FAHD OUT OF THE CLOSET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIYADH 06329

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS SA US
SUBJECT: FAHD OUT OF THE CLOSET

REF: (A) RIYADH 6198; (B) RIYADH 6266


1. (C) SUMMARY: IN A NATIONWIDE SPEECH AT 1400 LOCAL
TIME TODAY (1100 GMT, AUGUST 9) KING FAHD PUT SAUDI
ARABIA FOUR SQUARE ON THE SIDE OF THOSE COUNTRIES
CONDEMNING THE IRAQI INVASION AND CALLING FOR IRAQ TO
WITHDRAW FROM KUWAIT IMMEDIATELY AND UNCONDITIONALLY.
FAHD ALSO PUBLICLY THANKED THE "U.S., UK AND OTHER
FRIENDLY COUNTRIES" WHICH ARE RESPONDING TO SAUDI
ARABIA'S CALL FOR DEFENSIVE MILITARY ASSISTANCE. FAHD'S
SPEECH IS UNPRECEDENTED FOR ITS CANDOR AND
STRAIGHTFORWARD PRAISE OF TWO WESTERN COUNTRIES. IT
SHOWS HOW MUCH THE CURRENT CRISIS HAS CHANGED SAUDI
ARABIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST. WE ALSO BELIEVE THE SPEECH
WILL ENABLE FAHD TO MANAGE DOMESTIC REACTION TO THE
INTRODUCTION OF U.S. TROOPS FOR SOME TIME, BUT NOT
INDEFINITELY. END SUMMARY


2. (U) THIS AFTERNOON'S NEWS BROADCAST ON SAUDI
TELEVISION CARRIED A PERSONAL STATEMENT BY KING FAHD ON
THE CURRENT CRISIS. WEARING TINTED GLASSES AND CASTING
HIS EYES DOWNWARD AT HIS PREPARED TET THROUGHOUT, FAHD
DELIVERED HIS BRIEF (APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTE) SPEECH
RAPIDLY, IN A SOMBER TONE OF VOICE.


3. (U) WE WILL RELY ON FBIS TO PROVIDE THE FULL TEXT OF
FAHD'S REMARKS. THE POINTS WE WISH TO HIGHLIGHT ARE:

-- FAHD BEGAN BY REVIEWING THE EVENTS LEADING UP TO
AUGUST 2, STRESSING ALL THE EFFORTS (BILATERAL CONTACTS,
JEDDAH MEETING ETC.) WHICH SAUDI ARABIA UNDERTOOK FOR THE
COMMON GOOD TO SETTLE THE DISPUTE BETWEEN IRAQ AND KUWAIT
AND TO PREVENT AN OUTBREAK OF VIOLENCE;

-- FAHD THEN TURNED TO THE IRAQI INVASION ITSELF. HE
CALLED IT THE "MOST VICIOUS" (ABSHAA) AGGRESSION OF
MODERN ARAB HISTORY AND NOTED THAT IT HAD PRECIPITATED A
CRISIS FOR THE WHOLE WORLD.

-- NEXT, FAHD ENUMERATED THE CALLS BY THE UNSC, ARAB
LEAGUE, GCC ETC. FOR IRAQI WITHDRAWAL FROM KUWAIT
IMMEDIATELY AND UNCONDITIONALLY AND THE RESTORATION OF
THE GOVERNMENT OF SHAYKH JABIR. HE UNEQUIVOCALLY ADDED
SAUDI ARABIA'S NAME TO THIS LIST.

-- FAHD THEN PRAISED EGYPTIAN PRESIDENT MUBARAK'S CALL
FOR AN EMERGENCY ARAB SUMMIT, SAYING THAT IT WOULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN ARAB SOLIDARITY.

-- FINALLY, FAHD TURNED TO THE CRITICAL NEED TO
PROTECT SAUDI ARABIA, ITS ECONOMY AND ALL THE
ACHIEVEMENTS THAT IT HAS MADE IN RECENT YEARS. HE NOTED
THAT SAUDI ARABIA COULD NOT SUCCESSFULLY UNDERTAKE ITS
DEFENSE BY ITSELF AND THEREFORE THE SAG HAD CALLED ON
FRIENDLY COUNTRIES TO ASSIST IT.

