Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
90DAMASCUS4736
1990-08-02 15:03:00
SECRET
Embassy Damascus
Cable title:  

SYRIA AND THE IQLIM AL TUFFAH FIGHTING

Tags:  PREL PGOV SY LE IR 
pdf how-to read a cable
R 021503Z AUG 90
FM AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6643
INFO AMEMBASSY AMMAN
AMEMBASSY CAIRO
AMCONSUL JERUSALEM
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY RIYADH
AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DAMASCUS 04736 

LONDON FOR MILLIKAN
PARIS FOR ROSENBLATT

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL PGOV SY LE IR
SUBJECT: SYRIA AND THE IQLIM AL TUFFAH FIGHTING

REF: A) FBIS NC2907093290
B) DAMASCUS 03433
C) FBIS NC3007112690
D) DAMASCUS
E) FBIS NC 2607110790
F) DAMASCUS 4694
G) NICOSIA 4983
H) FBIS NC2907184290
I) NICOSIA 04992

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DAMASCUS 04736

LONDON FOR MILLIKAN
PARIS FOR ROSENBLATT

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL PGOV SY LE IR
SUBJECT: SYRIA AND THE IQLIM AL TUFFAH FIGHTING

REF: A) FBIS NC2907093290
B) DAMASCUS 03433
C) FBIS NC3007112690
D) DAMASCUS
E) FBIS NC 2607110790
F) DAMASCUS 4694
G) NICOSIA 4983
H) FBIS NC2907184290
I) NICOSIA 04992


1. (C) DAMASCUS HAS ADOPTED A LOW PUBLIC PROFILE ON
THE AMAL-HIZBALLAH FIGHTING IN THE IQLIM AL TUFFAH,
DESPITE ITS INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES. SYRIAN
MEDIA HAS GIVEN LITTLE ATTENTION TO THE BATTLES AND THE
SARG APPEARS TO BE TAKING FEW, IF ANY, STEPS TO TRY TO
END IT. THE FLURRY OF PUBLIC DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY BETWEEN
DAMASCUS AND TEHRAN, WHICH FOLLOWED PREVIOUS CLASHES
BETWEEN THE TWO SHIA' MILITIAS HAS NOT OCCURRED. UNLIKE
ITS IRANIAN COUNTERPARTS, THE SARG HAS NOT CALLED FOR A
CEASE-FIRE AMONG THE COMBATANTS. DAMASCUS IS SUPPORTING
THE INTERVENTION OF THE LEBANESE ARMY INTO THE AREA, BUT
PROBABLY ALSO REALIZES THE LAF CAN DO LITTLE TO STOP THE
FIGHTING WITHOUT THE ACQUIESCENCE OF BOTH AMAL AND
HIZBALLAH. INTERESTINGLY, AN ARTICLE IN AN NAHAR, AN
INDEPENDENT WEST BEIRUT NEWSPAPER, PORTRAYED THE FIGHTING
AS AN "UNDECLARED WAR" BETWEEN SYRIA AND IRAN.

--------------
DAMASCUS UNCONCERNED?
--------------


2. (C) DAMASCUS HAS PAID LITTLE PUBLIC ATTENTION IN THE
MEDIA TO THE FIGHTING THUS FAR, FOCUSING INSTEAD ON THE
HRAWI GOVERNMENT'S JULY 11 PLAN TO IMPLEMENT TA'IF. THE
SARG HAS TAKEN NO STEPS AIMED AT HALTING THE FIGHTING.
EVEN THOUGH, THE FIGHTING IS IN AN AREA OF LEBANON WHERE
THERE IS NO CONCENTRATION OF SYRIAN TROOPS, DAMASCUS AND
TEHRAN HAVE BROKERED CEASE-FIRES BETWEEN AMAL AND
HIZBALLAH PREVIOUSLY. DAMASCUS PROBABLY DOES PERCEIVE AN
INTEREST IN STEMMING HIZBALLAH'S ROLE AND ANY GROWTH IN
INFLUENCE AS A RESULT OF THE FIGHTING. IRANIAN FORMIN
VELAYATI CLAIMED IN HIS LETTER TO LEBANESE PRIME MINISTER
HUSS (REF A) THAT IRAN HAS BEEN IN CONTINUOUS CONTACT AND
CONSULTATION WITH THE SARG, BUT EMBASSY DAMASCUS HAS
NOTED A LACK OF PUBLIC DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY. WE HAVE
DETECTED NO SHUTTLING OF IRANIAN OR SYRIAN DIPLOMATS
BETWEEN THE CAPITALS OR INTO LEBANON TO TALK WITH AMAL
AND HIZBALLAH OFFICIALS.


