IRAQ IS NOT BLINKING

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 244793


FOLLOWING BAGHDAD 04258 DTD JULY 26, 1990 SENT ACTION
STATE, INFO KUWAIT, ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE, BEING REPEATED
FOR YOUR INFO:

QUOTE:

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 04258

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL EPET KU US IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQ IS NOT BLINKING

REF: BAGHDAD 4210


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. SUMMARY: IT IS IRAQI "RIGHTS," INCLUDING TO
RUMAYLA OIL, WHICH PUSHES VISITING MEDIA FOR VISITING
MUBARAK INTO SECOND PLACE IN THE JULY 24
HEADLINES. KUWAITI LEADERS ARE URGED TO OUST
THEIR FOREIGN MINISTER FOR PRO-U.S. POLICIES
AND THE UAE IS OFFICIALLY LABELED A
"CONSPIRATOR" WITH THE U.S. AGAINST THE ARABS.
IRAQ INSERTS IN GENEVA ITS VIEW THAT OIL SHOULD
BE "NOT LESS THAN USD 25" AND CLAIMS THE SAG AGREES.
END SUMMARY.


3. THE GOVERNMENT-DIRECTED IRAQI PRESS ON
JULY 25 GAVE EGYPTIAN PRESIDENT MUBARAK'S
THREE-HOUR VISIT THE PREVIOUS DAY SMALL
HEADLINES, A FRONT PAGE PHOTO, AN UNINFORMATIVE
REPORT ON INSIDE PAGES, AND NO EDITORIAL COMMENT.
ARAB LEAGUE SYG KLIBI'S PRESENCE RECEIVED
VIRTUALLY NO PRESS ATTENTION.


4. BY CONTRAST, THE PRESS GAVE A RED BANNER TO
FONMIN TARIQ AZIZ' ASSERTION (IN HIS SECOND
LETTER TO ARAB LEAGUE SYG--REFTEL) THAT THE
RUMAYLA OIL FIELD IS IRAQI "BY NAME AND TERRITORY."
(WE PRESUME THIS WAS SADDAM'S MESSAGE TO MUBARAK.)
TEXT OF AZIZ' JULY 21 LETTER (FBIS JN2407093790)
AND THAT OF DEPUTY PRIMIN SA'DUN HAMMADI TO KUWAITI
RULER (FBIS JN2407102990) ARE BOTH PRINTED IN FULL IN
ARABIC AND ENGLISH NEWSPAPERS, AND ARE SUMMARIZED
IN REFTEL.


5. THE GOI IS CONTINUING ITS PUBLIC ATTACK ON
KUWAIT AND ITS RULERS. FONMIN AZIZ, IN A
STATEMENT TO REPORTERS JULY 24, REJECTFD THE GOK'S
PROPOSAL THAT THE BORDER DISPUTE GO TO
ARBITRATION AND SUGGESTED INSTEAD THAT THE PROBLEM
BE SOLVED BILATERALLY. FURTHER, HE CALLED ON THE
KUWAITI LEADERSHIP TO EXPEL THE "CIRCLES OF
CONSPIRACY" (I.E., THOSE WHO ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR
OVERPRODUCTION AND FOR THE PRO-U.S. POLICY),
DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM THE CONSPIRACY AND EXPEL
CONSPIRATORS FROM DECISION MAKING POSITIONS (A
TRANSPARENT CALL FOR THE REMOVAL OF KUWAITI FONMIN
SABAHAL-AHMAD).


6. EDITORIALS ALL CONCENTRATE ON ATTACKING KUWAIT
AND ITS RULERS, REITERATING THE GOI'S EARLIER
CLAIMS AND ADDING A FEW NEW TWISTS. "ATH-THAWRA'S"
PAGE ONE MAIN EDITORIAL ACCUSES THE KUWAITI RULERS
OF BEING "LIARS, THIEVES AND U-S. AGENTS." ITS
OTHER FRONT PAGE EDITORIAL, BY A LIBYAN, CHARGES
THAT THE KUWAITIS HAVE ALWAYS BEEN AGAINST
PAN-ARABISM, ALIGNED WITH FOREIGNERS AND IMPORTED
ASIAN WORKERS, THEREBY EXPELLING PALESTINIANS
AND EGYPTIANS. A PAGE TWO EDITORIAL CLAIMS THAT
THE ONLY SOLIDARITY THE KUWAITIS UNDERSTAND IS
THAT OF AMASSING MONEY IN SWISS BANK ACCOUNTS
THROUGH A CONSPIRACY AGAINST THE ARAB NATTON.

U.S. NAVAL ACTIVITY
--------------


7. ALL PAPERS HIGHLIGHT OFFICIAL GOI SPOKESMAN'S
COMMENTS ON THE PENTAGON STATEMENT THAT THE U.S.
AND UAE NAVIES ARE UNDERTAKING A JOINT OPERATION.
"THE CONSPIRATORS ARE SEARCHING FOR PRETEXTS AND
COVERS TO MAKE THE PRESENCE OF THE U.S. FLEET ON
ACCEPTABLE FACT IN THE REGION" IS ONE HEADLINE.
"THE CONSPIRATORS HAVE BEEN EXPOSED PUBLICLY FOR
CONSPIRING AGAINST IRAQ AND THE ARAB NATION" RUNS
A SUB-HEADLINE. (COMMENT: IT IS NOT CLEAR WHO
THE "SPOKESMAN" WAS, WHETHER FROM THE MFA,
PRESIDENCY OR MINDEF.)

