SYRIAN EXPULSION OF THE ABU NIDAL ORGANIZATION

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 03087

TERREP EXCLUSIVE

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PTER PREL SY US LE
SUBJECT: SYRIAN EXPULSION OF THE ABU NIDAL ORGANIZATION

REF: A) DAMASCUS 3020, B) DAMASCUS 3026


1. SECRET - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. SUMMARY: EVERY SOURCE WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FOLLOW
UP WITH CONCERNING ABU NIDAL'S EXPULSION FROM SYRIA
HAS CONFIRMED THE STORY IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. NO ONE,
HOWEVER, CAN SAY AUTHORITATIVELY THAT THE SYRIAN BAN ON
THE ANO HAS EXTENDED TO THE CAMPS IN THE BIQA' VALLEY.
END SUMMARY.


3. POST HAS DONE EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO FOLLOW UP
INITIAL REPORTS THAT THE SYRIAN GOVERNMENT HAS EXPELLED
THE ABU NIDAL ORGANIZATION FROM ITS TERRITORY. EVERY
SOURCE WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CONTACT IN THE PAST TWO DAYS
HAS SAID THE SAME THING: THE ANO IS GONE.


4. POLOFF SPOKE WITH LEBANESE BA'TH PARTY LEADER QANSUH
JUNE 7 WHO STATED UNEQUIVOCALLY THAT THE SYRIANS HAVE
EXPELLED THE ANO. QANSUH SAID QADHAFI HAD SENT A SENIOR
EMISSARY TO GET THE EXPULSION ORDER REVERSED OR DELAYED,
BUT ASAD HAD REJECTED THE APPEAL. MICHEL SAMAHA TOLD
POLOFF THE SAME DAY THAT HE HAD JUST COME FROM MEETINGS
WITH KHADDAM, SHARA', AND KHOULI, ALL OF WHOM CONFIRMED
THE ANO HAD BEEN OUSTED, ADDING THAT THIS WAS A POLITICAL
DECISION TAKEN "A MONTH AGO" BUT EXECUTED AT A MOMENT
(JUST BEFORE THE VENICE SUMMIT) TO MAXIMIZE ITS
PROPAGANDA VALUE IN THE WEST.


5. AUSTRALIAN EMBASSY OFFICERS HAVE TALKED WITH PNSF
CHAIRMAN KHALID AL-FAHOUM, PNSF INDEPENDENT SHAHABI, AND
A MEMBER OF THE PFLP POLITBURO. ALL THREE PALESTINIAN
SOURCES TOLD THE AUSTRALIANS PRACTICALLY THE SAME THING:
ABU NIDAL IS OUT. THE ONE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE THREE
PALESTINIANS WAS THAT FAHOUM INDICATED THAT A FEW ANO
MEMBERS REMAIN IN DAMASCUS TAKING CARE OF LAST MINUTE
TRANSPORTATION DETAILS, BUT THAT THEY TOO WILL BE GONE BY
FRIDAY, JUNE 15. THE OTHER SOURCES SAID THOSE ANO MEMBERS
NOT HOLDING SYRIAN DOCUMENTATION WERE ALREADY GONE.
THE AUSTRALIANS' PALESTINIAN CONTACTS ELABORATED ON THE
QUESTION OF "SYRIAN DOCUMENTATION." THOSE ANO MEMBERS
WHO HOLD THE PALESTINIAN IDENTITY DOCUMENTS NORMALLY
ISSUED BY THE SYRIAN GOVERNMENT TO PALESTINIANS ARE
PERMITTED TO STAY. THESE ARE BASICALLY REFUGEES WHO
ARRIVED IN SYRIA IN 1948 AND THEIR CHILDREN WHO WERE BORN
IN SYRIA. PERMISSION TO STAY APPARENTLY DOES NOT EXTEND
TO ANO MEMBERS WHO HAVE RECEIVED SYRIAN PASSPORTS IN THE
COURSE OF THEIR ANO "DUTIES." THOSE ANO MEMBERS WHO DO
REMAIN ARE ABSOLUTELY PROHIBITED FROM ENGAGING IN ANO
ACTIVITIES. THEY WILL LIKELY BE CLOSELY WATCHED AND, IF
ARRESTED FOR ANY VIOLATIONS, WILL BE TREATED AS ORDINARY
SYRIAN CITIZENS. THESE PALESTINIAN SOURCES, FINALLY,
SUGGEST THE REASONS FOR THE SARG'S DECISION RELATE TO THE
DESIRE TO RELIEVE WESTERN PRESSURES REGARDING TERRORISM
AS WELL AS REFLECT SYRIAN WRATH OVER ABU NIDAL'S MEETING
WITH FATAH LEADERS IN ALGIERS.


