WAR OF WORDS BETWEEN RIYADH AND TEHRAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RIYADH 08409

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL SA IR
SUBJECT: WAR OF WORDS BETWEEN RIYADH AND TEHRAN

REF: (A)FBIS LD211453 AUG 87 AND FF. (11 SECTIONS)
- (B)FBIS LD211046 AUG 87 AND FF.
- (C)FBIS LD221904 AUG 87 AND FF.
- (D)FBIS NC200643 AUG 87
- (E)FBIS LD221557 AUG 87


1. (C - ENTIRE TEXT).


2. SUMMARY: THE WAR OF WORDS BETWEEN TEHRAN AND RIYADH
CONTINUES AT A HIGH PITCH. FOR THE IRANIANS, THE SAUDIS
ARE SERVANTS AND INSTRUMENTS FOR "WORLD ARROGANCE" OR
THE "GREAT SATAN" (I.E. THE U.S.) WHO HAVE PERPETRATED A
"DIRTY, UGLY, ODIOUS AND MONSTROUS ACT" IN MECCA AND WHO
WITH THE KUWAITIS PLOTTED TO BRING THE FORCES OF THEIR
U.S. MASTERS INTO THE GULF. FAHD AND THE AL SAUD ARE
CONDEMNED AS LIARS, OPPRESSORS AND CORRUPT RULERS,
UNWORTHY OF CONTROLLING ISLAM'S HOLIEST SITES. THESE
CHARGES ARE IN THE HIGHEST DEGREE OFFENSIVE TO THE
SAUDIS. THEY HAVE RESPONDED VIGOROUSLY, AT HOME AND
ABROAD. THE SAUDIS TAKE TWO LINES IN REGARD TO THE
IRANIANS: A RELIGIOUS APPROACH ARGUING THAT THE
IRANIANS ARE GUILTY OF "USING ISLAM TO SERVE POLITICS"
AND THAT IRANIAN METHODS AND BEHAVIOR DIRECTLY
CONTRAVENE ISLAMIC LAW; AND A POLITICAL APPROACH THAT
DEPICTS THE IRANIANS AS FANATICS, COMPULSIVE LIARS, AND
PROVOCATEURS WHO SYSTEMATICALLY SHOW CONTEMPT FOR
INTERNATIONAL RULES AND FOR ATTEMPTS TO DEAL CIVILLY
WITH THEM. IMAGES EMPHASIZED BY THE SAUDIS INCLUDE THE
RIOTS AT MAKKAH (WITH IRANIAN ATTEMPTS TO SMUGGLE
EXPLOSIVES IN 1986),THE ATTACKS ON EMBASSIES, AND NOW
THE INHUMAN TREATMENT RESULTING IN THE DEATH OF SAUDI
DIPLOMAT AL-GHAMDI. SAUDI OFFICIAL AND PRESS TREATMENT
DIFFER ONLY IN TONE: OFFICIALS TEND TO PLAY THESE
THEMES MORE IN SORROW THAN IN ANGER. THE SAUDIS MAY
TIRE OF THIS UNACCUSTOMED LEVEL OF RHETORIC, BUT NOT
UNLESS THE IRANIANS BACK OFF. THE SAUDIS SEE THEIR
POSITION AS STRONG DIPLOMATICALLY, PROPAGANDISTICALLY,
AND RELIGIOUSLY, INCLUDING IN THE AREA OF POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS ON THE IRANIANS FOR NEXT YEAR'S HAJJ. END
SUMMARY.