OIL USD 25 A BARREL
--------------


8. JULY 25 PRESS ALSO HEADLINES PRESS CONFERENCE
OF IRAQI OILMIN SHALABI ON HIS DEPARTURE TO ATTEND
THE OPEC MEETING IN GENEVA- SHALABI REPORTEDLY SAID
THE OPEC MEMBERS FEEL THE NEED TO IMMEDIATELY
TAKE MEASURES TO INCREASE THE PRICE OF OIL. THE
MAJORITY SUPPORT IRAQ'S POSITION. PRICES SHOULD BE
"NOT LESS THAN USD 25 PER BARREL THIS YEAR," SHALABI
TOLD REPORTERS, AND WHEN THEY REACH THAT LEVEL, OPEC
SHOULD DISCUSS CEILINGS AND QUOTAS SO THAT THE PRICE
WILL RISE TO USD 30. THE IRAQI PRESS ALSO CLAIMS
THAT SAUDI ARABIA, LIBYA AND GABON HAVE PUBLICLY
SUPPORTED IRAQ'S POSITION. U/S HAMDUN TOLD US JULY 25
THAT THE SAUDIS WANT USD 25, ALTHOUGH IT WAS
INR'S UNDERSTANDING ON JULY 24 THAT SAG BELIEVES
USD 25 IS TOO HIGH (STATE 242085).

SADDAM LOBBIES THE ARAB LEAGUE
--------------


9. THE MEDIA JULY 25 ALSO HEADLINED MISSIONS BY
IRIRAQI CABINET MINISTERS BEARING MESSAGES FROM
SADDAM TO FELLOW ARAB LEAGUE MEMBERS. THE
MINISTER OF THE INTERIOR WENT TO BAHRAIN, QATAR
AND OMAN. (AN OMANI COLLEAGUE TELLS US THE GOI
DID NOT/NOT BOTHER TO INFORM HIS EMBASSY THAT A
SPECIAL EMISSARY WAS ON HIS WAY TO MUSCAT.) THE
MINISTER OF TRANSPORT HEADED FOR MOROCCO,
MAURITANIA, TUNISIA (AND THE PRO). WE PRESUME
THE GOI DECIDED IT WAS UNNECESSARY TO SEND AN
EMISSARY TO LIBYA BECAUSE LIBYA HAS PUBLICLY
SUPPORTED IRAQ'S POSITION ON OIL PRICING AND
KUWAIT. AN ALGERIAN EMBASSY OFFICIAL WAS NOT
SURPRISED THE GOI DID NOT SEND ANYONE TO ALGIERS:
THE GOA ALSO WANTS AN OIL PRICE RISE. AND THE
MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE WAS SENT TO SUDAN,
SOMALIA AND DJIBOUTI. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SYRIA AND LEBANON, THE GOI HAS BEEN IN CONTACT
WITH ALL OTHER AL MEMBERS.

SOVIET VISITOR
--------------


10. PRESS ALSO COVERS--GIVING FRONT PAGE PHOTO--TO
CALL BY SOVIET MINISTER OF MILITARY INDUSTRIALIZATION
ON SADDAM. AGAIN, NO DETAILS WERE GIVEN OF THE
DISCUSSION. WE NOTE THAT SADDAM HAD CHANGED FROM
HIS FRENCH-TAILORED CIVILIAN SUIT, IN WHICH HE MET
MUBARAK, BACK INTO BA'TH PARTY UNIFORM TO MEET THE
RUSSIAN. HUSAYN KAMIL, MINISTER OF INDUSTRY AND
MILITARY INDUSTRIALIZATION, ALSO ATTENDED THE MEETING.
FONMIN AZIZ DID NOT.

COMMENT
--------------


11. ON THE EVE OF THE OPEC MEETING, THE GOI IS
DEFINITELY NOT/NOT BLINKING. RATHER, THE TONE OF
ITS ATTACK ON KUWAIT IS EVEN SHRILLER AND MORE
PERSONAL AGAINST THE KUWAITI RULING FAMILY THAN
EVER BEFORE. EDITORIALS ARE BEGINNING TO PLAY
TO ARAFAT'S ANGER WITH THE KUWAITIS FOR EXPELLING
PALESTINIANS AND FONMIN AZIZ' COMMENT ABOUT THE
EXPELLING OF THE CONSPIRATORS IS AN OFFICIAL ATTACK
ON THE KUWAITI ROYAL FAMILY. THE GOI IS NOW TRYING
TO STIR UP THE PALESTINIANS AGAINST THE KUWAITIS
AND APPEALING TO ARAB NATIONALIST ELEMENTS AGAINST
THEIR RULERS.

GLASPIE
UNQUOTE

EAGLEBURGER