DECEMBER 22, 1990 MEETING WITH THE PRIME MINISTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOGADISHU 11232


E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, SO
SUBJ: DECEMBER 22, 1990 MEETING WITH THE PRIME MINISTER

REF: MOGADISHU 08583

1. (C) ENTIRE TEXT.

2. SUMMARY: THE PRIME MINISTER ACCEPTED STOICALLY
NOTIFICATION OF THE WITHDRAWAL OF FUEL, EQUIPMENT AND USG
CONTRACT PERSONNEL FROM BERBERA. INITIALLY UPSET
ABOUT THE EVACUATION OF USG PERSONNEL AND DEPENDENTS
FROM MOGADISHU, HE CONCEDED THAT WE HAD THE RIGHT TO
TAKE WHAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS WE FELT APPROPRIATE.
ASKED WHAT GAMEPLAN HIS GOVERNMENT HAD FOR POLITICAL
RECONCILIATION FOLLOWING THE COLLAPSE OF THE
CAIRO CONFERENCE, HE COULD NOT IDENTIFY ONE. THE
PRIME MINISTER DID PLEA FOR FOOD AID AND REQUESTED OUR
INTERCESSION WITH THE IBRD. END SUMMARY.

3. INTRODUCTION: CALLED DECEMBER 22, 1990 ON PRIME
MINISTER MOHAMED HAWADLE MADAR TO OFFICIALLY NOTIFY
THE GSDR OF THE SUSPENSION OF OUR ASSISTANCE PROGRAM
AND THE WITHDRAWAL OF PERSONNEL, FUEL AND EQUIPMENT
FROM BERBERA. I INFORMED THE SECRETARY OF STATE FOR
FOREIGN AFFAIRS OF OUR VOLUNTARY DEPARTURE STATUS
DECEMBER 8. BUT I SUBSEQUENTLY DELAYED TELLING THE
GSDR WE HAD MOVED TO AN ORDERED DEPARTURE, AND OF THE
CONSEQUENCES FOR OUR ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS, UNTIL OUR
FILIPINO CONTRACTORS LEFT THE COUNTRY. I WAS AFRAID
THE GSDR MIGHT COMPEL THEM TO REMAIN, IN ORDER TO KEEP
ITS PEACE CUBE MILITARY COMMUNICATIONS NETWORK FUNCTION-
ING. MADAR MET ME WITHOUT A NOTETAKER OR OTHER AIDE.
I WAS UNACCOMPANIED.

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4. EVACUATION: INITIATING THE DISCUSSION, I
EXPLAINED THAT THE CONTINUED DETERIORATION OF
THE SECURITY SITUATION HAD LED TO A USG DECISION
TO WITHDRAW ALL AMERICAN GOVERNMENT DEPENDENTS AND
NON-ESSENTIAL PERSONNEL FROM SOMALIA. UNFORTUNATELY,
THIS STEP WOULD MAKE IT NECESSARY TO SUSPEND OUR CIVIL
AND MILITARY ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS. THESE WOULD RESUME
WHEN AN IMPROVEMENT IN SECURITY CONDITIONS PERMITTED
THE RETURN OF THE PERSONNEL NEEDED TO IMPLEMENT THEM.
THE FUEL AND EQUIPMENT STORED AT BERBERA ARE NEEDED
BY U.S. FORCES IN THE GULF, I TOLD THE PRIME MINISTER.
THESE COMMODITIES, AND THE AMERICAN AND FILIPINO
CONTRACTORS ASSIGNED TO BERBERA, WOULD BE REMOVED
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS, I EXPLAINED.

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5. RESPONDING FIRST ON THE SUBJECT OF EQUIPMENT IN
BERBERA, THE PRIME MINISTER SAID SIMPLY, "IT BELONGS
TO YOU. IF YOU NEED IT ELSEWHERE, TAKE IT." ON THE WITH-
DRAWAL OF USG DEPENDENTS AND STAFF FROM MOGADISHU, MADAR
FIRST REGISTERED UNHAPPINESS AT THE "UNILATERAL" AMERICAN
DECISION. BUT AS WE TALKED IT THROUGH, AND I REMINDED
HIM HOW OFTEN I HAD TOLD SENIOR GSDR OFFICIALS THAT OUR
PERSONNEL WOULD BE REDUCED IF THE SECURITY PICTURE
BECAME BLEAKER, THE PRIME MINISTER BACKED DOWN. HE
FINALLY STATED THAT HE UNDERSTOOD MY FIRST CONCERN HAD
TO BE THE WELFARE OF MY COLLEAGUES. HE THEN ADMITTED
HIS BASIC CONCERN WAS THAT THE REGIME'S OPPONENTS HAVE
BEEN ENCOURAGED BY THE PARTIAL EVACUATION OF THE
DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY TO CONCLUDE THAT THERE IS NO NEED
TO NEGOTIATE WITH HIS GOVERNMENT, BECAUSE IT IS ON ITS
LAST LEGS. I ASSURED MADAR THAT WE HAVE BEEN TRYING
TO DISCOURAGE SUCH UNFOUNDED CONCLUSIONS BY TELLING THE
OPPOSITION IT SHOULD TALK WITH THE GOVERNMENT BECAUSE
THE REGIME HAS CONSIDERABLE STAYING POWER.

