Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
89CAIRO16206
1989-07-20 17:43:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Cairo
Cable title:  

MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD: DEFANGED BUT REHABILITATED

Tags:  KISL PGOV PINS KPRP EG 
pdf how-to read a cable
R 201743Z JUL 89
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2802
INFO AMCONSUL ALEXANDRIA
AMEMBASSY AMMAN
AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
AMCONSUL JERUSALEM
AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
AMEMBASSY RIYADH
AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
AMEMBASSY TUNIS
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY PARIS
DIA WASHDC
USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 CAIRO 16206 

LONDON FOR MILLIKEN, PARIS FOR WINN, CENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12356: DEC:OADR
TAGS: KISL PGOV PINS KPRP EG
SUBJECT: MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD: DEFANGED BUT REHABILITATED

REF: FBIS JN2505152689

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 CAIRO 16206

LONDON FOR MILLIKEN, PARIS FOR WINN, CENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12356: DEC:OADR
TAGS: KISL PGOV PINS KPRP EG
SUBJECT: MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD: DEFANGED BUT REHABILITATED

REF: FBIS JN2505152689


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. SUMMARY: TWO YEARS AGO, MUBARAK BET THAT BY
ADMITTING THE OUTLAWED MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD (MB) TO THE
PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY, THE GROUP WOULD BE COOPTED AND THUS
UNDERMINED AS THE CATALYST OF AN ISLAMIC OPPOSITION
MOVEMENT. NOW, THE BET IS PAYING OFF: THE MB HAS
GAINED IN STATUS IN THE RAREFIED ESTABLISHMENT
POLITICAL ARENA, BUT HAS BEEN DEFANGED AS A THREAT TO
THE REGIME. EXTERNAL AND DOMESTIC FACTORS ALSO HAVE
HELPED DIMINISH ANXIETY OVER THE MB IN PARTICULAR AND
REVOLUTIONARY ISLAM IN GENERAL: THE FAILURE OF ISLAMIC
GOVERNMENT IN IRAN; THE COLLAPSE OF THE "ISLAMIC"
INVESTMENT COMPANIES; DISSENSION BETWEEN THE MB AND ITS
OPPOSITION PARTNERS AND MORE EXTREME ISLAMIC RIVALS;
AND A STRING OF MB PROGRAM FAILURES UNDER A GERIATRIC
LEADERSHIP. YET, THE MB ALSO HAS BENEFITED FROM
PLAYING THE REGIME'S GAME: IN PART, THE REHABILITATION
OF THE MB IS A STRATEGIC SUCCESS OF THEIR OWN ATTEMPT
TO APPEAR RESPONSIBLE AND ESTABLISHMENTARIAN. THAT
THEY AIM CLEARLY AT THE POLITICAL CENTER IS CLEAR FROM
THEIR MOST RECENT, REMARKABLY MODERATE-SOUNDING
PLATFORM. THUS, THEY MAY BE SUCCEEDING IN TRANSFORMING
FROM A PERCEIVED POPULAR REVOLUTIONARY FORCE INTO A
MORE SUBTLE BUT STILL SUBSTANTIAL THREAT TO THE
REGIME: A POTENTIALLY PLAUSIBLE, "MODERATE" CIVILIAN
ALTERNATIVE. THOUGH THEY ARE STILL FAR FROM ACHIEVING
SUCH A DEGREE OF CREDIBILITY, WITH THEIR EXPERIENCE,
DISCIPLINE, MONEY, LINGERING POPULARITY, AND YOUNGER
TALENT WAITING RESPECTFULLY IN THE WINGS, THE MB SEEM
THE OPPOSITION ELEMENT MOST LIKELY TO ENDURE IN
EGYPTIAN POLITICS. MOREOVER, IT IS NOT YET CLEAR
WHETHER THE MB HAVE DETERMINED TO STAY WITHIN THE
SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, THE GOVERNMENT REMAINS A FAR MORE
INFLUENTIAL FORCE THAN THE MB OR ANY OTHER POLITICAL
GROUP IN THE BROADER, CULTURAL RELIGIOUS REAWAKENING.
END SUMMARY.


