CZECHOSLOVAKIA'S QUIET REVOLUTION AND ITS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRAGUE 08343

BRUSSELS FOR USEC - AMBASSADOR NILES
DEPARTMENT PASS TO ERIKA SCHLAGER CSCE COMMISSION
USIA FOR EU (OLASON, PENDERGRAST, JORIA); INFO DD
(KNOPP),C(PISTOR)

E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL CSCE CZ
SUBJECT: CZECHOSLOVAKIA'S QUIET REVOLUTION AND ITS
PROSPECTS


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. SUMMARY. CZECHOSLVOAKIA'S "QUIET"
REVOLUTION, WITH THE CIVIC FORUM IN ITS
VANGUARD, HAS REALLY ONLY JUST BEGUN, BUT IT
HAS REACHED AN IMPORTANT MILESTONE IN FORCING
THE REGIME TO ENGAGE IN A DIALOGUE. THE FORUM'S
REPRESENTATIVES DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE LONG
FIGHT AHEAD BEFORE THE LEGAL AND TACTICAL
ROADBLOCKS THE CPCZ WILL PUT IN THE WAY OF
ACHIEVING SUCH GOALS AS FREE ELECTIONS CAN BE
OVERCOME AND THE PRESENT TOTALITARIAN SYSTEM
CAN BE GRADUALLY TRANSFORMED INTO A
PARLIAMENTARY DEMOCRACY. END SUMMARY.

A NON-VIOLENT REVOLUTION
--------------


3. WHAT HAS OCCURRED IN CZECHOSLOVAKIA OVER
THE PAST 12 DAYS IS NOTHING SHORT OF A POPULAR
REVOLUTION, BUT A NON-VIOLENT ONE. IT IS A
REVOLUTION SPARKED BY STUDENTS AND ARTISTS IN
REACTION TO THE BRUTAL SUPPRESSION ON NOVEMBER
17 OF A STUDENT DEMONSTRATION AND THEN JOINED
BY WORKERS AND THE GREAT MASS OF THE PEOPLE.
LIKE THE PRAGUE SPRING OF 1968, THIS REVOLUTION
HAS ITS ROOTS IN THE GRADUAL LOSS OF FEAR BY
THE MAN IN THE STREET OF REGIME REPRESSION,
BUT DIFFERS FROM 1968 IN THAT IT ORIGINATED
FROM WITHIN THE YOUNGER GENERATION AND NOT SO
MUCH FROM REFORM ELEMENTS WITHIN THE CPCZ. IT
THUS IS MORE OF A REJECTION OF THE 41 YEARS
OF THE COUNTRY'S COMMUNIST PAST.

THE FORUM: A LOOSE COALITION
--------------


4. BUT IF THIS REVOLUTION BEGAN SPONTANEOUSLY, ITS
POPULAR FOCAL POINT QUICKLY BECAME THE "CIVIC FORUM,"
SYMBOLIZED BY PLAYWRIGHT VACLAV HAVEL. THE FORUM
HAS ARTICULATED POPULAR DEMANDS BUT DECLINED BECOMING
A POLITICAL PARTY. ITS GREATEST SUCCESS, SO FAR, HAS BEEN
IN MOBILIZING MASS DEMONSTRATIONS AND SUPPORT FOR A
GENERAL STRIKE. THESE TOPPLED THE OLD COMMUNIST
PARTY LEADERSHIP AND FORCED THE GOVERNMENT (AND THE
PARTY STANDING BEHIND IT) RELUCTANTLY INTO A DIALOGUE.


5. THE FORUM'S REPRESENTATIVES ARE CAREFUL NOT TO
EXAGGERATE THE CONCESSIONS, SPECIFICALLY AN END TO
THE LEGAL BASIS OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY'S "LEADING
ROLE," THAT THIS DIALOGUE HAS PRODUCED UP TO NOW.
THE FORUM'S OBJECTIVES ARE MUCH BROADER. IT WANTS
NOTHING LESS THAN TO PREPARE THE GROUNDWORK FOR FREE
ELECTIONS AND CONVERSION OF THE PRESENT
TOTALITARIAN SYSTEM TO DEMOCRACY. IT IS OBVIOUS THAT
NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE REGIME TO ACHIEVE THIS HAVE ONLY
BEGUN; THAT THEY WILL BE COMPLEX. EVEN AFTER THE
GOVERNMENT PRODUCES A NEW COALITION OF "EXPERTS" ON
DECEMBER 3 AS PRIME MINISTER ADAMEC HAS PROMISED, THE
FORUM EXPECTS DELAYING TACTICS, PROVOCATIONS AND
ATTEMPTS TO PLAY ON ITS INTERNAL DIVISIONS.


