PEACE BREAKING OUT IN THE NORTH?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOGADISHU 02527

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV PREL SO
SUBJECT: PEACE BREAKING OUT IN THE NORTH?


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
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2. SUMMARY: EXHAUSTED BY FRATRICIDE AND WEAKENED BY
HUNGER,FEUDING TRIBES IN NORTHWEST SOMALIA MAY AT LAST
BE READY TO MAKE PEACE AMONG THEMSELVES, WITH SNM, AND
WITH GSDR. SOMALI ARMY "WARLORDS" IN THE NORTH HAVE
ALREADY WITHDRAWN FROM THE FRAY TO DEVOTE THEMSELVES TO
BUSINESS DEALS, AND SNM COMMANDERS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO
SIMILAR ENTERPRISES TO KEEP FROM STARVING. RESIDUAL
FIGHTING IS LITTLE MORE THAN INTER-TRIBAL RAIDING. OUR
SOURCE SAYS EVERYONE IS READY TO LAY DOWN ARMS AND PEACE
TALKS ARE SPROUTING LIKE MUSHROOMS. END SUMMARY.
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3. COLONEL OMAR ABDULLAHI HANDE, A GADABOURSI (FROM
BORAMA) CLOSELY CONNECTED WITH ARMED FORCES COMMANDER
GENERAL "MASLAH", CALLED ON AMBASSADOR ON HIS RETURN FROM
SIX WEEKS IN NORTHWEST SOMALIA MARCH 12. HE TOLD US HE
HAD JUST MADE FOLLOWING POINTS IN A REPORT TO PRESIDENT
SIAD:
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-- PROFITEERING "WARLORDS" HAD TAKEN FULL CHARGE OF
SOMALI ARMY FORCES STATIONED IN THE NORTHWEST. HE FOUND
NONE/NONE PROSECUTING THE WAR AGAINST SNM. INSTEAD,
ALL SENIOR COMMANDERS WERE DEVOTING THEMSELVES ENTIRELY
TO BUSINESS DEALS, SELLING SOLDIERS' RATIONS, FUEL, AND
AMMUNITION TO BOTH SNM AND TRIBAL FIGHTERS.
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-- FIGHTING NOW GOING ON WAS CONDUCTED ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY BY TRIBAL MILITIAS OR "FRONTS" AND WAS AIMED
AT PRESERVING TRIBAL TERRITORIES, HERDS, WATERHOLES, AND
GRAZING AREAS AGAINST ENCROACHMENTS BY OTHERS (OFTEN BUT
NOT ALWAYS SNM). SOLDIERS BELONGING TO LOCAL CLANS HAD
DESERTED THEIR UNITS AND SHED THEIR UNIFORMS IN ORDER TO
FIGHT ALONGSIDE TRIBAL BROTHERS; THOSE FROM OUTSIDE THE
REGION HAD SIMPLY WITHDRAWN TO TOWNS TO WAIT OUT THE WAR.
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-- TRADE IN GUNS AND AMMUNITION HAD BECOME HIGHLY
PROFITABLE FOR ARMY OFFICERS, SINCE BOTH SNM AND ALLIES
AND THEIR TRIBAL OPPONENTS WERE BIDDING UP PRICES.
COMMANDERS WERE ALSO PROFITLNG FROM DESERTION OF THEIR
TROOPS BY SIMPLY POCKETING SALARIES.
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-- MANY DISPLACED PERSONS (I.E. ISAAKS) WOULD HAVE
RETURNED HOME LONG AGO HAD THEY NOT BEEN DETERRED FROM
DOING SO BY BOTH/BOTH SNM AND GOVERNMENT FORCES. GROWING
NUMBERS WERE NOW RETURNING, BECAUSE AUTHORITY ON BOTH
SIDES HAD PRACTICALLY COLLAPSED AND ISAAKS, SUFFERING
FROM THIRST, HUNGER, DISEASE, AND ABOMINABLE CAMP
CONDITIONS, WERE DEMANDING TO GO HOME.
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-- AMONG THEMSELVES, TRIBAL LEADERS -- REALIZING THEY HAD
BECOME VICTIMS AND PAWNS IN THE WAR BETWEEN SIAD AND SNM --
WERE NEGOTIATING PEACE AGREEMENTS ON ALL SIDES. ISAAKS OF
HABR TOLJALQ AND HABR YUNIS CLANS HAD SIGNED A TRUCE
WITH DOLBAHANTA FROM LAS ANOD. ISAAKS FROM HARGEISA AND
BORAMA HABR AWAL WERE SUING QADABOURSI FOR PEACE ALONG
THEIR COMMON TERRITORIAL BORDER EAST OF BORAMA. A SIMILAR
AGREEMENT BETWEEN GADABOURSI AND ISSA APPEARED WITHIN
REACH.
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-- CLOSURE OF DJIBOUTI-BORAMA HIGHWAY HAD BADLY HURT
COMMUNITIES ALONG THAT ROAD AND FORCED PRICES SKY HIGH IN
BORAMA. A 50 KILO BAG OF RICE NOW COST MORE THAN 80,000
SO.SH., OR ABOUT TWELVE TIMES THE PRICE OF AN AVERAGE
GOAT. HOWEVER, GADABOURSI IN BORAMA HAD ESTABLISHED
ALTERNATIVE TRADE LINKS VIA BERBERA AND WERE RUNNING
CONVOYS UNDER ARMED (NON-MILITARY) ESCORT FOUR TIMES A
MONTH, CARRYING LIVESTOCK TO BERBERA PORT AND RETURNING
WITH SUPPLIES OF FOOD. (COLONEL OMAR COMMENTED THAT IT
WAS NOW DJIBOUTI ITSELF THAT WAS SUFFERING MOST FROM
CLOSURE OF THE ROAD AND LOSS OF COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY.)

