DECEMBER 27, 1990 MEETING WITH PRESIDENT SIAD BARRE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOGADISHU 11295


E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, SO
SUBJ: DECEMBER 27, 1990 MEETING WITH PRESIDENT SIAD BARRE

1. (C) ENTIRE TEXT.

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2. SUMMARY: THE PRESIDENT POSED NO OBJECIION TO THE
ORDERED DEPARTURE OF OUR PERSONNEL, NOR/OF THE WITHDRAWAL
OF FUEL, EQUIPMENT AND CONTRACT PERSONNEL FROM BERBERA.
HE SAID HE FEARED I HAD COME TO SAY ALL AMERICANS WERE
LEAVING. HIS COMMENTS ON THE COUNTRY'S SITUATION WERE
TERSE BUT REALISTIC. HE EXPRESSED DETERMINATION TO CARRY
ON BUT GAVE NO HINT OF ANY GAMEPLAN AND LAPSED ONCE
INTO FATALISM. HE SEEMED TO BE IN GOOD PHYSICAL AND
MENTAL HEALTH BUT NOT AT ALL INTERESTED IN EXTENDED
DISCUSSION. END SUMMARY.

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3. PRESIDENT SIAD BARRE RECEIVED ME AT MY REQUEST
DECEMBER 27, 1990. MY OBJECTIVE IN SEEKING THE MEETING,
THE FIRST SINCE I PRESENTED MY CREDENTIALS IN SEPTEMBER,
WAS TO MAKE A PERSONAL ASSESSMENT OF THE STATE OF MIND
OF A CHIEF OF STATE WHOM ONE NEVER SEES IN PUBLIC AND
ONLY IN THE MOST FORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES ON TELEVISION.
WE MET AT VILLA SOMALIA IN A BUILDING AND ROOM ONCE
USED BY THE CABINET FOR ITS SESSIONS. SIAD ARRIVED
AFTER I DID AND WAS ACCOMPANIED BY VICE MINISTER
BASI FROM THE FOREIGN MINISTRY AND ANOTHER UNIDENTIFIED
AIDE. I WAS ALONE.

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4. LEFT TO INITIATE THE DISCUSSION, I TOLD SIAD I HAD
ASKED TO SEE HIM BECAUSE THERE HAD BEEN NO OCCASION
TO SPEAK FOR THREE MONTHS AND BECAUSE I WANTED TO BRIEF
HIM ON RECENT USG DECISIONS REGARDING SOMALIA, TO AVOID
THE DANGER OF MISINTERPRETATION. AS THE PRESIDENT
NODDED, I EXPLAINED THAT OUR RECENT EVACUATION OF
NON-ESSENTIAL PERSONNEL HAD MADE IT NECESSARY TO
SUSPEND OUR CIVIL AND MILITARY ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS, WHICH
WE WOULD RESUME ONCE SECURITY CONDITIONS MADE IT
POSSIBLE. AS SIAD OFFERED NO COMMENT, I THEN TOLD HIM
WE WERE WITHDRAWING FUEL, EQUIPMENT AND USG CONTRACT
PERSONNEL FROM BERBERA, DUE TO PERSIAN GULF REQUIREMENTS.

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5. SIAD'S RESPONSE, WHEN I FINISHED MY BRIEF PRESENTA-
TION, WAS THE APPARENTLY SERIOUS COMMENT. "O GOOD, I
THOUGH YOU WERE COMING TO SAY GOODBYE AND TO TELL ME
THE OTHER AMERICANS ALSO WERE LEAVING". CONTINUING,
HE SAID HE UNDERSTOOD AND ACCEPTED THE DECISIONS I HAD
DESCRIBED. DESCRIBING THE CURRENT SITUATION IN
THE COUNTRY AS "BAD", THE PRESIDENT ADDED, "AND I AM
A LITTLE BIT OLD". HE CONCLUDED HIS RESPONSE WITH THE
COMMENT, "AND WE DON'T KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN".