3. THE WAR OF WORDS BETWEEN RIYADH AND TEHRAN, WHICH
BEGAN IN EARNEST AFTER THE MAKKAH VIOLENCE OF JULY 31,
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SAUDI PRESS, ANSWERING THE
VIRULENT RHETORIC ISSUING FROM TEHRAN. THE IRANIANS
CALL FOR THE OVERTHROW OF THE SAG AND ACCUSE THE SAG
DAILY OF MASSACRING HUNDREDS OF MUSLIMS IN MAKKAH AND OF
VARIOUS OTHER RELIGIOUS AND POLITICAL "CRIMES". IRANIAN
MAJLIS SPEAKER RAFSANJANI'S FRIDAY SERMON OF AUGUST 21
(REF A) PROVIDES A COMPENDIUM OF IRAN'S PROPAGANDA
THEMES, CONSTANTLY REECHOED IN PRINT AND ELECTRONIC
MEDIA. TAKING AS HIS CENTRAL THEME "ARROGANCE VS.
MEEKNESS," RAFSANJANI DISCUSSES FIRST THE WAR AND SECOND
THE "EXISTING SITUATION IN THE REGION." HE ESTABLISHES
AS HIS FRAMEWORK THE PROPOSITION THAT "WORLD
ARROGANCE"--THE U.S., PORTRAYED AS THE "MASTERS AND
SUPPORTERS OF IRAQ AND OTHER PUPPETS--HAS BEEN FORCED BY
THE PROSPECT OF AN IMMINENT IRANIAN VICTORY TO ABANDON
ITS PRETENSE OF NEUTRALITY AND COME OUT IN THE OPEN IN
THE REGION.


4. AFTER AN EXTENSIVE DISCUSSION IN KORANIC TERMS OF
THE NATURE OF ARROGANCE AND U.S. ORCHESTRATION OF THE
WAR AND OTHER DEVELOPMENTS IN THE REGION AND THE
INEVITABLE DEFEAT OF THE U.S. AND ITS DESIGNS,
RAFSANJANI MOVES ON TO DISCUSS SAUDI ARABIA. ADDRESSING
THE U.S., HE SAYS "YOU HAVE HAD TO FORCE SAUDI ARABIA TO
COMMIT SUICIDE IN ORDER THAT YOU MAY ACHIEVE YOUR ENDS.
THE HOUSE OF SAUD WAS MUCH TOO WISE TO SOIL ITS HANDS IN
A CRIME WHICH ACCORDING TO THE IMAM'S SAYING CAN NEVER
BE CLEANSED WITH WATER OF ZAMZAM UNTIL ETERNITY. EVEN
IF MR. FAHD BATHS IN THE WELL OF ZAMZAM, NOBODY COULD
BELIEVE THAT THE (STAIN) COULD BE ERADICATED." IN
CONTEXT, THIS ATTACK APPEARS TO REFER BOTH TO THE SAUDI
ROLE IN SUPPORTING THE U.S. PRESENCE IN THE GULF AND TO
THE "MASSACRE" IN MECCA, AND RAFSANJANI GOES ON TO
DENOUNCE AT LENGTH THE U.S. PRESENCE AND TO PREDICT ITS
CERTAIN FAILURE.


5. FINALLY, RAFSANJANI TAKES UP THE "BITTER EVENT" IN
MAKKAH, DECLARING THAT "THIS WAS SUCH A DIRTY, UGLY,
ODIOUS AND MONSTROUS ACT THAT WE DO NOT THINK THAT ANY
OTHER SINISTER ELEMENT SAVE THE GREAT SATAN WOULD BE
PREPARED TO SOIL ITS HANDS IN THIS...." HE CLAIMS THAT
THROUGHOUT THE ISLAMIC WORLD MUSLIMS ARE PROTESTING:
"HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF YOUNG PEOPLE ARE NOW ANGRY....
THEY (THE SAUDIS) HAVE NOW SENSED THIS; THEY SUDDENLY
INSTRUCTED THAT 100 OF THOSE PRINCES..INDULGING
THEMSELVES IN THE SOUTH OF FRANCE--RETURN TO SAUDI
ARABIA." IN KEEPING WITH HIS THEME AND FRAMEWORK,
RAFSANJANI SAYS "THE UNITED STATES IS ITSELF
RESPONSIBLE.....THE DEFEAT OF SAUDI ARABIA WOULD MEAN
THE DEFEAT OF THE UNITED STATES, SINCE SAUDI ARABIA IS
ITS MOST IMPORTANT BASE IN THE REGION. THE UNITED
STATES HURT ITSELF AND SAUDI ARABIA BY THIS ACT."
RAFSANJANI ALSO CHARGED THAT THE SAG WAS FUNDING A
PRO-REAGAN PUBLICITY CAMPAIGN IN THE U.S. TO HELP REAGAN
RECOVER POLITICAL POPULARITY LOST BECAUSE OF EVENTS IN
THE GULF (REF. 3.). OTHER RECENT IRANIAN CHARGES
INCLUDE THE SAG'S IMPRISONING OF ITS OWN SOLDIERS FOR
REFUSING "TO SHOOT AT HAJJ PILGRIMS DURING THE MASSACRE
IN MAKKAH." THE IRANIANS ALSO HAVE CALLED FOR THE
SAUDIS TO RELINQUISH CONTROL OVER MAKKAH AND MEDINA, THE
CENTERS OF THE ANNUAL MUSLIM PILGRIMAGE AND HAVE QUOTED
HIZBOLLAH MEMBERS FROM LEBANON CALLING FOR THE OVERTHROW
OF THE SAG. SAUDI CONTACTS ALSO REPORT HEARING IRANIAN
RADIO BROADCASTS IN ARABIC DENOUNCING THE SAG FOR
RECEIVING U.S. CONGRESSMAN STEPHEN SOLARZ.


