IRAQ KEEPS THREATENING TO SEND MISSILES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 02571

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, KPAL, IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQ KEEPS THREATENING TO SEND MISSILES

1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.

2. SUMMARY: EVERY DAY THE IRAQIS TURN OUT MILITARY
COMMUNIQUES THREATENING "SEVERE PUNISHMENT" AGAINST
IRAN FOR CONTINUING TO SHELL IRAQI BORDER TOWNS (TYPI-
CALLY ONLY DARBANDIKHAN, WHICH TODAY SCARCELY FITS THE
DEFINITION OFIA CIVILIAN TARGET). WITH NEARLY THREE
WEEKS ELAPSING SINCE THE END OF THE MISSILE WAR, IT
SEEMS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE IRAQIS INTEND TO
DO NO MORE THAN KEEP THE IRANIANS AWARE THAT THEIR
"FINGER IS ON THE TRIGGER" SHOULD THE IRANIANS TRY
ANYTHING BIG, ALTHOUGH THE VALUE OF THE IRAQI WARNINGS
IS GROWING INCREASINGLY HOLLOW. END SUMMARY.

3. THERE HAS BEEN NO RELENTING YET IN THE STRIDENCY
OF IRAQI WARNINGS THAT IF THE IRANIANS DO NOT DESIST
IN SHELLING BORDER CITIES AND "VIOLATING THE CONDI-
IONS STIPULATED FOR THE HALT OF IRANIAN CITIES,"
IRAQ WILL METE OUT "SEVERE PUNISHMENT" (CLEAR REFER-
ENCE TO RESUMPTION OF USE OF MISSILES). THE ODD THING
LS THAT IN THE PAST WEEK THE IRAQI MEDIA HAVE MENTION-
ED ONLY TWO SUCH "BORDER CITIES"--DARBANDIKHAN (NEAR
HALABJA) EVERY DY, AND ON ONE OCCASION ABUL-KHASIB
(NEAR BASRA). BOTH ARE ABANDONED AND BOTH SIT
ASTRIDE IMPORTANT HIGHWAYS CLOSE TO IRANIAN LINES
THAT ARE OBVIOUS TARGETS FOR IRANIAN ARTILLERY.
(INDEED, IT IS ESSENTIAL FROM A MILITARY STANDPOINT
FOR IRAN TO TRY TO INTERDICT MOVEMENT ALONG BOTH
HIGHWAYS.)

4. FOR THEIR PART, THE IRAQIS STRUCK THE SHIRAZ
REFINERY AND PETROCHEMICAL COMPLEX ON MAY 4. THE
SUBSEQUENT MILITARY COMMUNIQUE MADE IT CLEAR THAT
THEY INTEND TO CONTINUE HITTING SUCH ECONOMIC TARGETS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE WAR.

5. OF PARTICULAR NOTE, AS WE OBSERVE FROM FBIS
REPORTAGE OF IRANIAN BROADCASTS, IS THE FERVOR WITH
WHICH THE IRANIANS DENY STRIKING ANY CIVILIAN
TARGETS IN IRAQ--INCLUDING DENYING ANY SHELLING
OF DARBANDIKHAN. OUR AUSTRALIAN COLLEAGUES TELL US
THAT TEHRAN IS JUST BEGINNING TO COME BACK TO LIFE
FULLY. THEIR EMBASSY IN TEHRAN ASSESSES THAT THE
IRANIANS ARE EXTREMELY KEEN TO PREVENT A RESUMPTION
OF THE MISSILE EXCHANGE--UNTIL, THAT IS, IRAN FEELS
ON A TECHNOLOGICAL PAR WITH IRAQ AND CAN DELIVER
JUST AS STRONG BLOWS AGAINST BAGHDAD AS THE IRAQIS
CAN AGAINST TEHRAN. FOR THEIR PART, THE IRAQIS
HAVE ALSO BEEN KEEN TO DENY IRANIAN CLAIMS OF
IRAQI STRIKES ON IRANIAN BORDER AREAS.