--------------
REHABILITATION FOR REGIME PURPOSES
--------------


3. LEGAL LIMBO: OVER ITS 60 YEARS OF EXISTENCE, THE
MB HAS USUALLY SPRAWLED MORE (BUT NOT ENTIRELY) TO ONE
SIDE OR THE OTHER OF THE AMBIGUOUS DIVISION BETWEEN
UNDERGROUND AND ESTABLISHMENT POLITICS. TODAY, IT IS
ALL BUT COMPLETELY INTO THE MAINSTREAM POLITICAL ARENA,
FORSWEARING UNDERGROUND ACTIVITY AND POSSESSING ALL THE

EARMARKS AND ACTIVITIES OF A LEGITIMATE POLITICAL PARTY
EXCEPT THE OFFICIAL LICENSE TO CALL ITSELF ONE. THE MB
MAINTAINS THAT THE 1954 DECREE DISSOLVING IT WAS LATER
RESCINDED. THE GROUP CONTINUES TO SLOG ALONG WITH AN
ARRAY OF LEGAL CASES AIMED AT GAINING FORMAL PARTY
STATUS AND RECOVERING VARIOUS SUSPENDED PUBLISHING
LICENSES. AT THE SAME TIME, INTERIOR MINISTER ZAKI
BADR LOSES NO OPPORTUNITY TO PROCLAIM THE MB IS
ILLEGAL, CRIMINAL, SUBVERSIVE -- AND DOES NOT EVEN
EXIST; IF IT DID EXIST, ITS MEMBERS SHOULD BE IN JAIL,
NOT STANDING FOR PUBLIC OFFICE.



4. POLITICAL PAWNS: SADAT BEGAN THE MB'S
REHABILITATION WHEN, IN THE MID-1970S, HE RELEASED
THOSE OLDTIME MB PERSONALITIES WHO HAD SURVIVED
NASSER'S PRISONS. HIS OBJECTIVE WAS TO HELP ESTABLISH
HIS CREDENTIALS AS THE "BELIEVER PRESIDENT", AIMING TO
USE ISLAM TO CRUSH THE REMNANTS OF LEFTIST INFLUENCE.
MUBARAK FURTHER EXPANDED THE MB'S ACCESS TO
ESTABLISHMENT POLITICS BY ALLOWING ABOUT SIX OF THEM TO
BE ELECTED TO THE PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY UNDER THE
OPPOSITION WAFD PARTY IN 1984. ZAKI BADR'S VIEWS
NOTWITHSTANDING, IN 1987, MUBARAK ALLOWED ABOUT 35 MB
DEPUTIES TO BE OPENLY IDENTIFIED AND ELECTED AS SUCH
(WITH ONLY THE THINNEST OF LEGAL COVERS AS TECHNICAL
MEMBERS OF THE SOCIALIST LABOR PARTY). MUBARAK'S
MOTIVES WERE QUITE DIFFERENT FROM SADAT'S: UNDER HIS
CONCEPT OF "DEMOCRACY" (ESSENTIALLY MEANING FREEDOM OF
SPEECH) AS A "SAFETY VALVE", HE EVIDENTLY CALCULATED
THAT THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY THREAT PERCEIVED IN
THOSE TIMES WOULD PROVE MORE MANAGEABLE ABOVE GROUND,
WITH THE MB AS THE PRINCIPAL VOICE OF POLITICAL ISLAM.
OVER TWO YEARS AFTER MUBARAK WAS ACCUSED OF A DANGEROUS
GAMBLE, IT APPEARS THAT THE CALCULATIONS BEHIND HIS BET
WERE CORRECT.



