COLOMBIA'S FARC, ELN GUERRILLAS FLEX

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 02069


SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: PINS PGOV PINR PHUM CO
SUBJECT: COLOMBIA'S FARC, ELN GUERRILLAS FLEX
- THEIR MUSCLES TO START THE NEW YEAR

REF: A) BOGOTA 50, B) 90 BOGOTA 20269,
- C) 90 BOGOTA 19695


1. (C) SUMMARY: THE NEW YEAR HAS SEEN A TREMENDOUS
ESCALATION IN GUERRILLA VIOLENCE BY COLOMBIA'S TWO MAIN
FORCES, THE REVOLUTIONARY ARMED FORCES OF COLOMBIA
(FARC) AND THE NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY (ELN).
PREFERRED TARGETS HAVE BEEN THE SECURITY FORCES AND THE
COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE. THE ATTACKS HAVE
OCCURRED IN MOST OF COLOMBIA'S 23 ADMINISTRATIVE
DEPARTMENTS, AS WELL AS IN THE CAPITAL. THE OFFENSIVE
SHOWS THAT THE MILITARY STRENGTH OF THE FARC AND ELN
REMAINS UNCHECKED BY THE GOVERNMENT. END SUMMARY.

INSURGENTS TURN THEIR TERROR UP SEVERAL NOTCHES
-------------- --

2. (U) BEGINNING NEW YEAR'S EVE, COLOMBIA'S LEFTIST
INSURGENCY GROUPS, THE FARC AND THE ELN SIGNIFICANTLY
ESCALATED THEIR STRIKES. THESE ACTIONS APPARENTLY ARE A
RESPONSE TO THE MILITARY'S DECEMBER 9 ASSAULT ON THE
FARC'S RURAL HEADQUARTERS, THE CASA VERDE (REFTELS).

GUERRILLA FRONTS ON THE OFFENSIVE IN MOST OF COUNTRY
-------------- --------------

3. (U) THE VIOLENCE HAS BEEN ON A NATIONAL SCALE.
FOLLOWING THE CASA VERDE ATTACK, THE FARC AND ELN
ACTIVATED PRACTICALLY ALL OF THEIR FRONTS FOR
SIMULTANEOUS ATTACKS OVER A WIDE GEOGRAPHIC AREA. THERE
HAS BEEN NO SINGLE FOCAL POINT OR AREA FOR THE VIOLENCE;
FEW OF THE COUNTRY'S 23 DEPARTMENTS HAVE BEEN SPARED.

THE CITIES AREN'T SPARED, NOT EVEN THE CAPITAL
-------------- -

4. (C) GUERRILLAS HAVE INDICATED LIMITED URBAN GUERRILLA
CAPABILITY. ATTACKS HAVE OCCURRED IN OR NEAR BOGOTA,
MEDELLIN, CARTAGENA, SANTA MARTA AND OTHER CITIES.
WITHIN A THE SPACE OF ONE-HALF HOUR LATE JANUARY 3,
TERRORISTS STRUCK THREE NEIGHORHOOD POLICE POSTS IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF BOGOTA, KILLING ONE OFFICER AND
WOUNDING ANOTHER. POLICE ATTRIBUTED THE ATTACKS TO THE
FARC.

THE NATIONAL POLICE ARE HIT HARD...
--------------

5. (C) A FAVORITE GUERRILLA TARGET HAS BEEN THE NATIONAL
POLICE. IN THE WORST SUCH ATTACK, ABOUT 50 GUERRILLAS
AMBUSHED A POLICE TRUCK JANUARY 3 ON A HIGHWAY NEAR THE
TOWN OF CIENAGA IN NORMALLY PEACEFUL MAGDALENA
DEPARTMENT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST, KILLING A DOZEN POLICE
AND WOUNDING FOUR. THE GUERRILLAS HAVE TARGETED THE
POLICE, ACCORDING TO MID-LEVEL ARMY OFFICIALS, BECAUSE
THEY ARE SOFT TARGETS BECAUSE OF THEIR SMALL UNIT SIZES,
LACK OF HEAVY ARMAMENTS, INSUFFICIENT ANTI-TERRORIST
TRAINING, ISOLATED TOWN GARRISONS AND POOR COMMUNICATIONS.

...BUT SO IS THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMY
--------------

6. (C) THE GUERRILLAS ALSO APPEAR INTENT ON DAMAGING THE
COUNTRY'S ECONOMY. GUERRILLAS HAVE DYNAMITED ROAD AND
RAILROAD BRIDGES, BURNED TRUCKS, BUSES AND AIRPLANES,
DESTROYED RIVER CRAFT, AND BLOWN UP ELECTRICITY,
TELEPHONE, RADIO AND TELEVISION SUBSTATIONS, TOWERS AND
LINES.