6. MEANWHILE, IRAQ CONTINUES OFFICIALLY TO BUBBLE
OVER WITH PLEASURE AT THE VICTORY AT FAO AND THE
MIGHTINESS OF THE HUSSEIN MISSILE, NOW FOLLOWED BY
THE ABBAS MISSILE OF A CLAIMED EVEN LONGER STRIKING
POWER. SADDAM HUSSEIN HAS MADE NO FEWER THAN FOUR
VISITS TO AN EXHIBITION OF THE MILITARY INDUSTRY
COMMISSION, AND ON MAY 5 HE BESTOWED ON THE COMMIS-
SION'S DIRECTOR--HIS SON-IN-LAW AND COUSIN HUSAYN
KAMIL (JUST PROMOTED FROM COLONEL TO BRIGADIER)--
AND SEVERAL OF ITS STAFF "RAFIDAIN MEDALS FOR
DISTINGUISHED SERVICE." IN VIRTUALLY EVERY HIGH-
LEVEL MILITARY MEETING SADDAM NOW HAS, HUSAYN KAMIL
IS PHOTOGRAPHED AT HIS SIDE, ALONG WITH HIS BROTHER-
IN-LAW AND COUSIN DEFENSE MINISTER ADNAN KHAYRALLAH.
THE BIG NEWS IN THE PRESS MAY 8 WAS THE OFFICIAL
DELIVERY BY PARTY NUMBER-TWO IZZAT IBRAHIM TO SADDAM
OF HIS LATEST BIRTHDAY PRESENT, A MINIATURE OF THE
HUSSEIN MISSILE FROM THE PEOPLE OF SALAH AL DIN
(TIKRIT) PROVINCE. THE BIG NEWS ON MAY 9 WAS
SADDAM'S PRESIDING OVER DISCUSSION OF FINAL DESIGNS
FOR A MONUMENT TO BE ERECTED AT THE BILAT AL-SHUHADA
SCHOOL, DESTROYED BY AN IRANIAN MISSILE OCTOBER 13,
AND HIS REVIEWING A HALL FULL OF BIRTHDAY PRESENTS
"GIVEN TO HIM BY THE IRAQI PEOPLE SHOWING THEIR JOY."

7. SADDAM'S MAY 1 INTERVIEW WITH AN EGYPTIAN
JOURNALIST SANA AL-SA'ID, WAS FINALLY PUBLISHED MAY 6
(SEE FBIS JNO70944). SADDAM TYPICALLY PREFERS ARAB
TO NON-ARAB JOURNALISTS, PARTLY OUT OF NATIONALISM
AND PARTLY BECAUSE THEY TEND TO ASK LESS DELICATE
QUESTIONS. SANA AL-SA'ID DID TRY A FEW INTERESTING
QUESTIONS, BUT SADDAM DOGGEDLY DODGED THEM. SHE
TRIED TO GET HIM TO SAY SOMETHING PROVOCATIVE ABOUT
HOW FAO IS A HARBINGER OF ARAB VICTORY OVER JERUSALEM,
BUT HE MEALY-MOUTHED ABOUT LACK OF ARAB UNITY AND
PROBLEMS WITH WORLD OPINION. SHE TRIED TO GET HIM
TO CASTIGATE OMAN, QATAR, AND THE EMIRATES, BUT HE
DID NOT BITE. SHE INSINUATED SUPERPOWER UNHELP-
FULNESS, BUT THERE WERE NO WORDS OF CRITICISM
FOR THE SOVIET UNION, AND HE EXCUSED U.S. NAVAL
PRESENCE IN THE GULF AS BEING LONGSTANDING AND,
IN ANY CASE, SOMETHING FOR WHICH IRAN IS ENTIRELY
TO BLAME. HE REFUSED TO BLAME THE PLO FOR RAP-
PROCHEMENT WITH SYRIA. HE LIED EFFUSIVELY ABOUT
HOW THE IRAQIS NOW RELY ON THEMSELVES FOR MOST
WEAPONS, INCLUDING THE HUSSEIN MISSILE, ALTHOUGH
HE DID CONTRADICTORILY ADMIT THAT "PURCHASES OF
SOVIET ARMS ARE STILL BIG."

