTIONS -- OVER
WHICH OF THE TWO WILL ONE DAY MOVE INTO THE PREMIER
POSITION. WHILE THE HANI-MBEKI LINK MAY NOT BE WARM, WE
SUSPECT BOTH MEN REALIZE THE OVERRIDING NEED TO MANAGE THE
RELATIONSHIP, FOR NOW AT LEAST, FOR THE SAKE OF THE
ORGANIZATION.


4. MBEKI IS THE CONSUMMATE DIPLOMAT WHO IS BELIEVED TO BE
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR CHOREOGRAPHING THE OVERALL POLICY
SHIFT AWAY FROM THE ARMED STRUGGLE TO NEGOTIATIONS IN
RECENT YEARS. HE IS RUMORED TO BE AMONG THE FIRST AND
MOST PERSUASIVE NEC MEMBERS TO ARGUE IN FAVOR OF
SUSPENDING ARMED ACTIONS LAST AUGUST. IN MAKING HIS
ARGUMENTS, MBEKI NO DOUBT HAD TO MARSHAL CRITICAL
ASSESSMENTS OF THE EFFICACY OF THE ARMED STRUGGLE. HANI
WOULD LIKELY HAVE VIEWED SUCH REMARKS AS BORDERING ON
CRITICISM OF HIS OWN EFFORTS AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS.


5. WHILE HANI NO DOUBT SUPPORTS OFFICIAL ANC POLICY, HE
SKIRTS VERY CLOSE TO THE EDGES WHEN IT COMES TO THE ROLE
OF UMKHONTO WE SIZWE (MK). MANY OF HIS PUBLIC REMARKS,
WHICH THE SAG CONSIDERS INFLAMMATORY AND CONTRARY TO THE
SPIRIT OF ANC-SAG AGREEMENTS, COULD ONLY COMPLICATE
THABO'S JOB OF MOVING TALKS FORWARD EXPEDITIOUSLY. HANI'S
HANDLING OF THE ARMED ACTIONS WORKING GROUP, WHICH HE
CHAIRED, LEFT MUCH TO BE DESIRED -- THOUGH, GRANTED, HE
HAD A VERY DIFFICULT TASK. HANI FAILED TO SHOW UP FOR

SOME JOINT WORKING GROUP MEETINGS, EVEN AFTER HIS DISPUTED
INDEMNITY STATUS WAS RESOLVED. HIS ANC COLLEAGUES WERE
SOMETIMES AT A LOSS TO EXPLAIN HIS ABSENCE TO US. MBEKI
WOULD REGARD SUCH BEHAVIOR AS IRRESPONSIBLE AND DAMAGING
TO THE OVERALL NEGOTIATIONS STRATEGY.


6. TWO POLITICAL STYLES COULD HARDLY DIFFER MORE THAN
MBEKI'S AND HANI'S. MBEKI TAKES A DISPASSIONATE, REASONED
APPROACH TO ISSUES WHICH HE PRESENTS IN UNDERSTATED
TERMS. HIS AUTHORITY TO DEAL WITH SAG OFFICIALS, CAPTAINS
OF INDUSTRY, WHITE SOUTH AFRICAN OPINION LEADERS, FOREIGN
ENVOYS, ETC. IS SECOND ONLY TO MANDELA'S. WHEN THE DEPUTY
PRESIDENT TRAVELS ABROAD WITHOUT MBEKI, THE LATTER APPEARS
TO BE IN CHARGE OF ISSUES RELATING TO THE NEGOTIATIONS.
MANDELA WILL OFTEN PHONE MBEKI FROM OVERSEAS TO CHECK ON
DEVELOPMENTS.


7. MBEKI DOES NOT DEVOTE MUCH OF HIS TIME TO STUMPING
AMONG THE BLACK POPULATION. HE RARELY FEATURES AT MASS
RALLIES AND DOES NOT, INSOFAR AS WE CAN TELL, ATTEMPT TO
CULTIVATE A CONSTITUENCY IN HIS HOME AREA (TRANSKEI) OR
ANYWHERE ELSE. SOME OBSERVERS BELIEVE MBEKI'S FAILURE TO
BUILD GRASSROOTS POLITICAL SUPPORT DAMAGES HIS APPEAL WITH
THE MASSES AND COULD HURT HIM IN HIS EVENTUAL BID FOR THE
TOP JOB (BUT WE ARE NOT CONVINCED). WE HAVE HEARD LOWER
LEVEL ANC OFFICIALS REMARK THAT MBEKI'S ASSOCIATION WITH
EFFORTS TO SOFTEN THE ANC SANCTIONS POSITION AT THE
DECEMBER CONSULTATIVE CONFERENCE HAS HURT HIM WITH THE
PARTY RANK AND FILE.


8. HANI IS MORE A MAN OF THE PEOPLE. HE GENERALLY STAYS
OUT OF THE NEGOTIATING PROCESS (EXCEPT AS CHAIR OF THE
ARMED ACTIONS WORKING GROUP WHERE HE REPORTEDLY DOES A
GOOD JOB WHEN HE PARTICIPATES). HE ESCHEWS CONTACTS WITH
DIPLOMATS, JOURNALISTS, BUSINESSMEN ETC., YET APPEARS
OFTEN ON PUBLIC PLATFORMS IN THE TOWNSHIPS WEARING
QUASI-COMBAT FATIGUES AND DELIVERING FIERY SPEECHES THAT
AROUSE AND DELIGHT THE AUDIENCE. HANI MAY WELL CULTIVATE
THIS RADICAL IMAGE TO SOME EXTENT, AND WITTINGLY ALLOW
HIMSELF TO BE USED BY THE ANC AS A FOIL AGAINST THE PAC'S
EFFORT TO WIN THE SOUL OF THE TOWNSHIP YOUTH.