ECOPETROL OIL PIPELINES SABOTAGED...
--------------

7. (U) THE PETROLEUM SECTOR, HOWEVER, HAS SUFFERED THE
GREATEST DAMAGE. GUERRILLAS, PRINCIPALLY THE ELN,
SEVERAL TIMES IN JANUARY HIT AN OLD ENEMY, PIPELINES OF
THE STATE-OWNED COLOMBIAN PETROLEUM COMPANY
(ECOPETROL). ECOPETROL RELEASED A REPORT IN EARLY
JANUARY SHOWING THAT THE ELN SABOTAGED THEIR
800-KILOMETER CANO LIMON-COVENAS PIPELINE 134 TIMES
SINCE THE ATTACKS BEGAN IN 1986 THROUGH 1990. IN THE
FIRST MONTH OF 1991, HOWEVER, ECOPETROL AVERAGED A
GUERRILLA SABOTAGE-ATTACK PER DAY. THE COMPANY
ANNOUNCED JANUARY 28 (BOGOTA 1500) THAT ITS OIL
PIPELINES AND OTHER FACILITIES HAD SUFFERED 28 GUERRILLA
ATTACKS SINCE JANUARY 1. TOTAL MONETARY LOSSES WERE
ESTIMATED AT WELL OVER USDOL 100 MILLION, INCLUDING
DAMAGE TO EQUIPMENT, SPILLED CRUDE AND PRODUCTION DELAYS.

...AT A COST TO THE ENVIRONMENT
--------------

8. (U) ASIDE FROM THE ECONOMIC LOSSES, THE PIPELINE
ATTACKS HAVE DAMAGED THE ENVIRONMENT. ACCORDING TO
ECOPETROL, THE SPILLAGE OF CRUDE DUE TO GUERRILLA
SABOTAGE ADVERSELY HAS AFFECTED THE COUNTRY'S FLORA AND
FAUNA. ACCORDING TO ECOPETROL STATISTICS, OVER THE
YEARS TERRORISM HAS BATHED THE COUNTRY'S ECOLOGICAL
RESERVES IN 650,000 BARRELS OF CRUDE. TWO GUERRILLA
ATTACKS JANUARY 23 AGAINST THE CANO-LIMON PIPELINE IN
NORTE DE SANTANDER DEPARTMENT SPILLED 15,000 BARRELS OF
CRUDE, POLLUTING TWO RIVERS THAT PROVIDE WATER FOR
IRRIGATION IN THE REGION (BOGOTA 1229). THE ELN, WHO
HISTORICALLY HAS BEEN THE GROUP TARGETING PIPELINES, HAS
A RECORD OF ECOLOGICAL TERRORISM, HAVING RESORTED TO
POISONING CREEKS TO KILL FISH AND TORCHING FORESTS.

FARC AND ELN -- PARTNERS IN CRIME
--------------

9. (C) THERE IS CONSIDERABLE EVIDENCE OF INCREASED
FARC/ELN COOPERATION. THOUGH THE TWO HAVE LONG BEEN
SUPPOSEDLY UNITED UNDER THE SIMON BOLIVAR GUERRILLA
COORDINATOR UMBRELLA, THERE WAS LITTLE REAL COORDINATED
FIELD ACTIVITY. THAT IS NOW CHANGING, THOUGH THE ELN
MAY HAVE CREDITED THE FARC WITH SOME OF ITS OWN
ASSAULTS, IN AN ATTEMPT TO CREATE THE APPEARANCE OF A
POTENT FARC PRESENCE IN AREAS WHERE THE FARC HAD BEEN
UNABLE TO MOUNT ATTACKS. SOME ELN ASSAULTS ON THE
CANO-LIMON PIPELINE WERE CLAIMED ON BEHALF OF THE FARC.

ATTACKS FOLLOW A PATTERN
--------------

10. (C) THERE HAS BEEN A PATTERN TO THE TACTICS USED BY
THE GUERRILLAS. GENERALLY, ATTACKS HAVE BEEN
PERPETRATED BY SMALL GROUPS -- SOMETIMES AS SMALL AS
FOUR GUERRILLAS. THE GUERRILLAS HAVE STAGED LOW-RISK,
HIT-AND-RUN ATTACKS, MAKING MAXIMUM USE OF SURPRISE,
AMBUSHING POLICE OR ARMY PATROLS OR SABOTAGING THE
ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE. THE TERRORIST ATTACKS,
ALTHOUGH AT TIMES AIMED AT PRE-DETERMINED OBJECTIVES,
BECAME INCREASINGLY INDISCRIMINATE.

COMMENT:
--------------

11. (C) THE GUERRILLAS' STRATEGY HAS BEEN TO DEMONSTRATE
THAT THEY ARE NOT DEFEATED MILITARILY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPECULATION THAT THE FARC WANTS TO LAY DOWN
ITS ARMS AND IS TRYING TO BETTER ITS NEGOTIATING
POSITION BY HITTING THE GOVERNMENT WHERE IT HURTS--IN
THE POCKETBOOKS OF THOSE WHO EARN FOREIGN EXCHANGE. THE
OFFENSIVE INDICATES THAT THE FARC AND ELN, UNLIKE THE
M-19 WHEN IT LAID DOWN ARMS, ARE NOT YET BEATEN. THE
FARC MAY NOT BE ABLE TO HIT THE HARD MILITARY TARGETS IT
HIT A FEW YEARS AGO OR IT MAY BE THAT IT DOES NOT WANT
TO. IT DOES, HOWEVER, PACK A MILITARY PUNCH THAT THE
COLOMBIAN SECURITY FORCES ARE INCAPABLE OF CHECKING. IF
THE INSURGENTS CAN SUSTAIN THEIR JANUARY LEVEL OF
VIOLENCE OVER THE COMING MONTHS, THE COUNTRY MAY FIND
ITSELF IN SERIOUS ECONOMIC STRAITS. END COMMENT.


MCNAMARA