Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
90PRETORIA17357
1990-10-24 14:18:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Pretoria
Cable title:  

THABO MBEKI ON THE STATE OF PLAY

Tags:  PGOV PINS SF 
pdf how-to read a cable
P 241418Z OCT 90
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3283
INFO RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN
AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG
AMCONSUL DURBAN
AMEMBASSY MBABANE
AMEMBASSY MASERU
AMEMBASSY GABORONE
AMEMBASSY HARARE
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0561
USMISSION GENEVA 0133
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PRETORIA 17357 

LONDON FOR MCKINLEY; PARIS FOR FENDRICK

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PGOV PINS SF
SUBJECT: THABO MBEKI ON THE STATE OF PLAY

REF: (A) STATE 340610 (B) PRETORIA 16918
(C) PRETORIA 17247

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PRETORIA 17357

LONDON FOR MCKINLEY; PARIS FOR FENDRICK

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PGOV PINS SF
SUBJECT: THABO MBEKI ON THE STATE OF PLAY

REF: (A) STATE 340610 (B) PRETORIA 16918
(C) PRETORIA 17247


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


2. IN A TWO HOUR MEETING WITH DCM MCCALLIE, ANC
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS DIRECTOR THABO MBEKI OUTLINED
DEVELOPMENTS IN ANC-INKATHA PEACE TALKS, CONTINUING SIGNS
OF FOUL PLAY BY SECURITY FORCE ELEMENTS, AND THE STATUS OF
NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE SAG. OF KEY IMPORTANCE, MBEKI SAID:

-- ANC AND INKATHA HAVE AGREED TO COOPERATE ON LOCAL
PEACE TREATIES IN THE NATAL AREAS MOST AFFECTED BY
VIOLENCE, LEADING TO A SUMMIT MEETING OF TOP OFFICIALS
FROM EACH SIDE, INCLUDING MANDELA AND BUTHELEZI.

-- EVIDENCE, THOUGH NOT FIRM PROOF, CONTINUES TO
SURFACE THAT ELEMENTS OF THE SECURITY FORCES ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR INCITING BLACK-ON-BLACK VIOLENCE;
GOVERNMENT'S FAILURE TO ACT AGAINST THESE ELEMENTS OR
APPOINT A JUDICIAL ENQUIRY AGGRAVATES ANC MISTRUST.

-- THE ANC IS PREPARED TO EXPLORE CONSTITUTIONAL
MATTERS WITH THE SAG IN THE APPROPRIATE WORKING GROUP, BUT
THE SAG HAS STALLED THESE DISCUSSIONS UNTIL VIOLENCE IS
DOWN AND MORE PROGRESS IS REGISTERED IN THE ARMED-ACTIONS
WORKING GROUP.

END SUMMARY.


3. DCM MCCALLIE AND POLOFF LUCAS CALLED ON ANC
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS DEPARTMENT CHIEF THABO MBEKI AND
FELLOW NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE (NEC) MEMBER AZIZ
PAHAD OCTOBER 21 AT THE LATTER'S TEMPORARY RESIDENCE IN
MAYFAIR, JOHANNESBURG. DURING THE TWO-HOUR DISCUSSION,
THE DCM PRESENTED REF A DEMARCHE (WHICH HE INDICATED HAD
ALSO BEEN DELIVERED TO BUTHELEZI - REF B) AND COVERED A
RANGE OF OTHER TOPICS.

--------------
NATAL PEACE: WORKING FROM THE GROUND UP
--------------


4. IN RESPONSE TO OUR POINTS ON ENDING ANC-INKATHA
CONFLICT, MBEKI EXPLAINED THAT THE JOINT ANC-INKATHA
COMMITTEE ON VIOLENCE HAD REACHED AGREEMENT TO PURSUE
SERIATIM LOCAL PEACE TREATIES IN THE MOST VOLATILE AREAS
OF NATAL AS A WAY OF LAYING THE FOUNDATION FOR A
MANDELA-BUTHELEZI SUMMIT. THE SIDES HAD AGREED, MBEKI
CLAIMED, THAT A FAILED SUMMIT -- ONE WHICH DID NOTHING TO
HALT THE VIOLENCE -- WOULD DO MORE HARM THAN GOOD. THE
INKATHA DELEGATION, LED BY FRANK MDLALOSE, SEEMED
GENUINELY COMMITTED TO THE PEACE PROCESS AND APPARENTLY
HAD BUTHELEZI'S FULL BLESSING. FOLLOWING THE EXAMPLE OF

THE EMPANGENI (OR NORTHERN NATL) ACCORD, LOCAL AGREEMENTS
WERE CURRENTLY BEING DEVELOPED IN MPUMALANGA, NDWEDWE AND
ELSEWHERE. TYPICALLY, ANC AND INKATHA MEMBERS OF THE
JOINT COMMITTEE WOULD TRAVEL TOGETHER TO THE AFFECTED
AREAS, CALL TOGETHER LOCAL LEADERS FROM BOTH FACTIONS, AND
HELP BROKER A PEACE TREATY.


