KARUNANIDHI: IS THE TAMIL NADU CHIEF MINISTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRAS 01249

LONDON FOR MILLIKEN; CINCPAC ALSO FOR FPA

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF IN CE
SUBJECT: KARUNANIDHI: IS THE TAMIL NADU CHIEF MINISTER
BECOMING THE LTTE'S ELDER STATESMAN?


1. C - ENTIRE TEXT


2. SUMMARY: CHIEF MINISTER KARUNANIDHI'S OBVIOUS TILT
TOWARDS THE LTTE IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD CONTROVERSY AND
DISMAY IN TAMIL NADU, PARTICULARLY IN LIGHT OF THE DMK
LEADER'S STRAINED RELATIONS WITH THE TIGERS IN THE PAST.
SINCE DECEMBER, AND ESPECIALLY IN THE LAST TWO MONTHS,
THE CHIEF MINISTER HAS GONE OUT OF HIS WAY TO
DEMONSTRATE HIS COMMITMENT TO THE TIGERS -- AT WHAT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT POLITICAL COST. NO POLITICAL
FIGURE HERE, LEAST OF ALL FROM THE DMK, CAN EXPLAIN
TO ANYONE'S SATISFACTION THE GAMEBOOK KARUNANIDHI IS
USING. AS HE BECOMES MORE AND MORE OF A "TAMIL EELAM
HARDLINER", SOME MAY FEEL HE IS BURNING BRIDGES
WITH DELHI. WE ARE AT PRESENT BAFFLED.
END SUMMARY



3. TAMIL NADU CHIEF MINISTER KARUNANIDHI'S SUDDEN AND
COMPLETE IDENTIFICATION WITH THE LTTE IS GENERATING STRONG
POLITICAL CONTROVERSY IN THE STATE. RECENT EVIDENCE OF
HIS TILT IN FAVOR OF THE TIGERS ABOUNDS: HIS KIND WORDS
FOR LTTE HOSPITALITY AFTER THEIR ABDUCTION OF TAMIL NADU
FISHERMEN ALLEGEDLY IN SRI LANKAN WATERS AND HIS PRAISE
FOR THE LTTE FOR "PROTECTING" A SECOND
GROUP OF FISHERMEN "CAPTURED" BY THE SRI LANKAN NAVY, HIS
REFUSAL TO PERMIT TAMIL REFUGEES ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER
MILITANT GROUPS TO LAND IN THE STATE, AND HIS
BLATANT REFUSAL TO ATTEND AN IPKF WELCOME RECEPTION IN
MADRAS MARCH 25 (MADRAS 1034). SOME OBSERVERS FEEL THERE
MAY BE A DEEPER DESIGN TO THE CHIEF MINISTER'S PRO-LTTE
STANCE.


4. THE CONTROVERSY HAS SPREAD TO THE FLOOR OF THE TAMIL
NADU LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY- CONGRESS(I) MLA'S, ALONG
WITH THEIR AIADMK ALLIES, CHALLENGED THE CHIEF MINISTER'S
PATRIOTISM FOR NOT ATTENDINO LAST MONTH'S IPKF RECEPTION
AND HIS CRITICISM OF THE BEHAVIOR OF THE IPKF, AND
FOLLOWED THEIR HARSH WORDS WITH A WALKOUT BY ALL CONGRESS
AND AIADMK MLA'S. THE LOCAL PRESS JOINED THE
FRAY BY ALMOST UNIVERSALLY CRITICIZING THE CHIEF
MINISTER'S BEHAVIOR TOWARDS THE IPKF JAWANS. EVEN THE
DMK'S OWN ALLIES, SUCH AS CPI(M) MLA K. RAMANI,
TOOK EXCEPTION TO THE CHIEF MINISTER'S INSULT TO THE
INDIAN ARMY.


5. FEW PUNDITS WOULD ARGUE THAT THE MACHIAVELLIAN
KARUNANIDHI DISPLAYS RELUCTANCE TO CHANGE SIDES WHEN
POLITICAL EXPEDIENCY DICTATES. HOWEVER, HIS CURRENT KIND
WORDS FOR AND BLATANT SUPPORT IN FAVOR OF THE LTTE APPEAR
TO BAFFLE THE DMK'S PARTNER, JANATA DAL, AS WELL AS THE
ADVERSARY CONGRESS(I). UPON REGAINING POWER IN JANUARY
1989, KARUNANIDHI COOPERATED WITH DELHI, MET ON
NUMEROUS OCCASIONS WITH RAJIV GANDHI AND REFRAINED FROM
ANY OVERT CRITICISM OF THE PRIME MINISTER'S SRI LANKAN
POLICIES. WHEN THE NEWLY ELECTED NATIONAL FRONT
GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ITS INTENTION TO WITHDRAW THE IPKF BY
MARCH 31, KARUNANIDHI INSISTED THAT A PACT AMONG
THE RIVAL TAMIL MILITANT GROUPS BE PURSUED.
FOR ALMOST THREE MONTHS, HE ENGAGED IN FRUITLESS
MEDIATION TALKS TO THIS END.