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4. AMBASSADOR COMMENTED TO COLONEL OMAR HE HAD HEARD FROM
PRIME MINISTER SAMANTAR THAT A PEACE AGREEMENT WITH SNM
MIGHT BE CONCLUDED AS EARLY AS APRIL. OMAR SAID THIS WAS
NOT/NOT BEYOND POSSIBILITY, AS THE SNM LEADERSHIP WAS
ITSELF COLLAPSING, ITS FORCES HAD TAKEN SEVERAL SEVERE
DEFEATS AT THE HANDS OF GADABOURSI AND OTHER TRIBAL
"FRONTS" IN RECENT WEEKS, AND ISAAK ELDERS WERE PROBING
FOR PEACE DEALS AMONG BOTH OTHER TRIBAL GROUPS AND GSDR
ITSELF. SNM LEADERS WERE NO LONGER "TALKING SO TOUGH"
AS THEY HAD BEFORE AND ARE SO DIVIDED THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO HOLD THEIR SCHEDULED CONGRESS. INDEED, COLONEL OMAR
SAID, THEY HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SAME HABITS AS SOMALI
ARMY OFFICERS: USING TRUCKS DONATED BY ISAAK SUPPORTERS TO
TRANSPORT KHAT AND FOR OTHER PRIVATE COMMERICAL PURPOSES.
GIVEN THIS SITUATION, PLUS SAMANTAR GOVERNMENT'S APPARENT
DETERMINATION TO REACH AGREEMENT SOON IN ORDER TO HOLD
ELECTIONS, COLONEL OMAR BELIEVED THAT SAMANTAR JUST MIGHT
BE ABLE TO PULL IT OFF.

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5. ONE INTERESTING SIDELIGHT: WITH THE EXHAUSTION OF
NOMADIC FIGHTERS ON BOTH SIDES OR THE BORDER AND SOLDIERS
FROM BOTH SIDES SELLING THEIR GUNS TO BUY FOOD, BIGGEST
PURCHASERS OF WEAPONS HAVE TURNED OUT TO BE THE OROMO
LIBERATION FRONT. OMAR POINTED OUT THAT THE OLF (WHICH
COUNTS ON BACKING FROM SOME 22 MILLION OROMOS, OMAR SAID)
NOW SEES AN OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MENGISTU'S
SETBACKS AT THE HANDS OF ERITREANS AND TIGRAYANS AND HAVE
SUDDENLY GROWN VERY AMBITIOUS.

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6. COMMENT: COLONEL OMAR'S ASSIGNMENT, WE INFER, WAS TO
INSURE THAT THE GADABOURSI AROUND BORAMA REMAIN FIRMLY
ENROLLED ON THE SIDE OF THE GOVERNMENT (THEY ARE IN FACT
SURROUNDED BY ANTI-GOVERNMENT ISAAK AND ISSA FORCES THAT
HAVE BEEN TRYING UNSUCCESSFULLY TO BRING BORAMA TO ITS
KNEES). OMAR SEEMS TO HAVE GONE BEYOND HIS ASSIGNMENT,
HOWEVER, TO SURVEY THE MILITARY AND POLITICAL SITUATION
GENERALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. HIS REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT
HAS BOTH BAD NEWS AND GOOD NEWS: AN UTTERLY INEFFECTIVE
AND CORRUPT SOMALI ARMY FORCE FACING AN EQUALLY INEFFECTUAL
AND EXHAUSTED INSURGENCY. OMAR BELIEVES EVERYONE IS TIRED
OF THE WAR NOW AND LOOKING FOR PEACE AND WE HOPE HE'S
RIGHT. CERTAINLY PRIME MINISTER SAMANTAR IS COUNTING
HEAVILY ON THE FATIGUE FACTOR, AS HE MOUNTS HIS RELIEF
OPERATION FOR RETURNED ISAAKS IN BURAO AND PROMISES A
PEACE AGREEMENT WITHIN TWO MONTHS. PERHAPS THERE IS LIGHT
AT THE END OF THIS DREADFULLY LONG TUNNEL.

CRIGLER