SITREP NO. 6: THE SCENE ON TIANANMEN, THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIJING 14047

CINCPAC FOR FPA

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI CH
SUBJECT: SITREP NO. 6: THE SCENE ON TIANANMEN, THE
MILITARY SITUATION, POSSIBLE CENTRAL
COMMITTEE MEETING, CHINESE PRESS PLAY

REFS.: A. BEIJING 14038 B. BEIJING 14039
- C. BEIJING 14037 D. BEIJING 14029
- E. BEIJING 14019


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. SUMMARY: BETWEEN 10 AND 20,000 STUDENTS OCCUPIED
TIANANMEN SQUARE AT NOON ON MAY 21. THE ATMOSPHERE
WAS FESTIVE AND THEY APPEARED CONFIDENT. ONLOOKERS
NEAR THE SQUARE NUMBERED BETWEEN 50,000 AND 80,000.
ACCORDING TO A STUDENT ON THE SQUARE, 100-200 HUNGER
STRIKERS REMAIN. STUDENTS CONTINUE TO CONTROL MUCH
OF CENTRAL BEIJING IN THE AREA OF TIANANMEN. THEY
CONTROL ACCESS TO THE CITY THROUGH AN ELABORATE
SYSTEM OF BLOCKADES. STUDENT ORGANIZERS APPEAR TO BE
IN CLOSE TOUCH WITH DEMONSTRATORS MANNING THE
ROADBLOCKS AND CAN DISPATCH REINFORCEMENTS TO WEAK
POINTS. THIS SUGGESTS TO US THAT DEMONSTRATORS MAY
BE GETTING SUPPORT FROM NEIGHBORHOOD PARTY AND
GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATIONS.


3. AT 11:00 PM, MAY 20, A POLITICAL DECISION WAS
MADE TO MOVE TROOPS INTO TIANANMEN AT 2:00 AM,
MAY 21. THE ORDER WAS RESCINDED BETWEEN 1:00 AM AND
2:00 AM, ACCORDING TO DAO BEIJING. AT PRESENT,
STUDENTS APPEAR TO FEAR AN ASSAULT ON THE SQUARE
EITHER FROM BEIJING'S TUNNEL SYSTEM OR VIA MILITARY
TRAIN INTO THE CITY.


4. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE HELD A
MEETING BETWEEN MAY 19 AND MAY 21 AT WHICH AT LEAST
ONE MEMBER STRONGLY OBJECTED TO MARTIAL LAW. WE HAVE
BEEN UNABLE TO CONFIRM THIS. PEOPLE'S DAILY COVERAGE
OF THE EVENTS OF THE LAST TWO DAYS SUGGESTS CONTINUED
RESISTANCE TO LI PENG IN THE MEDIA. END SUMMARY.

THE SCENE ON TIANANMEN AS OF 12:15 PM, MAY 21
--------------

5. STUDENTS REMAIN IN CONTROL OF CENTRAL BEIJING.
ACCORDING TO POLOFFS ON TIANANMEN SQUARE, THE NUMBER
OF ONLOOKERS IN THE AREA ROSE BETWEEN 10:00 AM AND
NOON. APPROXIMATELY 50-80,000 ONLOOKERS CROWD
CHANGAN AVENUE FROM THE BEIJING HOTEL IN THE EAST TO
THE WEST SIDE OF THE SQUARE. POLOFFS HAVE REPORTED
THAT STUDENTS ON THE SQUARE ITSELF NUMBER BETWEEN 10
AND 20,OOO. A STUDENT GUARD ON THE SQUARE TOLD
POLOFFS THAT BETWEEN 100 AND 200 HUNGER STRIKERS
REMAIN. THE ATMOSPHERE ON THE SQUARE IS FESTIVE.
MANY ONLOOKERS STROLL ABOUT IN THEIR SUNDAY BEST.
STUDENT DEMONSTRATORS APPEAR CONFIDENT, POLOFFS
REPORTED.


