Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
87MADRAS3155
1987-11-02 11:35:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Chennai
Cable title:  

N. RAM: LTTE CRUSHED, MAHATHAYA DEAD?

Tags:  PREL CE INF 
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O P 021135Z NOV 87
FM AMCONSUL MADRAS
TO AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY COLOMBO IMMEDIATE
INFO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7541
AMCONSUL BOMBAY
AMCONSUL CALCUTTA
C O N F I D E N T I A L MADRAS 3155 


E. O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL CE INF
SUBJECT: N. RAM: LTTE CRUSHED, MAHATHAYA DEAD?

C O N F I D E N T I A L MADRAS 3155


E. O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL CE INF
SUBJECT: N. RAM: LTTE CRUSHED, MAHATHAYA DEAD?


1. (C) ENTIRE TEXT.


2. "THE HINDU" ASSOCIATE EDITOR N. RAM JUST RETURNED
FROM A VISIT TO COLOMBO, WHERE HE INTERVIEWED JAYAWARDENE
AND SPOKE TO MEMBERS OF IPKF, JOURANLISTS AND OTHERS. HE
OFFERED THESE THOUGHTS TO CG AND POLECON OFF AT LUNCH
NOVEMBER 2.:


3. ACCORDING TO JAYAWARDENE AND IPKF SOURCES, THE LTTE
HAS BEEN CRUSHED AND IS ON THE RUN. BASED ON LTTE
INTERCEPTS, RAM IS ALMOST SURE THAT MAHATHAYA (THE LTTE
NO. 2) WAS KILLED IN THE ASSULT ON CHAVAKACHERI. INTERCEPTS
SAID THAT SOMEONE AT THE VERY TOP, BUT NOT PRABHAKARAN,
WAS KILLED. RAM BELIEVES THAT THIS COULD ONLY DESCRIBE
MAHATHAYA. LOCAL PRESS HAS REPORTED UNCONFIRMED RUMORS
OF HIS DEATH. LTTE'S YOGI HAD TOLD RAM EARLIER THAT
MAHATHAYA WAS LTTE'S CANDIDATE FOR CHIEF MINISTER OF THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PROVINCE. RAM SAID THAT THE INDIAN
MILITARY ALSO FOUND HIM TO BE SOMEONE WITH WHOM THEY COULD
DEAL. HIS DEATH, UNLIKE PRABHAKARNA'S, WOULD BE A BLOW
TO A FUTURE NEGOTIATIONS PROCESS.


4. PRABHAKARAN WAS "CERTAINLY" BEEN WOUNDED IN A
SEPARATE INCIDENT, PROBABLY WHEN INDIAN PARATROOPERS
LANDED NEAR HIS HEADWUARTERS. RAM ALSO FINDS IT VERY
CURIOUS THAT PRABHAKARAN'S NAME HAS NOT BEEN USED AT
ALL BY THE LTTE RECENTLY -"HE'S COMPLETELY OUT OF SIGHT."


5. RAM ESTIMATES THAT 1,000 LTTE FIGHTERS HAVE BEEN
KILLED, INCLUDING 700 IN THE ASSAULT ON CHAVAKACHERI ALONE.


6. RAM'S BASIC VIEW OF RECENT EVENTS IN JAFFNA IS MORE
POSITIVE (FROM AN INDIAN PERSPECTIVE) THAN WE HAVE HEARD
FROM ANY OTHER KNOWLEDGABLE SOUCE HERE. IT MUST BE
CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE OF HIS RECENT TRIP TO
COLOMBO AND HIS EARLIER PRE-AGREEMENT CONCERN FOR THE LTTE.
SUBSTANTIAL CROSS CURRENTS IN TAMIL ELITE OPINION PREVENT
US FROM DISCERNING ANY "LINE" DOMINANT HERE. NO ONE HAS
MUCH REAL SYMPATHY FOR THE LTTE; KARUNANIDI AND THE DMK
SUPPORT THEM FOR OPPORTUNISTIC REASONS, AND EVEN MGR'S
RETURN (BEING COVERED SEPTEL) HAS NOT YET CLARIFIED AIADMK
THINKING ON THE SUBJECT.


7. ONE THING RAM WAS CLEAR ON: THE GOI WILL NOT BE
EASILY LED INTO ANY KIND OF COMPROMISE. GURKHA TROOPS ARE
SURROUNDING THE NALLUR TEMPLE NEAR JAFFNA, AND THERE
WILL BE NO STAND-DOWN, SUSPENSION OF OPERATIONS, OR
CEASE FIRE UNTIL THE LTTE LOUDLY AND PUBLICLY AGREES TO
START HANDING OVER ARMS AND ABIDE BY THE JULY 29 AGREEMENT.
RAM CONFIRMED THE EARLIER REPORTED "NECKLACE KILLINGS"
OF FIVE INDIAN SOLDIERS AND THE BRUNING TO DEATH OF 13
OTHERS. HE HASTENED TO ADD THAT NONE OF THIS HAS BEEN
CONFIRMED TO THE PRESS BECUASE THE GOI WANTED TO KEEP
EMOTIONS DOWN. BUT THE ARMY KNOWS, AND IT IS PRETTY
BLOODY-MINDED RIGHT NOW. PRABHAKARAN OR ANY OTHER
LEADERSHIP FIGURE WOULD HAVE TO "WAVE A VERY WHITE
FLAG" TO SURVIVE HIS/THEIR OWN SURRENDER.


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