5. DE FACTO PARTY: TODAY, THE MB RECEIVE FOREIGN
DIPLOMATS AND JOURNALISTS -- WITHOUT THE ADVANCE
APPROVAL OF THE INTERIOR MINISTRY UPON WHICH THEY USED
TO INSIST AS RECENTLY AS 1986 -- AND CONDUCT OTHER
ORDINARY POLITICAL PARTY BUSINESS AT A WELL-KNOWN HQ IN
DOWNTOWN CAIRO. THEY PUBLISH A MONTHLY MAGAZINE (LIWA'
AL-ISLAM, THE BANNER OF ISLAM) AND HAVE DIRECT ACCESS
TO SEVERAL OTHER INDEPENDENT MONTHLIES AND WEEKLIES
(AL-'ETISAM, AL-MOKHTAR AL-ISLAMI, AL-NUR, AL-SHAAB).
MB MEMBERS ALSO ARE IDENTIFIED AS SUCH ON THE BOARDS OF
THE PHYSICIANS AND JOURNALISTS' SYNDICATES AND, UNTIL
RECENTLY, THE LAWYERS' SYNDICATE. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL
RECOGNITION OF THE MB AS A POLITICAL PARTY REMAINS
THEIR IDENTITY AS AN INDEPENDENT GROUP IN THE PEOPLE'S
ASSEMBLY UNDER THEIR OWN DELEGATION LEADER, FORMER
SENIOR JUDGE MA'MUN AL-HODEIBY (SON OF AN EARLY SUPREME
GUIDE). THE MB NOW ARE THE LARGEST (THERE ARE ABOUT
33) AND CERTAINLY THE MOST COHESIVE BLOC OF OPPOSITION
DEPUTIES IN THE ASSEMBLY. MOREOVER, THE MB AND THE
CENTER-RIGHT, RELATIVELY SECULAR NATIONALIST WAFD, ARE
THE ONLY TWO LEGAL OPPOSITION GROUPINGS WITH ANY PROVEN
HISTORIC STAYING POWER AND SIGNIFICANT POPULAR
FOLLOWING FROM ASWAN TO ALEXANDRIA.


--------------
GETTING MIRED IN THE MAINSTREAM
--------------


6. JOINING THE OPPOSITION DOLDRUMS: THIS STATUS,
HOWEVER, REMAINS FAR FROM SATISFACTORY TO THE MB. AS
IS TRUE FOR ALL EGYPTIAN OPPOSITION GROUPINGS, THE MB'S
FREEDOM OF SPEECH AND ACCESS TO THE MEDIA AND ASSEMBLY
DO NOT CONSTITUTE GENUINE POLITICAL ENFRANCHISEMENT.
LACKING THE RULING NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY'S (NDP)
ACCESS TO THE STATE BUREAUCRACY AND ITS ABILITY TO
DISTRIBUTE JOBS, EDUCATION, HOUSING, AND OTHER GOODS
AND SERVICES, THE MB (OR ANY OTHER OPPOSITION GROUPING)
IS UNLIKELY EVER TO BE VOTED INTO POWER, EVEN IF THE
INTERIOR MINISTRY WERE TO PERMIT GENUINE ELECTIONS.
THE MB AND OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES CAN OFFER ONLY
SLOGANS; THE RULING PARTY -- ANY RULING PARTY -- OFFERS
TANGIBLE BENEFITS TO INDIVIDUALS AND COMMUNITIES.


7. DEFANGING: THUS, AS THE REGIME MUST HAVE HOPED,
THE MB'S PARTICIPATION IN THE FORMAL POLITICAL "SYSTEM"
OF THE PAST FEW YEARS HAS DEFANGED THE GROUP AS THE
PRETENDERS TO LEADERSHIP OF A NEW ISLAMIC ERA: IN THE
ASSEMBLY AND IN THEIR PRESS, THEY HAVE LOOKED AND
SOUNDED MUCH LIKE THE OTHER OPPOSITION POLITICAL
PARTIES; THEY HAVE ACCOMPLISHED NO MORE THAN THE
OTHERS, AND HAVE PROVED NO MORE OF A THREAT TO THE
AUTHORITY OF THE STATE. IN SUM, EVEN EGYPTIAN
SECULARISTS AND CHRISTIANS NO LONGER LIVE IN IMMEDIATE
DREAD OF THE MB. AT THE SAME TIME, THE ISLAMICISTS
HAVE SHOWN GREATER INDEPENDENCE OF THE MB: NOW IN THE
LEGITIMATE POLITICAL THEATRE THERE ARE A GAGGLE OF MORE
PROMINENT ISLAMIC "INDEPENDENTS", AND A NEW (MORE OR
LESS FRIENDLY) RIVAL PARTY IN THE ISLAMIC WING OF THE
BELEAGUERED SOCIALIST LABOR PARTY.


