Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
90STATE175914
1990-05-31 23:20:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Secretary of State
Cable title:  

BAGHDAD SUMMIT: THE MORNING AFTER

Tags:  AL IZ PREL XF 
pdf how-to read a cable
O 312320Z MAY 90
FM SECSTATE WASHDC
TO AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 175914 

PASS TO AMBASSADOR DAVID NEWTON; ALSO FOR USEC

FOLLOWING BAGHDAD 03168 DATED MAY 31 SENT ACTION
SECSTATE INFO ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PARIS BEING
REPEATED FOR YOUR INFORMATION

QUOTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 03168

PARIS FOR ROSENBLATT

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL, AL, XF, IZ
SUBJECT: BAGHDAD SUMMIT: THE MORNING AFTER

REF: BAGHDAD 3145

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 175914

PASS TO AMBASSADOR DAVID NEWTON; ALSO FOR USEC

FOLLOWING BAGHDAD 03168 DATED MAY 31 SENT ACTION
SECSTATE INFO ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PARIS BEING
REPEATED FOR YOUR INFORMATION

QUOTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 03168

PARIS FOR ROSENBLATT

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL, AL, XF, IZ
SUBJECT: BAGHDAD SUMMIT: THE MORNING AFTER

REF: BAGHDAD 3145

1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.

2. SUMMARY: THE SUMMIT, IN OUR VIEW, LEAVES ARAB
POLITICS ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE. ARAFAT, UNDER SEVERE
INTERNAL PLO PRESSURE TO JUSTIFY HIS PEACE PROCESS
APPROACH, SEEMED DRIVEN BY A SENSE OF USG BAD FAITH.
THE SAUDIS WERE A SOLID ROCK OF GOOD SENSE AND THE
EGYPTIANS, THOUGH THEY LOST SOME BATTLES ON
COMMUNIQUE RHETORIC, LOST NO PRESTIGE TO SADDAM. AS
AN EXPONENT OF LOWEST COMMON DENOMINATOR ARAB FEARS
AND ASPIRATIONS, SADDAM TOOK A STEP FORWARD. BUT IT
WAS THE ROILING EVENTS AROUND ARAFAT--NOT IRAQI
BLUSTERING--THAT PUT THE HEAT ON MUBARAK TO SHOW THAT
MODERATION CAN AND WILL WORK. END SUMMARY.

3. ON THIS THURSDAY HOLIDAY MORNING AFTER THE BAGHDAD
SUMMIT, THERE ARE FEW ARAB DIPLOMATS AVAILABLE WITH
WHOM WE CAN COMPARE NOTES. THE FOLLOWING IS, THERE-
FORE, CHIEFLY OUR OWN THOUGHTS AND NOTES ON THE
EVENTS AND SIGNIFICANCE OF THE DEBATES OF THE PAST
THREE DAYS.

A SUCCESSFUL SUMMIT?
--------------

4. A SENIOR ARAB LEAGUE SECRETARIAT SOURCE RESOLUTELY
ASSERTED PLEASURE WITH WHAT HE CALLED A "MODERATE"
OUTCOME. THE ADVISOR TO KLIBI SAID MANY
DELEGATES HAD BEEN FEARFUL OF A BAGHDAD SUMMIT:
"WE DID NOT KNOW WHAT SORT OF ADVENTURE SADDAM
HUSSEIN WOULD LEAD US INTO"" IN FACT, SAID THIS
ARAB DIPLOMAT, THE SECRETARIAT FOUND THAT SADDAM
OFTEN ACTED AS AN ARBITER, TAKING HIS ROLE AS HOST
AND CHAIRMAN SERIOUSLY. AN EGYPTIAN SOURCE ALSO TOLD
US THAT THE IRAQI BULLDOZER HAS DRIVEN CHIEFLY BY
TARIQ AZIZ IN THE FOREIGN MINISTERS' DRAFTING
SESSIONS, WHERE REPORTEDLY THE EGYPTIAN FOREIGN
MINISTER TOLD HIM AND PLO "FONMIN" QADDUMI MORE
THAN ONCE THAT HE WOULD NOT PUT UP WITH THEIR
RUDENESS.

