BEN ALI AS PRIME MINISTER: WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 TUNIS 11489

E.O. 12356:
TAGS: PGOV PREL TS
SUBJECT: BEN ALI AS PRIME MINISTER: WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

REF: TUNIS 11130


1. SECRET - ENTIRE TEXT.

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SUMMARY
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2. BOURGUIBA'S ABRUPT DISMISSAL OF SFAR AND
ELEVATION OF INTERIOR MINISTER BEN ALI AGAIN
DEMONSTRATES PRESIDENT BOURGUIBA'S PERSONAL CONTROL
OF POWER IN TUNISIA. BEN ALI'S APPOINTMENT PUTS A
STRONG MAN IN THE PRIME MINISTRY AND A HEARTBEAT AWAY
FROM THE PRESIDENCY. IN GOVERNING, BEN ALI WILL HAVE
SUPPORT FROM SOCIAL AFFAIRS MINISTER BACCOUCHE, CHIEF
OF STAFF BARKETT AND PRESIDENTIAL COMPANION SAIDA
SASSI. ON THE OTHER HAND, BEN ALI WILL PROBABLY BE
AT ODDS WITH PSD DIRECTOR MAHJOUB BEN ALI. BEN ALI'S
RAPPORT WITH EDUCATION MINISTER SAYAH DESERVES
PARTICULAR ATTENTION. ADDITIONAL CABINET CHANGES ARE
WIDELY RUMORED--THE ECONOMIC MINISTRIES, JUSTICE, AND
POSSIBLY DEFENSE AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS. BEN ALI'S MOST
DRAMATIC POLICY SIGNAL HAS BEEN A CALL FOR
RESPONSIBLE DIALOGUE AND DIRECT CONTACT WHICH WAS
FOLLOWED UP BY MEETINGS WITH HUMAN RIGHTS LEADERS.
U.S. INTERESTS ARE WELL SERVED BY BEN ALI'S
APPOINTMENT SINCE IT WILL ENHANCE STABILITY IN THE
NEAR AND LONGER TERM. WHILE HE IS NOT "AMERICA'S
MAN," HE CARRIES NO IDEOLOGICAL BAGGAGE WHICH WOULD
IMPEDE CLOSE WORKING RELATIONS. U.S. INTERESTS ARE
ALSO SERVED BY BEN ALI'S TENTATIVE OPENING TO CRITICS
WHICH SHOULD BE ENCOURAGED. END SUMMARY.

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BOURGUIBA MAINTAINS CONTROL
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3. (NO FORN) - PRESIDENT BOURGUIBA HAS AGAIN
DEMONSTRATED HIS PERSONAL CONTROL OF TUNISIAN
POLITICS BY ABRUPTLY DISMISSING RACHID SFAR AND
ELEVATING PRIME MINISTER BEN ALI (REFTEL) TO THE
PRIME MINISTRY. SFAR'S DISMISSAL WAS EXPLAINED LAST
WEEK AS A RESULT OF PRESIDENTIAL DISSATISFACTION WITH
THE FORMER PRIME MINISTER'S ATTEMPT TO DESIGNATE HIS
CANDIDATE, ABDELMALEK AL 'ARIF, AS DIRECTOR OF THE
RULING DESTOURIAN SOCIALIST PARTY (PSD). THAT
EXPLANATION HAS GAINED CREDIBILITY BY THE SUBSEQUENT
REPORT IN A LEADING NEWSPAPER THAT BOURGUIBA AND SFAR
FIRST CLASHED OVER APPOINTMENTS SEPT. 10 WHEN SFAR
PROPOSED AL 'ARIF AS MINISTER OF INFORMATION, ONLY TO
HAVE THE PRESIDENT OVERRULE HIM AND APPOINT
ABDELWAHAB ABDULLAH TO THAT POST. A SIRO SOURCE
REPORTED THAT BOURGUIBA PROPOSED THE PRIME MINISTRY
TO BEN ALI SEPT. 13 BUT THE LATTER RECOMMENDED THE
CHANGE TAKE PLACE AFTER THE MTI TRIAL WHICH CONCLUDED
SEPT. 27. NEVERTHELESS, THE CHANGE ITSELF WAS
HANDLED CLUMSILY WITH THE PRESIDENT PLACING HIMSELF
IN THE EMBARRASSING POSITION OF APPROVING HIGH-LEVEL
APPOINTMENTS ONE DAY--I.E PARTY CHIEF, MINISTER OF
CULTURE ETC.--ONLY TO RETRACT THEM THE NEXT. BY
SEVERAL RELIABLE ACCOUNTS, THE PRESIDENT WAS ALSO
EXTRAORDINARILY ABUSIVE TO FORMER PRIME MINISTER
SFAR, AT THE CABINET MEETING SEPT. 30, WHO PROTESTED
ALL ALONG THAT HE HAD ACTED WITH PRESIDENTIAL
APPROVAL. HENCE, THE PRESIDENT HAS SIMULTANEOUSLY
REASSERTED PRESIDENTIAL PREROGATIVES WHILE RAISING
QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS GRIP ON EVENTS.


