QADHAFI THREATENS DEBY

S E C R E T NDJAMENA 00848


E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL PGOV CD LY FR
SUBJECT: QADHAFI THREATENS DEBY

REF: (A) NDJAMENA 795, (B) NDJAMENA 800


1. SECRET - ENTIRE TEXT.
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2. SUMMARY: QADHAFI WARNED DEBY DURING LATTER'S RECENT
VISIT TO LIBYA THAT THERE COULD BE NO STABILITY IN CHAD
IF BILATERAL RELATIONS DID NOT REMAIN POSITIVE.
BILATERAL RELATIONS WITH FRANCE ARE GOOD AND DEBY IS
INCREASINGLY AWARE OF THE NEED TO BE FLEXIBLE ON
DOMESTIC POLITICAL ISSUES, ACCORDING TO DEPARTING
FRENCH AMBASSADOR. END SUMMARY.
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3. ALONG WITH MANY OTHER WELL-WISHERS, I WAS AT
N'DJAMENA AIRPORT AT NOON TODAY, FEBRUARY 26, TO SAY
FAREWELL TO DEPARTING FRENCH AMBASSADOR GENDREAU. HE
PULLED ME ASIDE TO NOTE POINTS MADE BY PRESIDENT DEBY
IN THEIR FINAL MEETING EARLIER THE SAME MORNING.
ACCORDING TO GENDREAU, AT THEIR MEETING IN BENGHAZI
LAST WEEK, QADHAFI ESSENTIALLY THREATENED DEBY WITH
DESTABILIZATION IF CHAD DID NOT MAINTAIN FRIENDLY
RELATIONS WITH LIBYA. QADHAFI REFERRED TO THE
INGRATITUDE OF EARLIER CHADIAN LEADERS AND NOT SO
SUBTLY INDICATED TO DEBY THAT HE COULD MAKE TROUBLE IF
DEBY FOLLOWED SUIT. GENDREAU SAID THAT DEBY RESENTED
THIS LANGUAGE AND REMAINS ON GUARD TOWARDS QADHAFI AND
LIBYA.
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4. GENDREAU ALSO COMMENTED ON CHAD-FRANCE RELATIONS
WHICH HE CHARACTERIZED AS GOOD, AND HE ADDED THAT LOCAL
FRENCH BUSINESSMEN, ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER MERCHANTS,
SAY THEY NOTE AN IMPROVED ATTITUDE OF CHADIAN
AUTHORITIES TOWARD THEM. IN RESPONSE TO MY COMMENT
REGARDING DEBY'S NEED TO DEAL WITH EMERGING DOMESTIC
POLITICAL PROBLEMS, GENDREAU SAID THAT THE CHADIAN
PRESIDENT IS INCREASINGLY AWARE OF THE NEED FOR
FLEXIBILITY IN THIS AREA.
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5. COMMENT: THIS WAS A HURRIED CONVERSATION THAT DID
NOT ALLOW TIME TO EXPLORE THE POINTS MADE BY GENDREAU.
AS INDICATED REF (A),THE CHADIANS WHO ACCOMPANIED DEBY
TO BENGHAZI WITH WHOM WE HAVE SPOKEN HAVE INDICATED
THAT DEBY'S SUBSTANTIVE DISCUSSIONS WERE ONLY PARTLY
SUCCESSFUL. IT IS NOT CLEAR, HOWEVER, WHETHER GENDREAU
WAS REFERRING TO QADHAFI'S MENACING SPEECH OR REMARKS
MADE PRIVATELY TO DEBY. IN ANY CASE, GENDREAU'S REPORT
SUGGESTS THAT DEBY AND QADHAFI DID NOT ESTABLISH A GOOD
PERSONAL RELATIONSHIP. WE ARE SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY
GENDREAU'S COMMENTS ON THE MOOD OF FRENCH BUSINESSMEN
HERE SINCE BUSINESS ACTIVITY IS AT A STANDSTILL.
HOWEVER, THE FRENCH GENERALLY PROBABLY FEEL LESS
HOSTILITY FROM THE GOC THAN WHEN HABRE WAS IN POWER.
ON DOMESTIC ISSUES, IT MAY BE THAT BY NOW DEBY IS
RESPONDING TO INTENSIFYING PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERNERS
AND OTHERS TO KEEP HIS PROMISES REGARDING
DEMOCRATIZATION, BUT SO FAR THERE IS LITTLE TANGIBLE
PROOF OF SUCH AN ATTITUDE REPORTED BACK TO US BY OTHER
SOURCES, OTHER THAN DEBY'S OWN INNER CIRCLE. (REF B).
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6. MINIMIZE CONSIDERED.

BOGOSIAN