"NO NASSERISM, ONLY NASSERISTS"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 26111

E.O.: 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINS, EG, US
SUBJ: "NO NASSERISM, ONLY NASSERISTS"

REF: CAIRO 22742

1. C - ENTIRE TEXT.

2. SUMMARY. "NASSERISM" HAS GAINED PUBLICITY AND
TOPICALITY IN RECENT MONTHS (REFTEL),BUT NEITHER A
COHERENT IDEOLOGY NOR A BROAD BASED POLITICAL MOVEMENT HAS
EMERGED TO GIVE DEFINITION TO THE TERM. THE MOST CREDIBLE
ATTEMPT TO FORM A MOVEMENT IS THE SQUARELY ANTI-U.S.,
ANTI-ISRAEL "ARAB SOCIALIST NASSERIST PARTY" (ASNP),NOW
IN THE LEGAL LIMBO OF "PARTY UNDER ESTABLISHMENT." A NEW
WEEKLY NASSERIST NEWSPAPER CLAIMS INDEPENDENCE FROM THE
ASNP, BUT CLEARLY HAS LINKS TO IT OF DUBIOUS LEGALITY.
MUBARAK HAS TOLERATED BUT CAREFULLY CIRCUMSCRIBED THE
RE-EMERGENCE OF NASSERIST VISIBILITY. THE NASSERISTS
CLEARLY POSE NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO THE REGIME, AND ARE
LOCKED IN HOSTILE COMPETITION WITH ISLAMIC ACTIVISTS IN
THE ATTEMPT TO BEND POPULAR ECONOMIC DISSATISFACTION INTO
POLITICAL SUPPORT. THE NASSERISTS' PRIMARY SIGNIFICANCE
IS THEIR THEORETICAL POTENTIAL TO INCITE OPPOSITION TO
ECONOMIC REFORM, ADDING TO MUBARAK'S CAUTION IN ECONOMIC
DECISIONS. END SUMMARY.

3. NASSER'S GHOST: REFTEL REPORTED DIVERSE ELEMENTS OF
AN APPARENT RE-EMERGENCE OF "NASSERIST " POLITICAL
ACTIVITY, NOTABLY: MOHAMMED HASSANEIN HEIKAL'S
RE-APPEARANCE IN PRINT; ESTABLISHMENT OF A PLAINLY
NASSERIST WEEKLY NEWSPAPER; PROMINENT OFFICIAL
COMMEMORATION ON 30TH ANNIVERSARY OF NASSER'S
NATIONALIZATION OF THE SUEZ CANAL AND HIS SUBSEQUENT
EMERGENCE AS A NATIONAL HERO IN THE 1956 WAR; AND
ORGANIZATIONAL ACTIVITIES OF A PROSPECTIVE NEW NASSERIST
POLITICAL PARTY. THERE IS LINGERING, PERHAPS EVEN
MARGINALLY REVIVED POPULAR NOSTALGIA FOR ELEMENTS OF
NASSER'S LEGACY. NEVERTHELESS, THIS SELECTIVE NOSTALGIA
IS VOICED MAINLY AMONG INTELLECTUALS AND THE LOWER MIDDLE
CLASS PUBLIC SECTOR AND GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES, WHO
PROSPERED UNDER NASSER. EVEN THE DEMAGOGIC LEFTIST
OPPOSITION HAS AVOIDED PROMINENT PLAY OF NASSERISM AND THE
BRUITED NASSERIST REVIVAL.