4. LIKE HIS PREDECESSORS, BEN ALI'S RAPPORT WITH THE
PRESIDENT WILL BE A CRUCIAL FACTOR IN HIS ABILITY TO
GOVERN. ON SECURITY ISSUES, HE HAS SHOWN A DEFT
TOUCH -- E.G. OPPOSING THE CREATION OF MTI MARTYRS
WITHOUT LOOSING CREDIBILITY. BEN ALI'S FIRST
OFFICIAL STATEMENT CAREFULLY ACKNOWLEDGED
PRESIDENTIAL PREROGATIVES AND CHARACTERIZED THE PRIME
MINISTER AS FIRST AMONG EQUALS IN SERVING THE
PRESIDENT.

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A STRONGMAN A HEARTBEAT AWAY
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5. UNLIKE SFAR, BEN ALI IS NOT VIEWED AS A
TRANSITIONAL FIGURE. ANY PRIME MINISTER SERVES AT
THE PLEASURE OF THE PRESIDENT AND BOURGUIBA HAS NEVER
TOLERATED A TRULY POWERFUL PRIME MINISTER IN THE
PAST. NEVERTHELESS BEN ALI'S TENURE IS MORE SECURE
THAN HIS PREDECESSOR'S BECAUSE HE IS A PILLAR OF
TUNISIA'S INTERNAL SECURITY ESTABLISHMENT -- NOT
IRREPLACEABLE, BUT NOT EASILY REPLACED. WITH BEN
ALI'S APPOINTMENT, THE ENTIRE SUCCESSION PICTURE HAS
OBVIOUSLY CHANGED. INSTEAD OF A WEAK PROSPECTIVE
PRESIDENT WHO WOULD HAVE INVITED CHALLENGES FROM
POLITICAL OPPONENTS, THERE IS A STRONG AND VIGOROUS
SUCCESSOR. WHATEVER ELSE HAPPENS, THE INTERNAL
SECURITY SITUATION IS NOT LIKELY TO GET OUT OF HAND
AS LONG AS THERE IS NO OPEN SPLIT IN THE RULING
ESTABLISHMENT.

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ALLIES
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4. BEN ALI'S ALLIES IN THE GOVERNMENT ARE STRONG AND
WELL PLACED. FIRST AND FOREMOST IS SOCIAL AFFAIRS
MINISTER BACCOUCHE WHO ALSO COMES FROM HAMMAM SOUSSE
AND IS AN OLD PERSONAL FRIEND. BACCOUCHE IS PRESUMED
TO BE BEN ALI'S PRIMARY POLITICAL ADVISOR. AN ADROIT
POLITICIAN, BACCOUCHE WAS PSD DIRECTOR (1983-86) AND
IS CURRENTLY MANAGING TUNISIA'S NEGOTIATIONS WITH
LIBYA AND THEIR IMPACT ON HER RELATIONS WITH ALGERIA
AND MOROCCO. BACCOUCHE'S MAJOR LIABILITY IS THE
PRESIDENT'S ANTIPATHY FOR HIM WHICH STEMS IN PART AT
LEAST FROM BACCOUCHE'S INDEPENDENT ATTITUDE AS PARTY
DIRECTOR. SECOND, CHIEF OF STAFF BARKETT THINKS
HIGHLY OF BEN ALI AND HAS MAINTAINED REGULAR
CONTACT. INDEED, BARKETT WAS THE ONLY SENIOR
MILITARY FIGURE WHO FAILED TO ATTEND A DINNER AT THE
FRENCH EMBASSY ON THE EVE OF THE GOVERNMENT CHANGE,
WHICH HAS PRODUCED SPECULATION THAT HE ALONE IN THE
DEFENSE ESTABLISHMENT WAS INFORMED AND CONSULTED BY
BEN ALI IN ADVANCE. THIRD, PRESIDENTIAL COMPANION
SAIDA SASSI WAS OBSERVED AS AN ALMOST DAILY VISITOR
TO THE INTERIOR MINISTRY IN RECENT WEEKS. SHE HAS
EVEN PLACED PHONE CALLS FROM BEN ALI'S OFFICE. BY
SEVERAL ACCOUNTS, BEN ALI SUCCEEDED IN CONVINCING
SASSI TO COUNSEL MODERATION TO THE PRESIDENT IN THE
MTI TRIAL. THE BEN ALI-SASSI CONNECTION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE DEEPLY ROOTED AND MAY NOT ENDURE.