5. WE FIND IT CURIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE
RESULTS OF THIS SUMMIT FROM THE U.S. POINT OF
VIEW. POLITICALLY, IT WOULD APPEAR NONE OF THE
PRINCIPAL ARAB PROTAGONISTS ACHIEVED ANYTHING
LIKE THEIR MAXIMUM GOALS, YET NONE WAS EMBARRASSED
BY INABILITY TO HOLD A MINIMUM LINE. THE EXCEPTION
TO THIS COULD BE KING HUSSEI
N--WE SIMPLY DO NOT
YET KNOW IF HE HAS RECEIVED FIRM PLEDGES OF FINANCIAL
SUPPORT.

6. WHILE WE SEE UNWELCOME LANGUAGE IN THE
COMMUNIQUE, PARTICULARLY ON THE PEACE PROCESS
(E.G., THE PERENNIAL CALL FOR AN INTERNATIONAL
CONFERENCE) AND ON WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, WE
CAN SEE NOTHING WHICH HEMS IN MOVEMENT IN A
MODERATE DIRECTION, SHOULD THE MODERATES WISH
TO CONTINUE THEIR EFFORTS. WHILE IT IS TRUE THAT,
AS A BRITISH JOURNALIST HAS WRITTEN, THE SUMMIT
ITSELF WAS IN A SENSE A "CRY OF PAIN" FROM THE
PALESTINIANS, THE EMOTIONAL CONTEXT OF EVENTS DID
NOT UPSET THE PEACE PROCESS APPLE CART.

NO LETTER FOR BUSH/GORBACHEV
--------------

7. THE VIRTUAL STALEMATE BETWEEN EGYPTIANS AND
SAUDIS VERSUS THE IRAQIS AND LIBYANS HAD NO
MORE EMBARRASSINGLY PUBLIC FAILURE THAN THE
INABILITY TO AGREE ON THE LETTER WHICH THE
IRAQI MEDIA IN PARTICULAR ANNOUNCED WOULD BE A
PRIMARY AIM OF THE MEETING. INABILITY TO AGREE ON EVEN
A CLEAR STATEMENT OF VIEWS CONCERNING THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT MIDDLE EAST EVENT IN MANY DECADES,
I.E., SOVIET-JEWISH EMIGRATION, WILL BE SEEN BY
THE WEST AS A BLACK EYE FOR "ARAB UNITY." BUT
FROM OUR VIEWPOINT IT WOULD APPEAR TO BE A
DEMONSTRATION THAT SOME ARAB LEADERS ARE AT LAST
WILLING TO FACE FACTS, AND FAHD WAS THE BEST
EXAMPLE OF ALL.


FAHD THE STATESMAN
--------------

8. AS EMBASSY RIYADH SUGGESTED, BY ALL ACCOUNTS THE
SAUDIS HAVE BEEN TOUGH AND ACTIVE SINCE FOREIGN
MINISTER SAUD ARRIVED HERE MAY 22. MAINTAINING THE
PENINSULAR BEDOUIN GOOD TASTE OF NOT WASHING
LAUNDRY IN PUBLIC, BOTH FAHD AND SAUD WERE CLEAR
AND DETERMINED IN THE PRIVATE SESSIONS.

SADDAM: SATISFIED
--------------

9. SADDAM WANTED TO CHANGE ARAB STRATEGY. UNTIL THE
LAST HOURS OF THE SUMMIT, HE TRIED TO DO SO, IN-
CLUDING BY USING ALL THE FORCES OF HIS MEDIA. HE
FAILED. IT IS CHIEFLY BECAUSE OF HIS EFFORTS THAT
WE SEE OBJECTIONABLE PHRASEOLOGY IN THE COMMUNIQUE,
BUT THOSE WORDS DO NOT CHANGE ARAB STRATEGY. ON
THE OTHER HAND, WE THINK THAT HE HAS ACHIEVED ANOTHER
AIM, FURTHER IMPROVING HIS IMAGE, AS A JOURNALIST
HAS SAID, MOVING FROM "WARRIOR" TO "WARRIOR STATES-
MAN." HE HAS MADE GREAT STRIDES IN CREATING A
CONSTITUENCY OF THOSE ARABS, INCLUDING PALESTINIANS,
DEEPLY FRUSTRATED BY LACK OF PROGRESS IN THE PEACE
PROCESS. AS LONG AS THE MODERATE EGYPT/USG APPRAOCH
DOES NOT WORK, THE NATURAL CONSTITUENCY FOR SADDAM'S
LOWEST COMMON DENOMINATOR POPULISM WILL GROW.