--------------
EBBING OF REVOLUTIONARY ISLAM?
--------------


8. EXTERNAL FACTORS -- IRAN: THE DEFLATION OF THE
PERCEIVED THREAT FROM THE MB TAKES PLACE IN THE BROADER
CONTEXT OF A RELAXATION OF PERCEPTIONS OF A THREAT FROM
REVOLUTIONARY ISLAM IN GENERAL. THE MB, LIKE EGYPT'S
OTHER ISLAMIC POLITICIANS, EVIDENTLY FAILED IN THEIR
ATTEMPTS TO PICK AND CHOOSE ONLY THOSE ASPECTS OF
KHOMEINISM WITH WHICH THEY WISHED TO BE ASSOCIATED.
EVEN THOSE EGYPTIANS WHO PERCEIVE AND RESENT WESTERN
CULTURAL OR POLITICAL DOMINATION SEEM MORE REVOLTED BY
THE ISLAMIC "ALTERNATIVE" MODELED BY "HANGING JUDGE"
KHAMENEI, THE NEAR-HERESY AND VIOLENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
SHI'ISM, AND, PERHAPS MOST OF ALL, IRAN'S PERCEIVED
"LOSS" OF THE WAR WITH IRAQ. "NEITHER EAST NOR WEST"
-- A KHOMEINI SLOGAN BORROWED BY THE MB FOR ITS 1987
ELECTION CAMPAIGN -- HAS A SUPERFICIAL APPEAL TO BOTH
LEFTIST AND ISLAMICIST INTELLECTUALS, BUT EVEN THEY
JOIN THE MASSES IN SETTING THE WEST AND EAST ON VERY
DIFFERENT LEVELS OF FRIENDSHIP AND ATTRACTION: FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF EGYPTIANS, THE WEST IS NO SATAN AND
THE EAST IS NO FRIEND. THUS, EXCEPT AMONG THE
COMMITTED MINORITY, THE APPEAL OF POLITICAL ISLAM IN
EGYPT HAS FALLEN WITH ITS FORTUNES IN IRAN.


9. DOMESTIC SETBACKS: OTHER UNCONTROLLABLE EVENTS
HAVE ADDED TO THE MB'S MISFORTUNES. MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY, THE CRASH OF THE ISLAMIC PONZI SCHEMES
IN 1988 DEALT A SHATTERING BLOW TO THE ATTRACTION OF
POLITICAL ISLAM TO THE LITTLE MAN, WHILE THE GOVERNMENT
SOMEHOW HAS MANAGED TO ESCAPE THE ANTICIPATED BACKLASH
FROM THE THOUSANDS OF RUINED SMALL INVESTORS. AS
RECOGNIZED CAPITALISTS, THE MB PERHAPS UNFAIRLY WAS
IDENTIFIED WITH THESE COMPANIES; IT HAD KNOWN CLOSE
TIES ONLY TO "SHERIF", THE MOST LEGITIMATE OF THE
"ISLAMIC" COMPANIES AND THE ONLY ONE THAT SEEMS TO HAVE
SURVIVED. MOREOVER, THE ONGOING, BITTER FACTIONALISM
THAT SHATTERED THE SOCIALIST LABOR PARTY THIS SPRING
WAS WIDELY BLAMED ON THE INFECTION OF POLITICAL ISLAM
IN GENERAL, AND ON THE SLP'S DALLIANCE WITH THE MB IN
PARTICULAR. MEANWHILE, OVER THE PAST YEAR AND ONE
HALF, THE MB HAS FACED SHARP, SOMETIMES EVEN VIOLENT
ATTACK FROM ITS MORE EXTREME RIVALS FOR LEADERSHIP OF
POLITICAL ISLAM.