6. THOSE DIVISIONS ARE VERY REAL. REPRESENTED WITHIN
THE FORUM ARE POLITICAL GROUPINGS THAT RANGE FROM
REFORM COMMUNIST (THE RENEWAL GROUP) TO LIBERAL
(THE DEMOCRATIC INITIATIVE). SLOVAKS ARE REPRESENTED
BY THEIR OWN SEPARATE PRO-DEMOCRACY ORGANIZATION,
THE PUBLIC AGAINST VIOLENCE. STUDENT GROUPS WHICH
BEGAN THE STRIKE FOR CHANGE SEEM IRRITATED THAT THE
FORUM HAS TAKEN OVER THE PRO-DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT
FROM THEM. WORKERS, AFTER FLEXING THEIR MUSCLES IN THE
NOVEMBER 27 GENERAL STRIKE, SEEM READIER TO SUPPORT
MORE INDUSTRIAL ACTION THAN THE INTELLECTUALS AND
PROFESSIONALS HEADING THE FORUM.


7. THE FORUM IS TRYING TO PLAY THESE DIVISIONS DOWN
BY EMPHASIZING ITS TRANSITIONAL, NON-POLITICAL
CHARACTER AND BY KEEPING ITS SUPPORTERS' ATTENTION
ON ITS LONGER TERM GOALS FOR SOCIETY: A MIXED
ECONOMY, A PLURALISTIC POLITICAL SYSTEM AND
CZECHOSLOVAKIA'S INTEGRATION INTO WESTERN EUROPE.
INTERESTINGLY, THE FORUM'S SEVEN CHAPTER PROGRAM
STATEMENT (PRAGUE 8312) NOT ONCE MENTIONS THE WORD
"SOCIALISM."

THE COMMUNIST PARTY, DOWN BUT NOT OUT
--------------


8. IN LESS THAN TWO WEEKS OF THIS REVOLUTION, THE
CPCZ' AUTHORITY AND CONTROL OF SOCIETY HAS BEEN
ENORMOUSLY ERODED. INTERNAL SPLITS HAVE DEVELOPED.
A REFORM-MINDED PARTY GROUP HAS SET UP THE
"DEMOCRATIC FORUM," CALLING FOR A RE-EVALUATION OF
1968 AND RE-ADMISSION OF PURGED PRAGUE SPRING
FIGURES. THE ELIMINATION OF PARTY CONTROL OVER THE
MEDIA HAS BEEN DRAMATIC, AS TELEVISION AND RADIO NEWS-
CASTERS OVERNIGHT BEGAN TO FUNCTION LIKE THEIR
WESTERN COUNTERPARTS. THE PARTY HAS FORESWORN USE
OF FORCE IN A CENTRAL COMMITTEE RESOLUTION, THOUGH
QUALIFYING THIS COMMITMENT BY REFERRING TO A NEED
TO DEFEND LIFE, PROPERTY AND "THE FUNDAMENTALS OF
SOCIALISM."


9. ALTHOUGH REELING, THE PARTY IS NOT A SPENT
FORCE, HOWEVER, AND IT WILL NOT WILLINGLY
COMMIT POLITICAL SUICIDE BY MOVING TO FREE
ELECTIONS. IN A SPEECH ON NOVEMBER 28, THE
NEW GENERAL SECRETARY KAREL URBANEK HAS CALLED
ON HIS CADRES TO GO ON THE OFFENSIVE AND SEEK
TO REGAIN CONTROL OF THE NOW LARGELY REFORM-
MINDED MEDIA. HE HAS REJECTED RECENT CALLS BY
THE FORUM TO ABOLISH THE PEOPLE'S MILITIA,
REMOVE PARTY FIGURES AS FACTORY MANAGERS AND
ELIMINATE BASIC PARTY ORGANIZATIONS IN
ENTERPRISES. URBANEK PLANS TO TRAVEL TO MOSCOW
IN EARLY DECEMBER AND WILL CERTAINLY BE SEEKING
SOME SIGN OF GORBACHEV'S SUPPORT FOR HIS PARTY
AND ITS FUTURE.


