THE LTTE FACES PROBLEMS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 04526

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PINS PREL CE IN PHUM
SUBJECT: THE LTTE FACES PROBLEMS


1. CONFIDENTIAL--ENTIRE TEXT.


2. WE HAVE HEARD FROM A VARIETY OF RELIABLE SOURCES
THAT THE LTTE HAD BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED BY
OPERATION LIBERATION BEGUN IN LATE MAY AND THAT IT
HAD YET TO RECOUP ITS LOSSES. PERHAPS THE MOST
DETAILED AND CREDIBLE REPORT CAME FROM LOUIS PAUL,
A SENIOR EDITOR OF THE SATURDAY REVIEW, A RESPECTED
JAFFNA FORTNIGHTLY WHICH MAINTAINS VERY GOOD TIES
WITH THE LTTE. DCM AND POLCOUNS MET WITH PAUL, WHO
WAS IN COLOMBO FOR A FEW DAYS, ON JULY 7.

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THE EFFECT OF THE OFFENSIVE
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3. PAUL SAID THAT OPERATION LIBERATION WAS A REAL
TURNING POINT IN THE INSURGENCY SINCE IT RESULTED
IN THE ALIENATION FROM THE LTTE OF A MAJORITY OF
THE JAFFNA CIVILIAN POPULATION. UNTIL THAT POINT,
MOST JAFFNA CITIZENS--INCLUDING THOSE WHO DID NOT
AGREE WITH LTTE AIMS OR METHODS--LOOKED UPON THE
TIGERS AS PROTECTORS WHO SHIELDED THE CIVILIANS FROM
THE GSL "ARMY OF OCCUPATION." THE TIGERS IN MANY
INSTANCES IN MAY/JUNE ABROGATED THIS ROLE: NOT
ONLY DID THEY NOT PROTECT THE PEOPLE BUT SOMETIMES
EVEN FAILED (BEFORE THEY THEMSELVES MELTED AWAY) TO
WARN THE POPULATION WHEN THEY HAD INTELLIGENCE
THAT A GSL OPERATION WAS PLANNED IN A SPECIFIC AREA.
THE COMMON MAN, ACCORDING TO PAUL, DOES NOT UNDERSTAND
THE DISAPPEARANCE FROM THE FIELD OF THE LTTE AS BEING
A STANDARD GUERRILLA TACTIC. INSTEAD HE SEES IT AS
A BETRAYAL. THE RESULT HAS BEEN A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN
ATTITUDES, HE CLAIMS, WITH MANY PEOPLE SHIFTING THEIR
TRUST FROM THE LTTE TO THE GOVERNMENT OF INDIA AS THEIR
ONLY POSSIBLE "PROTECTOR." NOW FOR THE FIRST TIME,
PAUL SAYS, PEOPLE IN JAFFNA ARE TALKING OPENLY ABOUT
ANNEXATION BY INDIA AS BEING AN ACCEPTABLE, EVEN
PREFERRED, SOLUTION TO THE CURRENT CRISIS.


4. BOTH THE SIZE AND MORALE OF THE LTTE HAVE REPORTEDLY
DIPPED PRECIPITIOUSLY BECAUSE OF THE OFFENSIVE. PAUL
BELIEVES THAT THE LTTE HAS BEEN UNABLE TO REPLACE MUCH
OF THE MUNITIONS AND EQUIPMENT IT LOST DURING THE
OFFENSIVE. HE SAYS THAT TIGER MORALE REMAINS LOW. THE
NUMBER OF CADRE TOO HAS DROPPED, PAUL SAID, FROM A HIGH
WHICH HE PLACED AT 7,000 TO SOME 3,000 NOW. OF THAT
NUMBER, HE ESTIMATED, ONLY ABOUT 500 HAD RECEIVED ANY
REAL TRAINING. WHEN THE OFFENSIVE CAME, MANY SIMPLY
QUIT FIGHTING BUT STAYED IN THE NORTH. A NUMBER OF
YOUNG MEN HAVE LEFT NOT ONLY THE MOVEMENT BUT THE
ISLAND, CROSSING TO INDIA. (EMBASSY COMMENT: SOME
UNDOUBTEDLY ARE COMING SOUTH AS WELL. WE WERE TOLD
JULY 7 BY A WELL-PLACED TAMIL SOURCE IN COLOMBO THAT
HE WAS BUSY FINDING HOUSING AND PLACEMENT IN SCHOOLS
FOR A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF TAMIL YOUTH WHO HAVE
COME DOWN FROM JAFFNA PENINSULA IN RECENT DAYS.)