-- AT THIS POINT, FAHD THANKED THE "U.S., UK AND OTHER
FRIENDLY COUNTRIES" WHICH HAD RESPONDED TO THE SAUDI
REQUEST BY PROVIDING AIR AND GROUND FORCES FOR THE
DEFENSE OF SAUDI ARABIA AND THE MAINTENANCE OF PEACE AND
STABILITY FOR ALL THE STATES OF THE ARAB GULF REGION,
YESTERDAY, TODAY AND TOMORROW -- GOD WILLING. HOWEVER,
HE STRESSED THAT SUCH SUPPORT WOULD BE TEMPORARY, AND
WOULD END IMMEDIATELY--AS SOON AS THE KINGDOM REQUESTED.

COMMENT:
--------------


4. (C) AS REFTELS POINTED OUT, SAUDI MEDIA COVERAGE OF
THE CRISIS HAS GRADUALLY BEEN GROWING MORE CANDID AND
COMPLETE. NOW THE KING HAS GONE ON RECORD PERSONALLY
WITH A STATEMENT LAYING OUT CLEARLY WHAT HAPPENED, WHO IS
RESPONSIBLE (ALTHOUGH HE DIDN'T MENTION SADDAM BY NAME)
AND WHAT THE SAUDI POSITION IS. HE HAS ALSO CAST THE
IRAQI INVASION AS A CRISIS FOR THE WHOLE WORLD (NOT JUST
THE ARAB WORLD) AND MADE IT CLEAR TO THE SAUDI PUBLIC
THAT IT IS A DIRECT THREAT TO SAUDI SECURITY.


5. (C) IN DOMESTIC POLITICAL TERMS, THE SPEECH WAS
IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT PROVIDED A CLEAR, PUBLIC EXPLANATION
FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF U.S. FORCES. OUR RAPIDLY GROWING
MILITARY PRESENCE HERE IS NO SECRET AND FAHD COULD ILL
AFFORD TO WAIT TOO LONG BEFORE EXPLAINING SUCH A DRASTIC
STEP TO HIS SUBJECTS. NOW THAT HE HAS DONE SO AND
EMPHASIZED THE TEMPORARY NATURE OF OUR SUPPORT, WE
BELIEVE THAT THE DOMESTIC REACTION WILL BE MANAGEABLE FOR
SOME TIME. THIS WILL NOT LAST FOREVER, HOWEVER.


6. (C) ALTHOUGH SADDAM'S KUWAIT BASHING AMUSED MANY
SAUDIS AT FIRST, FAHD'S SPEECH RELATING THE INVASION TO
SAUDI ARABIA'S OWN SECURITY SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE PUBLIC
ATTITUDES. SADDAM IS HARDLY THE POPULAR FIGURE HERE THAT
HE SEEMS TO BE IN SOME OTHER ARAB COUNTRIES. SAUDI
RELIGIOUS ELITES HAVE NO LOVE FOR SADDAM'S SECULAR,
BAATHIST SOCIALIST IDEOLOGY.


7. (C) ON THE OTHER HAND, RELIGIOUS CONSERVATIVES ALSO
FEAR WESTERN CULTURAL INROADS INTO SAUDI ARABIA. THE
LONGER LARGE NUMBERS OF WESTERN TROOPS ARE PRESENT IN
SAUDI ARABIA THE GREATER THOSE FEARS WILL BECOME.


8. (C) IMPORTANTLY FOR U.S./SAUDI RELATIONS, FAHD HAS
PUBLICLY THANKED THE U.S. FOR RESPONDING TO SAUDI
ARABIA'S CALL FOR ASSISTANCE IN ITS DEFENSE. WHILE NO
ARAB WILL MISS THIS MESSAGE, IT IS ALSO CLEAR THAT FAHD'S
STRESS ON THE TEMPORARY NATURE OF THE FOREIGN MILITARY
PRESENCE HERE, THE DEFENSIVE POSTURE OF THAT PRESENCE,
AND THE FACT THAT THE FRIENDLY FOREIGN FORCES WILL LEAVE
IMMEDIATELY AT THE KINGDOM'S REQUEST WAS MADE TO ALLAY
CONCERNS BY MANY SAUDIS OVER THE MOTIVES OF THE GROWING
U.S. BUILD-UP IN THE KINGDOM.


9. (C) NONETHELESS, FAHD HAS NOW OPENLY TIED THE U.S.
AND THE KINGDOM TOGETHER IN THE FACE OF THE IRAQI
MILITARY THREAT. SADDAM MAY HAVE REDRAWN THE MAP OF THE
MIDDLE EAST, BUT HE DID NOT ANTICIPATE ALL THE
CONSEQUENCES OF HIS ACTIONS. NOT ALL THE CHANGES ARE
GOING TO BE TO HIS LIKING BY ANY MEANS.


10. MINIMIZE CONSIDERED.


FREEMAN