Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
89COLOMBO158
1989-01-09 06:53:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Colombo
Cable title:  

GOI OFFICIAL ON STRENGTH OF LTTE

Tags:  PREL IN CE 
pdf how-to read a cable
P 090653Z JAN 89
FM AMEMBASSY COLOMBO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2334
INFO AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
AMCONSUL MADRAS
C O N F I D E N T I A L COLOMBO 00158 

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL IN CE
SUBJECT: GOI OFFICIAL ON STRENGTH OF LTTE

REF: NEW DELHI 102

C O N F I D E N T I A L COLOMBO 00158

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL IN CE
SUBJECT: GOI OFFICIAL ON STRENGTH OF LTTE

REF: NEW DELHI 102


1. CONFIDENTIAL ENTIRE TEXT.


2. REFTEL (MFA UNDERSECRETARY FOR SRI LANKA'S COM-
MENTS ON LATEST IPKF TROOP WITHDRAWAL) PRESENTS AN
INTERESTING SNAPSHOT OF CURRENT SOUTH BLOCK THINKING
ON SITUATION IN NORTHEASTERN PROVINCE.


3. ON THE ROLE OF LTTE, HOWEVER, THE WORKING-LEVEL
INDIAN HIGH COMMISSION OFFICIAL WHO DEALS MOST CLOSELY
WITH ALL ASPECTS OF INDIA'S ROLE IN NORTHEASTERN
PROVINCE, DR. S. JAISHANKAR, PRESENTS A SOMEWHAT MORE
SOBER VIEW OF CURRENT STRENGTH OF THE LTTE. HE
SAYS THAT THE LTTE HAS BEEN OUTMANEUVERED IN THE
EAST AND IS NO LONGER OF MUCH IMPORTANCE THERE. BUT
HE TOLD POLCOUNS JAN 6 THAT THERE ARE PROBABLY STILL
2000-3000 TIGERS IN THE OLD NORTHERN PROVINCE, IN
WANNI AREA SOUTH OF ELEPHANT PASS, AND THAT THEY CAN
CONTINUE TO ELUDE IPKF. JAISHANKAR SAID THAT A STEADY
(ALBEIT SMALLER THAN PRE-JULY 1987) STREAM OF WEAPONS
STILL COME ACROSS THE PALK STRAIT TO THE TIGERS,
AND DENIED THAT THE SECURITY OFFICIALS IN TAMIL NADU
WERE CAPABLE OF MORE THAN MARGINALLY AFFECTING THIS
TRAFFIC, WHICH HE POINTED OUT, DREW ON TIES BETWEEN
FISHING/SMUGGLING COMMUNITIES WHICH DATE BACK A
HUNDRED YEARS. HE EXPRESSED SOME CONCERN ABOUT WHAT
WOULD HAPPEN TO SUPPORT FOR THE LTTE IN TAMIL NADU IF
THE DMK WERE TO WIN IN THE JANUARY 21 ELECTION.


4. THE INDIANS SEE THE FEB 15 GENERAL ELECTION HERE
AS A REAL TEST OF STRENGTH IN WHAT USED TO BE NORTHERN
PROVINCE, PARTICULARLY IN JAFFNA PENINSULA WHERE THE
LTTE CONTINUES TO EXERT SOME POLITICAL FORCE EVEN
THOUGH ABLE TO DO ALMOST NOTHING MILITARILY. JAISHANKAR
SAID THAT IPKF WILL GO ALL OUT TO HELP ENSURE A BIG
TURNOUT IN THAT ELECTION SINCE THE INDIANS EXPECT THE
LTTE TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A BOYCOTT OF THE POLLS.
HE IMPLIED THAT THE GOI WOULD VIEW A 65 PER CENT TURN-
OUT IN JAFFNA PENINSULA AS A REAL VICTORY FOR HIS SIDE
BUT REFUSED TO SPECULATE WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE
TURNOUT WERE LOW.


SPAIN