4. MUBARAK AND REVISIONIST NASSERISM: IN HIS SPEECHES IN
SEPTEMBER AROUND THE ANNIVERSARY OF NASSER'S DEATH,
MUBARAK LAID CLAIM AS THE TRUE HEIR OF NASSERIST
NATIONALISM AND INDEPENDENCE FROM SUPERPOWER DOMINATION,
BUT DISTINGUISHED HIS OWN APPROACH FROM NASSER'S IN KEY
AREAS (PEACE WITH ISRAEL, DEMOCRACY, ECONOMIC REFORM).
BESIDES REVISING THE VALUES OF NASSERISM, THE MUBARAK
GOVERMENT IS TOYING WITH THE NEW "NASSERISTS." IT
EFFECTIVELY HAS LURED THEM ABOVE GROUND BY PERMITTING
PRE-ORGANIZATIONAL POLITICAL ACTIVITIES AND PRESS
INTERVIEWS, WHILE ARRESTING SOME ACTIVISTS AND WARNINQ AT
LEAST ONE WOULD-BE LEADER OF THE LIMITS ON HIS
ACTIVITIES. THE NASSERISTS ARE THEMSELVES (UNADMITTED)
REVISIONISTS, CLAIMING TO PROMINENT PROSPECTIVE RECRUITS
THAT THEY HAVE DISCARDED NASSER'S AUTHORITARIANISM.
EVIDENTLY THEY RECOGNIZE THAT THE MEMORY OF NASSER'S
OPPRESSION ALSO REMAINS VIVID FOR SOME.

5. NASSERISTS VS NASSERISM. NASSER CONFIDANT AND
CHRONICLER MOHAMMED HASSANEIN HEIKAL APTLY HAS
CHARGED IN PUBLISHED INTERVIEWS AND PRIVATE CON-
VERSATIONS THAT THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS "NASSERISM,
BUT ONLY NASSERISTS" TAKING PERSONAL INITIATIVES.
ABSENT THE GREAT HERO HIMSELF OR A BODY OF SEMINAL
PUBLICATIONS TO GUIDE HIS HEIRS, NO COHERENT POLITICAL
PHILOSOPHY EXISTS TO UNIFY THEM. COMPETING
NASSERISTS ARE ALLEGEDLY ACTIVE IN EACH OF THE
ESTABLISHED POLITICAL PARTIES; THE REMNANTS OF THE
DORMANT "EGYPT PARTY"; A PROSPECTIVE NEW NASSERIST
PARTY; A NEW WEEKLY NEWSPAPER; AND EVEN AMONG
ISLAMIC ACTIVISTS. THE TERM "NASSERIST" IS
USED LOOSELY AND DISPARAGINGLY: THE FREE-MARKET
WAFDISTS, LIBERALS, AND MEMBERS OF THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE OF THE NDP REGULARLY ACCUSE MUBARAK OF TOLER-
ATING NASSERISTS (IF NOT OUTRIGHT MARXISTS) AMONG
HIS SENIOR ADVISORS, USING AS EXAMPLES (WITHOUT
EXPLANATION) OSAMA AL BAZ AND SPEAKER OF
PARLIAMENT RIFA'AT MAHGOUB. THE RIGHT SUSPECTS
NEW PM ATIF SIDQI FOR HIS PAST ASSOCIATION WITH
NASSER THROUGH MAHGOUB. ONE WELL-CONNECTED, INDE-
PENDENT POLITICAL SCIENTIST CLAIMED THAT THE NASSER-
ISTS ARE DELIBERATELY PURSUING THEIR OBJECTIVES IN
MULTIFARIOUS CHANNELS, NOT QUITE AT ODDS WITH EACH
OTHER BUT NOT QUITE COOPERATING EITHER, AS A
MEANS TO EVADE GOVERNMENT PRESSURE.