10. DESPITE ITS DISARRAY, THE CPCZ STILL HOLDS
SOME STRONG CARDS. THE PARTY STILL DOMINATES
IMPORTANT SOCIETAL INSTITUTIONS, INCLUDING THE
SECURITY FORCES, AND STILL IS THE PREDOMINANT
FORCE IN THE NATIONAL FRONT, AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SO EVEN AFTER ITS LEGAL BASIS FOR THAT
CONTROL IS ELIMINATED. IT IS NO ACCIDENT THAT
THE REGIME HAS CHOSEN THE FRONT AS THE FRAMEWORK
FOR DIALOGUE WITH THE CIVIC FORUM, THEREBY
TRYING TO PRESENT THE FORUM AS THE "OPPOSITION"
TO ESTABLISHED, PARTY-CONTROLLED INSTITUTIONS.


WHERE THE REVOLUTION IS HEADED
--------------


11. VALTR KOMAREK, AN ECONOMIST TOUTED BY SOME AS
POSSIBLE MINISTERIAL CANDIDATE IN A NEW COALITION
GOVERNMENT, WAS ASKED THIS WEEK HOW LONG IT WOULD
TAKE CZECHOSLOVAKIA TO CONVERT INTO A WESTERN-STYLE
DEMOCRACY. HE RESPONDED THAT THE COUNTRY DID NOT NEED
TO RECEIVE DEMOCRACY IN DRIBS AND DRABS; THE PEOPLE
COULD SWALLOW IT WHOLE. IF THE COMMUNISTS CAN BE
FORCED TO LET THE COUNTRY'S LAWS AND INSTITUTIONS
CONFORM TO THE PEOPLE'S WILL, HE SAID, CZECHOSLOVAKIA
COULD RESUME ITS REFORMIST, DEMOCRATIC TRADITIONS
ALMOST OVERNIGHT. THAT IS AN ASSESSMENT THE
EMBASSY SHARES.



12. THE BRAKE ON THIS TRANSITION WILL BE THE
ONE APPLIED BY THE PRESENT REGIME'S LEADERSHIP AS
IT MANEUVERS TO DELAY THE DATE OF REFORMS,
PARTICULARLY FREE ELECTIONS. THE REGIME HAS A NUMBER
OF ROADBLOCKS, POLITICAL AND LEGAL, IT CAN PUT IN THE
WAY. AS GENERAL SECRETARY OF THE SOCIALIST PARTY,
JAN SKODA, HAS POINTED OUT TO US, MOVING UP THE
DATE OF ELECTIONS WILL REQUIRE A TWO-THIRDS VOTE
OF THE FEDERAL ASSEMBLY. THIS IS SOMETHING THE
ASSEMBLY, A MAJORITY OF WHOSE MEMBERS ARE COMMUNIST
AND LIKELY TO BE VOTED OUT, MAY BE UNREADY TO AGREE
TO. HOWEVER, THE CZECH AND SLOVAK TENDENCY TOWARDS
CONSENSUS AND LOSS OF LEGITIMACY BY THE CPCZ
HIERARCHY SUGGEST THAT PARLIAMENTARIANS AS WELL
AS OTHER FUNCTIONARIES WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO
SHOW "REFORMIST" COLORS.


13. QUICK ELECTIONS ARE NOT NECESSARILY IN THE CIVIC
FORUM'S INTEREST. MANY OF THE POLITICAL GROUPS IT
REPRESENTS ARE ONLY IN AN EMBRYONIC STATE AND WILL
NEED MORE TIME TO ORGANIZE. IN THE MEANTIME, AS
THE FORUM'S LIST OF DEMANDS SUBMITTED TO ADAMEC ON
NOVEMBER 28 (SEPTEL) INDICATES, IT WILL FOCUS ON
THE PERSONNEL AND LEGAL CHANGES IN THE SYSTEM
NECESSARY TO ASSURE A SUCCESSFUL TRANSITION
TOWARDS DEMOCRACY.


RUSSELL