DISCUSSION WITH GENERAL MOHAMED ALI SAMANTAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOGADISHU 10701


ALSO FOR INR/B AND INR/DB

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, PINR, PGOV, SO
SUBJ: DISCUSSION WITH GENERAL MOHAMED ALI SAMANTAR

1. (C) ENTIRE TEXT.

2. SETTING: ALTHOUGH GENERAL SAMANTAR CURRENTLY HOLDS
NO OFFICIAL POSITION, HE REMAINS ONE OF SOMALIA'S
PRINCIPAL POLITICAL FIGURES. ACCORDINGLY, I CALLED ON
HIM AT HIS QUARTERS DECEMBER 4. I FOUND HIM LIVING
IN A VERY LARGE AND ELABORATELY FURNISHED HOME WITHIN
THE PERIMETER OF THE MOGADISHU OFFICERS' CLUB. HE WAS
IN APPARENT GOOD HEALTH AND SPIRITS, ALTHOUGH JUDGING
BY THE CONDITION OF HIS FINGERS HE BITES HIS NAILS
A LOT.
-
3. DOMESTIC POLITICS: THE FORMER VICE PRESIDENT,
PRIME MINISTER, DEFENSE MINISTER, ARMY COMMANDER, ETC.
PUT NO DISTANCE BETWEEN HIMSELF AND THE REGIME. HE WAS
CRITICAL OF THE OPPOSITION FOR ITS ALLEGED COMPLICITY
IN THE VIOLENCE WHICH HAS PLAGUED MOGADISHU FOR
MONTHS. (HE ADMITTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE HEAVY FIGHTING
OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WAS TRIBAL IN ORIGIN.) AFTER
BLAMING THE OPPOSITION FOR MUCH OF THE OTHER VIOLENCE,
HE ASKED RHETORICALLY HOW ITS LEADERS COULD EXPECT THE
NEW CONSTITUTION TO FUNCTION IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT.
HE DID NOT ADVOCATE ABANDONMENT OF THE POLITICAL REFORM
PROCESS, BUT HE ALSO HAD THE FRANKNESS TO MAKE IT CLEAR
HE IS NOT ITS ARDENT SUPPORTER. WHEN THE CAIRO ROUNDTABLE
WAS RAISED, HIS OBJECTIVE FOR THE MEETING SEEMED LIMITED
TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A CEASE-FIRE.
-
4. ISLAMIC FERMENT: THE GENERAL SPOKE MOST INTERESTINGLY
ON THE SUBJECT OF TURBULENCE WITH THE LOCAL ISLAMIC
COMMUNITY. WITH OBVIOUS REGRET, HE SAID FOREIGN
INFLUENCES ARE DISTURBING A COMMUNITY WHICH HAD BEEN
NOTED FOR ITS TOLERANCE AND PEACEFULNESS. THE VILLIANS
HE IDENTIFIED INCLUDED MILITANTS FOR THE SEVERAL SUFI
ORDERS WHICH HAVE LONG EXISTED IN SOMALIA, AS WELL AS
MORE RECENTLY ARRIVED SECTS, E.G. THE WAHHABI OF
SAUDI ARABIA. ALTHOUGH HARDLY A RELIGIOUS MOVEMENT,
SAMANTAR MENTIONED THAT SOME OF THE YOUNG SOMALIS WHO
GO TO IRAQ TO STUDY ON IRAQI SCHOLARSHIPS RETURN AS
BAATHISTS. FOR OBVIOUS REASONS, HE CONSIDERED THIS
ELEMENT AMONG THE MOST POTENTIALLY DISRUPTIVE, ALTHOUGH
QUITE LIMITED IN INFLUENCE AT THE MOMENT. THE WHOLE
PHENOMENON OF RELIGIOUS FERMENT HE CONSIDERED MORE
SIGNIFICANT FOR SOMALIA'S FUTURE THAN IT IS AT
PRESENT, WHERE HE SAW ITS IMPACT AS MARGINAL.
-
5. THE GULF: NOT SURPRISINGLY, THE COMBAT VETERAN
RAISED THE PROSPECTS OF WAR IN THE GULF. HE DESCRIBED
SADDAM HUSSEIN, WHOM HE MET WHILE THEY WERE VICE
PRESIDENTS OF THEIR RESPECTIVE COUNTRIES, AS A PARTICULARLY
AGGRESSIVE AND AMBITIOUS MAN. HE PROFESSED DOUBT THAT
MANY SOMALIS ARE DISSATISFIED WITH THE REGIME'S SUPPORT
FOR THE COALITION BUT SUBSEQUENTLY CONCEDED THAT MANY
UNEDUCATED SOMALIS ADMIRE THE IRAQI LEADER FOR
DEFYING THE INFIDELS.
-
6. PERSONAL ROLE: WITHOUT SAYING ANYTHING TO INDICATE
RESENTMENT, SAMANTAR MADE IT CLEAR THAT HE CONSIDERED
HIS CURRENT ABSENCE FROM OFFICE EXCEPTIONAL. REFERRING
TO HIMSELF SEVERAL TIMES AS "A POLITICAL MAN", HE
MADE NO SECRET OF THE FACT THAT HE REMAINS POLITICALLY
ACTIVE, ALBEIT FROM A POSITION ON THE SIDELINES
RATHER THAN CENTERFIELD.


BISHOP