3. (S) EMBASSY HAS ALSO DETECTED NO ATTEMPT BY THE SARG
TO STOP THE FLOW OF ARMS TO THE COMBATANTS. PRESS

ACCOUNTS INDICATE THAT SOME OF DAMASCUS' OTHER LEBANESE
SURROGATES, SUCH AS ELIE HUBAYQA, ARE ASSISTING AMAL,
WHICH PROBABLY INCLUDES SUPPLYING ARMS. IF THE SYRIANS
CAN PREVENT THEIR PROXIES FROM SUPPLYING GENERAL AWN AT A
MOMENT'S NOTICE (REF D),THEY ALMOST CERTAINLY COULD
EXERT THE SAME INFLUENCE ON THEIR PROXIES WHO ARE
SUPPLYING AMAL.


4. (S) DAMASCUS IS ALSO VOID OF ANY RUMORS HINTING THAT
THE SYRIANS MAY HAVE CLOSED THE BORDER TO LEBANON TO SHUT
DOWN THE THE IRANIAN PIPELINE TO HIZBALLAH OR STOPPED THE
FLOW OF ARMS FROM THE BIQA' TO THE SOUTH. CONTROL OF
THESE PIPELINES ARE THE SARG'S PRINCIPAL LEVERAGE OVER
THE IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS AND HIZBALLAH AND ONE
THEY HAVE USED DURING PREVIOUS CLASHES BETWEEN AMAL AND
HIZBALLAH. EARLIER THIS YEAR, DAMASCUS SHUT THE LEBANESE
BORDER TO THE IRANIANS IN PART TO PROTEST IRAN'S
SUPPLYING OF ARMS TO HIZBALLAH. WHEN THE SARG REOPENED
IT, IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS AND THEIR SUPPLIES
ENTERED LEBANON UNDER TIGHTER CONTROLS (REF B). UNDER
THESE CONDITIONS, THE SYRIANS SHOULD BE AWARE OF WHAT IS
CROSSING THE BORDER INTO LEBANON. (COMMENT: BECAUSE OF
ITS CONTROL OVER THE PIPELINE, THE SARG MAY NOT HAVE BEEN
CAUGHT TOTALLY OFF GUARD BY THE OUTBREAK OF FIGHTING
SEVERAL WEEKS LATER, REALIZING THAT HIZBALLAH HAD BEEN
RESUPPLIED.)


5. (C) THE SARG HAS ALSO ALLOWED ITS ALLY, AMAL LEADER
NABIH BERRI TO PUBLICLY CALL FOR THE REMOVAL OF IRANIAN
FORCES FROM LEBANON. BERRI HAS MADE SEVERAL STATEMENTS
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS REITERATING THIS POINT
WITH LITTLE DETECTABLE REACTION FROM THE SARG. AMAL
OFFICIALS HAVE ACCUSED IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS OF
PARTICIPATING IN THE FIGHTING AND HAVE EVEN BLAMED THEM
FOR ESCALATING IT (REF C).

--------------
WHAT DAMASCUS HAS DONE
--------------


6. (C) THE SARG HAS ANNOUNCED ITS SUPPORT FOR THE
INTERVENTION OF THE LEBANESE ARMY (LAF) INTO THE IQLIM AL
TUFFAH IN ORDER TO HALT THE FIGHTING (REF F). LEBANESE
ARMY COMMANDER GENERAL LAHUD WAS IN DAMASCUS OVER THE
WEEKEND MEETING WITH GENERAL SHIHABI, ACCORDING TO
LEBANESE PRESS REPORTS (REF G). THE PLAN TO INTERVENE IN
THE IQLIM FIGHTING PROBABLY WAS A TOPIC OF CONVERSATION,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LAF HAS FEW TROOPS AND WOULD BE HARD
PRESSED TO GET INVOLVED BOTH IN THE IQLIM AND AID IN THE
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE JULY 11 PLAN IN BEIRUT.

--------------
AN "UNDECLARED WAR"
--------------


7. (U) AN NAHAR, AN INDEPENDENT WEST BEIRUT NEWSPAPER,
PUBLISHED AN ARTICLE ON JULY 25 ENTITLED "THE IQLIM AL
TUFFAH WAR IS BETWEEN SYRIA AND IRAN" (REF E). THE
ARTICLE QUOTED SOURCES CLOSE TO DAMASCUS AS SAYING "THE
FIGHTING...BETWEEN 'HIZBALLAH' AND 'THE AMAL MOVEMENT' IN
IQLIM AL TUFFAH...IS ACTUALLY AN UNDECLARED WAR BETWEEN
THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN AND SYRIA." THE SYRIAN
SOURCES BASED THIS CLAIM ON THREE FACTORS:

-- THE FAILURE OF AN INDIRECT AGREEMENT BETWEEN IRAN AND
THE U.S., WHICH HAD BEEN BROKERED BY SYRIAN FORMIN
SHARA', EARLIER THIS YEAR;

-- IRAN'S FEARS OF THE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR ARAB
RECONCILIATION; AND

-- HIZBALLAH AND IRAN'S FEARS THAT THEY WILL BE LEFT OUT
OF THE PLANNING FOR LEBANON'S FUTURE.