6. FARID ABDEL KARIM AND THE ASNP: THE MOST PRO-
MINENT OF THE NASSER REVIVALISTS -- AND PERHAPS
LEAST LIKELY TO FAIL -- IS CONTROVERSIAL LAWYER
FARID ABDEL KARIM, THE "DEPUTY" OF THE NEW "ARAB
SOCIALIST NASSERIST PARTY" (ASNP). THE ASNP IS NOW
IN THE LEGAL LIMBO DEFINED AS "UNDER ESTABLISHMENT."
THAT GIVES THE ASNP THE DISADVANTAGES OF BEING OUT
IN THE OPEN, AND HENCE EASY MONITORING BY THE GOVERN-
MENT -- WITHOUT THE ADVANTAGES THAT GO WITH BEING
COMPLETELY LEGAL: HAVING A REGULAR PUBLIC VOICE (SEE
PARA 8),OR UNRESTRICTED ORGANIZATIONAL ACTIVITIES.
ABDEL KARIM TOLD POLOFF THAT THERE ARE ONLY TWO IMPORTANT
POLITICAL FORCES IN EGYPT TODAY: NASSERISM AND ISLAM,
NEITHER OF WHICH ARE REPRESENTED BY POLITICAL PARTIES.
ABDEL KARIM CLAIMS THE NASSERISTS BELIEVE IN TRUE
DEMOCRACY, AND THAT THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD PERMIT
ALL THOSE DESIRING POLITICAL PARTIES TO FORM THEM.
IN THIS CASE, THE ISLAMIC ELEMENTS WOULD QUICKLY
LOSE THEIR POPULARITY IN THEIR FRACTIOUSNESS. ON
THE OTHER HAND, THE OVERWHELMING POPULAR SUPPORT
FOR NASSERISM -- ABDEL KARIM CLAIMS 100,000 FOUNDING
MEMBERS -- WOULD ASSURE THE PRIMACY OF HIS PARTY.
ABDEL KARIM SAID THE ASNP AIMS NOT TO TAKE POWER,
BUT TO UNITE THE NASSERISTS ONLY TO LEAD THE LEGI-
TIMATE OPPOSITION THROUGH PEACEFUL MEANS. HE PRO-
FESSED SATISFACTION AT THE RECENT GOVERNMENT PRESSURE
ON HIMSELF AND OTHER NASSERISTS, CLAIMING THAT THIS
IS A POWERFUL UNIFYING FACTOR. HE EXPLAINED THAT HE
USES THE TITLE "DEPUTY" ("WAKEEL") -- ALTHOUGH HE
IS THE FOUNDER AND LEADER OF THE NEW PARTY, BECAUSE
NO FORMAL ELECTION OF A PRESIDENT CAN BE HELD UNTIL
THE PARTY EMERGES FROM "UNDER ESTABLISHMENT."

7. FOREIGN POLICY: AS IN HIS PUBLISHED INTERVIEWS, ABDEL
KARIM MADE CLEAR THAT TWO KEY ELEMENTS OF ASNP POLICY ARE
OPPOSITION TO U.S. "INFLUENCE" IN EGYPT AND TO PEACEFUL
EGYPTIAN-ISRAELI TIES. HE CHARGED US PRESSURE IS THE
PRIMARY REASON THAT THE GOVERNMENT STILL HAS NOT PERMITTED
FULL ESTABLISHMENT OF THE ASNP AND HAS SUSPENDED ITS
PUBLICATION, "AL ISHTIRAKI", AFTER ONLY TWO ISSUES
(PHOTOCOPIES POUCHED INR). NONETHELESS, HE WELCOMED THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A DIALOGUE, AND CLAIMED MANY PERSONAL
FRIENDSHIPS WITH AMERICANS. HE ALSO IMPLIED THAT HE
OPPOSES U.S. INFLUENCE IN EGYPT PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF HIS
MANIFEST HATRED FOR ISRAEL, RATHER THAN FOR ANY PURELY
NATIONALIST OR IDEOLOGICAL MOTIVATION. ABDEL KARIM DENIED
LINKS BETWEEN THE NASSERISTS AND QADDAFI, CHARGING THAT
QADDHAFI IS NASSERISM'S WORST ENEMY. HE SAID QADDHAFI
SEEKS ALLIANCE WITH NASSERISM TO DOMINATE IT, BUT THE
NASSERISTS REFUSE HIS BLANDISHMENTS.

