IRAN/IRAQ WAR; SITUATION IN TEHRAN

S E C R E T ISLAMABAD 15762



E. O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: IR IZ PK
SUBJECT: IRAN/IRAQ WAR; SITUATION IN TEHRAN

REF: (A) STATE 227611 (B) ISLAMABAD 15582


1. SECRET - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. IN FURTHER DISCUSSION JULY 22, ADDITIONAL SECRETARY
FOR INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS SHAHARYAR KHAN WAS WILLING
TO EXPAND ON HIS INITIAL BRIEFING AND TO PROVIDE ANSWERS
TO A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS RAISED IN REF A. SHAHARYAR MADE
CLEAR THAT HIS COMMENTS WERE BASED ALMOST ENTIRELY ON
CONVERSATIONS HE HAD HAD WITH PAKISTANI EMBASSY OFFICIALS,
BUSINESSMEN AND MEDIA REPRESENTATIVES LIVING IN TEHRAN.
HE HIMSELF HAD BEEN THERE FOR ONLY FIVE DAYS AND HAD
MOVED AROUND THE CITY VERY LITTLE BUT, IN GENERAL WHAT HE
HAD SEEN SEEMED TO BEAR OUT WHAT HE HAD BEEN TOLD. HE
ADDED THAT THE PRIVATE PAKISTANI COMMUNITY IN TEHRAN IS
LARGE, HAS PRETTY GOOD ACCESS, AND HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR
A LONG TIME.


3. SHAHARYAR STATED THAT HIS INITIAL COMMENTS ON THE
GROWING DISENCHANTMENT OF THE POPULATION WERE MEANT TO
ENCOMPASS THE LOWER CLASSES. TO HIM, THERE WOULD BE
NOTHING NEW ABOUT DISAFFECTION AMONG THE BOURGEOIS
ELEMENT; WHAT IS NEW IS THAT THE LOWER CLASSES, BOTH IN
TEHRAN AND THE COUNTRYSIDE ARE INVOLVED. WHEN I ASKED HIM
WHY THIS WAS OCCURRING, HE POINTED TO THE CONSCRIPTION OF
12-13 YEAR OLDS AS THE MAJOR FACTOR, WITH PARENTS NOT
BEING WILLING TO ACCEPT THE NECESSITY OF SUCH A MOVE.


4. HE HIMSELF HAD NOT BEEN OUTSIDE TEHRAN ON THIS TRIP.
HOWEVER, PAKISTAN EMBASSY OFFICIALS AND PRIVATE CITIZENS
CAN MOVE ABOUT THE COUNTRYSIDE WITH FEWER RESTRICTIONS
THAN ALMOST ANY OTHER FOREIGNERS. (AS EVIDENCE, HE
RECOUNTED AN ANECDOTE IN WHICH THE PAKISTANI AMBASSADOR
WAS ALLOWED TO CONTINUE ON TO HIS SKIING DESTINATION AFTER
HIS SCANDINAVIAN COLLEAGUES HAD BEEN TURNED BACK AT A LOCA
CHECKPOINT.) THESE PAKISTANI SOURCES ARE IN AGREEMENT,
HE SAID, THAT THE ORDINARY PEOPLE ARE INCREASINGLY DIS-
ENCHANTED WITH THE WAR.


5. ACCORDING TO SHAHARYAR, THE "MODERATE" CLERICAL GROUP
IS LED BY RAFSANJANI, PRESIDENT KHAMENEI AND FOREIGN
MINISTER VELAYATI. HE DOUBTED THAT THEY HAD CONVEYED THEI
VIEWS ON THE WAR DIRECTLY TO ANY PAKISTANI OFFICIALS BUT
SAID THAT IT WAS RELATIVELY COMMON FOR IRANIAN THIRD
PARTIES TO CHARACTERIZE THEIR VIEWS TO THE PAKISTAN
EMBASSY. HE DID NOT BELIEVE THAT THESE LEADERS HAD YET
OPENLY DEBATED ANY DIFFERENCES OF VIEW ON THE WAR WITH
THE AYATOLLAH KHOMENEI NOR DID HE THINK THAT KHOMENEI WAS
LIKELY TO BE PERSUADED BY SUCH A DEBATE. AS TO ANY
"MIDDLE GROUND," IN SHAHARYAR'S VIEW NO ONE IN IRAN,
INCLUDING KHOMENEI, WOULD SERIOUSLY HOLD OUT FOR THE
ELIMINATION OF THE BAATH PARTY AS A PRECONDITION FOR ENDIN
THE WAR EVEN THOUGH THIS HAS BEEN A PUBLIC IRANIAN DEMAND.
HE RESTATED THAT WHAT THE MODERATES ARE LOOKING AT IS A
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD NOT NECESSARILY REQUIRE THE DEPARTURE
OF SADDAM HUSSEIN FROM POWER.


6. SHAHARYAR WAS RELUCTANT TO MAKE ANY ESTIMATE AS TO
WHETHER ONE GROUP OR ANOTHER AMONG THE CLERGY IS MOVING
INTO THE ASCENDANT OR ABOUT THE POSSIBLE TIME BEYOND WHICH
THE PRESENT SITUATION WOULD NOT ENDURE. HE DID SAY THAT
HIS OFFICIAL AND NON-OFFICIAL PAKISTANI CONTACTS GENERALLY
THOUGHT THAT ONE YEAR WAS ABOUT AS LONG AS THE PRESENT
SITUATION COULD CONTINUE WITHOUT THE GOVERNMENT DOING
SOMETHING TO RELIEVE THE GENERAL DISCONTENT BUT QUICKLY
ADDED THAT HE HAD HEARD TOO MANY PREDICTIONS ABOUT IRAN
IN THE PAST FOR HIM TO GIVE THEM MUCH CREDENCE.


7. SHAHARYAR SAID THAT FOREIGN MINISTER VELAYATI IS
ANXIOUS TO VISIT ISLAMABAD PRIOR TO THE NAM MEETING IN
HARARE AND THAT DATES IN THE SECOND OR THIRD WEEK OF
AUGUST HAVE BEEN DISCUSSED (BUT NOT YET NAILED DOWN).
ACCORDING TO HIM, THE GOI IS CONCERNED THAT IRAQ MAY BE
HAVING SOME SUCCESS IN NAM CIRCLES ON A RESOLUTION THAT
IRAN WOULD FIND ONESIDED AND IS ANXIOUS TO CONSULT WITH
THE GOP ON THIS ISSUE. SHAHARYAR EXPRESSED WILLINGNESS
TO PASS ON ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS ABOUT IRAN IN THE
FUTURE.


MCCARTHY