SOMALI INSURGENCY: ETHIOPIAN COMPLICITY?

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOGADISHU 08032

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL MOPS PGOB PINS ET UR US SO
SUBJECT: SOMALI INSURGENCY: ETHIOPIAN COMPLICITY?

REF: (A) STATE 214518, (B) MOGADISHU 7910


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT


2. I TOOK ADVANTAGE OF A MEETING JULY 3 WITH ACTING
PERMSEC ABDULLAHI EGAL NUR TO PROBE A BIT
REGARDING GSDR'S CURRENT POSITION ON ETHIOPIAN ROLE IN
NORTHERN INSURGENCY. I HOPED IN PARTICULAR TO OBTAIN
INSIGHT INTO AMBASSADOR ADDOU'S DEMARCHE "UNDER
INSTRUCTIONS" (REF A),IN WHICH HE SEEMED TO TAKE A
MUCH MORE FORCEFULLY CRITICAL LINE ON ETHIOPIANS
THAN HAD PRESIDENT SIAD HIMSELF IN OUR CONVERSATION
JULY 1 (REF B).


3. CHOOSING HIS WORDS CAREFULLY, AMB ABDULLAHI TOLD
ME SOMALIA DID NOT CONSIDER ETHIOPIANS "CLEAN-HANDED",
BUT IT LACKED HARD EVIDENCE OF ANY SORT TO SUBSTANTIATE
ETHIOPIAN COMPLICITY. SOMALI GOVERNMENT WAS DEEPLY
DISTURBED BY THE FACT THAT SNM FORCES HAD NOT/NOT BEEN
DISARMED BEFORE BEING EXPELLED ACROSS BORDER. IT WAS
NOT CLEAR, HOWEVER, WHETHER THIS WAS A DELIBERATE
OVERSIGHT OR MERELY INADVERTENCY.


4. AMB ABDULLAHI THEN POINTED TO "GROSS EXAGGERATION"
BY ETHIOPIAN AUTHORITIES OF NUMBERS OF SOMALI
REFUGEES THAT HAD REPORTEDLY FLED ACROSS BORDER TO ESCAPE
FIGHTING IN NORTHERN REGION. ALTHOUGH ETHIOPIANS CLAMED
TO HAVE RECEIVED OVER ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND REFUGEES,
SOMALI GOVERNMENT WAS "CERTAIN" THAT FIGURE WAS NO
HIGHER THAN THIRTY THOUSAND. I SUGGESTED TO ABDULLAHI
THAT THIS HAD LITTLE BEARING ON QUESTION OF ETHIOPIAN
COMPLICITY WITH SNM, BUT HE CONTENDED THAT IT IMPLIED
AN ANTAGONISTIC BIAS ON ETHIOPIA'S PART.


5. I ASKED SPECIFICALLY ABOUT EVIDENCE THAT ETHIOPIA
HAD HELPED RESUPPLY SNM AFTER ATTACKS BEGAN. HE REPLIED
THERE WAS NO/NO HARD EVIDENCE, ONLY "CIRCUMSTANTIAL"
INDICATIONS.


6. AS I LEFT THE MEETING WITH ABDULLAHI, ESCORTED
BY PROTOCOL CHIEF ABDI HAJI, I REGISTERED MILD SURPRISE
TO THE LATTER THAT ABDULLAHI HAD NOT/NOT MENTIONED
INSTRUCTIONS TO AMB ADDOU (REF A) TO RAISE THIS ISSUE
WITH A/S CROCKER. ABDI RESPONDED THAT HE WAS UNAWARE THA
ANY SUCH INSTRUCTIONS HAD BEEN SENT TO WASHINGTON FROM
MINISTRY. HOWEVER, HE CONFIDED THAT ADDOU HAD TELEPHONED
PRESIDENT SIAD DIRECTLY ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS RECENTLY,
IMPLYING THAT INSTRUCTIONS COULD HAVE BEEN CONVEYED
TO ADDOU DIRECTLY BY PRESIDENT.


7. ABDI HAJI ALSO VOLUNTEERED HIS SUGGESTION THAT
CROCKER SHOULD CLOSELY QUESTION SOVIET VICE MINISTER
ADAMISHIN ABOUT ETHIOPIA'S ROLE AND WHAT SOVIETS
WERE PREPARED TO DO TO ENSURE ETHIOPIANS KEPT
HANDS OFF. HE EXPLAINED THAT, WHEN ADAMISHIN
VISITED MOGADISHU IN APRIL, HE MADE A BIG FUSS ABOUT
WHETHER SOMALIA COULD PERSUADE USG TO SERVE AS
"GUARANTOR" OF SOMALI-ETHIOPIAN PEACE AGREEMENT.
SOVIETS, HE DECLARED, WERE PREPARED TO SIGN ON
ETHIOPIA'S BEHALF.
-

8. COMMENT: JUDGING FROM WHAT I'VE HEARD FROM
PRESIDENT SIAD AND AMB ABDULLAHI, I SUSPECT OUR
FRIEND ADDOU MAY HAVE PROMPTED THE PRESIDENT TO
ISSUE THE INSTRUCTIONS HE THEN CARRIED TO A/S CROCKER.
MORE AND MORE, IT APPEARS THAT PEOPLE AROUND SIAD
ARE PUSHING HIM IN WHATEVER DIRECTION APPEARS TO
SERVE THEIR OWN INTERESTS (OR THEIR OWN CONCEPT OF
THE NATION'S INTERESTS),WHILE SIAD HIMSELF IS
BUFFETED BY THEIR CROSS PURPOSES. I DO NOT/NOT BELIEVE
WE ARE ANY CLOSER THAN BEFORE TO SEEING HARD EVIDENCE
OF ETHIOPIAN COMPLICITY, BUT IT IS OBVIOUS THAT --
WHETHER SIAD LIKES IT OR NOT -- THE BLUSH
IS OFF OF HIS VAUNTED PEACE AGREEMENT WITH ETHIOPIA.


CRIGLER