6. THE SAUDIS FOR THEIR PART HAVE LAUNCHED THEIR OWN
RHETORICAL AND DIPLOMATIC OFFENSIVES AGAINST IRAN.
THERE HAVE BEEN DAILY ARTICLES, PHOTOGRAPHS AND
EDITORIALS: FRONT PAGE DISPLAYS OF CONFISCATED WEAPONS
FROM MAKKAH (MOSTLY SCISSORS, NAIL FILES AND LARGE
KITCHEN KNIVES); ARTICLES ACCUSING THE IRANIANS OF
WORSHIPING KHOMEINI, NOT GOD; CLAIMS TO HAVE DOCUMENTED
IRANIAN INTENTIONS TO SEIZE CONTROL OF THE GRAND
MOSQUE; INTERVIEWS WITH SAUDI OFFICIALS (E.G. THE
DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC SECURITY AND HIS BOSS MINISTER OF
INTERIOR NAYIF); EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS OF IRANIAN
BARBARITY IN MECCA; AND EXTENSIVE, SOMETIMES ALMOST
LURID PLAY ON THE ATTACKS ON THE SAUDI, KUWAITI AND
OTHER EMBASSIES IN TEHRAN. THE DEATH OF SAUDI POLITICAL
ATTACHE IN TEHRAN MUSA'ID AL-GHAMDI SUPPLIED AN
IMPORTANT PART OF THE BATTLE OF RHETORIC THE PAST WEEK:
IN BOLD HEADLINES AUGUST 19 THE ARABIC NEWSPAPER
AL-SHARQ AL-AWSAT DEMANDED THAT IRAN'S RULERS BE PUT TO
TRIAL FOR AL-GHAMDI'S DEATH. THE IRANIANS RESPONDED
THAT THE SAUDIS HAD PREVENTED AL-GHAMDI FROM RECEIVING
THE MEDICAL TREATMENT HE NEEDED, WHILE THE SAUDIS SAID
THE IRANIANS HAD REFUSED TO ALLOW THEM TO MEDEVAC
AL-GHAMDI SO HE COULD GET THE NEEDED TREATMENT.