5. MBEKI HOPED THIS PROCESS WOULD EVENTUALLY SUCCEED IN
HALTING VIOLENCE, BUT WARNED THAT PROGRESS WAS SLOW AND
INKATHA SHOWED SIGNS OF DIVISION. SOME ELEMENTS WISHED TO
DERAIL THE ADMITTEDLY DELICATE NEGOTIATIONS. INKATHA
JOINT COMMITTEE MEMBERS WERE SOMETIMES RELUCTANT TO DEFY
THESE ELEMENTS OPENLY. RUMORS HAD IT IN ONE CASE THAT
BUTHELEZI HIMSELF INCITED LOCAL CHIEFS TO OPPOSE ANC PEACE
INITIATIVES. HARD WORK WOULD BE REQUIRED TO KEEP THE
PROCESS ON TRACK AND SUSTAIN MOMENTUM, MBEKI SAID; BOTH
SIDES NEEDED TO DESIGNATE OFFICIALS WHO COULD DEVOTE FULL
TIME TO IT.


6. MBEKI SAID THIS PROGRESS ON THE GROUND WOULD HELP
ENSURE A PRODUCTIVE SUMMIT MEETING. THE (##) EXECUTIVE
COMMITTEE (NEC) AND INKATHA'S
CENTRAL COMMITTEE. THE INKATHA LEADERSHIP WAS NO LONGER
INSISTING EXCLUSIVELY ON A ONE-ON-ONE ENCOUNTER BETWEEN
MANDELA AND BUTHELEZI, NOR WAS MANDELA REFUSING TO MEET
BUTHELEZI, MBEKI STATED. DATES FOR THE AGREED GATHERING
WOULD BE SET ONCE MANDELA RETURNS FROM ABROAD. (NOTE:
REF C REPORTS AN OCTOBER 22 ANC STATEMENT WHICH PROPOSES A
MEETING OF TOP ANC AND INKATHA OFFICIALS, INCLUDING
MANDELA AND BUTHELEZI, "WITHIN THE NEAR FUTURE." END
NOTE.)

--------------
REEF VIOLENCE: SECURITY FORCE ELEMENTS
--------------


7. IN RESPONSE TO QUESTIONS, MBEKI STOOD BY THE FAMILIAR
ANC VIEW THAT "ELEMENTS OF THE SECURITY FORCES" ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR INCITING VIOLENCE IN REEF TOWNSHIPS. "WE
ARE QUITE SURE THE VIOLENCE IS NOT SPONTANEOUS," HE SAID,
BUT INSTIGATED IN ORDER TO "DISCREDIT THE MOVEMENT AND
WEAKEN THE ANC." EVIDENCE INCRIMINATING WHITE POLICE
OFFICERS, FORMER RENAMO AGENTS, AND CCB-STYLE OPERATIVES
CONTINUES TO MOUNT. INKATHA ELEMENTS, PROBABLY RECRUITED
DIRECTLY BY SOUTH AFRICAN SECURITY SERVICES, ARE ALSO
INVOLVED, MBEKI CLAIMED.


8. MBEKI ADMITTED THAT MOST LEADS IN ANC'S POSSESSION
COULD NOT PASS FOR PROOF IN A COURT OF LAW. HE ARGUED,
HOWEVER, THAT THE ANC -- IN ITS CURRENT "UNDERSTAFFED,
UNDERFINANCED" STATE -- CANNOT BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUCH
INFORMATION. ONLY THE GOVERNMENT HAS THE RESOURCES TO DO
SO. THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SERVICE (NIS) CONCEDES THIS
POINT, BUT LAW AND ORDER MINISTER VLOK AND HIS POLICE
OFFICIALS STILL INSIST THAT THE ANC MUST PROVIDE MORE
INFORMATION BEFORE THEY CAN ACT. THIS ATTITUDE, TOGETHER
WITH DE KLERK'S REFUSAL TO LAUNCH A JUDICIAL INVESTIGATION
INTO THE CAUSES OF THE VIOLENCE, CREATES AN IMPRESSION IN
ANC RANKS THAT PRETORIA HAS A HIDDEN AGENDA TO UNDERMINE
ANC SUPPORT. MBEKI WONDERED WHETHER THE SAG MIGHT ALSO
FEAR REPERCUSSIONS FROM THE SECURITY FORCES IF STRONG
ACTION IS TAKEN AGAINST ROGUE ELEMENTS. HE LAMENTED THE
FACT THAT ANC'S SHORTAGE OF MANPOWER HAD PREVENTED THE
ORGANIZATION FROM THOROUGHLY CANVASSING BLACK TOWNSHIP
POLICEMEN, MANY OF WHOM HAVE INFORMATION ON THE IMPROPER
ACTIVITIES OF THEIR WHITE COUNTERPARTS.