ARAFAT--THE HOT SEAT
--------------

10. WE TAKE SERIOUSLY THE UNANIMOUS REPORTS OF
ARAFAT'S DEEP CONCERN DURING THE SUMMIT ABOUT HIS OWN
ABILITY TO HOLD HIS MAINSTREAM IN THE MODERATE
CURRENT. AN EMOTIONAL MAN, HE WAS, BY ALL ACCOUNTS,
SHAKEN BY HIS GENEVA EXPERIENCE (THE PERCEPTION OF
U.S. "BETRAYAL"). HE DID SEEM TO SPEND MORE TIME
COORDINATING WITH SADDAM THAN WITH MUBARAK, AND HAD A
TWO-HOUR MEETING AT THE END (REPORTEDLY ONE-ON-ONE),
WITH KING HUSAYN). WE BELIEVE WE HAVE CONFIRMED IT
WAS ARAFAT WHO PUSHED (UNSUCCESSFULLY) FOR CREATION
OF A JOINT ARAB DEFENSE FORCE, WHICH SUGGESTS A
PERCEIVED NEED TO PLAY TO HIS RADICAL WING. HIS
SPEECH IN OPEN SESSION, EVEN THOUGH EMOTIONALLY
DELIVERED, WAS AN EFFECTIVE AND ELOQUENT DESCRIPTION
OF PALESTINIAN PAIN AND CONFUSION.

QADHAFI'S ACTIVITIES
--------------

11. QADHAFI REMAINED SILENT THROUGHOUT THE PUBLIC
SESSIONS OF THE SUMMIT, POINTEDLY APPLAUDING ANY
ANTI-AMERICAN REMARKS. HE SPOKE ONLY ON THE FINAL
DAY. WHAT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A PRO FORMA STATEMENT
CONGRATULATING THE SUMMIT AND SADDAM, TURNED INTO A
RAMBLING SPEECH. INTER ALIA, HE CHARGED THAT THE
U.S. F-111'S, THE PLANES SENT TO "KILL" HIM AND HIS
CHILDREN, HAD BEEN MOVED FROM TURKEY TO IRAQ'S
BORDERS TO FRIGHTEN IRAQ. HE CLAIMED: "WE WILL
DESTROY THE JEWS;" PUTTING JEWS IN THE OCCUPIED
TERRITORIES WAS "PUTTING THEM IN A CEMETERY" RATHER
THAN THE PROMISED LAND. HIS REMARKS WERE SO
DESPICABLE THAT SADDAM OSTENTATIOUSLY DISASSOCIATED
HIMSELF AND THE SUMMIT FROM THEM.

12. WE CAN PROVIDE TENUOUS CONFIRMATION OF THE
RUMORS (DAMASCUS 3325) THAT QADHAFI FROM DAMASCUS
SENT AN ENVOY TO SADDAM IN A LAST MINUTE ATTEMPT TO
RECONCILE SADDAM AND ASAD. ACCORDING TO A GULF
DIPLOMAT, THE PILOT OF THE PLANE CARRYING HIS
COUNTRY'S DELEGATION TO BAGHDAD ON MAY 27 HEARD IRAQI
CONTROLLERS TALKING WITH THE PILOT OF A LIBYAN PLANE
ENROUTE FROM DAMASCUS TO BAGHDAD, TWENTY-FOUR HOURS
BEFORE QADHAFI HIMSELF ARRIVED FOR THE SUMMIT.

U.S. "MEMORANDUM"
--------------

13. THE TALKING POINTS FOR NEA AMBASSADORS HAVE
ENTERED HISTORY AS A MEMORANDUM FROM THE USG TO THE
AL. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, AL SYG KLIBI HAS
BEEN INSTRUCTED TO ADMONISH THE "U.S. AMBASSADOR"
ABOUT THIS INTERFERENCE IN ARAB AFFAIRS.

