WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO THE LTTE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 COLOMBO 02434

DEPT ALSO FOR NEA/INS - JBARNES

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: KPRP PREL PGOV PINR PINS PTER CE IN
SUBJECT: WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO THE LTTE?

REFS: (A) COLOMBO 2392; (B) COLOMBO 2052;
(C) COLOMBO 1957



1. CONFIDENTIAL -- ENTIRE TEXT.


2. THIS REPORT IS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT
OF THE 1989 POST REPORTING PLAN.


3. SUMMARY: THERE IS STILL STRONG SUPPORT FOR
THE LIBERATION TIGERS OF TAMIL EELAM (LTTE)
AMONG THE 1.5 MILLION TAMILS IN SRI LANKA'S
NORTH AND EAST, WHO SEE THE TIGERS AS THE
DEFENDERS OF LEGITIMATE TAMIL MINORITY RIGHTS.
AT THE SAME TIME, THERE IS WIDE AGREEMENT AMONG
LTTE SUPPORTERS AND DETRACTORS THAT THE TIME
HAS COME FOR THE TIGERS TO LAY ASIDE THEIR WEAPONS
AND PURSUE THEIR OBJECTIVES THROUGH DEMOCRATIC
MEANS. POLITICALLY, THE LTTE'S STILL DEEP
RESERVOIR OF SUPPORT IS LITTLE THREATENED
BY INDIA'S THREE TAMIL MILITANT ALLIES. THE
MORE HARDLINE EELAM REVOLUTIONARY ORGANIZATION
OF STUDENTS (EROS) OWES MUCH OF ITS NEW-
FOUND POPULARITY TO ITS CLOSE ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LTTE, AND THROUGH THIS GROUP THE LTTE
MAY BE LOOKING FOR A WAY TO MODERATE ITS
STANCE. MILITARILY, THE LTTE HAS BEEN WEAKENED
BY 18 MONTHS OF FIGHTING THE IPKF. YET IT
CONTINUES TO RECEIVE NEW RECRUITS AND IT
APPEARS TO HAVE THE MEANS OF CONTINUING TO
ACQUIRE ARMS AND AMMUNITION. THE STRONG
CONVICTIONS OF THE LTTE LEADERS AND THEIR
DISTRUST OF INDIAN MOTIVES HAVE MUCH TO DO
WITH THE GROUP'S INTRANSIGENCE. THERE ARE,
HOWEVER, INDICATIONS THAT THE LTTE WOULD
AGAIN LIKE TO NEGOTIATE. IN THE VIEW OF THE
OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF TAMILS IN THE NORTH
EAST WITH HHOM WE HAVE SPOKEN, TALKS WITH
THE TIGERS OFFER THE BEST HOPE OF FORGING
A LASTING PEACE IN THE REGION. END SUMMARY.


4. THE LIBERATION TIGERS OF TAMIL EELAM (LTTE)
STILL HAVE STRONG SUPPORT AMONG THE 1.5 MILLION
TAMILS IN SRI LANKA'S NORTH AND EAST, WHERE
THEY ARE SEEN AS FIGHTERS IN A LEGITIMATE
STRUGGLE FOR TAMIL MINORITY RIGHTS. NOT ALL
WHO SUPPORT THE GROUP AGREE WITH ITS SINGLE-
MINDED INSISTENCE ON A SEPARATE STATE, BUT
FEW TAKE ISSUE WITH ITS DECISION TO TAKE UP
ARMS, AND THERE IS STRONG SYMPATHY FOR LTTE
MEMBERS BECAUSE OF THEIR WILLINGNESS TO DIE
FOR A CAUSE MOST BELIEVE IS JUST.


--------------
SUPPORT STRONGEST IN THE NORTH,
SIGNIFICANT IN THE EAST
--------------


5. LTTE SUPPORT IS MOST EVIDENT IN JAFFNA
AND THE NORTHERN WANNI, WHERE LARGE NUMBERS
OF THE POPULACE KNOW OF THE LTTE CADRES'
ACTIVITIES AND CONCEAL THEIR KNOWLEDGE FROM
THE AUTHORITIES. "OUTSIDE THE TOWNS (IN THE
WANNI) THEY'RE EVERYWHERE", JAFFNA MUNICIPAL
COMMISSIONER AND NEWLY APPOINTED KILINOCHCHI
GOVERNMENT AGENT ANTON ALFRED SAID. "THE PEOPLE
BRING THEM FOOD, AND SHELTER THE LTTE CADRES",
HE ADDED.