--------------
PROGRESS TOWARD NEGOTIATIONS
--------------


9. CONSTITUTIONAL AFFAIRS WORKING GROUP. ASKED WHEN THE
ANC-SAG DIALOGUE WOULD BE BROADENED TO INCLUDE OTHER
POLITICAL ACTORS, MBEKI EXPLAINED THAT MUCH WORK STILL
NEEDED TO BE DONE BILATERALLY. THE SAG AGREES THAT A
WORKING GROUP SHOULD CONSIDER CONSTITUTIONAL MATTERS, BUT
VILJOEN HAS DECLINED TO PURSUE THESE MATTERS BEYOND A
SINGLE MEETING (WITH THABO MBEKI) WHICH DID NO MORE THAN
SET AN AGENDA FOR ANC-SAG EXPLORATORY TALKS. ACCORDING TO
MBEKI, CONSTITUTIONAL PLANNING MINISTER VILJOEN HAS PLACED
TWO CONDITIONS ON FURTHER CONSTITUTIONAL DISCUSSIONS: A
DECREASE IN VIOLENCE COUNTRYWIDE AND MORE PROGRESS IN THE
ARMED-ACTIONS WORKING GROUP.


10. "THE SAG HAS STALLED THE PROCESS," MBEKI ASSERTED, BY
LINKING PROGRESS IN VARIOUS WORKING GROUPS. THE ANC
ARGUES THT THE DIFFERENT TRACKS SHOULD BE PURSUED
SIMULTANEOUSLY, NOT SEQUENTIALLY. THE ANC BELIEVES THE
WORKING GROUP ON CONSTITUTIONAL MATTERS SHOULD IMMEDIATELY
TAKE UP CONSTITUTIONAL PRINCIPLES AND NEGOTIATION
PROCESSES WITH A VIEW TO REPORTING AREAS OF AGREEMENT AND
DISAGREEMENT TO THE NEXT ANC-SAG SUMMIT, "GROOTE SCHUUR
III." THE QUESTION OF WHO SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN
CONSTITUTIONAL NEGOTIATIONS AND HOW THEY SHOULD BE
SELECTED NEEDS TO BE THRASHED OUT BEFORE THE TALKS CAN BE
BROADENED.


11. ARMED ACTIONS WORKING GROUP. IN THIS FORUM, MBEKI
COMPLAINED, THE SAG WAS ATTEMPTING TO CONVERT THE ANC'S
COMMITMENT TO SUSPEND ARMED ACTIONS INTO AN ABANDONMENT OF
THE ARMED STRUGGLE. PRETORIA CHOOSES TO INTERPRET "ARMED
ACTIONS AND RELATED ACTIVITIES" (SEE THE PRETORIA MINUTE)
VERY BROADLY TO INCLUDE RECRUITMENT AND TRAINING OF MK
SOLDIERS. FOR THE ANC'S PART, IT IS WILLING TO END
VIOLENT ACTS, INFILTRATION OF MEN AND ARMS, AND IN-COUNTRY
TRAINING, BUT WOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A FIGHTING FORCE
OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY. FURTHER, THE ANC FEELS IT HAS NO
OBLIGATION TO TURN OVER WEAPONS ALREADY STOCKPILED IN
SOUTH AFRICA.