6. THE PATTERN OF ACTIVITY ON THE SQUARE HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSTANT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
GENERALLY, THE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE AT TIANANMEN DWINDLE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND BEGIN TO RECOVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CROWDS BEGIN ARRIVING DURING THE
EVENING BETWEEN 7:00 PM AND 8:00 PM AND PEAK IN THE
LATE EVENING.

ABOUT BARRICADES
--------------

7. AS REPORTED EARLIER, STUDENTS APPEAR TO CONTROL
ACCESS TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CITY THROUGH A
SYSTEM OF BARRICADES AROUND THE SECOND AND THIRD RING
ROADS AND AT OTHER MAJOR ROAD APPROACHES TO THE
CITY. AT TIMES, WE HAVE SEEN BARRICADES OF PEOPLE OR
VEHICLES ON THE CLOSER APPROACHES TO TIANANMEN SQUARE
AS WELL.


8. POLOFF VISITING ONE SUCH ROADBLOCK AT THE
INTERSECTION OF THE THIRD RING ROAD AND JIANGUOMENWAI
AVENUE REPORTED THAT THERE ARE MORE THAN 50 BUSSES IN
THE AREA. FOURTEEN BUSSES BENEATH THE JIANGUOMENWAI
AVENUE OVERPASS CONTROL PASSAGE ON THE THIRD RING
ROAD, WHICH RUNS NORTH-SOUTH. THE BUSSES HAVE LEFT A
ONE LANE OPENING ALONG THE ROAD AND CAN EASILY BLOCK
TRAFFIC BY DRIVING INTO THE LANE. SEVERAL OTHER OF
THE BUSSES BLOCK BOTH ENDS OF THE OVERPASS. MANY OF
THE REMAINING BUSSES PARKED ALONG JIANGUOMENWAI UP TO
XIDAWANG ROAD COULD BE PULLED INTO THE AVENUE TO
BLOCK TROOPS, ACCORDING TO POLOFF.


9. POLOFF REPORTED THAT CITY BUS DRIVERS ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR MOVING THEIR VEHICLES AT THIS
BARRICADE. ONE APPARENTLY FEARLESS DRIVER WITH WHOM
POLOFF TALKED STATED THAT HE AND HIS FELLOWS ARE
CONFIDENT THAT THEIR BLOCKADES WILL STOP PLA TANKS.
(BUT WE DOUBT IT.) HE ADDED THAT DRIVERS INTEND TO
REMAIN AT THE INTERSECTION AND WILL NOT RETURN TO
WORK ON MAY 22.


10. ACCORDING TO A STUDENT AT QINGHUA UNIVERSITY WHO
SPOKE WITH AN EMBASSY FCS OFFICER PRESENT AT THE
CAMPUS THIS MORNING, STUDENTS ON CAMPUS ARE IN CLOSE
TOUCH WITH DEMONSTRATORS MANNING THE BARRICADES AND
ARE ABLE TO DISPATCH REINFORCEMENTS TO WEAK SPOTS IN
THE SYSTEM. EMBOFFS HAVE WITNESSED LARGE CONVOYS OF
CIVILIAN MOTORCYCLES ON CHANGAN AVENUE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS ONE METHOD OF COMMUNICATION
BETWEEN STUDENT ORGANIZERS AND DEMONSTRATORS.
APPARENTLY STRONG COOPERATION AMONG WORKERS,
STUDENTS, AND OTHERS AT THE BLOCKADES SUGGESTS TO US
THAT DEMONSTRATORS MAY BE GETTING SUPPORT FROM
NEIGHBORHOOD PARTY AND GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATIONS.

