CASTRO PROJECTING IMAGE OF OPTIMISM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HAVANA 06412

CINCLANT FOR POLAD

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV PREL CU
SUBJECT: CASTRO PROJECTING IMAGE OF OPTIMISM


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.

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2. SUMMARY: A RECURRING THEME IN FIDEL CASTRO'S
SPEECHES SINCE THE END OF THE OCHOA/ABRANTES
SCANDALS LAST SUMMER HAS BEEN THAT THE
TRAUMA HAS STRENGTHENED THE GOC RATHER THAN
WEAKENED IT. KEEPING A HEAVY SCHEDULE OF VISITS
TO CONSTRUCTION AND INDUSTRIAL SITES IN HAVANA
AND CENTRAL CUBA, HE HAS CLAIMED THAT CUBA
IS MAKING GREAT STRIDES TOWARD "DOING MORE WITH
LESS" AND REMEDYING ITS ECONOMIC PROBLEMS. HE
AND THE PARTY-CONTROLLED PRESS HAVE ALSO
ENDEAVORED TO PORTRAY CUBA AS MUCH BETTER OFF
THAN THOSE SOCIALIST COUNTRIES EXPERIMENTING
WITH "UNWISE" POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC REFORMS.
COUNTERING AN IMPRESSION OF ISOLATION IN THE
SOCIALIST WORLD, OFFICIAL MEDIA HAVE ALSO
BEEN STRESSING CUBA'S CLOSE TIES TO GDR AND
CHINA. THE JAWBONING WILL PROBABLY HAVE LIMITED
EFFECT ON PUBLIC ATTITUDES. END SUMMARY.

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3. FIDEL CASTRO HAS MADE, EVEN FOR HIM, A
LARGE NUMBER OF PUBLIC APPEARANCES AND SPEECHES
SINCE THE COMMUNIST PARTY DAILY, GRANMA, ON
SEPTEMBER 2 DECLARED THE OCHOA/ABRANTES CASES
CLOSED AND URGED THE NATION TO MOVE FORWARD
WITH THE LESSONS LEARNED OVER THE SUMMER.
CASTRO HAS TRAVELED AROUND HAVANA, MATANZAS
(AT THE VARADERO AIRPORT OPENING),AND THE
CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE OF VILLA CLARA TO SPEAK
MOSTLY TO CROWDS OF CONSTRUCTION AND INDUSTRIAL
WORKERS. MOST OF THE SPEECHES HAVE BEEN BROADCAST
OVER PRIME-TIME TV AND CARRIED IN GRANMA.

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4. AT EACH STOP, CASTRO HAS BEEN PREACHING
BASICALLY THE SAME LINE: CUBA HAS EMERGED FROM
THE SCANDALS STRONGER THAN EVER AND IS MAKING
IMPORTANT PROGRESS TOWARD RESOLVING THE VARIOUS
PROBLEMS IT FACES. SPEAKING AT AN IMPROMPTU
PRESS CONVERENCE AFTER A PEP TALK TO THE BLAS
ROCA CONSTRUCTION CONTINGENT ON SEPTEMBER 30,
CASTRO DECLARED THAT "THE SETBACKS WE HAD
WERE TURNED INTO VICTORIES." HE WAS PARTICULARLY
INTENT ON PORTRAYING THE "TRAUMATIC PROCESS" OF
CLEANING UP THE INTERIOR MINISTRY (MININT)
AS MAKING THE ORGANIZATION STRONGER, MORE
DEDICATED AND MORE EFFICIENT. MININT IS NOW
"DOING A GREAT JOB ...AND WILL BE A VERY IMPORTANT
INSTRUMENT OF THE REVOLUTION."

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5. CASTRO ALSO HAS STATED THAT CUBA "HAS FEWER
PROBLEMS" THAN ANY OTHER SOCIALIST COUNTRY EXCEPT
PERHAPS NORTH KOREA. HE HAS REPEATEDLY EXPRESSED
DISDAIN FOR THE REFORMS OF THE "BEGINNER CAPITALISTS"
AND "BOURGEOUIS DEMOCRATS" IN EASTERN EUROPE
(I.E., PRO-REFORM SOVIETS, POLES AND HUNGARIANS).
THE CUBAN MEDIA, TAKING CASTRO'S CUE, HAVE
PUBLISHED ARTICLES ALMOST DAILY DEPICTING THE
CHAOS CAUSED BY THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC
REFORMS IN THOSE COUNTRIES. ON A TYPICAL DAY,
GRANMA REPORTS ON THE SOVIET UNION'S NATIONALIST
AND LABOR STRIFE, POLAND'S SERIOUS ECONOMIC
PLIGHT, AND HUNGARY'S DESTABILIZING SHIFT TOWARD
A MULTI-PARTY SYSTEM.