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6. FOR THE NEXT TEN MINUTES I TRIED TO DRAW THE
ELDERLY PRESIDENT INTO CONVERSATION BUT COULD ELICIT
ONLY BRIEF RESPONSES TO THE SUBJECTS I RAISED. HE
WAS ANXIOUS TO TERMINATE THE MEETING AND PROBABLY WOULD
HAVE DONE SO, EXCEPT FOR THE FACT THAT THE JUICE HE HAD
OFFERED HAD NOT YET ARRIVED. WHEN I MENTIONED USG
DISAPPOINTMENT AT THE COLLAPSE OF THE CAIRO ROUNDTABLE
AND ASKED IF SOME OTHER INITIATIVE WERE UNDERWAY,
SIAD REPLIED, "THEY CAN COME HERE AND TALK IF THEY
WANT TO". ASKED IF HE WAS LOOKING FOR ANY FURTHER HELP
FROM THE USG OR OTHER NATIONS IN PROMOTING PEACEFUL
RECONCILIATION, HIS COMMENT WAS THAT "GOD HELPS THOSE
WHO HELP THEMSELVES". WHEN I NOTED THE PASSAGE OF
THE LEGISLATION ESTABLISHING GROUNDRULES FOR THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF POLITICAL PARTIES, HE SAID HE THOUGHT
ONE OR TWO ALREADY HAD REGISTERED. THEN HE HAD AN
APPARENTLY INCONCLUSIVE EXCHANGE IN SOMALI WITH HIS
AIDES ON THE SUBJECT. HE REPEATED AGAIN THAT THE
SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY WAS BAD, NOTING AT ONE POINT THAT
WHAT HAPPENS IS "UP TO GOD".

7. AFTER OUR JUICE ARRIVED, AND APPARENTLY JUST TO MAKE
CONVERSATION, SIAD SAID HE UNDERSTOOD PRESIDENT BUSH TOO
WAS IN TROUBLE. WHEN I ASKED HIM TO ELABORATE, HE
ASKED INSTEAD WHEN THE PRESIDENT WILL LAUNCH THE ATTACK
ON IRAQ. WITH A SMILE I TOLD HIM THAT THE DATE HAD NOT
BEEN SHARED WITH THE EMBASSY. WE THEN EXCHANGED NEW
YEARS GREETINGS AND PARTED.

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8. COMMENT: SIAD'S STRIDE WAS VIGOROUS FOR A MAN IN
HIS EIGHTIES, HIS HANDSHAKE WAS FIRM, AND HIS MIND
WAS ALERT. HAVING HAD TO LISTEN THE PREVIOUS DAY TO
THE SOMALI AMBASSADOR TO WASHINGTON INSIST FOR AN HOUR
THAT THE SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY IS IN ALL IMPORTANT
RESPECTS NORMAL, AND HAVING BEEN TOLD BY ADMIRAL MARINO
THAT PEACE HAD RETURNED TO THE NORTHWEST AS WE
CHATTED WHILE I WAITED FOR SIAD, I WAS SURPRISED BY THE
PRESLDENT'S REALISM IN ACKNOWLEDGING THE REGIME'S
PLIGHT. HOWEVER, HE IS CONSIDERABLY SMARTER THAN MY
OTHER TWO INTERLOCUTORS AND CERTAINLY WISE ENOUGH TO
REALIZE HE WOULD HAVE NO CREDIBILITY PRETENDING TO
ANYONE LIVING IN MOGADISHU THAT CONDITIONS HERE
RESEMBLE NORMALCY. RECOGNIZING OUR PREOCCUPATION WITH
HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES, HE PROBABLY ALSO SAW NO
MILEAGE IN TOUTING THE REGIME'S MILITARY AND POLICE
INITIATIVES. PERHAPS HE RECOGNIZES THEIR LIMITATIONS.
MY GENERAL IMPRESSION WAS THAT I WAS DEALING WITH A
WORRIED MAN WHO DOES NOT FEEL HE HAS A GAMEPLAN WHICH
WILL ALLOW HIM TO OVERCOME THE PROBLEMS BEFORE HIM.
NEVERTHELESS HE SEEMED INTENT TO MUDDLE ON, GIVING NO
HINT THAT HE MIGHT BE THINKING OF HEADING TOWARD THE
EXIT.

BISHOP