MILITARY SITUATION
--------------

11. DAO HAS REPORTED EXTENSIVELY ON THE MILITARY
SITUATION (REFS. B-E). BASED ON DAO OBSERVATIONS OF
PLA ACTIVITIES AND ON DAO CONVERSATIONS WITH MILITARY
PERSONNEL, AT APPROXIMATELY 11:00 PM, MAY 20, A
POLITICAL DECISION WAS MADE TO MOVE ON TIANANMEN AT
2:00 AM. THE ORDER APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN RESCINDED
BETWEEN 1:00 AM AND 2:00 AM ON MAY 21. ACCORDING TO
DAO OBSERVERS, TROOPS AT GUCHENG, ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE CITY, STOOD DOWN FROM THEIR TRUCKS AND BEGAN
MINGLING WITH THE LOCAL POPULACE AT ABOUT 8:15 AM.
IT IS RUMORED THAT AT ABOUT 6:15 AM ON MAY 21 LI PENG
ANNOUNCED THAT THE ORDER HAD BEEN RESCINDED.


12. AS OF LATE MORNING, PLA TRUCKS CONVOYING
SOLDIERS AT GUCHENG HAD TURNED AROUND TO PARK FACING
IN A DIRECTION AWAY FROM THE CITY. STUDENTS AT
TIANANMEN SQUARE AND AT BEIJING UNIVERSITIES
REPORTEDLY FEAR THAT THE PLA WILL ATTEMPT TO TAKE THE
SQUARE TONIGHT VIA BEIJING'S UNDERGROUND TUNNEL
NETWORK OR VIA A MILITARY TRAIN THROUGH BEIJING
STATION.


13. AN AMERICAN CITIZEN REPORTED TO EMBASSY
AFTERNOON OF MAY 21 THAT PLA TROOPS HAD TAKEN OVER
BEIJING'S CENTRAL RAILWAY STATION. POLOFF WHO
SUBSEQUENTLY WENT TO THE STATION SAW NO SIGNS OF A
PLA PRESENCE INSIDE OR OUTSIDE OF THE STATION. HE
DID NOT, HOWEVER, OBSERVE THE PLATFORM AREAS, WHICH
REQUIRE A TICKET TO ENTER. ALTHOUGH CHINESE STUDENTS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATION ASSURED HIM THAT THE
SOLDIERS WERE THERE, THEY ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THEY HAD
NOT THEMSELVES SEEN THEM. ONE STUDENT ON TIANANMEN
SQUARE REPORTED THAT TROOPS HAD ALREADY LEFT THE
STATION.


14. AN AMERICAN STUDENT AT BEIJING UNIVERSITY
REPORTED TO EMBASSY THAT HE WITNESSED TANKS AND PLA
SOLDIERS AT AN INTERSECTION IN THE VICINITY OF
BEIJING UNIVERSITY ON THE MORNING OF MAY 21.
STUDENTS WERE CIRCULATING AMONG THE SOLDIERS,
ACCORDING TO THE AMERICAN. HE DID NOT SAY HOW MANY
TANKS WERE PRESENT. WE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO CONFIRM
THIS REPORT. THE FCS OFFICER AT QINGHUA REPORTED
WITNESSING LARGE CROWDS OF STUDENTS AT THE GATES OF
BEIJING AND PEOPLE'S UNIVERSITIES. HE DID NOT REPORT
HAVING SEEN ANY PLA TROOPS IN THE VICINITY OF
BEIJING'S UNIVERSITY DISTRICT, HOWEVER.

ANONYMOUS CALLER REPORTS CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEETING
-------------- --------------

15. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PARTY CONVENED A CENTRAL
COMMITTEE (CCPCC) MEETING SOMETIME BETWEEN THE NIGHT
OF MAY 19 AND EARLY THIS MORNING AT WHICH MEMBERS
DISSENTED WITH THE DECISION TO EMPLOY THE PLA TO
RESTORE ORDER IN BEIJING. AN ANONYMOUS CALLER WHO
PHONED CONGEN SHENYANG ON THE MORNING OF MAY 21 SAID
THAT THE PARTY HAD CONVENED A CCPCC MEETING AND THAT
CHAIRMAN OF THE ALL CHINA FEDERATION OF LABOR UNIONS
NI ZHIFU CONDEMNED THE DECISION TO IMPOSE MARTIAL LAW.