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ADVERSARIES
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6. BEN ALI HAS GENERALLY NOT ENGENDERED PERSONAL
ANTIMOSITY. NEVERTHELESS, HE HAS POLITICAL RIVALS
AND PERSONAL ANTIPATHIES. THE NEW PSD DIRECTOR
MAHJOUB BEN ALI IS THOUGHT TO BE ON A TOTALLY
DIFFERENT WAVELENGTH THAN THE PRIME MINISTER. PRIME
MINISTER BEN ALI IS MORE SUBTLE AND SEES THE NUANCES
OF A SITUATION. PSD DIRECTOR BEN ALI IS A BLUNT
INSTRUMENT. MOREOVER, THE PSD'S NEWLY RE-ACTIVATED
MILITIA'S ARE HELD IN CONTEMPT BY THE PROFESSIONAL
SECURITY ESTABLISHMENT AND THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SEVERAL RELATIVELY MINOR CONFRONTATIONS BETWEEN THE
TWO GROUPS. PRESIDENT BOURGUIBA PRESUMABLY
RECOGNIZED THE INCOMPATIBILITY AND NAMED MAHJOUB IN
PART AS A COUNTERWEIGHT TO THE NEW PRIME MINISTER.
PRIME MINISTER BEN ALI ALSO REPORTEDLY DISLIKES
MINISTER OF TRANSPORT, HOUSING AND EQUIPMENT SKHIRI
WHO HIMSELF ALMOST CERTAINLY ASPIRED TO HEAD THE
GOVERNMENT. SKHIRI HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH
CORRUPTION IN THE PAST AND HAS REPORTEDLY MISMANAGED
HIS MINISTRY SO HE IS NOT IN A PARTICULARLY STRONG
POSITION. EDUCATION MINISTER SAYAH WOULD BE A MUCH
MORE FORMIDABLE ADVERSARY GIVEN HIS PERSONAL RAPPORT
WITH THE PRESIDENT (HE IS BOURGUIBA'S BIOGRAPHER) AND
DEEP AND WIDE PARTY CONNECTIONS. BECAUSE OF HIS
POLITICAL SKILLS, SAYAH WAS FOR MANY THE LEADING
CANDIDATE TO SUCCEED SFAR AND EVENTUALLY THE
PRESIDENT HIMSELF. HE NOW FINDS A FORMIDABLE
OBSTACLE IN THE WAY OF THOSE AMBITIONS. SAYAH'S ONLY
HINT OF DISATISFACTION THUS FAR WAS A PUBLIC COMMENT
PRIOR TO THE GOVERNMENT CHANGE TO THE EFFECT THAT
TUNISIA HAS BEEN AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE LEAD BY
CIVILIANS -- A POSSIBLE REFERENCE TO BEN ALI'S
MILITARY BACKGROUND. THE SAYAH-BEN ALI RELATIONSHIP
BEARS WATCHING.

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MORE CABINET CHANGES?
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7. SINCE BEN ALI'S APPOINTMENT, TUNIS' RUMOR MILLS
HAVE BEEN WORKING OVERTIME AND FURTHER CABINET
CHANGES ARE ALMOST UNIVERSALLY EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE
SPECULATIONS HAS FOCUSED ON THE ECONOMIC MINISTRIES.
THE PRESIDENT REPORTEDLY MADE A SLIGHTING REMARK IN
THE SEPT. 30 CABINET MEETING ABOUT MINISTER OF PLAN
KHELIL'S FREQUENT TRIPS TO THE U.S. (HE HAS BEEN IN
WASHINGTON FOR IMF MEETINGS.) BEN ALI, WHOSE
ECONOMIC EXPERIENCE IS NIL, IS ALSO PERCEIVED TO NEED
HELP PARTICULARLY IN THIS DOMAIN. JUSTICE MINISTER
AYARI IS ALSO THOUGHT TO BE BURNT OUT. MOREOVER, THE
PRESIDENT WAS REPORTEDLY NOT PLEASED WITH THE COURSE
OF THE MTI TRIAL. THE FOREIGN MINISTER'S
DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE PRESIDENT EARLIER THIS SUMMER
AND TOTAL EXCLUSION FROM RECENT MAGHREB DIPLOMACY
HAVE ALSO RAISED QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS STATUS. DEFENSE
MINISTER BALY'S NAME IS ALSO MENTIONED AS SOMEONE WHO
MIGHT BE CHANGED TO BRING NEW BLOOD INTO THE GOT.
ONE LEADING CANDIDATE FOR A MINISTRY IS TUNISIA'S
AMBASSADOR TO BONN BEJI CAID ESSEBSI, A FORMER
MINISTER OF INTERIOR AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS, WHO HAD
BEEN IN TUNIS THIS PAST WEEK AND IS EXPECTED BACK
LATER THIS WEEK. UN PERMREP MESTIRI HAS ALSO BEEN
MENTIONED AS A CANDIDATE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS.

