FARC "DECLARES CEASEFIRE" AFTER NON-GOC PEACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 03191

SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PTER PINS PGOV CO
SUBJECT: FARC "DECLARES CEASEFIRE" AFTER NON-GOC PEACE
COMMISSION IS FORMED

REF: BOGOTA 3017 AND PREVIOUS


1. (C) SUMMARY: THE FARC LEADERSHIP ON FEBRUARY 28
ORDERED A UNILATERAL CEASEFIRE AMONG ALL ITS FRONTS IN
RESPONSE TO THE FORMATION OF A PEACE COMMISSION IT HAD
RECOMMENDED. THROUGH AN INTERMEDIARY, THE FARC
EXPRESSED HOPES THAT COMMISSION MEMBERS WOULD NOW
MEDIATE WITH THE GOC TO HALT THE GOC'S MILITARY ACTIONS
AGAINST THE FARC. PRESIDENT BARCO RESPONDED BY SAYING
THAT HE HOPES THE CEASEFIRE ANNOUNCEMENT IS NOT SIMPLY A
PLOY BY THE FARC TO GET THE ARMED FORCES OFF ITS BACK.
A WELL-CONNECTED ARMY OFFICER TOLD US THAT HE DOES
NOT/NOT BELIEVE THE GOC WILL NOW IMPOSE A CEASEFIRE ON
THE ARMED FORCES. WE ARE INCLINED TO AGREE. END SUMMARY.

FARC ANNOUNCES CEASEFIRE; PEACE COMMISSION FORMED
-------------- --------------

2. (U) FARC SECOND IN COMMAND JACOBO ARENAS ANNOUNCED
TO THE PRESS ON FEBRUARY 28 THAT THE TOP LEADERSHIP OF
THE FARC HAS ORDERED A UNILATERAL CEASEFIRE AMONG ALL
ITS FRONTS. THE CEASEFIRE ORDER HAS ONLY ONE CAVEAT --
THAT FARC GROUPS WILL ACT IN "SELF DEFENSE" IF
THREATENED BY ARMY OPERATIONS IN THEIR AREA. THE FARC'S
CEASEFIRE ANNOUNCEMENT WAS MADE THROUGH SOCIAL
CONSERVATIVE SENATOR ALVARO LEYVA DURAN, ITS FAVORITE
POLITICAL INTERLOCUTOR. LEYVA CONVEYED TO THE PRESS THE
CONTENTS OF HIS TAPED TELEPHONE CONVERSATION WITH JACOBO
ARENAS.


3. (U) IN A FEBRUARY 23 COMMUNIQUE (SEE REFTEL),THE
FARC HAD PROPOSED THE NAMES OF FIVE PROMINENT COLOMBIANS
FOR THE CREATION OF A NON-GOC PEACE COMMISSION TO
INITIATE PEACE TALKS WITH THE SIMON BOLIVAR GUERRILLA
COORDINATOR (SBGC). THE FARC PROMISED THAT IT WOULD
ORDER A UNILATERAL CEASEFIRE TO "HELP PREPARE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR NEGOTIATIONS" IF THE
COMMISSION WAS FORMED, THE FIVE NOTABLES, LED BY FORMER
PRESIDENTS MISAEL PASTRANA AND ALFONSO LOPEZ MICHELSEN,
STUDIED THE FARC OFFER ON FEBRUARY 27. FOUR OF THE FARC
NOMINEES AGREED TO PARTICIPATE ("EL TIEMPO" DIRECTOR
HERNANDO SANTOS BOWED OUT CLAIMING CONFLICT OF
INTEREST). IN HIS TELEPHONE MESSAGE TO LEYVA DURAN ON
THE 28TH, ARENAS CONFIRMED THAT THE FARC'S CEASEFIRE
ORDER WAS IN RESPONSE TO THE FORMATION OF THE PEACE
COMMISSION (REFTEL).

FARC: COMMISSION SHOULD GET GOC TO HALT MILITARY ACTIONS
-------------- --------------

4. (U) LEYVA TOLD THE PRESS THAT THE FARC HAS CHOSEN TO
"RISK THE IMPLICATIONS OF A UNILATERAL CEASEFIRE" EVEN
THOUGH THE GOC COULD REFUSE TO RECIPROCATE BY ORDERING A
CEASEFIRE OF ITS OWN. LEYVA SAID THAT THE FARC
THEREFORE HOPES THAT COMMISSION MEMBERS WILL "INTERPOSE
THEIR GOOD OFFICES WITH THE GOC," AND MEDIATE A HALT TO
THE GOC'S MILITARY ACTIONS AGAINST THE FARC. PRESIDENT
BARCO TOLD THE PRESS ON FEBRUARY 28 THAT HE HOPES THE
FARC'S CEASEFIRE ANNOUNCEMENT IS SINCERE, AND NOT SIMPLY
A PLOY TO ESCAPE THE MOUNTING PRESSURE BEING EXERTED BY
THE ARMED FORCES IN THE FIELD. BARCO REMINDED THE PRESS
THAT THE FARC MADE A PREVIOUS UNILATERAL CEASEFIRE
ANNOUNCEMENT LAST DECEMBER BUT NEVER OBSERVED IT.

ARMY SOURCES BELIEVE BARCO WON'T ORDER CEASEFIRE
-------------- ---

5. (C) A WELL-CONNECTED, HIGH-RANKING SOURCE IN THE
ARMY TOLD DAO OFFICER THAT HE DOES NOT/NOT BELIEVE
PRESIDENT BARCO WILL RESPOND TO THE FARC'S CEASEFIRE BY
IMPOSING A SIMILAR TRUCE ON THE ARMED FORCES. "THANK
GOD," THE SOURCE EXCLAIMED, "THAT AT LEAST THIS TIME,
UNLIKE THE BETANCUR ADMINISTRATION, WE WILL NOT BE
FORCED INTO A UNILATERAL TRUCE BY THE PRESIDENT." THE
SOURCE EXPECTS THAT THE ARMED FORCES WILL CONTINUE
CONDUCTING COUNTER INSURGENCY OPERATIONS AGAINST ALL
GUERRILLA GROUPS, WHEREVER THEY ARE FOUND.

--------------

6. (C) BASED ON PREVIOUS PRIVATE STATEMENTS TO US FROM
PEACE COUNSELOR RAFAEL PARDO AND OTHERS WE AGREE THAT
THE GOC IS UNLIKELY TO CALL OFF THE RECENTLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE MILITARY. IN ADDITION, BARCO HAS MADE IT
CLEAR THAT THERE WILL BE NO SUBSTITUTE FOR HIS PEACE
PLAN. THE GOC HAS PROMISED NOTHING TO THE GUERRILLAS
AND IS NOW IN A POSITION TO SIT BACK AND SEE IF THE FARC
IS AS GOOD AS ITS WORD. NEVERTHELESS, SHOULD THE FARC
REALLY ABIDE BY ITS TRUCE, POLITICAL PRESSURE COULD
MOUNT FOR A GOVERNMENT RESPONSE IN KIND. IN ADDITION,
THE GOC WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER WHAT IF ANY CHANGES IN
MILITARY FIELD TACTICS MIGHT BE REQUIRED BY THE FARC'S
UNILATERAL CEASEFIRE.


MCNAMARA