12. POLITICAL OFFENSES WORKING GROUP. MBEKI SAID
PROBLEMS IN THE POLITICAL OFFENSES WORKING GROUP ARE
MANAGEABLE. THE GROUP'S FOLLOW-UP REPORT, DUE FOR RELEASE
THIS WEEK, WOULD CLARIFY CERTAIN AMBIGUITIES, E.G., HOW TO
APPLY FOR SUSPENSION OF POLITICAL TRIALS IN PROGRESS, AND
WHO MUST COMPLETE THE EXILES' QUESTIONNAIRE. THERE IS
ANC-SAG AGREEMENT THAT THE BULK OF SECURITY PRISONERS
WOULD BE FREE BY YEAR'S END; "THERE SHOULD BE NO ONE ON
ROBBEN ISLAND BY JANUARY 1," MBEKI SAID. COMPLICATED
SECURITY CASES, AND THOSE INVOLVING PUBLIC VIOLENCE FOR
POLITICAL REASONS, WOULD BE REVIEWED BY COMMITTEE BEFORE
THE END OF APRIL, ACCORDING TO THE PRETORIA MINUTE.


13. ON A PHILOSOPHICAL NOTE, MBEKI IDENTIFIED THE SOURCE
OF MUCH ANC-SAG DISAGREEMENT AS A DIFFERENCE IN
MIND-SETS. THE ANC ASSUMES THAT ACCORDS REACHED BETWEEN
THE TWO PARTIES SHOULD OVERRIDE EXISTING LAW. MEANWHILE,
THE SAG SEEMS INCLINED TO SEEK CHANGES IN ANC-SAG
AGREEMENTS IF THEY COME INTO CONFLICT WITH STANDING
LEGISLATION. THUS, THOUGH THE ARMED-ACTIONS WORKING GROUP
HAS BEEN MANDATED TO DISCUSS THE DISPOSITION OF ANC
WEAPONRY, SOUTH AFRICAN POLICE STILL INSIST ON THE
ILLEGALITY OF ARMS CACHES. SIMILAR CONFUSION HAS ARISEN
BECAUSE THE LAW STIPULATES THAT APPLICATIONS FOR INDEMNITY
MUST BE SUBMITTED TO THE STATE PRESIDENT, YET THE
POLITICAL OFFENSES WORKING GROUP AGREED TO INDEMNIFY WHOLE
CLASSES OF EXILES EN MASSE. FINALLY, THE SAG INSISTS ON
USHERING IN THE NEW CONSTITUTION THROUGH EXISTING
GOVERNMENTAL STRUCTURES, WHILE THE ANC THINKS A GENERAL
REFERENDUM WOULD SERVE TO LAUNCH A POLITICAL SETTLEMENT.
IN ANY CASE, MBEKI SAID, DE KLERK SEEMS CONFIDENT THAT HE
CAN WIN APPROVAL FOR THE RESULTS OF CONSTITUTIONAL
NEGOTIATIONS, AND PREVENT THE RIGHT WING FROM BLOCKING AN
AGREEMENT.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


14. IN STARK CONTRAST TO BUTHELEZI'S DEFENSIVENESS (REF
B),MBEKI'S RESPONSE TO OUR INTEREST IN ANC-INKATHA
RAPPROCHEMENT WAS A DISPASSIONATE, UPBEAT EXPLANATION OF
ONGOING EFFORTS, SPRINKLED WITH WARNINGS ABOUT THE
DELICACY AND VULNERABILITY OF THE PROCESS. WE AGREE THAT
PROGRESS TOWARD PEACE AT THE LOCAL LEVEL WILL IMPROVE
PROSPECTS FOR A FRUITFUL SUMMIT AND BELIEVE A CAREFULLY
TIMED JOINT MEETING OF EXECUTIVE COMMITTEES, LED BY
BUTHELEZI AND MANDELA, COULD BE PRODUCTIVE.


15. MBEKI'S SUGGESTION THAT THE SAG HAS INTRODUCED
LINKAGE INTO THE WORKING GROUP EXERCISE MERITS
INVESTIGATION. IF TRUE, IT IS IRONIC THAT AS THE ANC
MOVES AWAY FROM THE RIGID, SEQUENTIAL PROGRAM OUTLINED IN
THE HARARE DECLARATION, THE SAG MAY HAVE BECOME LESS
FLEXIBLE IN ITS APPROACH TO THE JOINT WORKING GROUPS.


16. CONSISTENT WITH ITS SELF-IMAGE AS THE PRIME
OPPOSITION FORCE, THE ANC PROBABLY SEEKS TO ESTABLISH THE
LARGEST POSSIBLE AREA OF AGREEMENT WITH THE SAG ON
CONSTITUTIONAL PRINCIPLES BEFORE OTHER PARTIES JOIN THE
DISCUSSION. THE SAG, ON THE OTHER HAND, MIGHT NOW WISH TO
LIMIT THE CONSTITUTIONAL DIALOGUE UNTIL OTHER PARTIES
CLOSER TO PRETORIA'S THINKING ARE BROUGHT ON BOARD. END
COMMENT.


SWING.