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POLICY CHANGES: DIALOGUE WITH HUMAN RIGHTS LEADERS
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8. BEN ALI'S ONE CLEAR POLICY INITIATIVE HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT OPENING TO THE REGIME'S CRITICS. IN HIS
INITIAL POLICY STATEMENT AS PRIME MINISTER, HE CALLED
FOR "A REINFORCEMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY BASED ON
BOURGUIBIAN PRINCIPLES OF DIRECT CONTACT, RESPONSIBLE
DIALOGUE AND CONCORD TO SERVE TUNISIA'S HIGHER
INTERESTS AND TO SAFEGUARD TUNISIA'S STABILITY AND
INVULNERABILITY." SUBSEQUENTLY, HE MET ON OCT. 6 IN
SEPARATE AND HIGHLY-PUBLICIZED MEETINGS WITH THE
LEADERS OF THE INDEPENDENT TUNISIAN HUMAN RIGHTS
LEAGUE AND GOT-CONTROLLED ASSOCIATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS
AND PUBLIC LIBERTIES. THESE GESTURES HAVE BEEN WELL
RECEIVED. OPPOSITION POLITICIANS WITH WHOM BEN ALI
MAINTAINED CONTACTS AS INTERIOR MINISTER ARE NO DOUBT
HOPING THAT THE PRIME MINISTER'S ATTENTION WILL
EVENTUALLY EXTEND TO THEM. IF SO, IT WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

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U.S. INTERESTS
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9. U.S. INTERESTS ARE WELL SERVED BY BEN ALI'S
APPOINTMENT. IN THE NEAR TERM, IT ENHANCES STABILITY
AT A TIME WHEN THE MTI CHALLENGE HAS BEEN BLUNTED,
BUT NOT RESOLVED AND WHEN TUNISIA IS MOVING TOWARD A
MORE NORMAL AND OPEN RELATIONSHIP WITH LIBYA. IN THE
LONGER TERM, SHOULD ANYTHING HAPPEN TO THE PRESIDENT,
BEN ALI WOULD BE ALMOST THE IDEAL PERSON TO MAINTAIN
ORDER IN THE TRANSITION. HE IS NOT "AMERICA'S MAN"
-- A WIDELY HELD PERCEPTION IN TUNIS BASED ON BEN
ALI'S REPUTATION FOR "LAW AND ORDER" AND HIS LIMITED
STUDY AS A SOLDIER IN THE U.S. RATHER HE IS
DISTINCTLY NON-IDEOLOGICAL. NEVERTHELESS, THE
ABSENCE OF INTELLECTUAL BAGGAGE--I.E. MZALI'S
AMBITION TO BRING TUNISIA CLOSER TO THE ARAB WORLD,
FOREIGN MINISTER MABROUK'S FRANCOPHILIA, ETC. -- IS
AN ADVANTAGE AS FAR AS WE ARE CONCERNED. ALSO IN
U.S. INTERESTS IS BEN ALI'S TENTATIVE OPENING TO THE
REGIME'S CRITICS. AT A MINIMUM, HE HAS ENDORSED THE
LEGITIMACY OF HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVITY IN TUNISIA.
WHETHER HE PROCEEDS FARTHER TOWARD POLITICAL
PLURALISM WILL DEPEND ON MANY FACTORS -- PRINCIPALLY
THE PRESIDENT'S ACQUIESCENCE OR RESISTANCE. IT IS A
TENDENCY, HOWEVER, THAT THE U.S. SHOULD ENCOURAGE.

PELLETREAU##