8. "SAWT AL ARAB": AN EXAMPLE OF THE CONFUSED AND
COMPETING RELATIONSHIPS AMONG LEADING NASSERIST LIGHTS IS
THE CASE OF THE RECENTLY ESTABLISHED "SAWT AL ARAB"
NEWSPAPER AND ITS FOUNDER-EDITOR, ABDEL AZIM MANAF, WHO
HAS AVOIDED EMBASSY CONTACT. HEIKAL (FOR ONE) DENIED THAT
"SAWT AL ARAB" IS A NASSERIST ORGAN, CHARGING (AS DO MANY
OF OUR INTERLOCUTORS) THAT MANAF IS ON THE LIBYAN
PAYROLL. ONE OF MANAF'S FORMER UNIVERSITY MENTORS SAID
MANAF IS A "FANATIC," BUT FIRMLY DENIED THE PREVALENT
BELIEF THAT MANAF GETS LIBYAN FUNDING, CLAIMING SAWT AL
ARAB IS INSTEAD SUPPORTED BY THE SONS OF NASSER. FOR HIS
PART, FARID ABDEL KARIM DENIES LINKS WITH MANAF OR HIS
NEWSPAPER; HE ALSO DENIES THAT MANAF HAS POLITICAL
CONNECTIONS WITH LIBYA OR THE SONS OF NASSER. THE OFFICE
OF SAWT AL ARAB ALSO DENIES CONNECTIONS WITH ABDEL KARIM'S
ASNP, ALTHOUGH THE PAPER HEAVILY COVERS ABDEL KARIM AND
TOUTS A NASSERIST LINE. THE PRACTICAL BUT UNOFFICIAL LINK
BETWEEN THE ASNP AND SAWT AL ARAB IS DARING, BECAUSE UNTIL
THE ASNP IS FORMALLY ESTABLISHED IT MAY NOT LEGALLY
PUBLISH A REGULAR NEWSPAPER. MININT ZEKI BADR COULD CLOSE
BOTH ORGANIZATIONS AT HIS PLEASURE ON THIS LEGAL BASIS.


9. COMMENT. WE DETECT NO CONSENSUAL UNDERSTANDING OF
WHAT THE TERM "NASSERISM" MEANS, AND NO POPULAR BASIS FOR
A REVIVAL OF NASSERISM AS A POLITICAL MOVEMENT,
PARTICULARLY IN THE ABSENCE OF A SIMILARLY CHARISMATIC
NATIONAL HERO. AS HEIKAL SUGGESTED, THE ESSENCE OF
NASSERISM, AND THAT FOR WHICH SOME NOSTALGIA REMAINS, WAS
THE MAN AND HIS IMAGE, RATHER THAN ANY COHERENT BODY OF
IDEAS. MANY PUBLIC SECTOR WORKERS AND GOVERNMENT
EMPLOYEES PROBABLY DO SHARE LEFTIST INTELLECTUALS'
RESENTMENT AT THE PERCEIVED U.S. PRESSURE ON MUBARAK AND
HIS GOVERNMENT TO ADOPT ECONOMIC MEASURES THEY CONSIDER
INIMICAL TO THEIR INTERESTS. MANY EGYPTIANS NO DOUBT ALSO
SHARE THE NASSERISTS' BITTER ANTI-ISRAELI ATTITUDES, BUT
SUCH ATTITUDES ARE ALSO HELD BY ISLAMIC OPPONENTS OF
NASSERISM, AND DO NOT DETERMINE AN INDIVIDUAL'S
IDENTIFICATION AS A "NASSERIST." THE CHIEF IMPLICATION OF
LATTER DAY NASSERISM FOR U.S. INTERESTS IS ITS POTENTIAL
TO DIMINISH POPULAR SUPPORT, OR AT LEAST TOLERANCE, FOR
THE ECONOMIC REFORMS REQUIRED FOR EGYPTIAN STABILITY.
THEY LACK ORGANIZATION AND MASS APPEAL, SO THEIR
EFFECTIVENESS IN ACTUALLY INCITING THE PEOPLE AGAINST
ECONOMIC REFORMS PROBABLY WOULD BE ONLY MARGINALLY
INCREASED IF THEY EVENTUALLY ARE PERMITTED TO FORM A
LEGITIMATE PARTY (OR PARTIES) UNDER THE CURRENT INFORMAL
LEADERSHIP. END COMMENT.


WISNER