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6. RECONCILIATION: EXPRESSING REGRET AT THE
COLLAPSE OF THE CAIRO CONFERENCE, I ASKED THE
PRIME MINISTER TO OUTLINE THE GSDR'S NEXT STEPS
TOWARD A PEACEFUL RESOLUTION OF ITS DIFFERENCES
WITH ITS OPPONENTS. IN RESPONSE, AN EXTREMELY
DEFENSIVE MADAR SOUGHT TO JUSTIFY THE GOVERNMENT'S
ARREST OF THE MANIFESTO GROUP MEMBERS, INSISTING THAT
THE GSDR SHOULD NOT BE HELD LIABLE FOR THE POSTPONE-
MENT OF THE CONFERENCE BECAUSE IT HAD ARRESTED TWO
MEN GUILTY OF ILLEGAL ACTIVITY. RATHER THAN ENGAGE
IN FRUITLESS DEBATE ON THAT ISSUE, I AGAIN ASKED THE
PRIME MINISTER TO OUTLINE WHAT STEPS THE GSDR NEXT
INTENDS TO TAKE TO REACH A POLITICAL SETTLEMENT WITH
ITS OPPONENTS. MADAR STATED THAT THE GSDR STANDS
READY TO GO TO CAIRO OR TO MEET IN MOGADISHU WITH
ANYONE CONCERNED ABOUT THE COUNTRY'S FUTURE. IT ALSO
MIGHT TRY TO HOST A CONFERENCE OF TRADITIONAL LEADERS,
GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS AND INTELLECTUALS IN MOGADISHU,
HE SAID. HOWEVER, MADAR HAD NO STRATEGY TO DESCRIBE.
IN FACT, HE ASKED ME TO SUGGEST ONE TO HIM. HE PROVED
UNFAMILIAR WITH HICKS' SPEECH ON FEDERALISM AND
SKEPTICAL OF ITS THESIS WHEN I DESCRIBED IT.

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7. FOOD AID: LABELING HIS GOVERNMENT AS THE FIRST
CIVILIAN REGIME IN 21 YEARS, THE PRIME MINISTER SAID
HE WAS VERY DISAPPOINTED THAT HIS PROVISIONAL
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CONSTITUTION, UNDERTAKEN AT
THE URGING OF WESTERN EMBASSIES, HAD NOT TRIGGERED THE
RESUMPTION OF WESTERN ASSISTANCE HE EXPECTED. THE
WEST RISKS SEEING ANOTHER MILITARY REGIME IN SOMALIA
HE INSISTED. MADAR THEN TOOK ME TO TASK FOR THE
ALLEGED REFUSAL OF THE USG TO PROVIDE FOOD AID TO
SOMALIA, AT A TIME WHEN IT IS FURNISHING HOSTILE
REGIMES IN ETHIOPIA AND MOZAMBIQUE WITH MASSIVE FOOD
ASSISTANCE. MADAR LISTENED PATIENTLY AS I EXPLAINED
THE APOLITICAL NATURE OF USG EMERGENCY RELIEF PROGRAMS,
INFORMED HIM THAT USG COMMODITIES ARE BEING DELIVERED
TO THE ICRC AT BERBERA FOR USE IN THE NORTH, AND GAVE
HIM A STATUS REPORT ON OUR PROPOSAL FOR 5 MILLION USDOLS
IN EMERGENCY FOOD ASSISTANCE FOR THE MOGADISHU AREA.

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8. PETROLEUM SHORTAGE: BEFORE I COULD LEAVE, THE
PRIME MINISTER ASKED THAT THE USG INTERCEDE WITH THE
IBRD TO OBTAIN RELEASE OF THE THIRD TRANCHE
OF THE AGRICULTURAL STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM. HE
EXPLAINED THAT THE GSDR WAS COUNTING ON IT TO FINANCE
PETROLEUM IMPORTS FOR WHICH IT HAS NO OTHER FUNDS. AS
JUSTIFICATION, HE MENTIONED SEVERAL REFORMS THE GSDR
HAS TAKEN SINCE THE RECENT DEPARTURE OF THE IBRD
AGRICULTURAL TEAM. IN RESPONDING TO MADAR, I GAVE
HIM NO BASIS FOR ENCOURAGEMENT.

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9. COMMENT: THE PRIME MINISTER'S INABILITY TO
IDENTIFY A STRATEGY FOR POLITICAL RECONCILIATION
REFLECTS MORE, I SUSPECT, THE NEAR PARALYSIS
AFFLICTING SIAD BARRE'S GOVERNMENT THAN ANY
WIDESPREAD BELIEF THAT GENERAL MORGAN'S ONGOING
MILITARY CAMPAIGN IS GOING TO CHECKMATE THE REGIME'S
ARMED OPPONENTS. MADAR'S DEFENSIVENESS AND LACK OF
A POLITICAL GAMEPLAN WERE ECHOED AT LUNCH DECEMBER 23
BY REGIME LOYALIST BASHIR FARAH KAHIE, MADAR'S
MINISTER OF COMMERCE.

BISHOP