SYRIA AND NEWS OF A "NEW AND GRAVE MOVE BY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 03703

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PTER TU SY
SUBJECT: SYRIA AND NEWS OF A "NEW AND GRAVE MOVE BY
THE PKK"

REF: STATE 208025


1. SECRET ENTIRE TEXT


2. SUMMARY: REFTEL IS DEAD RIGHT TO SEEK ALL THE
INFORMATION WE CAN GET ON A PKK ATTACK ON U.S. FACILITIES
IN TURKEY. IF WE FIND SYRIA IS INVOLVED, WE SHOULD
PROTEST HERE STRONGLY -- BARRING TURKISH OBJECTIONS TO
SUCH A U.S. MOVE. BUT WE SEE SYRIA AS LARGELY -- IF NOT
ENTIRELY -- ABANDONING TERRORISM FOR A VARIETY OF
REASONS. END SUMMARY.


3. PKK ATTACKS SUCH AS THE ONE ALLEGED IN THE TURKISH
PRESS ACCOUNT MENTIONED IN REFTEL MUST BE PURSUED BUT WE
NO LONGER REFLEXIVELY ASSUME THAT SYRIA PROMOTED OR
CONDONED THE ATTACK. THE PKK HAS NOT BEEN TOTALLY
UPROOTED HERE LIKE ABU NIDAL, BUT IT HAS BEEN RESTRICTED.
IT WON'T BE COMPLETELY UPROOTED, IN OUR VIEW. KURDS FORM
ONE OF THE IMPORTANT MINORITIES OF SYRIA AND THE RULING
ALAWIS HAVE REACHED OUT TO THEM -- AS TO MINORITY
CHRISTIANS, DRUZE AND ISMAILIS -- TO FORM THE COALITION
WHICH IS NEEDED TO OFFSET THE GREAT MAJORITY OF SYRIANS,
WHO ARE SUNNI ARABS, THE TRADITIONAL RULING CLASS. KURDS
ARE THE LEAST PROMINENT PART OF THE COALITION, PARTLY
BECAUSE THEY ARE SUNNI, AND ARE IN NO WAY IN A POSITION T
ASSERT A RIGHT TO CROSS-BORDER OPERATIONS WHICH COMPLICAT
SYRIAN RELATIONS WITH A RESURGENT TURKEY.


4. WE CONTINUE TO DOUBT THAT SYRIA IS ENCOURAGING, RATHE
THAN DISCOURAGING, ANY SUCH ATTACKS. SYRIA HAS CLAMPED
DOWN ON ASALA -- THE ARMENIAN BISHOP HERE SAYS IT HAS
BEEN THROWN OUT -- AND HAS MOVED PKK CAMPS OUT OF THE
COUNTRY. THE REASONS ARE MANY: BLOWN OPERATIONS,
EUPHRATES WATER, A SKILLFUL TURKISH DIPLOMACY WHICH
COMBINES THE CARROT WITH THE STICK. OPERATIONS CONTINUE,
BUT IRAQI AND IRANIAN SUPPORT FOR SUCH OPERATIONS -- TO
EMBARRASS SYRIA AND EMBROIL IT WITH TURKEY -- REMAIN
PLAUSIBLE EXPLANATIONS FOR US. BUT WE MUST FOLLOW UP
SUCH GOSSAMER POSSIBILITIES AS REFTEL - BUT - ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE A LEGITIMATE INTEREST IN RAISING KURDISH TERRORISM
AGAINST U.S. FACILITIES, THE TURKS WILL NOT RPT NOT
WELCOME OUR DOING SO WITH SYRIANS IN THE CASE OF PKK.
THE TURKS PROBABLY WILL WANT US NOT TO GET INVOLVED AT
ALL, IN FACT -- EVEN IF IT IS PROVED THAT THE ALLEGED PKK
ATTACKERS CAME FROM SYRIA.


5. UNDERGIRDING THIS NOW IS OUR FEELING THAT A BROAD
AND DISPARATE NUMBER OF DEVELOPMENTS -- WITH THE WEST,
TURKEY, MODERATE ARABS, IRAQ, IRAN, AND THE DOMESTIC
ECONOMY HAVE FORCED A TURN-AROUND HERE ON TERRORISM. EVE
SYRIA'S MUCH PUBLICIZED SUPPORT FOR ITS OWN SUICIDE
BOMBERS IN SOUTH LEBANON HAS ALL BUT HALTED IN THE PAST
YEAR. ASAD IS WEAK AND WANTS NO PROBLEMS WITH ISRAEL.
WE DON'T EXPECT ATTACKS ON ISRAELI TARGETS TO BE
DISCARDED ENTIRELY; AFTER ALL, SMALL SCALE, DENIABLE
ATTACKS ARE THE WEAPON OF THE WEAK. IN ADDITION, ASAD
BELIEVES HE HAS EVERY RIGHT TO SUPPORT "NATIONAL
RESISTANCE" INSIDE ISRAELI-OCCUPIED TERRITORY AGAINST
CERTAIN TARGETS. (THIS IS A PROBLEM FOR US. THE ISRAELI
DEFINITION OF "TERRORISM" ON THE WEST BANK AND SOUTHERN
LEBANON APPEARS DIFFERENT FROM OURS -- UNDERSTANDABLY,
SINCE WE CHAMPION FOES OF OCCUPATION IN AFGHANISTAN, NIC-
ARAGUA, ANGOLA, CAMBODIA, AND ELSEWHERE, WHILE THE
ISRAELIS ARE OCCUPIERS WITH NO LARGE STAKE BEYOND THEIR
BORDER.) THUS, ASAD MAY TOSS MOST PALESTINIANS OUT OF
DAMASCUS, BUT HE WILL HOLD OUT A REMNANT TO FRONT FOR
HIS TOTTERING POLICY OF "ARMED CONFRONTATION" WITH ISRAEL
HE SIMILARLY WANTS TO USE HIZBALLAHIS AGAINST ISRAEL'S
OCCUPATION AND WON'T HESITATE, WE THINK, TO TAKE ON
CERTAIN LEBANESE GROUPS WHICH PUSH HIM TOO FAR; THE
LEBANESE ARE WEAKER THAN SYRIA, AND USE TERRORISM EVERY
DAY THEMSELVES. WITNESS KARAMI, AND MANY OTHERS OF EVERY
CONFESSION. ANYWAY, SYRIA ISN'T OUT OF THE TERRORISM
BUSINESS.


6. ONLY TIME WILL TELL WHETHER ASAD HAS REDUCED
TERRORISM AS MUCH AS WE THINK. "YOU WON'T BELIEVE ME,"
SHRUGGED ASAD, AFTER TELLING ONE AMERICAN VISITOR THAT
THERE WOULD BE NO TERRORIST OPERATION RUN OUT OF
SYRIA IN THE FUTURE, "BUT IT IS USEFUL TO SAY SO, TO
CLOSE THE DOSSIER." WE MUST BE ALERT TO EVERY
INCIDENT--BUT NOT IGNORE THE SIGNS OF A BASIC CHANGE.


RANSOM