THE RELIGIOUS SUCCESSION IN IRAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 00224

PASS TO CONGEN DUBAI

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV SOCI IR IZ
SUBJECT: THE RELIGIOUS SUCCESSION IN IRAN

REF: ABU DHABI 137


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. AN ARAB BUSINESSMAN IN REFTEL SAID THAT GRAND
AYATOLLAH KHOI'S RELATIVES IN IRAN ALLEGE THAT
SEVENTY PERCENT OF IRANIAN SHI'A, AND ALMOST ALL
IRAQI SHI'A, FOLLOW KHOI'S INTERPRETATION OF ISLAM.
WE HAVE RECEIVED MUCH THE SAME VERSION FROM ONE OF
KHOI'S SONS HERE. WE ALSO RECALL EARLIER CONGEN
DHAHRAN REPORTING THAT A SIMILAR PERCENTAGE OF SAUDI
SHI'A ADHERE TO HIM.


3. WE TOO WOULD LIKE TO HAVE RELIABLE CONFIRMATION
OF KHOI'S APPEAL IN IRAN. WE ARE NOT SO SURE ABOUT
CONGEN DUBAI'S ASSESSMENT THAT KHOI'S POSITION MAY
HAVE BEEN ERODED IN IRAN. AFTER ALL, KHOMEINI WAS
IN NAJAF FOR FOURTEEN YEARS, WHICH DID NOTHING TO
ERODE HIS STANDING IN IRAN. KHOI HAS BEEN IN NAJAF
FOR MOST OF THIS CENTURY, FOLLOWING A TRADITION OF
IRANIAN AYATOLLAHS THAT GOES BACK TO 1722. WE DOUBT,
AS SUGGESTED BY REFTEL'S SOURCE,THAT KHOI HAS COME
TO BAGHDAD OR THAT HE IS INVOLVED IN ANY WAY IN ANTI-
KHOMEINI BROADCASTS. ALTHOUGH HE IS CERTAINLY NO
FRIEND OF KHOMEINI, WHOM HE CONSIDERS AN UPSTART
WITH DUBIOUS RELIGIOUS CREDENTIALS, HE HAS STEAD-
FASTLY REFUSED TO TAKE SIDES PUBLICLY ON THE WAR.


4. WHETHER KHOI IS ACTUALLY A THREAT TO MONTAZERI
OR ANY OTHER POTENTIAL SUCCESSOR TO KHOMEINI IS
ANOTHER MATTER, SINCE KHOI, WHO IS NOW AGED AND
INFIRM, IS NO MORE POLITICALLY ORIENTED, WE UNDER-
STAND, THAN GOLPAYEGANI. KHOI HAS ALWAYS BEEN A
STRONG PROPONENT OF THE QUIETIST SCHOOL OF AYATOL-
LAHS WHO INSIST THAT CLERICS SHOULD STAY OUT OF
GOVERNMENT. UNLIKE KHOMEINI'S CASE, ALLEGIANCE TO
KHOI'S RELIGIOUS INTERPRETATIONS DOES NOT NECESSARILY
MEAN SUPPORT OF A POLITICAL NATURE. THE ISSUE, AS
REFTEL POINTED OUT, IS THAT THE LEGITIMACY OF A
SUCCESSOR REGIME WILL DEPEND TO A MAJOR DEGREE ON
THE PERCEPTION OF ITS RELIGIOUS CREDENTIALS.


5. ONE ISSUE OF PARTICULAR INTEREST TO US IS THE
PRINCIPLE OF THE USULI SCHOOL OF TWELVER SHI'A
ISLAM DOMINANT IN IRAN THAT RULINGS OF A CLERIC,
NO MATTER HOW PROMINENT, LOSE THEIR VALIDITY WHEN
HE DIES, ENTIRELY UNLIKE THE SUNNIS OR THE MINORITY
TWELVER SCHOOL WHO HAVE A CORPUS OF CANON LAWS.
IT IS FOR THIS REASON THAT IRAN HAS A CLERGY AND
THE ARAB STATES DO NOT IN THE SAME SENSE. WE
WOULD THEREFORE EXPECT THE RULINGS OF KHOI, A
VERY TRADITIONAL CLERIC, NOT TO OUTLIVE HIM.
WHETHER KHOMEINI'S WILL IS THE QUESTION. IF SO,
HE WILL BE THE FIRST AYATOLLAH TO HAVE A "CALIPH"(SUCC
ESSOR),AND SHI'A ISLAM IN IRAN AND ITS ROLE IN
THE COUNTRY WILL BE CHANGED IN A SIGNIFICANT WAY.


NEWTON