7. THE THEMES OF THE SAUDI OFFENSIVE, AS THEY HAVE
EMERGED IN STATEMENTS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED (INCLUDING IN
THE EMBASSY'S PAST THREE YEARS' HAJJ REPORTING) ARE
SEVERAL. ONE OFT-REPEATED THEME IS THAT POLITICS MUST
BE CONDUCTED TO SERVE ISLAM AND ITS PRACTICES AND RITES,
WHEREAS THE ABUSE OF ISLAM AND ITS RITES TO SERVE
POLITICAL PURPOSES IS IMPIOUS. THIS THEME IS AMPLIFIED
AND SUPPORTED BY CONSTANT ATTACKS ON IRANIAN BEHAVIOR
AND ACTIONS AS NOT ONLY UNISLAMIC BUT AS IN
CONTRAVENTION OF SPECIFIC ISLAMIC INJUNCTIONS. THIS HAS
BEEN REPEATED IN THE STATEMENT OF THE SAUDI ULEMA
(PREVIOUSLY REPORTED),IN CITATIONS OF AL-AZHAR AND
ISLAMIC AUTHORITIES OF SEVERAL NATIONS, AND IN ANGRY
COMMENTARIES AND EDITORIALS. KHOMEINI IS ANATHEMATIZED
AS THE TRUE SPIRITUAL HEIR OF THE KILLERS OF ALI AND OF
THE PROPHET'S GRANDSON HUSSEIN, A LATTER-DAY PROPONENT
OF THE ZUNJ AND OF THE QARMATI SCHISMATICS, AN EXPONENT
OF DEVIATION (BID'A),LEADING THE FAITHFUL TO
HELL-FIRE. DESCRIPTIONS OF THE MECCA EVENTS BY
JOURNALISTS AND SAUDI OFFICIALS (CF. REFS B AND C)
DEPICT THE IRANIANS AS TRYING OVER THE YEARS, IN THE
FACE OF PATIENT AND RESTRAINED SAUDI EFFORTS TO RESTRAIN
THEM, TO ENGAGE DURING THE HAJJ RITES IN EXTRANEOUS
ACTIVITIES HARMFUL TO THE PILGRIMAGE AND ENDANGERING TO
OTHER PILGRIMS, E.G. LAST YEAR'S EFFORT BY IRANIAN
PILGRIMS TO SMUGGLE A LARGE QUANTITY OF PLASTIC
EXPLOSIVES INTO THE KINGDOM. THIS YEAR'S
EVENTS--DEPICTED AS A WELL-PLANNED AND PREPARED
PROVOCATION--ARE PAINTED AS HAVING EXHAUSTED THE SAG'S
AND THE ISLAMIC WORLD'S PATIENCE AND FORCED THE SAG AND
OTHER MUSLIMS TO THINK SERIOUSLY ABOUT HOW TO CONTROL
IRAN'S INCORRIGIBLE AND DANGEROUS TROUBLEMAKING. IRAN'S
FANATICAL AND STUBBORN INSISTENCE ON SUCH BEHAVIOR ON
THE PILGRIMAGE IS ASSOCIATED WITH ITS EQUALLY STUBBORN
INSISTENCE ON CONTINUING A WAR THAT ALL RESPONSIBLE
PARTIES KNOW MUST END AND THAT IS A MAJOR SOURCE OF HARM
TO THE ISLAMIC WORLD.


8. IRANIAN INTRANSIGENCE, DESTRUCTIVENESS AND UNISLAMIC
BEHAVIOR, IN BOTH THE MECCA EVENTS AND THE GULF WAR,
ALSO FORM THE THEMES OF THE EMERGING SAUDI DIPLOMATIC
OFFENSIVE. THROUGHOUT THE ARAB AND ISLAMIC WORLDS IN
PARTICULAR, THE SAUDIS APPEAR TO HAVE ENGAGED IN A
DELUGE OF INFORMATION ACTIVITY (NOTABLY DISTRIBUTION OF
VIDEOTAPES) AND ARM-TWISTING, AT TIMES MAKING A
SUPPORTIVE REACTION WITH REGARD TO THE MECCA RIOTS A
TOUCHSTONE OF BILATERAL RELATIONS. THIS EFFORT IS
DIRECTED AT TWO ENDS: TO ISOLATE IRAN IN THE ISLAMIC
WORLD (AND CREATE AT LEAST THE THREAT OF SEVERE
RESTRICTIONS ON IRANIAN PARTICIPATION IN THE PILGIMAGE),
AND TO GENERATE GREATER SUPPORT FOR UNSC AND OTHER
ACTIVITIES TO PRESSURE IRAN TO END THE GULF WAR.