10. FAILURES: FINALLY, THE MB HAS HAD A STRING OF
PROGRAM FAILURES, PROBABLY AT LEAST PARTLY DUE TO THE
AGING LEADERSHIP'S INABILITY TO CUT DEALS WITH STRONGER
ADVERSARIES. THE MB LOST ITS TWO SEATS ON THE BOARD OF
THE LAWYERS' SYNDICATE. THEY FAILED TO NEGOTIATE WITH
THE GOVERNMENT EVEN A TOKEN SEAT IN THE SHURA COUNCIL
ELECTIONS AND APPOINTMENTS. MOREOVER, AS THE
SECULARISTS ARE CROWING, THE MB HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF TANGIBLE ISLAMIC ACHIEVEMENT TO SHOW FOR THEIR TWO
YEARS IN PARLIAMENT: THE MOST ONE MB DEPUTY COULD
CLAIM WAS SUCCESS IN "PRESENTING ISLAMIC IDEAS WITH
CLARITY." IN PRIVATE, THE MB LEADERS ARE FAR MORE
DISGRUNTLED. WE EXPECT THAT MANY IN THE MB WILL BE
REASSESSING THEIR STRATEGY OF PLAYING WITHIN THE
SYSTEM -- ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING THE INSULT AND INJURY
THEY SUFFERED AT THE HANDS OF THE REGIME DURING THE
SHURA COUNCIL ELECTIONS.


--------------
WHOSE STRATEGIC SUCCESS?
--------------


11. DE-RADICALIZATION: ON THE OTHER HAND, THE MB'S
PRESENT UNTHREATENING PUBLIC IMAGE MAY REPRESENT AS
IMPORTANT A STRATEGIC SUCCESS FOR THEM AS FOR THE
SECULAR STATE. IF MUBARAK HAS WON HIS OBJECTIVE OF
DEFLATING THE REVOLUTIONARY THREAT FROM THE MB AND
EXTREMIST POLITICAL ISLAM, THE MB ALSO HAS COME FAR
TOWARD ITS GOAL OF LOOKING MODERATE, RESPONSIBLE, AND
ESTABLISHMENTARIAN. SINCERE OR NOT, THE MB LEADERS'
PUBLIC STATEMENTS REITERATE THE GROUP'S REJECTION OF
ASSOCIATION WITH KHOMEINISM, EGYPTIAN RADICAL GROUPS,
VIOLENCE, OR EVEN URGENCY IN THE ISLAMIC REFORMS FOR
WHICH THEY CALL. THUS, WHILE EGYPTIAN OPPOSITION
PARTIES MARCH LEMMING-LIKE FOR THE EDGES OF PUBLIC
OPINION, THE MB CALMLY AND METHODICALLY AIMS FOR DEAD
CENTER. IN FACT, BY EGYPTIAN STANDARDS, THE MB'S
PROGRAM PUBLISHED DURING THE SHURA COUNCIL ELECTION
"CAMPAIGN" LAST MAY IS A MODEL OF BOTH RHETORICAL AND
SUBSTANTIVE MODERATION. MANY OF ITS POINTS ARE NEAR OR
IDENTICAL TO NDP POSITIONS. THUS THE MB DIRECTLY
CHALLENGE THE CLAIM OF THE REGIME AND ITS PARTY TO THE
LOYALTY OF THE MASS CENTER -- PERHAPS ONE REASON THE
MB WERE EXCLUDED FROM THE SHURA COUNCIL IN 1989.
ALTHOUGH SUCH AN IDEOLOGICAL CHALLENGE HAS LITTLE
PROMISE OF SHAKING THE BEDROCK OF MASS PERSONAL AND
COMMUNAL INTERESTS THAT ADD UP TO SUPPORT FOR THE
REGIME, IT MERITS EXAMINATION AS A REFLECTION OF THE
MB'S READING OF THE MINDSET OF THE BROADER CONSTITUENCY
THEY MUST HOPE ONE DAY TO WREST FROM THE REGIME.