6. YUGOSLAV DCM REPORTED THAT TWO "RESPONSIBLE"
PALESTINIAN OFFICIALS (WHOM HE OTHERWISE DECLINED TO
IDENTIFY),HAVE ALSO INSISTED THE ANO HAS LEFT SYRIA.
LIKE THE AUSTRALIANS' SOURCES, THE YUGOSLAV'S CONTACTS
SAY THAT MOST HAVE GONE DIRECTLY TO LIBYA, WITH A FEW TO
ALGIERS. THE YUGOSLAV TOLD US THAT HIS SOURCES SAY THE
REAL REASON FOR THE SARG'S IMMEDIATE WRATH WAS THAT SYRIA
INTELLIGENCE HAD "CAUGHT" ANO OPERATIVES "SPYING" ON
SYRIA.


7. THE BRITISH EMBASSY HAS ALSO TOLD US THAT RELIABLE
PALESTINIAN CONTACTS HAVE CONFIRMED THE ANO'S OUSTER AND
DEPARTURE.


8. COMMENT: EVERY SIGN HERE IS THAT THE SYRIAN GOVERN-
MENT FINALLY HAS TAKEN THE "DIFFICULT STEP" TO ELIMINATE
THE ANO PRESENCE IN DAMASCUS. CERTAINLY A SIGNIFICANT
MOTIVATION HAS BEEN THE DESIRE AND NEED TO ALLEVIATE
WESTERN PRESSURES AND SANCTIONS. SEVERAL SYRIAN AND
LEBANESE CONTACTS HAVE ALL BUT PLEADED THAT AMERICA MUST
NOW RESPOND TO ASAD'S "GESTURE" BY RETURNING THE U.S.
AMBASSADOR. THE PALESTINIANS, ON THE OTHER HAND, WHILE
ACKNOWLEDGING THE IMPORTANCE OF WESTERN PRESSURES, INSIST
THAT DAMASCUS HAD COMPELLING REASONS OF ITS OWN FOR
SHUTTING DOWN ABU NIDAL WHICH WILL STAND UP TO ARAB
SCRUTINY. THEY POINT OUT, TOO, THAT THE BULK OF THE ANO
OPERATIONS HAD ALREADY BEEN SHIFTED OUT OF SYRIA OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS TO ESCAPE INCREASINGLY ONEROUS
SYRIAN SUPERVISION AND RESTRICTIONS AND IN THE FACE OF
SYRIA'S UNRELENTING PRESSURE ON ALL THE PALESTINIANS,
INCLUDING THE ANO, IN THE CAMPS' WAR.


9. COMMENT CONTINUED: WE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO COME UP
WITH CONFIRMABLE EVIDENCE THAT THE SYRIAN DECISION TO
SEVER TIES WITH ABU NIDAL HAS EXTENDED TO THE TRAINING
CAMPS IN THE SYRIAN OCCUPIED BIQA' VALLEY. AT THE SAME
TIME, NO ONE SAYS THEY ARE STILL IN OPERATION EITHER.
A "SOMETIMES RELIABLE" JOURNALIST INSISTS THAT THE BIQA'
CAMPS HAVE BEEN CLOSED FOR SOME TIME, AND OFFERED TO
ARRANGE FOR DAMASCUS POLOFF TO VISIT THE CAMPS WITH
SYRIAN MILITARY ESCORT. SAMAHA VENTURED WHAT HE ADMITTED
WAS A GUESS THAT THEY HAD BEEN OR WOULD BE CLOSED. NO
ONE ELSE CLAIMS TO KNOW. THE YUGOSLAV DCM HAS TOLD US
THAT HE WAS UNABLE TO GET INFORMATION TO DATE FROM HIS
PALESTINIAN CONTACTS, BUT WAS CERTAIN HE WOULD HAVE
SOMETHING "IN A WEEK OR SO." POST WILL KEEP TRYING.


LINO