16. ACCORDING TO THE CALLER, NI DEMANDED AN END TO
MARTIAL LAW AND A POSITIVE REASSESSMENT OF THE
STUDENT DEMONSTRATIONS. HE ALSO DEMANDED THAT THE
GOVERNMENT HOLD TALKS WITH STUDENT LEADERS. THE
CALLER CLAIMED THAT NI THREATENED TO LEAD A GENERAL
STRIKE IF THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE FAILED TO ACCEPT HIS
DEMANDS. THE CALLER DID NOT STATE WHEN OR WHERE THE
MEETING WAS HELD OR IF OUT-OF-TOWN MEMBERS ATTENDED.


PEOPLE'S DAILY COVERAGE SUGGESTS LI PENG GOVERNMENT
HAS INCOMPLETE CONTROL OVER PRESS
-------------- --------------

17. THE MAY 20 AND 21 EDITIONS OF THE PEOPLE'S DAILY
INDICATE THAT LI PENG MAY NOT HAVE TOTAL CONTROL OVER
THE PRESS. THE FRONT PAGE OF THE MAY 20 EDITION
SHOWS COVERAGE OF THE LI PENG AND YANG SHANGKUN
SPEECHES OF MAY 19. IT SHOWS PICTURES OF YANG AND
LI. HOWEVER, THE UPPER RIGHT SIDE OF THE FRONT PAGE
DISPLAYS A LARGER PICTURE OF ZHAO ZIYANG ADDRESSING
STUDENTS AT TIANANMEN ON THE MORNING OF MAY 19.
BENEATH A HEADLINE STATING THAT ZHAO AND LI PENG
VISITED THE STUDENTS, BOLDFACED CHARACTERS ANNOUNCE
THAT "PARTY GENERAL SECRETARY ZHAO SINCERELY HOPES
THAT STUDENTS WILL LIVE TO SEE THE IMPLEMENTATION OF
THE FOUR MODERNIZATIONS."


18. THIS EDITION MUST HAVE BEEN PRINTED AFTER ZHAO'S
RUMORED RESIGNATION/REMOVAL AND AFTER LI AND YANG
DELIVERED THEIR MAY 19 CALLS FOR THE RESTORATION OF
ORDER IN THE CAPITAL. THE COVERAGE OF ZHAO'S VISIT
TO TIANANMEN, AS WELL AS THE USE OF HIS FORMAL TITLE
FURTHER CLOUD THE QUESTION OF ZHAO'S PRESENT STATUS
AND WHEREABOUTS.


19. THE FRONT PAGE OF THE MAY 21 EDITION OF THE
PEOPLE'S DAILY HEADLINES THE IMPOSITION OF MARTIAL
LAW AND THE ISSUANCE OF BEIJING MUNICIPAL
IMPLEMENTING REGULATIONS. NEVERTHELESS, A SMALL BOX
IN THE LOWER LEFT OF THE PAGE HEADLINED "THE FIRST
DAY OF MARTIAL LAW" REPORTS THAT AS OF 4:30 AM, MAY
21, HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF STUDENTS CONTINUED TO
OCCUPY TIANANMEN SQUARE AND THAT MARCHERS STILL ENTER
THE SQUARE DURING THE DAY. WE READ THIS ARTICLE AS A
SIGNAL TO PROVINCIAL READERS THAT MARTIAL LAW HAS SO
FAR FAILED TO CONTROL THE SITUATION IN BEIJING.
CONGENS SHANGHAI AND GUANGZHOU HAVE REPORTED THAT
THERE IS A NEWS BLACKOUT ON EVENTS IN BEIJING IN
THESE CITIES. WE DO NOT KNOW IF TODAY'S EDITION OF
THE PEOPLE'S DAILY HAS BEEN DISTRIBUTED OUTSIDE OF
BEIJING, HOWEVER.


LILLEY