6. IN TRINCOMALEE AND BATTICALOA IN THE FORMER
EASTERN PROVINCE, THE INDIAN PEACE KEEPING FORCE
(IPKF) AND ITS TAMIL MILITANT ALLIES, THE
EELAM PEOPLE'S REVOLUTIONARY LIBERATION FRONT
(EPRLF),THE TAMIL EELAM LIBERATION ORGANIZATION
(TELO),AND THE EELAM NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC
LIBERATION FRONT (ENDLF),HAVE KILLED MANY
LTTE CADRES AND DRIVEN MANY MORE FROM THE TOWNS
INTO THE COUNTRYSIDE. YET THERE, TOO, SUPPORT
FOR THE LTTE IS STILL THE NORM. ALFRED
ADDED THAT MEMBERS OF THE EPRLF-DOMINATED
PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT HEADQUARTERED IN
TRINCOMALEE CANNOT MOVE OUTSIDE OF THE TOWN
FOR FEAR OF LTTE AMBUSH.


7. THE TIGERS HAVE PARTICULARLY STRONG
SUPPORT AMONG THE "UNDER-4O" AGE GROUP. BUT
THERE IS ALSO SYMPATHY FOR THE LTTE AMONG OLDER
PERSONS WHO HAVE SEEN HOPES FOR THEIR CHILDREN
DISAPPOINTED, DUE TO CIRCUMSTANCES THEY ATTRIBUTE
TO SINHALA-CHAUVINIST POLICIES OF SUCCESSIVE
POST-INDEPENDENCE SRI LANKAN GOVERNMENTS.
ONE SIGNIFICANT BLOCK OF DETRACTORS THE LTTE
HAS AMONG TAMILS IN THE NORTH AND EAST ARE THE
FAMILY MEMBERS AND FELLOW CADRES OF THE ESTIMATED
700 RIVAL TAMIL MILITANTS THE LTTE HAS KILLED
SINCE 1986.


--------------
LITTLE THREAT TO POTENTIAL
ELECTORAL STRENGTH
--------------


8. IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL ELECTORAL SUPPORT,
THE LTTE'S DOMINANT POSITION IS LITTLE THREATENED
BY THE THREE MILITANT GROUPS INDIA HAS SOUGHT
TO INSTALL AS AN ALTERNATIVE TAMIL LEADERSHIP.
IN JAFFNA, WHERE 2,000 CIVILIAN DEATHS AT THE
HANDS OF THE IPKF DURING ITS OCTOBER 1987
OFFENSIVE HAVE LEFT DEEP SCARS, MEMBERS OF THE
EPRLF, TELO AND ENDLF ARE WIDELY THOUGHT OF AS
TRAITORS. AND IN THE EAST, WHERE A LARGER
MEASURE OF GRASSROOTS SUPPORT EXISTS FOR THESE
GROUPS, THE INABILITY OF THE PROVINCIAL
GOVERNMENT TO EFFECT CHANGE, AND THE CENTRAL
GOVERNMENT'S APPARENT INDIFFERENCE TO THE
EPRLF'S CALL FOR A POSTPONEMENT OF THE JULY 5
REFERENDUM ON THE MERGER OF THE NORTH AND
EAST IS UNDERMINING CONFIDENCE IN THE PROVINCIAL
GOVERNMENT, ACCORDING TO PUBLIC OFFICIALS AND
EPRLF MEMBERS.


9. LEADERS OF THE EPRLF, TELO, THE EELAM
REVOLUTIONARY ORGANIZATION OF STUDENTS (EROS),AND
THE HARDLINE PEOPLE'S LIBERATION ORGANIZATION
OF TAMIL EELAM (PLOTE),HAVE PRIVATELY
ACKNOWLEDGED THE LTTE'S POPULARITY. AS EPRLF
COLOMBO SPOKESMAN "WILSON" TOLD POLOFF RECENTLY,
IF THE LTTE CONTESTED AN ELECTION IN THE NORTH
AND EAST TOMORROW, "THEY WOULD WIN EASILY".
HIS STATEMENT WAS CONTRADICTED BY FEW OF THE
MANY GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, POLITICIANS,
MILITANTS AND CITIZENS OF THE NORTH AND EAST
INTERVIEWED FOR THIS REPORT OVER THE FIRST THREE
MONTHS OF 1989.


--------------
VOTERS "SENT A MESSAGE"
TO THE LTTE
--------------


10. AT THE SAME TIME, SUPPORT FOR THE LTTE'S
HARDLINE EELAMIST STANCE IS DECLINING. POCKETS
OF SUPPORT FOR THIS POLICY EXIST, PARTICULARLY
AMONG STUDENTS AND THE YOUNG ADULT UNEMPLOYED
OF THE JAFFNA PENINSULA. BUT BY AND LARGE,
MOST PERSONS WE TALKED TO WOULD LIKE TO SEE
THE LTTE PUT ASIDE VIOLENCE AND PURSUE ITS
STRUGGLE THROUGH NEGOTIATION AND PARTICIPATION
IN DEMOCRATIC POLITICS.


