SITREP NO. 8: TIANANMEN SQUARE CROWDS GROW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 14054

CINCPAC FOR FPA

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI CH
SUBJECT: SITREP NO. 8: TIANANMEN SQUARE CROWDS GROW
TO 300,000 OR MORE ON THE EVENING OF MAY 21;
GOVERNMENT DENIES LI PENG HAS ORDERED THE PLA TO
ATTACK STUDENTS EARLY ON MAY 22.

REF: BEIJING 14053 AND PREVIOUS



1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. SUMMARY: ACTIVISTS AND ONLOOKERS RETURNED TO
TIANANMEN SQUARE IN LARGE NUMBERS ON THE EVENING OF
MAY 21 AMID WIDESPREAD RUMORS THAT PLA TROOPS WOULD
ATTACK THE SQUARE IN THE EARLY HOURS OF MAY 22. BY
2100 (LOCAL TIME),THE CROWD HAD GROWN TO OVER
300,000. THERE WERE AT LEAST 50,000 ACTIVISTS IN THE
SQUARE, WITH MORE ARRIVING EVERY MINUTE. THE
GOVERNMENT DENIED CLAIMS BY STUDENTS THAT PREMIER LI
PENG HAD ORDERED THE ARMY TO MOVE INTO THE SQUARE AT
O500 ON MAY 22 AND KILL OR CAPTURE ALL THE STUDENTS
THERE. STUDENTS HAD A BUS IN POSITION TO BLOCK THE
POSSIBLE EMERGENCE OF TROOPS FROM THE WEST EXIT OF
THE TRAIN STATION, AND WERE USING LARGE CONTINGENTS
OF ACTIVISTS TO BLOCK MAJOR INTERSECTIONS NEAR
TIANANMEN SQUARE. MEDIA SOURCES REPORTED THAT THREE
AIDES TO ZHAO ZIYANG HAVE BEEN ARRESTED, AND THAT THE
MILITARY HAS TAKEN CONTROL OF PEOPLE'S DAILY AND
CCTV. EARLIER IN THE DAY, FOREIGN NEW AGENCIES
PREDICTED THAT THEIR LINES WOULD BE CUT SOON. THEY
ARE USING TRAVELLERS TO GET VIDEO MATERIAL OUT OF THE
COUNTRY. END SUMMARY.


TIANANMEN CROWD NUMBERS 300,000 AT 2100
--------------


3. AT 1900 ON MAY 21, THE CROWD AT TIANANMEN WAS
RELATIVELY LIGHT, NUMBERING ABOUT 150,000 TO
200,000. ABOUT 50,000 OF THAT NUMBER WERE ACTIVISTS
ON THE SQUARE. STUDENTS WERE SPREADING THE WORD OF
"LI PENG'S THREE POINTS" (SEE BELOW),CALLING ON
ONLOOKERS TO SUPPORT THEM WHEN THE SOLDIERS ARRIVED
EARLY ON MAY 22. STUDENTS TOLD EMBOFFS THAT THE
CROWD WOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER AFTER NIGHTFALL, IN
EXPECTATION OF THE ARMY'S ARRIVAL. BY 2100, THE
CROWD HAD GROWN TO ABOUT 300,000. ACTIVISTS WERE
BEING FERRIED IN BY TRUCKS, BUSES, AND CARS.
ONLOOKERS WERE BICYCLING INTO THE TIANANMEN AREA.
AT 2100 ONE OF THE OUTER GRANDSTANDS AT THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE SQUARE WAS FULL.


GOVERNMENT DENIES ATTACK ORDERS HAVE BEEN GIVEN
-------------- --


4. ALL THROUGH THE DAY ON MAY 21, STUDENTS IN THE
SQUARE WERE SPREADING THE WORD THAT THE ARMY HAD
RECEIVED ORDERS FROM THE GOVERNMENT TO ATTACK THE
STUDENTS AT O500 (LOCAL TIME) ON MAY 22. STUDENTS
CLAIMED THAT SYMPATHETIC SOURCES IN THE GOVERNMENT
HAD INFORMED THEM THAT TROOPS HAD BEEN INSTRUCTED BY
PREMIER LI PENG TO CLEAR THE SQUARE, "EVEN IF 200,000
STUDENTS WERE KILLED." PRISONS WERE BEING CLEARED TO
HOUSE STUDENTS, STUDENTS SAID, AND CLEAN-UP CREWS
ALERTED TO TIDY UP THE SQUARE AS SOON AS THE STUDENTS
WERE REMOVED. CNN REPORTED THIS INFORMATION ON MAY
21, CITING STUDENT SOURCES. AT 2230 ON MAY 21, THE
GOVERNMENT ISSUED A DENIAL THAT ANY SUCH ORDER HAD
BEEN GIVEN. THE GOVERNMENT'S STATEMENT, REPEATED
SEVERAL TIMES OVER RADIO AND TELEVISION, RECOUNTED
EACH ELEMENT OF THE ALLEGED "ORDER" AS DESCRIBED BY
THE STUDENTS AND DENIED THAT ANY PART OF IT WAS
TRUE. CITIZENS WERE WARNED TO BEWARE OF RUMOR
MONGERS.