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THE LTTE LEADERSHIP
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5. PAUL SAID THAT RECENT GSL CLAIMS OF SUCCESSES IN
KILLING VARIOUS TIGER LEADERS (WHICH WE HAD QUESTIONED
IN OUR LATEST WEEKLY ROUNDUP, COLOMBO 4388) ARE
ESSENTIALLY CORRECT. HE SAID THAT THE SECURITY FORCES
HAVE "DECIMATED" THE UPPER-MIDDLE LEADERSHIP IN RECENT
MONTHS AND THAT PRABHAKARAN NOW SUFFERS FROM A DEARTH
OF QUALIFIED LIEUTENANTS. MAHATHAYA (THE ALIAS SIMPLY
MEANS "MR."),THE FORMER KILINOCHCHI AREA COMMANDER
WHO WAS BROUGHT TO JAFFNA TO TAKE OVER AFTER KITTU WAS
WOUNDED EARLIER THIS YEAR, IS DEFINITELY PRABHAKARAN'S
SENIOR LIEUTENANT NOW. KITTU HOWEVER CONTINUES TO
REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE LTTE DESPITE SOME REPORTS HERE
THAT HE HAD LEFT THE ORGANIZATION AFTER THE ATTEMPT
ON HIS LIFE. (EMBASSY COMMENT: ACCORDING TO IQBAL
ATHAS, A COLOMBO JOURNALIST WHO REPORTS EXTENSIVELY
ON THE LTTE AND WHO HAS EXCELLENT CONTACTS WITH THEIR
LEADERSHIP, MAHATHAYA'S REAL NAME IS MAHENDRA RAJA.
HE IS BETWEEN 35-40 YEARS OLD AND IS FROM VAVUNIYA
IN THE WANNI AREA SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA. (SEE
COLOMBO 2374 OF APRIL 9 FOR WHAT OTHER FEW DETAILS
WE HAVE ON MAHATHAYA.)


6. BUT, AS WE HAVE REPORTED BEFORE, THE LTTE REMAINS
A HIGHLY CENTRALIZED AND AUTHORITARIAN ORGANIZATION.
PRABHAKARAN IS "THE ONLY LEADER" WHO COUNTS AT ALL.
IF SOMETHING WERE TO HAPPEN TO HIM, PAUL SAYS, THE
LTTE WOULD PROBABLY FALL APART. PRABHAKARAN REMAINS
ON THE PENINSULA BUT CONTINUES TO STAY OUT OF SIGHT.
HE HAS REFUSED TO SEE ANY OF THE MANY JAFFNA
JOURNALISTS OR PROMINENT CITIZENS WHO HAVE ASKED
TO SEE HIM IN RECENT MONTHS. PAUL COMMENTED THAT
PRABHAKARAN AND PRESIDENT JAYEWARDENE SHARE AT LEAST
ONE WEAKNESS: "THEY BOTH SUFFER FROM ISOLATION FROM
THEIR PEOPLE."

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PRABHAKARAN AND NEGOTIATIONS
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7. PRABHAKARAN REMAINS ABSOLUTELY UNBENDING IN HIS
DEMAND FOR EELAM. PAUL SAID THAT MANY IN THE LTTE
HIERARCHY, INCLUDING SPECIFICALLY KITTU AND RAHIM,
WOULD PROBABLY AGREE TO A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT AS
LONG AS IT INCLUDED THE CONCEPT OF A TAMIL "HOMELAND."
BUT PRABHAKARAN WOULD NOT AGREE TO NEGOTIATIONS UNDER
ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, AND HIS IS THE ONLY LTTE VIEW WHICH
MATTERS. HIS ANTIPATHY TO NEGOTIATIONS EXTENDS TO
REFUSING EVEN SECRET, INDIRECT CONTACTS WITH THE GSL:
ACCORDING TO PAUL, PRABHAKARAN THIS SPRING REFUSED
TO SEE THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF THE SATURDAY REVIEW
(GAMINI NAVARATNA, ONE OF THE RELATIVELY FEW SINHALESE
LIVING IN JAFFNA) EVEN KNOWING THAT NAVARATNA HAD BEEN
ASKED BY THE PRESIDENT TO DELIVER A MESSAGE TO HIM
ON J. R.'S BEHALF. PAUL APPEARED TO BELIEVE THAT A
WAY WOULD HAVE TO BE FOUND TO REMOVE PRABHAKARAN FROM
THE SCENE IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY HOPE FOR A NEGOTIATED
SOLUTION TO THE CRISIS.


SPAIN