11. THAT WAS THE MESSAGE OF THE STRONG SUPPORT
FOR THE EROS SLATE IN THE FEBRUARY 15 PARLIAMENTARY
VOTING, IN WHICH 13 EROS CANDIDATES (SOME OF
THEM CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LTTE) WERE
ELECTED, EROS GENERAL SECRETARY VELUPILLAI
BALAKUMAR TOLD POLOFF. "IT WAS NOT AN LTTE
VOTE, AND IT WAS NOT AN EROS VOTE", BALAKUMAR
SAID. "IT WAS A VOTE FOR PEACE." EROS'
SUCCESS AT THE POLLS IS PARTLY ATTRIBUTABLE
TO MANY VOTERS' BELIEF THAT THE GROUP'S
CANDIDATES STOOD IN PROXY FOR THE LTTE. BUT
MANY RESIDENTS AGREED WITH BALAKUMAR'S
ASSESSMENT, TELLING US THAT THE DESIRE TO
"SEND A MESSAGE" OF THEIR WISH FOR PEACE
CAUSED THEM TO DEFY LTTE BANS ON VOTING TO
CAST BALLOTS FEBRUARY 15 AND IN THE NOVEMBER 19,
1988, PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTION IN THE EAST.


12. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE LTTE IS
ATTEMPTING TO MODERATE ITS POSITION AND WIN
RENEWED NEGOTIATIONS WITH INDIA THROUGH EROS.
LTTE JAFFNA POLITICAL WING LEADER "KANDASAMY"
TOLD AN EMBASSY FSN THAT THE LTTE PERMITTED EROS
TO RUN AND ENCOURAGED VOTING IN THE FINAL DAYS
OF THE CAMPAIGN. HE ALSO SAID THE LTTE DOES
NOT WISH EROS PARLIAMENTARIANS TO TAKE
THEIR SEATS UNTIL THE FIGHTING STOPS IN THE
NORTH AND EAST.


--------------
POTENT MILITARY FORCE, OR "NUISANCE VALUE"
TERRORISTS?
--------------


13. THE LTTE'S CURRENT MILITARY CAPABILITY IS
HARDER TO ASSESS. SRI LANKAN MILITARY OFFICIALS,
SUPPORTERS OF THE LTTE AND MEMBERS OF THE
ORGANIZATION TEND TO DESCRIBE THE GROUP AS A STILL
POTENT FIGHTING FORCE, AMPLY ARMED, AND CONTINUALLY
REINFORCED BY NEW RECURITS. INDIAN MILITARY
OFFICIALS AND LEADERS OF RIVAL MILITANT GROUPS,
ON THE OTHER HAND, TELL US THAT THE LTTE IS
A "SPENT" MILITARY FORCE INCAPABLE OF MORE THAN
"NUISANCE VALUE TERRORISM" AND ATTACKS ON
"SOFT TARGETS", LIKE SINHALESE VILLAGES IN
TAMIL MAJORITY AREAS.


14. ESTIMATES OF THE TIGERS' NUMERICAL STRENGTH
-- ITS ACTIVE FIGHTING MEMBERSHIP -- VARY
ACCORDINGLY: FROM SRI LANKAN TRINCOMALEE
COORDINATING OFFICER BRIGADIER TILAK PARANAGAMA'S
JANUARY ESTIMATE OF 2,000 LTTE CADRES, TO
NORTHEAST PROVINCE CHIEF MINISTER AND EPRLF
NUMBER TWO A. VARATHARAJA PERUMAL'S WISHFUL
"NO MORE THAN 300".