6. THE LTTE HAD NEVER BEEN KARUNANIDHI'S FAVORITE SRI
LANKAN TAMIL MILITANT GROUP, PRINCIPALLY BECAUSE OF THEIR
CLOSE TIES WITH HIS ARCH-RIVAL, THE LATE M.G. RAMACHANDRAN
IN FACT HIS DISDAIN FOR THE GROUP WAS MANIFESTED
OFTEN IN THE PAST. HOWEVER, WHEN THE DMK CAME BACK TO
POWER, THE LTTE MADE OVERTURES TO THE NEW TAMIL
NADU GOVERNMENT, TO WHICH THEY RECEIVED LITTLE RESPONSE.
ONCE THE MEDIATTION TALKS BEGAN IN DECEMBER, AND
SPECIFICALLY DISCUSSIONS BETWEEN THE LTTE'S ANTON BALA-
SINGHAM AND KARUNANIDHI, THE CHIEF MINISTER CHOSE TO
IGNORE THE OTHER GROUPS, ADVISING THEM TO BURY THEIR
DIFFERENCES WITH THE LTTE AND SUPPORT THEIR OBVIOUS POWER
POSITION AND ASSIST IN DEVELOPING A VIABLE TAMIL POLITICAL
ENVIRONMENT. EPRLF LEADERS, INCLUDING TAMIL PROVINCE
CHIEF MINISTER VARADARAJA PERUMAL, ARE BELIEVED TO
HAVE COMPLAINED TO THE GOI THAT KARUNANIDHI HAD TURNED
PARTIAL.


7. HARD EVIDENCE OF THE CHIEF MINISTER'S CHANGE OF
HEART TOWARDS THE LTTE EMERGED AT THE FEBRUARY DMK
STATE CONFERENCE IN TRICHY. WITH HIS NEPHEW, UNION
MINISTER MURASOLI MARAN, PRESENT ON THE DAIS, KARUNANIDHI
HIMSELF READ OUT THE PARTY'S RESOLUTION WHICH ENDORSED
THE LTTE'S BRAVE AND SUCCESSFUL DEFENSE AGAINST THE
INDIAN ARMY.



8. COMMENT: WHAT LIES BEHIND THE CHIEF MINISTER'S
PUZZLING VOLTA FACE? EVEN SOME DMK COLLEAGUES HAVE
CONFESSED TO CONSULATE REPS THAT THEY HAVE NO IDEA,
ALTHOUGH VARIOUS THEORIES ARE BEING DISCUSSED IN
COFFEE HOUSES, NEWSPAPER OFFICES AND PARTY HEADQUARTERS.
WHILE ALL AGREE THAT IT WOULD BE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE
FOR KARUNANIDHI TO CONTINUE OVERT SUPPORT FOR THE
SEVERAL LOSERS AMONG THE SRI LANKAN TAMIL POLITICAL
GROUPS, HIS ENERGETIC AND UNWAVERING AND TOTALLY
UNCRITICAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LTTE'S EVERY MOVE IS
RAISING NUMEROUS EYEBROWS, AND ALIENATING MEMBERS OF
HIS OWN PARTY.


9. ONE EXTREME VIEW, TO WHICH WE DO NOT SUBSCRIBE, IS
THAT KARUNANIDHI IS INTERESTED IN A TAMIL EELAM VARIANT
FOR HIS INDIAN STATE. ANOTHER, PERHAPS MORE CREDIBLE
THEORY, IS THAT THE LTTE HAS THREATENED KARUNANIDHI WITH
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE LEVEL OF MILITANT
VIOLENCE IN TAMIL NADU, ENOUGH PERHAPS TO LEAD TO THE
IMPOSITION OF PRESIDENT'S RULE, IF HE DOESN'T BOOST
THEIR CAUSE. OTHERS POINT OUT THAT THE CHIEF MINISTER,
THOUGH A CHARTER MEMBER, WAS NEVER AN ENTHUSIASTIC
ADHERENT OF THE NATIONAL FRONT (AND IN FACT JUST
ABSENTED HIMSELF FROM THE NATIONAL INTEGRATION COUNCIL
SESSION IN DELHI) AND MAY BE CARVING OUT A PLACE
WHERE HE CAN POSITION HIMSELF IN A POST VP SINGH WORLD.
STILL OTHER LOCAL INTERLOCUTORS POINT TO HIS INCREASING
WITHDRAWAL FROM PERSONAL CONTACT (NO PRIVATE PRESS
INTERVIEWS AND FEW ONE-ON-ONE MEETINGS) AND CONCLUDE
HE IS LOSING HIS ONCE FIRM AND CANNY GRIP ON TAMIL NADU
POLITICAL LIFE. THERE ARE ALSO THOSE WHO CONTINUE
TO BELIEVE THAT HE SINCERELY DEDICATED HIMSELF TO THE
EARLIER NEGOTIATIONS, WANTS TO BRING ABOUT REAL PEACE
AMONG THE SRI LANKAN TAMILS, AND BELIEVES THAT HE
CAN ONLY POSITION HIMSELF TO RESUME THESF DISCUSSIONS
IF HIS CREDIBILITY WITH THE MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER --
THE LTTE -- IS UNQUESTIONED.


10. WE QUICKLY ADMIT THAT WE DON'T KNOW THE ANSWERS.
HOWEVER, WE DO NOT BELIEVE KARUNANIDHI IS CRACKING UP NOR
DO WE THINK THAT HE IS ABOUT TO JOIN A MOVEMFNT FOR A
GREATER TAMIL INDEPENDENT STATE. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT
HE IS UP TO SOMETHING AND IN THE ABSENCE OF HIS CHIEF
CHUM AND ADVISOR, NEPHEW MURASOLI MARAN, IS CONFIDING
IN NO ONE.


TIMBERMAN