LEADER OF SOMALI DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT EXPLAINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOGADISHU 10384


DEPT FOR INR/B, INR/DB

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PINR SO
SUBJECT: LEADER OF SOMALI DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT EXPLAINS
HIMSELF

REF: MOGADISHU 10239


1. CONFIDENTIAL--ENTIRE TEXT.


2. SUMMARY: THE ELDERLY RAHENWEYNE LEADER WHO HEADS THE
SOMALI DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENY (SDM) SAID HE HAD BROKEN
A PROMISE WITH SIAD BARRE AND ENTERED THE POLITICAL
FRAY BECAUSE THE CURRENT REGIME IS EXPIRING AND HE
DID NOT WANT HIS TRIBE TO MISS OUT IN THE COMPETITION
FOR POLITICAL POWER. HE EXPECTED TO ATTEND THE CAIRO
CONFERENCE AS A MEMBER OF THE MANIFESTO GROUP'S
DELEGATION. HE WAS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT HIS COUNTRY'S
FUTURE AND ANXIOUS FOR MORE AMERICAN INVOLVEMENT.
END SUMMARY.

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3. BIOGRAPHICS: ABDULCADIR MOHAMED ADEN (RAHENWEYNE)
WAS BORN ABOUT 70 YEARS AGO IN BOULA BERTE, WHERE HIS
FATHER WAS A COLONIAL POLICEMAN. A MEMBER OF THE
RAHENWEYNE TRIBE, HE GREW UP IN MOGADISHU AFTER HIS
FATHER'S TRANSFER TO THE CAPITAL. HE BECAME KNOWN AS
ZOPPO, OR GIMP, DUE TO A PARTIALLY CRIPPLED LEG.
THE YOUNG SOMALIS' ASPIRATIONS TO STUDY ABROAD WERE
FRUSTRATED BY THE FASCIST REGIME.

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4. ZOPPO ENTERED POLITICS DURING THE BRITISH
OCCUPATION AND BECAME PROMINENT DURING THE
SUBSEQUENT ITALIAN TRUSTEESHIP. CONSIDERED BY
THEM A LEADER OF HIS TRIBE, ZOPPO WAS NAMED
MINISTER OF FINANCE BY THE FIRST INDEPENDENT
GOVERNMENT, SHIFTING TO THE MINISTRY OF THE
INTERIOR IN 1964. HE LEFT THAT POSITION THREE YEARS
LATER. ZOPPO CLAIMED, AT A MEETING WITH ME NOVEMBER
28, TO HAVE HELPED FINANCE SIAD BARRE'S COUP IN 1969.
IN ANY CASE, HE WAS NOT LOCKED UP THEREAFTER, THE
FATE OF MANY OTHER PROMINENT POLITICIANS. HE SAID
THAT HE AND THE NEW PRESIDENT STRUCK A BARGAIN.
SIAD PROMISED ZOPPO HE WOULD NOT BE ARRESTED, PROVIDED
HE AND THE RAHENWEYNE WHO FOLLOWED HIS LEADERSHIP
REFRAINED FROM OPPOSITION OR OTHER FORMS OF POLITICAL
ACTIVITY.

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5. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW YEARS SPENT IN KENYA,
WHEN ZOPPO WAS FEARFUL THAT SIAD'S ADOPTION OF SCIENTIFIC
SOCIALISM BODED ILL FOR A PROMINENT AND SUCCESSFUL
CAPITALIST, HE HAS CONTINUED TO RESIDE IN MOGADISHU.
ACCORDING TO THE RAHENWEYNE ELDER, WHEN SIAD
DECIDED TO SEEK A REAPPROACHMENT WITH THE UNITED
STATES, THE PRESIDENT COMMISSIONED HIM TO OPEN
CHANNELS TO WASHINGTON. HE CLAIMED TO HAVE DONE SO
THROUGH ITALIAN CONNECTIONS AND TO HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT
THE CARTER WHITE HOUSE. HIS CURRENT BUSINESS INTERESTS
INCLUDE A BANANA PLANTATION NEAR SHALANBOD, REAL
ESTATE IN MOGADISHU, AND REPRESENTATION OF OVERSEAS
FIRMS. ZOPPO IS CONSIDERED BY MANY TO BE THE MOST
INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL FIGURE IN SOUTHERN SOMALIA.
ZOPPO HAS FIVE GROWN CHILDREN, ONE OF WHOM IS
STUDYING AT THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA. ZOPPO HAS A
CATARACT ON ONE EYE, WHICH HE PLANS TO HAVE REMOVED
IN THE UNITED STATES AFTER HIS UPCOMING TRIP TO
EUROPE.