8. (C) THE ARTICLE ALSO PRESENTS THE IRANIAN VIEWS ON
WHAT LED TO THE ABOVE PROBLEMS. THE IRANIAN SOURCES
BELIEVE THE SYRIAN SPONSORED US-IRANIAN AGREEMENT FAILED
BECAUSE OF "DAMASCUS' CONNIVANCE WITH WASHINGTON" AND
DAMASCUS 'S FALLING INTO THE U.S. TRAP AND ITS (DAMASCUS)
IGNORANCE OF THE FACT THAT "U.S. POLICY TOWARD THE
IRANIAN ISLAMIC REVOLUTION...HAS NOT CHANGED." SYRIA'S
RAPPROCHEMENT WITH EGYPT AND THE NEVERENDING ATTEMPTS TO
RECONCILE SYRIA AND IRAQ TRIGGERED THE SECOND IRANIAN
FEAR. THE JULY 11 PLAN'S EXCLUSION OF THE SOUTHERN
SUBURBS UNTIL "ALL OBSTACLES, THE MOST IMPORTANT OF WHICH
ARE THE FUNDAMENTALIST MOVEMENTS, ARE OVERCOME"
HEIGHTENED THE LAST IRANIAN CONCERN.


9. (C) ACCORDING TO THE ARTICLE, IT WAS THE IRANIAN
FUNDAMENTALIST ANALYSIS OF THE SYRIAN STAND CONCERNING
LEBANON THAT "PROMPTED THEM (IRAN AND HIZBALLAH) TO
ESCALATE THE WAR IN THE IQLIM AL -TUFFAH WHERE SYRIA HAS
NO DIRECT PRESENCE AND WHERE ITS ALLIES CAN NOT STAND
ALONE AND ... WIN." THE ARTICLE STATES THE AIM OF THE
FIGHTING IS TO SEIZE CONTROL OF TERRITORY AND MAKE IRAN
AND ITS ALLIES HEARD IN LEBANON AND THE REGION.
(COMMENT: LEBANESE PRESS HAS REPORTED THAT DAMASCUS HAS
ASKED THE TRIPARTITE COMMITTEE TO INCLUDE HIZBALLAH IN
THE EXPANDED LEBANESE CABINET. THE SARG DID SPECIFY,
HOWEVER, THAT HIZBALLAH MUST FIRST ACCEPT TA'IF. IN
OTHER WORDS, SARG IS DEMANDING THAT HIZBALLAH AND GENERAL
AWN LIVE UP TO THE SAME CONDITIONS -- AN UNLIKELY
EVENT.) (REF I)


10. (C) DAMASCUS PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN ITS PUBLIC
AMBIVALENCE TOWARDS THE FIGHTING AS LONG AS AMAL HOLDS
ITS OWN AGAINST HIZBALLAH, WHICH RECENT IRANIAN AND .
HIZBALLAH CALLS FOR A CEASE-FIRE SEEM TO INDICATE. THE
SARG CAN HIDE ITS INACTION BEHIND THE JUSTIFICATION THAT
IT HAS NO TROOPS IN THE AREA TO INTERVENE.

-

11. (C) THE CURRENT WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL ISRAELI
REACTION TO THE CONTINUED FIGHTING IN THE IQLIM. SO FAR,
NEITHER THE SARG OR THE SYRIAN MEDIA HAS MADE AN ISSUE OF
RECENT ISRAELI STATEMENTS THREATENING POSSIBLE
INTERVENTION SHOULD THE FIGHTING THREATEN ISRAEL'S
SECURITY (REF H). THE ISRAELIS MAY BE LOOKING CLOSELY AT
THE PLO'S PRESENCE AND ACTIVITIES IN SOUTHERN LEBANON IN
THIS REGARD.


12. (C) THE AN NAHAR ARTICLE NO DOUBT GOES TO FAR IN
CASTING THE FIGHTING IN THE IQLIM AS ENTIRELY A "WAR"
BETWEEN SYRIA AND IRAN BUT TENSIONS BETWEEN THE TWO
SPONSORS PROBABLY ARE A FACTOR. THE ARTICLE DOES
CORRECTLY HIGHLIGHT MANY OF THE RECENT EVENTS WHICH HAVE
CAUSED STRAINS BETWEEN DAMASCUS AND TEHRAN. THE TWO
COUNTRIES ULTIMATELY ARE AT ODDS IN THEIR VISION FOR
LEBANON'S FUTURE.

DJEREJIAN