--------------
THE MB'S PROGRAM TODAY
--------------


12. THE MOST RECENT, DETAILED AND COMPREHENSIVE
STATEMENT OF THE MB'S PROGRAM WAS THEIR MAY 1989 SHURA
COUNCIL ELECTION PLATFORM (REF FBIS). IT IS NOTABLY
SHORT ON ISLAMIC CANT AND LONG ON THE EVERYDAY,
LIBERAL, CENTRIST BROMIDES THAT ARE THE STUFF OF BOTH
THE WAFD AND THE NDP'S PITCHES TO POPULAR POLITICAL
DEMANDS. THE MB CANDIDATES PLEDGE TO FIGHT, "IN
SOLIDARITY WITH ALL HONORABLE ELEMENTS WITHIN THE
NATIONALIST FORCES," FOR ACHIEVEMENTS IN:
CONSTITUTIONAL AND LEGAL REFORM; GRADUAL IMPLEMENTATION
OF ISLAMIC LAW; ELIMINATING CORRUPTION; EDUCATION,
MEDICAL CARE, HOUSING AND OTHER SOCIAL SERVICES;
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS:

-- CONSTITUTIONAL AND LEGAL REFORM: THE MB CALLS FOR
DIRECT ELECTION OF A PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT FROM
AMONG SEVERAL CANDIDATES, AS WELL AS ELECTION OF MAYORS
AND GOVERNORS. THEY WANT ABOLISHMENT OF THE EMERGENCY
LAW AND ALL OTHER "ANTI-DEMOCRATIC" LAWS AND PRACTICES;
COMPLETE FREEDOM FOR FORMATION OF POLITICAL PARTIES (IN
OTHER PUBLIC STATEMENTS, HOWEVER, THEY STATE THEIR
CONTINUING OPPOSITION TO THE NASSERITES, NO DOUBT DUE
TO THE PHYSICAL AND EMOTIONAL SCARS INFLICTED ON THEM
BY NASSER); SEPARATION OF THE RULING PARTY FROM STATE
ORGANS; GUARANTEES OF THE FAIRNESS OF ELECTIONS; AND
REPRESENTATION OF WORKERS AND PEASANTS (IRONICALLY,
THE WESTERNIZED LIBERALS SUCH AS THE WAFDISTS SEE THE
PARTICIPATION OF THE UNEDUCATED AS ONE OF THE CRITICAL
WEAKNESSES OF EGYPTIAN "DEMOCRACY;" HERE, THE
PROPERTIED MB ARE CASTING A BONE TO THE LEFT.) THEY
CALL FOR STRENGTHENING THE INDEPENDENCE OF THE
JUDICIARY, AND PUTTING IT IN CHARGE OF PRISONS IN ORDER
TO END TORTURE AND INDEFINITE PREVENTATIVE DETENTION.


-- ISLAMIC LAW: THE MB CALL FOR "IMMEDIATE
IMPLEMENTATION" OF THE ARTICLE OF THE CONSTITUTION
WHICH STATES THAT ISLAM IS THE RELIGION OF THE STATE
AND "THE PRINCIPLES OF ISLAM ARE THE MAIN SOURCE OF
LEGISLATION." (MORE RADICAL ISLAMICISTS WANT THE
CONSTITUTION TO STATE THAT ISLAM IS THE ONLY/ONLY
SOURCE OF LEGISLATION.) THEY DEFLATE THE URGENCY OF
THEIR APPEAL, HOWEVER, BY CALLING ONLY TO "BEGIN THE
REPEAL OF LAWS THAT CLEARLY VIOLATE ISLAMIC LAW." TO
FURTHER ASSUAGE THE MODERATE CENTER, THEY EMPHASIZE
THAT "ISLAM IS A STATE AND CIVILIZATION OWNED BY ALL
WHO CONTRIBUTED TO IT. THUS THE BROTHER COPTS IN
PARTICULAR AND THE PEOPLE OF THE BOOK IN GENERAL HAVE
THE SAME RIGHTS AND OBLIGATIONS AS MUSLIMS."

