INCREASE IN SIKH TERRORISM LIKELY: NO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 19406

LIMITED OFFICIAL USE

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (TEXT--PARAS 4 AND 5)

USCINCPAC AND USCINCCENT FOR POLADS

E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: PTER PGOV IN
SUBJECT: INCREASE IN SIKH TERRORISM LIKELY: NO
MODERATION IN SIGHT

REF: NEW DELHI 17853


1. SUMMARY: ELEVEN PEOPLE WERE KILLED IN PUNJAB
STATE ON AUGUST 6 IN CONTINUING SECTARIAN STRIFE.
DELHI POLICE ARE GEARING UP TO MEET THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN TERRORIST ACTIVITY BEFORE THE INDEPENDENCE
DAY CELEBRATIONS ON AUGUST 15. ACTING JATHEDAR
DARSHAN SINGH RAGI'S CONVENTION, HELD AUGUST 4,
PROVIDED A FORUM FOR EXTREME AND MODERATE POINTS OF
VIEW WITH NO OBVIOUS MEETING OF MINDS. END SUMMARY


2. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS ELEVEN PEOPLE--NINE OF
WHOM WERE HINDUS--WERE KILLED IN TERRORIST RELATED
VIOLENCE IN PUNJAB ON AUGUST 6. TWO ALLEGED
TERRORISTS WERE KILLED BY SECURITY FORCES WHO
RECOVERED A US MADE AUTOMATIC WEAPON FROM ONE OF THE
BODIES. ALMOST ALL THE VIOLENT ACTIVITY TOOK PLACE IN
AMRITSAR DISTRICT. A COMMUNIST PARTY OF INDIA
ACTIVIST, AND GENERAL SECRETARY OF PARA MEDICAL
EMPLOYEES, WAS SHOT BY THREE TERRORISTS. THE KILLERS,
WHO LEFT A NOTE CLAIMING TO BE FROM THE RANJIT SINGH
RANA GROUP, ESCAPED ON THE VICTIM'S SCOOTER.


3. ACCORDING TO NEWSPAPER REPORTS, THE HOME MINISTRY
"HAS DEFINITE INFORMATION THAT THE EXTREMISTS ARE
PLOTTING DO SOMETHING VERY IMPRESSIVE" IN THE WEEK
LEADING UP TO INDEPENDENCE DAY. OTHER SOURCES REPORT
THAT THE TERRORISTS WILL PROBABLY STRIKE ON AUGUST 15
FOR MAXIMUM ALL-INDIA ATTENTION. DELHI POLICE,
REELING FROM THEIR FAILURE TO STOP RECENT TERRORIST
ATTACKS IN THE POSH SOUTH DELHI HOUSING COLONIES, ARE
STEPPING UP THEIR ATTEMPTS TO CONTROL POSSIBLE
TERRORIST ENTRY TO THE CITY. ALL ENTRY POINTS TO THE
CITY ARE NOW GUARDED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE POLICE
HAVE REPORTEDLY IMPROVED THEIR COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS.
THERE APPEARS TO BE NO CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE THAT
TERRORISTS WOULD NECESSARILY STRIKE IN DELHI, ALTHOUGH
THAT WOULD GIVE THEM THE PUBLICITY THEY DESIRE. BOTH
HARYANA AND PUNJAB GOVERNMENTS HAVE INTENSIFIED THEIR
SECURITY MECHANISMS.


4. ACTING JATHEDAR DARSHAN SINGH RAGI CONTINUED HIS
LONE CAMPAIGN FOR A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN THE
MILITANTS AND MODERATES WITH A SIKH CONVENTION ON
AUGUST 4. (SEE REFTEL) THE CONVENTION WAS A NOISY
AFFAIR WITH LITTLE CONGRUENCE OF VIEWS BETWEEN THE
MODERATES AND MILITANTS AND AN ABUNDANCE OF RADICALISM
ON THE PART OF THE MILITANTS. ALTHOUGH MANY
PARTICIPANTS OF THE CONVENTION CLEARLY DEMANDED NO
LESS THAN KHALISTAN, THE CONVENTION RESOLUTION CALLED
FOR THE SIKHS TO BE GIVEN AN "AREA AND POLITICAL SETUP
IN NORTH INDIA WHERE SIKHS CAN EXPERIENCE THE GLOW OF
FREEDOM." ACCORDING TO RAGI, THE DEMAND WAS A SPINOFF
FROM AN ASSURANCE GIVEN TO THE SIKHS BY JAWAHARLAL
NEHRU IN 1946. EXPANDING ON THE THEME, THE HIGH
PRIEST EXPLAINED THAT THE PROPOSED "SET-UP" WOULD
RESULT IN GREATER AUTONOMY FOR THE STATE. A SIKH
CLAIMING TO REPRESENT SIKHS LIVING OUTSIDE PUNJAB SAID
THAT SIKH DEMANDS REPRESENTED DEMANDS OF ALL INDIAN
STATES AND URGED THE HIGH PRIESTS TO START A
NATIONWIDE MOVEMENT IN SUPPORT OF INCREASED AUTONOMY.