14. WE WERE STRUCK BY THE JORDAN TIMES STORY THAT
OUR MEMORANDUM "DEMANDED" THAT IRAQ SIGN ON TO A
CHEMICAL WEAPONS BAN WITHOUT REGARD TO ISRAEL'S
NONADHERENCE TO THE NPT. THAT REPORT CAME FROM A
JOURNALIST CLOSE TO THE PLO (JN2905093290) AND MAY
REFLECT A MORE AND MORE JAUNDICED PLO VIEW OF THE
EQUITY OF THE USG APPROACH TO MIDDLE EAST ISSUES.

NEXT STEPS
--------------

15. FOR THE RECORD, FOLLOWING ARE THE DECISIONS THE
SUMMIT TOOK THAT REQUIRE FOLLOW-UP ACTION:

--REGULAR SUMMITS WILL OCCUR ANNUALLY, WITH THE NEXT
IN CAIRO IN NOVEMBER 1990. (COMMENT: IRAQ HAS
REPEATEDLY ADVOCATED THE NEED FOR ANNUAL AL SUMMITS.
WITH THE RETURN OF AL HEADQUARTERS TO CAIRO, THE
ISSUE OF WHERE THOSE MEETINGS CAN BE HELD HAS BEEN
SOLVED. AS WE UNDERSTAND IT FROM THE EGYPTIAN
EMBASSY, IF NO COUNTRY VOLUNTEERS TO HOST A SUMMIT,
THE AL WILL DO SO, WITH EGYPT FORMALLY DOING THE
INVITING.)

--FOREIGN, ECONOMIC AND FINANCE MINISTERS TO MEET
WITHIN TWO MONTHS TO DISCUSS JEWISH EMIGRATION, THE
ARAB STANCE TOWARD INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC BLOCS AND
ENCOURAGING OF INVESTMENT IN ARAB COUNTRIES. THEY
ARE TO MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE NEXT SUMMIT.

--BILATERAL NEGOTIATIONS WITH JORDAN ON ASSISTANCE.

--ATC TO FOLLOW UP IMPLEMENTATION OF THE TA'IF
AGREEMENT.

--ESTABLISHMENT OF AN INTERNATIONAL FUND TO ASSIST
LEBANON.

--FOREIGN MINISTERS TO COMPLETE AMENDMENTS TO THE AL
CHARTER AND SUBMIT THEM TO THE NEXT SUMMIT (MAJORITY
RULE REVISITED?).

--ACTION AGAINST ANY STATE RECOGNIZING JERUSALEM AS
THE CAPITAL OF ISRAEL.

--EFFORTS TO PREVENT REPEAL OF UNGA RSOLUTION 3379,
"ZIONISM AS RACISM."
-
NO RESOLUTIONS
--------------

16. AT THIS SUMMIT, WE ARE TOLD, THERE WERE NO
RESOLUTIONS, JUST THE COMMUNIQUE.

IRAQI MEDIA REACTION
--------------

17. IRAQ'S GOVERNMENT-DIRECTED MEDIA DID NOT SEEM TO
SUPPRESS ANY PUBLIC STATEMENT OR EVENT. ALL OPEN
SESSION SPEECHES BY SUMMIT PARTICIPANTS WERE PRINTED
IN FULL IN THE LOCAL PRESS. THE GOI'S PR MACHINERY
HAD NO COMMENT ON THE SUMMIT MAY 31 OTHER THAN TO
HAIL IT AS A GREAT SUCCESS. IRAQI TV PROVIDED FULL
COVERAGE OF "OPEN" SESSIONS, ALBEIT WITH A TWO-HOUR
DELAY, AND DID NOT EDIT OUT UNEXPECTED INTIMATE
MOMENTS (E.G., MUBARAK HARANGUING SADDAM IN THE HALL;
QADHAFI SLICKING BACK HIS HAIR PRIOR TO A GRAND
ENTRANCE).

FOR KHARTOUM AND MOGADISHU
--------------

18. WE APOLOGIZE THAT BECAUSE WE ARE SO SHORT-HANDED
WE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO TRANSLATE SUMMIT SPEECHES OF
YOUR PRESIDENTS, BUT WE WILL POUCH ARABIC VERSIONS
ASAP.

GLASPIE
UNQUOTE

BAKER