15. THE LTTE HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY ITS 18
MONTHS OF FIGHTING WITH THE IPKF, ACCORDING TO
LTTE JAFFNA POLITICAL WING LEADER "KANDASAMY".
IPKF OFFENSIVES AT NITTIKAIKULAM, MULLAITTIVU,
IN AUGUST 1988 AND MARCH 1989 ACCOUNTED FOR
MORE THAN A SCORE OF TIGER DEATHS, HE SAID.
BUT, HE ADDED, NEWSPAPER REPORTS OF 50 OR
MORE LTTE CADRE HAVING BEEN KILLED IN EACH
OFFENSIVE ARE INACCURATE. THE LTTE HAS THE
WILL, THE MEN AND THE MATERIEL TO FIGHT ON,
KANDASAMY ASSERTED. IN FACT, SAID KANDASAMY,
THE LTTE HAS FORMED A 500-MEMBER "SUICIDE SQUAD"
AND IS PLANNING TO STEP UP ATTACKS AGAINST
INDIAN FORCES IF THE LATEST IPKF OFFENSIVE
DOES NOT ABATE. (EMBASSY COMMENT: KANDASAMY'S
ASSERTION COULD NOT BE INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED;
HOWEVER, LOCAL NEWSPAPERS THIS WEEK AND LAST
ARE REPORTING A HIGHER THAN USUAL LEVEL OF LTTE
ACTIVITY AGAINST THE IPKF IN THE WANNI JUNGLES.
END COMMENT.)


--------------
READY RECRUITS AND
GUNS
--------------


16. A.J. CANAGARATNA (PROTECT),A LECTURER IN
ENGLISH AT JAFFNA UNIVERSITY, FORMER DEPUTY EDITOR
OF THE PRO-LTTE "SATURDAY REVIEW", AND UNTIL ABOUT
A YEAR AGO, THE MAN WHO WROTE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
POLICY STATEMENTS AND PRESS RELEASES FOR THE
LTTE IN JAFFNA, SAID LTTE CADRES ARE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT THE JAFFNA PENINSULA. THEY OPERATE
IN SMALL GROUPS, NEVER OF MORE THAN FIVE
PERSONS, HIDING THEIR WEAPONS AND LIVING IN
"SAFE HOUSES", MIXING WITH THE POPULACE BY DAY,
AND STALKING THE IPKF AND ITS ALLIES BY NIGHT.
ONE OF THE BIGGEST SOURCES OF NEW RECRUITS
ARE LTTE SYMPATHIZERS HOUNDED FROM THEIR HOMES
IN JAFFNA BY THE PRO-INDIA MILITANTS. "THEY
EITHER LEAVE THE COUNTRY OR GO INTO THE JUNGLES",
CANAGARATNA SAID. HE ADDED THAT THE LTTE GETS
NEEDED ARMS AND AMMUNITION FROM CAPTURED
IPKF STOCKS, AND BY BUYING WEAPONS SUPPLIED
BY THE INDIANS FROM MEMBERS OF THE EPRLF,
TELO AND ENDLF WHO ARE LOOKING TO MAKE EASY
MONEY. LEADERS OF THE RIVAL, HARDLINE GROUP PLOTE
ALLEGE THAT THE LTTE IS STILL BEING SUPPLIED
FROM ABROAD, WITH THE COOPERATION OF SRI
LANKAN BUSINESSMEN.


--------------
PRABHAKARAN: HAUNTED BY THE DEAD
--------------


17. DISTRUST OF INDIA'S MOTIVES IN SRI LANKA
AND A FEELING THAT THEY HAVE BEEN BETRAYED BY
THEIR FORMER PATRONS SEEM TO HAVE PLAYED A
MAJOR ROLE IN HARDENING THE ATTITUDES OF THE
LTTE LEADERSHIP. TWO SOURCES WITH FORMERLY
CLOSE LINKS TO VELUPILLAI PRABHAKARAN TOLD POLOFF
THAT THE LTTE LEADER HAS REFUSED TO GIVE UP
HIS STRUGGLE FOR EELAM BECAUSE HE FEELS A
MORAL RESPONSIBILITY TO COMRADES WHO HAVE
DIED FIGHTING. BUT FORMER AIADMK FOOD
MINISTER S. RAMACHANDRAN, WHO ACTED AS FORMER TAMIL
NADU CHIEF MINISTER M.G. RAMACHANDRAN'S CONTACT
MAN WITH THE LTTE, AND FORMER LTTE MEMBER
(NOW PLOTE POLITICAL WING PRESIDENT) D. SITHARTHAN
BOTH SAID THAT PRABHAKARAN CAN BE REASONED WITH,
AND THAT IT IS HIS SECOND-IN-COMMAND, AJIT
MAHATHIYA, WHO IS PROVING THE LEAST TRACTABLE OF
ANY OF THE LTTE LEADERS.