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6. THE SOMALI DEMOCRATIC MOVENENT: WHILE DECRYING
TRIBALISM AS SOMALIA'S CURSE, ZOPPO READILY
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE POLITICAL PARTY HE LEADS
REPRESENTS ONLY HIS FELLOW RAHENWEYNE TRIBESMEN. ASKED
WHY HE HAD VIOLATED HIS PACT WITH SIAD TO ENGAGE AGAIN
IN POLITICS, HE REPLIED THAT WITH THE REGIME NEARING ITS/ND
AND THE OTHER TRIBAL GROUPS ORGANIZING TO FURTHER THEIR
OWN INTERESTS, HE DID NOT WANT RAHENWEYNE LEFT OUT OF
THE COMPETITION FOR POWER. DISCLAIMING ANY PERSONAL
AMBITION, HE SAID HE IS TOO OLD AND INFIRM TO SEEK
THE PRESIDENCY, AN OFFICE WHICH MIGHT, HOWEVER, BE
OCCUPIED BY ONE OF HIS KINSMEN. HE SAID HE CONSIDERED
THE HAWIYE-BASED UNITED SOMALI CONGRESS A NATURAL ALLY,
MENTIONING THAT HE HAD MET WITH ITS MOGADISHU LEADERSHIP
THE PREVIOUS EVENING AT THE HOME OF MOHAMED
FARAH SIAD.

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7. THE CAIRO CONFERENCE: THE RAHENWEYNE LEADER SAID
THAT IN MEETINGS WITH THE MANIFESTO GROUP AND ITALIAN
AMBASSADOR SICA IT WAS AGREED THAT ZOPPO WILL
PARTICIPATE IN THE CAIRO ROUNDTABLE AS A MEMBER OF THE
MANIFESTO GROUP'S DELEGATION. THIS TACTIC IS BEING
ADOPTED TO HELP THE ITALIANS DEFLECT ATTEMPTS BY OTHER
LESS REPRESENTATIVE GROUPS TO OBTAIN INVITATIONS TO
THE MEETING. SICA SUPPOSEDLY AGREED THAT THE SDM WILL
BE INVITED TO ANY SUBSEQUENT ROUNDTABLE MEETINGS IN
ITS OWN NAME. ZOPPO PLANS TO VISIT LONDON EN ROUTE
TO CAIRO, IN ORDER TO URGE THE SNM TO ATTEND THE FIRST
ROUNDTABLE, IF THE NORTHERN DISSIDENTS HAVE NOT YET
ACCEPTED THEIR INVITATION TO THE EGYPTIAN CAPITAL.

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8. MOHAMED SIAD BARRE: STATING THAT HE HAD KNOWN
THE PRESIDENT FOR SOME 45 YEARS, ZOPPO SAID THAT SIAD
HAS BECOME VERY ERRATIC SINCE HIS 1986 AUTOMOBILE
ACCIDENT. THE RAHENWEYNE LEADER EXPRESSED THE BELIEF
THAT THE PRESIDENT'S MOOD SHIFTS ARE SIDE EFFECTS
PRODUCED BY DRUGS HE HAS TAKEN SINCE THE ACCIDENT.
HE ASSERTED THEY ARE NOT SIMPLY THE CONSEQUENCE
OF ADVANCING AGE OR OF THE ONSET OF SENILITY. ZOPPO
SAID SIAD AND HIS FAMILY ARE NOT AT ALL INTERESTED IN
REFORM. THE SOLE EXCEPTION IS ABDIRAHMAN JAMA BARRE,
WHO TOLD THE FAMILY AFTER RETURNING FROM THIS YEAR'S
IMF/IBRD MEETINGS AND SUBSEQUENT DISCUSSIONS IN ROME
THAT THE REGIME HAD NO CHOICE BUT TO ACCEPT POLITICAL
REFORM.

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9. PROSPECTS: GIVEN THE TENACITY OF TRIBALISM IN
SOMALI POLITICS, AND THE FAILURE OF SIAD'S OPPONENTS
TO AGREE ON A STRATEGY FOR COOPERATION IN A POST-SIAD
SOMALIA, THE ELDER STATESMAN SAID HE FEARED FOR THE
FUTURE. HE WAS PARTICULARLY UPSET WITH THE SNM,
WHICH HE ACCUSED OF TOTALLY IMPRACTICAL SECESSIONIST
AMBITIONS. HIS MESSAGE TO ME WAS A PLEA FOR GREATER
AMERICAN INVOLVEMENT IN SOMALIA'S ACCELERATING QITICAL
EVOLUTION.

BISHOP