9. HANI SPENDS ALOT OF TIME IN TRANSKEI, HIS BIRTHPLACE,
WHERE WITH GENERAL HOLOMISA'S PERMISSION HE RESIDES IN THE
NOW-VACATED PRIME MINISTER'S RESIDENCE AND OFTEN ADDRESSES
CROWDS THERE. HIS REPEATED REFERENCES TO MK AND ITS ROLE
IN KEEPING THE SAG HONEST ENDEAR HIM TO THE MORE RADICAL
ELEMENTS OF THE MOVEMENT. HANI WAS SELECTED TO DELIVER
THE HARD-HITTING GENERAL RESOLUTION AT THE DECEMBER
CONSULTATIVE CONFERENCE, WHERE THE RANK AND FILE PRIVATELY
BLASTED THE LEADERSHIP FOR SUSPENDING THE ARMED STRUGGLE
WITHOUT GETTING MUCH IN RETURN FROM THE SAG.


10. HANI'S UNDERGROUND WORK IN THE COUNTRY, HIS ALLEGED
PARTICIPATION IN COMBAT ALONGSIDE ZAPU AGAINST SMITH'S
RHODESIAN ARMY, AND HIS NARROW ESCAPE FROM MORE THAN ONE
ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT HAVE TAKEN ON LEGENDARY PROPORTIONS
IN THE TOWNSHIPS. AGAIN, MANY OBSERVERS BELIEVE THAT HANI
WOULD TROUNCE MBEKI IF THERE WERE A POPULAR VOTE AMONG ANC
SUPPORTERS. THE MEDIA HERE SOMETIMES SUGGESTS HANI IS
UNABASHEDLY PROMOTING HIS OWN ASCENT TO ANC LEADERSHIP,
BUT HOLOMISA -- WHO KNOWS HANI WELL -- SCOFFS AT
ALLEGATIONS THAT HANI IS POWER-HUNGRY. HOLOMISA BELIEVES
HANI'S APPOINTMENT TO THE SACP'S INTERNAL LEADERSHIP GROUP
VIRTUALLY RULES HIM OUT OF CONTENTION FOR THE TOP ANC
POSITION. THE LEADERSHIP OF THE ANC-SACP ALLIANCE,
HOLOMISA REASONS, WILL NEVER GO TO AN OFFICIAL FROM THE
SMALLER PARTY (I.E., THE SACP),AND HANI MUST HAVE
REALIZED THIS FACT WHEN HE ACCEPTED HIS SACP POSITION LAST
YEAR.


11. MBEKI IS SAID TO HAVE A SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP WITH ANC
PRESIDENT OLIVER TAMBO, WHO MADE THABO HIS POLITICAL
SECRETARY IN 1978. WE HAVE NOT, HOWEVER, OBSERVED ANY
PARTICULAR WARMTH IN THE MBEKI-MANDELA RELATIONSHIP, BUT
CLEARLY MANDELA HAS ENTRUSTED A GREAT DEAL TO THABO. HANI
DOES STAY AT THE MANDELA RESIDENCE WHEN HE IS IN THIS
AREA, BUT WE BELIEVE THIS PRIMARILY REFLECTS THE FACT THAT
HE IS A FAVORITE OF WINNIE'S. HE FREQUENTLY JOINS HER ON
THE PLATFORM AT MASS RALLIES WHERE BOTH ARE ASKED TO
SPEAK, AND HE OFTEN ACCOMPANIES HER TO TRIAL IN
JOHANNESBURG.


12. BOTH HANI AND MBEKI ARE UNIVERSITY EDUCATED WITH AN
INTELLECTUAL BENT AND HAVE UNDERGONE MILITARY TRAINING.
SAG OFFICIALS HAVE REMARKED PARTICULARLY ON HANI'S ABILITY
TO DEBATE THE FINE POINTS OF THE CLASSICS. THE LATEST
"WHO'S WHO" BY SHELAGH GASTROW NOTES THAT HANI ROSE TO THE
ANC'S NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE IN 1974 (AT THE AGE OF
32),WHILE MBEKI WAS APPOINTED IN 1975.


13. IN MANY WAYS, HANI AND MBEKI PERSONIFY AND EPITOMIZE
THE TWO FACES OF THE ANC. ALTHOUGH THERE IS WIDESPREAD
SPECULATION THAT THE TWO ARE AMBITIOUS RIVALS, WE HAVE NO
CONCLUSIVE PROOF THAT THIS IS THE CASE. IF A RIVALRY
EXISTS, NEITHER MAN GAINS FROM PUBLIC KNOWLEDGE OF IT.
FOR NOW, WE WOULD EXPECT HANI AND MBEKI TO CONCENTRATE ON
THEIR RESPECTIVE PORTFOLIOS WHILE KEEPING ANY LEADERSHIP
ASPIRATIONS THEY MAY HAVE CAREFULLY UNDER WRAPS.

SWING.