18. OTHERS, CITING PRABHAKARAN'S AUGUST 1987
JAFFNA SPEECH FOLLOWING THE SIGNING OF THE PEACE
ACCORD, SAY THAT HE HAS NEVER RELINQUISHED HIS
QUEST FOR A SEPARATE STATE. SITHARTHAN
SAID THAT INDIA HAD ERRED IN THINKING IT
COULD "BUY" PRABHAKARAN WITH AN OFFER SHORT OF
EELAM. AND EPRLF SPOKESMAN WILSON SAID
PRABHAKARAN'S SINGLE-MINDED ATTITUDE STILL
DRIVES THE LTTE BECAUSE OF ITS TOTALITARIAN
STRUCTURE, PRABHAKARAN'S RUTHLESS SUPPRESSION
OF DISSENT, AND THE "CULT FOLLOWING" THAT HAS
GROWN UP AROUND THE TIGERS' NUMBER ONE. STILL
OTHERS SAY THAT THE LTTE FEARS REPRISAL AT
THE HANDS OF THE RIVAL MILITANT GROUPS INDIAN
CONTINUES TO ARM.


--------------
LTTE MAY AGAIN BE READY FOR
TALKS
--------------


19. THERE ARE, HOWEVER, INDICATIONS THAT THE
LTTE WOULD AGAIN LIKE TO NEGOTIATE WITH INDIA.
FORMER LTTE PROPAGANDA MAN CANAGARATNA SAID
THE RIFT BETWEEN PRABHAKARAN, WHO NOW FAVORS
COMPROMISE, AND MAHATHIYA, WHO WANTS TO KEEP
FIGHTING, HAS WIDENED. HE AND LTTE JAFFNA
POLITICAL LEADER KANDASAMY SAID THAT THE LTTE
IS PREPARED TO ACCEPT SOMETHING SHORT OF A SEPARATE
STATE AND THAT IT WANTS A CEASEFIRE AND
NEGOTIATIONS WITH INDIA. BUT, SAID KANDASAMY,
THE LTTE BELIEVES INDIA IS RESISTING TALKS
AND PURSUING THE MILITARY OPTION AGAINST THE
TIGERS IN ORDER TO STRENGTHEN ITS CLIENT GROUPS
AND INSURE ITS OWN FUTURE INFLUENCE IN THE
NORTH AND EAST. THE CEASEFIRE IS AN IMPORTANT
FIRST CONDITION TO THE TIGERS, BECAUSE PRABHAKARAN
REPORTEDLY WANTS NO REPETITION OF THE FIASCO OF
THE LAST ROUND OF TALKS IN WHICH "JOHNNY", THE
LTTE EMISSARY BROUGHT FROM MADRAS BY THE INDIANS
TO MEET PRABHAKARAN, WAS SHOT DEAD BY THE IPKF
IN THE WANNI. NOR, IT IS SAID, DOES HE WANT
TO EXPOSE HIS CADRES TO ATTACK BY THE EPRLF,
TELO, ENDLF AND PLOTE.

--------------
EMBASSY COMMENT
--------------


20. FOR THOSE CONCERNED WITH HOW DURABLE A
SOLUTION TO THE SRI LANKAN COMMUNAL CONFLICT
CAN BE FORGED IN THE NORTH AND EAST, ONE GOOD
MEASURE MIGHT BE TO ASSESS NOW ACCEPTABLE IT IS
TO THE PEOPLE IT WILL MOST DIRECTLY AFFECT.
IN THE VIEW OF THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF
TAMILS IN THE NORTH AND EAST WITH WHOM WE HAVE
SPOKEN IN RECENT MONTHS, THERE CAN BE NO LASTING
SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM WITHOUT THE PARTICIPATION
OF THE LTTE.


21. SUPPORT FOR THE LTTE IS NOT GOING TO
DISAPPEAR SOON. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
HAVE BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT OF POPULAR
SYMPATHY FROM THE LTTE TO THE THREE GROUPS
INDIAHAS TRIED TO INSTALL AS AN ALTERNATIVE.
AND EFFORTS TO IMPOSE A "MILITARY SOLUTION",
WHICH INEVITABLY RESULT IN CIVILIAN DEATH,
HAVE IN THE PAST TENDED TO HARDEN ATTITUDES
AND BROADEN THE TIGERS' POPULAR BASE.


22. MANY BELIEVE THAT THE LTTE IS ENCOURAGING
EROS' EFFORTS AT MEDIATION, AND SEE IN THIS
INDICATIONS THAT THE TIGER LEADERSHIP HAS
DECIDED ON THE NEED FOR A CHANGE OF TACK.
THEY BELIEVE, WITH EROS' BALAKUMAR, THAT THE LTTE
"IS LOOKING FOR A WAY TO SAVE FACE" AND MODERATE
ITS STANCE. THERE IS NO GREAT OPTIMISM
ON THE PART OF TAMILS IN THE NORTH AND EAST
THAT THIS APPROACH WILL WORK. BUT FEW SEE
WHY IT SHOULD NOT BE TRIED. END COMMENT.


SPAIN