9. WHILE FONMIN SAUD IN TUNIS DID NOT, IN OUR
UNDERSTANDING, "CALL FOR" THE ARABS TO BREAK RELATIONS
WITH IRAN, IT IS CLEAR FROM HIS PUBLIC STATEMENTS BEFORE
AND DURING THE ARAB LEAGUE MINISTERIAL THAT THIS IS AN
EVENTUALITY THAT SAUD DID WANT TO RAISE AND WANTS IRAN
TO BEGIN CONTEMPLATING. IN HIS ARRIVAL STATEMENT SAUD
SPECIFICALLY AVERRED THAT IRAN'S "ACTIONS AGAINST THE
EMBASSIES OF THE KINGDOM AND KUWAIT AND OTHER EMBASSIES
CONFIRMS THAT THIS COUNTRY DOES NOT RECOGNIZE THE RULES
AND PRINCIPLES OF DIPLOMATIC ACTION." (REF E). WHILE
THE ROLE SAUD PLAYED IN THE MEETING WAS AGGRESSIVE (AND
SAUDI DIPLOMACY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THIS VEIN),WE
BELIEVE THE SAUDI GOAL WAS NOT TO ACHIEVE A BREAK IN
ARAB RELATIONS WITH IRAN BUT TO CREATE THE THREAT. (THE
SAUDIS ARE REALISTS AND UNDERSTAND THE LINEUP OF THE
PLAYERS.) THE COMBINATION OF DISCUSSING A HARSH DRAFT
RESOLUTION, ADOPTING A MILDER ONE, AND DECIDING TO
RECONVENE IN A MONTH GENERATES PRESSURE ON BOTH SYRIA
AND IRAN. IT ALSO PROVIDES SYRIA A JUSTIFICATION FOR
ACCEPTING THE RESOLUTION THAT WAS ACTUALLY PASSED, WHICH
IN FACT APPEARS TO GIVE THE SAUDIS WHAT THEY WANTED FROM
THIS MEETING: SUPPORT FOR ENFORCEMENT OF UNSC RES. 598,
AND FOR SAUDI ARABIA AND KUWAIT.


10. COMMENT: THE SAUDI PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN IS
UNPRECEDENTED IN ITS EXPLICTNESS, ITS INTENSITY AND ITS
DURATION. SINCE THE VIOLENT CLASHES IN MAKKAH BETWEEN
IRANIAN PILGRIMS AND SAG SECURITY FORCES, IRAN HAS YET
TO BE ABSENT FROM THE FRONT PAGE HEADLINES OF THE SAUDI
PRESS. SAUDI DIPLOMACY, TOO, IS UNACCUSTOMEDLY
HIGH-PROFILE AND SHOWS SIGNS OF CONTINUING TO BE SO.
WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SAG MAY TIRE OF ALL THIS
ACTIVITY AND CONFRONTATION, WE DOUBT THAT THIS WILL
HAPPEN UNLESS THE IRANIANS CHANGE COURSE AND OFFER THE
SAG AMPLE SPACE AND EXCUSE TO EASE UP. THE PROVOCATIONS
AND THE STAKES, IN THE SAG PERSPECTIVE, HAVE BEEN AND
ARE UNUSUALLY GRAVE. THE CHALLENGE TO SAUDI
CUSTODIANSHIP OF THE SHRINES AT MECCA AND MEDINA IS FAR
TOO SERIOUS AN ISSUE FOR THE SAG TO RISK LOSING BY
DEFAULT IN ISLAMIC OPINION. FURTHER, SAG CONCERN AT THE
THREAT POSED BY THE GULF WAR HAS STEADILY GROWN, AND
WITH IT SAUDI DETERMINATION TO PUSH HARD FOR AN END TO
THE WAR. THE SAG SEES IN THE MECCA EVENTS AN
OPPORTUNITY FURTHER TO ISOLATE IRAN AND TO CREATE
GREATER INTERNATIONAL MOMENTUM FOR ACTION BY THE
SECURITY COUNCIL TO IMPOSE SANCTIONS ON IRAN.


11. ON THE HOME FRONT THE SAG SEES THE POSSIBILITY OF
PUTTING IRAN IN THE POSITION OF WEAKENED DEMANDEUR WITH
REGARD TO FUTURE HAJJ ARRANGEMENTS. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OR ALL SAUDI DIPLOMATS MAY BE
WITHDRAWN FROM TEHRAN AND HINTS ABROAD OF SOME FORM OF
INTERNATIONAL ISLAMIC APPROVAL FOR THE SAUDIS TO
RESTRICT THE RIGHT OF TROUBLEMAKERS TO MAKE THE HAJJ,
THE SAUDIS BELIEVE THE IRANIANS WILL ONE DAY NOTE THAT
THEY MAY FACE THE CHOICE OF CONCILIATING THE SAG OR
BEING UNABLE, WHETHER FOR FORMAL OR LOGISTICAL REASONS,
TO SEND MORE THAN A HANDFUL OF PILGRIMS NEXT YEAR. THUS
THE SAUDIS SEE THEIR POSITION VIS-A-VIS THE IRANIANS AS
ESPECIALLY STRONG AT PRESENT, AND ARE SHOWING EVERY SIGN
OF DETERMINATION TO PRESS THEIR ADVANTAGE. END
COMMENT.

HORAN