THE CROWD'S MOOD: STUDENTS PREPARED TO DIE
--------------


5. EMBOFFS SPOKE TO QINGHUA UNIVERSITY STUDENTS WHO
WERE GUARDING ONE EXIT FROM THE QIANMEN SUBWAY. THE
STUDENTS, EXPECTING TO BE ATTACKED IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF MAY 22, SAID THAT THEY WOULD NOT
USE VIOLENCE AGAINST THE SOLDIERS. THE YOUTHS SAID
THEY WERE PREPARED TO DIE TO STOP THE ARMY FROM
CLEARING TIANANMEN SQUARE OF STUDENTS. THE
ONLOOKERS AND STUDENTS SEEMED ENERGETIC AND
DETERMINED IN THE MID-EVENING HOURS OF MAY 21.


TRAIN STATION: WEST EXIT BLOCKED
--------------


6. AS NOTED SITREP 7, THERE ARE CONFIRMED REPORTS
OF A TROOP TRAIN AT THE TRAIN STATION. STUDENTS ON
THE SQUARE TOLD EMBOFFS THAT THEY HAD SENT
EMISSARIES TO INVESTIGATE THE SITUATION AT THE
BEIJING TRAIN STATION. BETWEEN 2130 AND 2145,
EMBOFFS SAW AN EMPTY BUS BLOCKING THE WEST EXIT OF
THE TRAIN STATION, THE MOST DIRECT ROUTE TO THE
SQUARE FROM THE STATION. EMBOFFS ESTIMATED THAT UP
TO SIX THOUSAND STUDENTS WERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TRAIN STATION. THE TRAINS APPEARED TO BE RUNNING
NORMALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MAY 21.
EMBOFFS MET A WORKER IN THE SQUARE WHO HAD ARRIVED
BY TRAIN FROM NANJING THE AFTERNOON OF MAY 21. THE
WORKER HAD SEEN SOLDIERS CARRYING RIFLES AND
AMMUNITION ON HIS TRAIN, BUT HE SAID THAT THEY WERE
FEW IN NUMBER. AT 2200, EMBOFFS WITNESSED ORDINARY
TRAVELERS EMERGING FROM THE BEIJING STATION,
CARRYING LUGGAGE.


CHONGWENMEN BLOCKADE: STUDENTS TAKE THE LEAD
--------------


7. EMBOFFS INTERVIEWED STUDENTS AT CHONGWENMEN
INTERSECTION, WHICH WE BELIEVE IS TYPICAL OF OTHERS
NEAR THE TIANANMEN AREA. SIX TO EIGHT THOUSAND
STUDENTS WERE PRESENT AT THE INTERSEOCTION. A
STUDENT FROM XIAN WAS DIRECTING THE CROWD, ABOUT
HALF OF WHOM WERE STUDENTS. IN ADDITION TO THE
CROWD IN THE INTERSECTION, THERE WERE LARGE NUMBERS
OF PEOPLE BEYOND THE BLOCKADE. IN TALKING WITH
PEOPLE AT THE INTERSECTION, EMBOFFS WERE TOLD THAT
ALTHOUGH LOCAL PARTY COMMITTEES WERE NOT INVOLVED
MANY PARTY MEMBERS WERE. THE PARTICIPANTS TOLD
EMBOFFS THAT THEY BELIEVED THAT THE MILITARY WAS
GOING TO ADVANCE ON THE STUDENTS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF MAY 22.


ZHAO AIDES REPORTEDLY ARRESTED
--------------


8. A FOREIGN MEDIA SOURCE QUOTED A CHINESE
JOURNALIST TO TELL EMBOFF THAT THREE AIDES TO
GENERAL SECRETARY ZHAO ZIYANG HAVE BEEN ARRESTED.
THE AIDES WERE IDENTIFIED AS BAO TONG, WU JIAXIANG,
AND CHEN XIAOLU.


PRESS PROBLEMS
--------------


9. UPI AND OTHER AGENCIES EXPECT TO "HAVE THEIR
PLUGS PULLED" ON THE NIGHT OF MAY 21. ONE NETWORK
WAS THREATENED MAY 20 WITH HAVING ALL OF ITS IDD
PHONES CUT OFF, BUT MANAGED TO AVERT THIS THROUGH
NEGOTIATION. THE NETWORKS ARE ALL USING TRAVELLERS
TO GET VIDEO MATERIAL OUT OF THE COUNTRY; THE USE OF
SATELLITE FOR REPORTING IS OUT OF THE QUESTION, AND
CCTV FACILITIES ARE NOT AVAILABLE TO FOREIGN TV
NETS. RUMORS ABOUND THAT THE MILITARY HAS TAKEN OVER
CCTV AND THAT CENSORSHIP OF THE PRINT MEDIA IS IN
EFFECT. A U.S. NETWORK SOURCE REPORTED THAT 75
MILITARY OFFICIALS IN CIVILIAN CLOTHES TOOK CONTROL
OF THE PEOPLE'S DAILY ON THE MORNING OF MAY 21. NONE
OF THESE REPORTS HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED.


LILLEY