-- CORRUPTION: THE MB IDEALISTICALLY EXHORT PEOPLE,
ESPECIALLY GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES, TO BE GOOD, AND URGE
OFFICIAL ENCOURAGEMENT, EDUCATION, PROHIBITIONS AND
SANCTIONS TO THIS END. SIGNIFICANTLY, THE MB DO
NOT/NOT CALL FOR THE "HUDUD" - CHOPPING OFF HANDS OF
THIEVES, STONING OF ADULTERERS, ETC, THAT THE RADICALS
PUT AT THE HEART OF ISLAMIC LAW. THE MB WOULD CLOSE
ALL GOVERNMENT-OWNED ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGE FACTORIES (NO
REFERENCE TO PRIVATELY OWNED PRODUCERS),STOP GAMBLING,
AND ISSUE NO MORE LICENSES FOR "BUFFOONERY AND
ENTERTAINMENT ON THE PRETEXT OF ENCOURAGING TOURISM."
PRESUMABLY, CURRENT LICENSES FOR BUFFOONERY WOULD BE
UNAFFECTED.

-- EDUCATION AND CULTURE: THE MB CALL FOR RADICAL
EDUCATIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO PERMIT EGYPT TO "FOLLOW THE
REQUIREMENTS OF THE SCIENTIFIC REVOLUTION." ANY CALL
FOR INTENSIFYING ISLAMIC INDOCTRINATION OR CENSORSHIP
IS NOTABLY OBSCURE, IF NOT ABSENT; THE MB LIMIT
THEMSELVES TO URGING STATE PROPAGANDA EFFORTS AIMED AT
SPREADING RELIGIOUS VALUES AND OVERCOMING ALIENATION.
THEY ALSO CALL FOR FREEING THE MEDIA FROM GOVERNMENT
OWNERSHIP AND CONTROL.


-- SOCIAL SERVICES AND ECONOMIC REFORM: THE MB URGE
"SERIOUS ... SOLUTIONS THAT DO NOT DEPEND ON THE
GUIDANCE OF THE IMF OR USAID." THE STATE SHOULD
"BEWARE OF INTERFERENCE BY FOREIGNERS" IN ECONOMIC
POLICY AND "GUARD AGAINST THEIR CONTROL OF ECONOMIC AND
PRODUCTIVE GUIDANCE CENTERS." DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
BASED ON "SELF-RELIANCE" AND "ISLAMIC PRIORITIES."
THEY WOULD STOP PRINTING NEW BANKNOTES TO COVER THE
DEFICIT; REDUCE PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON LUXURIES;
"LIQUIDATE MONEY-LOSING ECONOMIC ESTABLISHMENTS";
REFORM THE TAX SYSTEM TO SOAK THE RICH AND REDUCE THE
BURDEN ON THE POOR; RAISE THE MINIMUM WAGE; MAINTAIN
SUBSIDIES OF BASIC COMMODITIES; AND ENCOURAGE THE
PRIVATE SECTOR TO JOIN THE PUBLIC SECTOR IN BUILDING
LOW- AND MEDIUM- INCOME HOUSING. THE MB MAKE THE FIRST
CAMPAIGN REFERENCE WE HAVE SEEN IN EGYPT TO THE
ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUE, CALLING FOR REDUCING POLLUTION AS
A PREVENTATIVE MEDICAL STEP. THEY WOULD ENCOURAGE
EGYPTIAN INVESTMENT IN EGYPT, AND COOOPERATE WITH ARAB
ECONOMIES, BUT THEY MAKE NO REFERENCE TO ENCOURAGING
"FOREIGN" (I.E. NON-ARAB) INVESTMENT. ORGANS OF THE
STATE SHOULD "URGE" CITIZENS TO CONSUME LESS AND
PREVENT WASTE. THE STATE SHOULD INTERVENE IN ECONOMIC
AFFAIRS, WITH LONG- AND SHORT- TERM PLANS. THE PUBLIC
SECTOR IS THE "NERVE CENTER" OF THE ECONOMY, BUT IT
MUST GET OUT OF FIELDS THAT THE PRIVATE SECTOR CAN
HANDLE.