8. ARAFAT, WHO ARRIVED IN BAGHDAD FROM DAMASCUS ON
APRIL 26, IS STILL IN TOWN, GETTING PUBLICITY FOR
HIS PROMINENCE IN SADDAM'S BIRTHDAY CELEBRATIONS AND
IN MEETINGS WITH SADDAM ON APRIL 27 AND MAY 7. BE-
TWEEN THESE DATES THERE WERE MEETINGS OF THE PLO
EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE AND THE HIGHER COMMITTEE FOR
OCCUPIED LAND AFFAIRS. PLO STATEMENTS AS PUBLISHED
IN THE BAGHPAD PRESS ARE MAINLY DEVOTED TO PRAISE OF
THE VICTORY AT FAO "LEADING TO VICTORY IN JERUSALEM."

9. SAUDI ARABIA'S RUPTURE OF RELATIONS WITH IRAN
HAS BEEN A MAJOR SOURCE OF PRAISE AMONG EDITORIALISTS,
WITH A STRONG UNDERCURRENT THEME THAT OTHER ARAB
STATES MUST FOLLOW SUIT. DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER TAHA
YASIN RAMADAN, CARRYING SADDAM'S LETTER OF PRAISE
FOR SAUDI ARABIA'S TOUGH STAND AGAINST IRAN, MET
KING FAHD IN RIYADH MAY 6 AND MADE HIS SECOND UMRA
TO MECCA IN LESS THAN THREE WEEKS.

10. COMMENT: IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE IS HOPE FOR
A CONTINUED LULL IN THE MISSILE WAR. WHILE THE
IRAQIS GREATLY RELISHED THE DISRUPTION IN TEHRAN,
THEY ARE RESTRAINED BY COUNTERVAILING FACTORS.
BAGHDAD WAS ALSO DISRUPTED, EVEN IF TO A MUCH RE-
DUCED DEGREE THAN TEHRAN; BAGHDADIS WERE BEGINNING
TO BE VERY MUCH ON EDGE. THE IRAQIS MAY HAVE
WORRIED ABOUT SUPPLY PROBLEMS; NO MATTER WHICH
REPORT ONE BELIEVES, IRAQ'S SUPPLY OF MISSILES IS
NOT LIMITLESS. PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANT, THE
IRAQIS MAY HAVE--OR SHOULD HAVE, BY ANY LOGIC--
CALCULATED THAT MISSILES ARE MORE EFFECTIVE AS A
DETERRENT IF NOT OVERUSED. NOW THE IRANIANS
PAINFULLY KNOW WHAT THE IRAQIS CAN DO, AND TEHRAN
IS BEING REPOPULATED; HENCEFORTH, THE IRANIANS
WILL HAVE TO CALCULATE CAREFULLY ABOUT THEIR
ATTACKS ON THE GROUND OR WITH MISSILES.

11. IN THE LONGER RUN, THE PICTURE MAY NOT BE
SO HOPEFUL. WE ARE IN A REGIONAL ARMS RACE, AND
IF THE IRANIANS ARE ABLE TO CATCH UP, A DEADLIER
MISSILE WAR MAY ULTIMATELY BE IN THE OFFING. IN
THIS RACE, THE IRANIANS HAVE A DISTINCT ADVANTAGE
OVER THE IRAQIS, NAMELY, THAT BAGHDAD AND OTHER
IRAQI POPULATION CENTERS LIE FOUR OR FIVE TIMES
NEARER THE BORDER THAN DO MOST IRANIAN CITIES.
THE IRANIANS THEREFORE ONLY NEED SMALLER MISSILES
WHICH MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SPEEDIER PRODUCTION
IN GREATER QUANTITY, OR IN THE CASE OF MISSILES OF
SIMILAR SIZE AND PROPELLENT, THEY ARE ABLE TO
PACK IN MUCH MORE EXPLOSIVES. EITHER PROSPECT
SHOULD GIVE THE IRAQIS PAUSE, AS THEY CONGRATULATE
THEMSELVES ON THEIR NEW MISSILES.

NEWTON