5. MODERATE SPEAKERS CALLED FOR A NON-VIOLENT
STRUGGLE TO ACHIEVE THE AIMS OF THE SIKHS AND MOST
SPEAKERS DEMANDED IMMEDIATE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE
ANANDAPUR SAHIB RESOLUTION WHICH CALLED FOR GREATER
AUTONOMY IN THE STATES. THE MILITANTS, AS WAS
EXPECTED, DEMANDED THE FORMATION OF KHALISTAN AND
DECLARED THAT THE GUN WAS THE ONLY ANSWER FOR THE
SIKHS. THE MILITANT GROUPS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
BABBAR KHALSA, ALL QUESTIONED THE LEADERSHIP OF THE
HIGH PRIESTS BUT MADE NO MOVES TO REPLACE THEM. IN
RAGI'S CONCLUDING STATEMENT HE AGREED WITH THE
MILITANTS THAT THEY COULD NOT ACHIEVE THEIR AIMS
WITHOUT WEAPONS. BUT, THE HIGH PRIEST NOTED, WEAPONS
MUST CHANGE WITH THE TIMES AND THE TIMES NO LONGER
CALLED FOR VIOLENT STRUGGLE. THE TIME HAD COME, RAGI
PLEADED, "FOR UNITY BETWEEN THOSE WHO FAVORED THE GUN
AND THOSE WHO FAVORED NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT."


6. THE CONVENTION WAS ATTENDED BY SOME FIVE HUNDRED
PARTICIPANTS ALL OF WHOM PASSED THROUGH STRICT POLICE
SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS BEFORE ENTERING THE GOLDEN
TEMPLE. MODERATE POLITICIANS, INCLUDING
REPRESENTATIVES OF THE AKALI DAL (L),WERE NOT INVITED
TO ATTEND THE CONVENTION. PARTICIPANTS DID INCLUDE
REPRESENTATIVES FROM THE "UNIFIED" AKALI DAL, THE
BABBAR KHALSA, BOTH THE MANJIT SINGH AND GURJIT SINGH
FACTIONS OF THE ALL INDIA SIKH STUDENTS FEDERATION,
THE BHINDRANWALE TIGERS FORCE OF KHALISTAN, THE
KHALISTAN COMMANDO FORCE, THE KHALISTAN LIBERATION
FORCE, THE SIKH INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL AND THE DALIT
FRONT. INDIVIDUALS LAWYERS, INTELLECTUALS AND RETIRED
MILITARY ALSO ATTENDED.


7. COMMENT: THE CONTINUING VIOLENCE AND THE FLAT
RESULT OF DARSHAN SINGH RAGI'S ATTEMPTS TO FORGE
MILITANT-MODERATE UNITY INDICATE THAT THERE IS NO
IMMEDIATE PROGRESS ON THE SIKH'S SIDE OF THE PUNJAB
DILEMMA. THE SPEECHES AT THE SIKH CONVENTION SHOW THE
DEEP DIFFERENCES THAT REMAIN BETWEEN THE TWO GROUPS.
INDEED, THE FINAL DECLARATION IS AN OBVIOUS ATTEMPT TO
PAPER OVER THESE DIVISIONS. DARSHAN SINGH RAGI'S
ATTEMPT WAS WELL RECEIVED BY POLITICAL OBSERVERS AND
THE HIGH PRIEST REMAINS THE BEST HOPE FOR SOME
SOLUTION.


STREEB