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6. CUBA, ON THE OTHER HAND, IS DOING QUITE
WELL, ACCORDING TO CASTRO. WHILE REMAINING
LOYAL TO SOCIALIST PRECEPTS, IT IS "DOING MORE
WITH LESS." HAVANA HAS FEWER RESOURCES THAN
EVER BEFORE AND ONLY HALF THE FOREIGN RESERVES
IT USED TO HAVE, CASTRO SAID, BUT THE NATION IS
"COMPENSATING WITH THE SPIRIT OF WORK." TO COUNTER
THE IMPRESSION OF CUBA'S ISOLATION IN THE SOCIALIST
WORLD, CASTRO AND THE MEDIA HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
COUNTRY'S RELATIONS WITH CLOSE AND HELPFUL
ALLIES. THE GOC HAS SENT DELEGATIONS TO EAST
GERMANY, CZECHOSLOVAKIA, BULGARIA, LIBYA AND
NORTH KOREA IN THE PAST TWO MONTHS TO FIRM UP
BILATERAL TIES. CUBA HAS INVESTED PARTICULAR ENERGY
IN IMPROVING RELATIONS WITH THE PRC, HAILING
EVERY DEVELOPMENT (INCLUDING CASTRO'S ATTENDANCE
AT THE CHINESE NATIONAL DAY RECEPTION IN HAVANA)
AS A SIGN OF CLOSER TIES.

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7. AT THE SAME TIME, CASTRO IS PROJECTING OPTIMISM
IN HIS ABILITY TO COUNTER WHAT THE GOC IS
BILLING AS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN U.S.
AGGRESSION AGAINST CUBA: THE LAUNCHING OF TV
MARTI. IN RESPONSE TO A QUESTION AT THE
SEPTEMBER 30 PRESS CONFERENCE, CASTRO SAID CUBA
HAD A STRONG FIGHTING SPIRIT AND WAS READY TO
"GIVE A GOOD CHUNK OF IT TO THOSE YANKIS."
WHILE SAYING THIS, HE FORMED HIS HANDS INTO A
SHAPE SUGGESTING A GUN AIMED AT AN IMAGINARY TARGET
IN THE SKY.

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8. CASTRO HAS EVEN BOASTED ABOUT HIS HEALTH.
HE ADMITTED THAT LAST SUMMER'S SCANDALS CAUSED
HIM GREAT BITTERNESS, BUT HE SAID HE DID NOT
LET IT OVERCOME HIM. "I ACTED WITH EQUANIMITY,"
HE SAID, ADDING, "I AM VERY WELL. I WORK A LOT
BUT THIS IS COMPENSATED BY THE SATISFACTION I
FEEL WHEN I SEE THE SPIRIT OF SACRIFICE
EVERYWHERE."

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9. COMMENT: GROUPS LIKE THE BLAS ROCA CONTINGENT,
A MODEL WORK UNIT THAT ENJOYS PREFERENTIAL
ACCESS TO HOUSING AND FOOD, ARE AMONG THE
MOST LIKELY TO ACCEPT CASTRO'S OPTIMISTIC
"MAKE-DO" ASSESSMENT, AS ARE OTHER WORKERS IN PRIORITY
INDUSTRIES THAT THE COMANDANTE HAS BEEN VISITING.
OVERALL, HOWEVER, THE JAWBONING WILL LIKELY
HAVE LITTLE EFFECT. THE MESSAGE IS THAT
DOMESTIC POLICIES WILL REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED
AND THAT THE COUNTRY WILL SIMPLY TIGHTEN ITS
BELT. NEITHER THIS NOR THE NEWS THAT MININT
WILL NOW BE EVEN MORE EFFECTIVE THAN IN THE
PAST ARE LIKELY TO INSPIRE JOY. STILL, CASTRO IS
TRYING TO MAKE A VIRTUE OF THE FACT THAT
DESPITE SHORTAGES IN CUBA OF FLOUR, GASOLINE,
MEDICINES, AND MANY OTHER ITEMS, THE PEOPLE
REMAIN FED AND AT WORK AND THERE IS NO
INFLATION NOR SOCIAL "DISINTEGRATION" AS IN THE
"BEGINNING CAPITALIST" STATES.

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10. CASTRO'S PUBLIC PUSH ALSO SUGGESTS AN
EAGERNESS TO REPAIR THE PRESTIGE -- THE
"MAGIC HOLD" HE HAS ENJOYED OVER HIS PEOPLE --
THAT APPARENTLY WAS ERODED BY LAST SUMMER'S
SCANDALS.


TAYLOR