-- FOREIGN RELATIONS: THE MB SUPPORT THE EGYPTIAN
ARMED FORCES. THEY URGE COMMITMENT TO THE NAM POLICY
OF "BALANCED RELATIONS WITH BOTH EAST AND WEST" (IN
CONTRAST TO THE ISOLATIONIST "NEITHER EAST NOR WEST"
LINE OF RADICAL ISLAM). THEY MERELY URGE "CARE" IN
RELATIONS WITH THE U.S., IN LIGHT OF ITS "FLAGRANT"
PRO-ISRAELI STANDS; "FREEZING", NOT ABROGATION, OF THE
CAMP DAVID ACCORDS; A "COMPREHENSIVE BOYCOTT OF THE
ISRAELI PRESENCE IN EGYPT," BUT WITHOUT CALLING FOR A
BREAK IN BILATERAL RELATIONS; AND CALL ONLY FOR SUPPORT
OF THE "POLITICAL JIHAD", NOT THE VIOLENT STRUGGLE,
"BEING WAGED BY OUR PALESTINIAN BROTHERS," AND OF
"THEIR RIGHT TO ESTABLISH THEIR INDEPENDENT STATE ON
THEIR SOIL." THEY OPPOSE FRAGMENTATION AND
SECTARIANISM IN LEBANON AND SECESSIONISM IN SUDAN.


--------------
MUTUAL BENEFIT OF THE MB-GOVERNMENT DEAL
--------------


13. CONCLUSION: BOTH THE GOVERNMENT AND MB EVIDENTLY
HAVE GOT MUCH OF WHAT THEY WANTED FROM THEIR 1987
DEAL: THE MB GAINED SOMETHING CLOSE TO LEGITIMACY,
ACCESS TO THE NATIONAL MEDIA (INCLUDING TELEVISED
PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY DEBATES),AND A VALUABLE IMMUNITY
FROM OUTRIGHT REPRESSION, REGARDLESS OF THE INTERIOR
MINISTER'S OUTSPOKEN VIEWS. THEIR POSITION AS THE ONLY
PLAUSIBLE ISLAMIC POLITICAL MOVEMENT, HOWEVER WEAK, IS
STRENGTHENED: WITH THEIR PRIVATE WEALTH, LINGERING
MASS APPEAL, DISCIPLINE, AND AT LEAST A FEW DEDICATED
YOUTHFUL LEADERS WAITING IN THE WINGS, THE MB ARE MORE
LIKELY THAN ANY OF THE ESTABLISHED PARTIES TO ENDURE AS
A FORCE IN EGYPTIAN POLITICS. FOR THE REGIME'S PART,
IN RETURN FOR ENDURING MORE VOCAL PUBLIC CRITICISM FROM
ISLAMIC POLITICAL QUARTERS, IT HAS SPLIT THE ISLAMIC
OPPOSITION INTO A COMFORTABLY-MANAGED MAINSTREAM
ELEMENT (THE MB) AND A "CRIMINAL" ELEMENT ("THE ISLAMIC
GROUP" AND THE LIKE) THAT IT IS STERNLY REPRESSING WITH
LITTLE SIGN OF BROAD PUBLIC REACTION. MEANWHILE, AS
ALL THIS OCCURS AT THE RAREFIED POLITICAL LEVELS, A
CULTURAL RELIGIOUS REVIVAL CONTINUES IN FITS AND STARTS
IN THE BROADER EGYPTIAN SOCIETY. THE GOVERNMENT SEEMS
TO HAVE MUCH MORE INFLUENCE ON THAT LARGER CULTURAL
PROCESS THAN HAVE THE MB, OR ANY OTHER POLITICAL OR
RELIGIOUS GROUPS.


WISNER