CONFLICT BETWEEN HIZBALLAH AND THE LEBANESE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 01023

SIPDIS
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV PINR LE
SUBJECT: CONFLICT BETWEEN HIZBALLAH AND THE LEBANESE
COMMUNIST PARTY

REF: BEIRUT 1006


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. DURING BRIEF CONVERSATION WITH POLOFF ON FEBRUARY 26,
DR. JAMIL NAHMI, DIRECTOR GENERAL OF PUBLIC SECURITY
(SURETE GENERALE),OFFERED HIS ANALYSIS OF THE RECENT
CLASHES IN WEST BEIRUT BETWEEN HIZBALLAH AND LEBANESE
COMMUNIST PARTY(LCP) MILITIAS.


3. NAHMI FIRST NOTED THE DEEP IDEOLOGICIAL DIVIDE WHICH
SEPARATES RELIGIOUS FUNDAMENTALISM AND COMMUNIST
DOCTRINE. UNLIKE MANY OTHER OPPOSING MILITIAS IN LEBANON
WHICH MAINTAIN SOME CONTACTS DESPITE THEIR ANIMOSITIES,
THE IDEOLOGICAL DIVIDE BETWEEN HIZBALLAH AND THE LPC WAS
SO DEEP THAT IT HAD PRECLUDED ANY WORKING CONTACTS
BETWEEN THE TWO ORGANIZATIONS.


4. AGAINST THIS BACKGROUND, NAHMI SITUATED THE ORIGIN OF
THE CURRENT HIZBALLAH/LPC CONFLICT IN SOUTH LEBANON. HE
ASSERTED THAT OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS AMAL HAD SUCCEEDED
IN REDUCING SSNP AND LPC PRESENCE IN SOUTH LEBANON AND
THAT MANY COMMUNIST MILITIAMEN HAD MIGRATED TO WEST
BEIRUT. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
HIZBALLAHI HAD ALSO COME TO WESMV BEIRUT FROM THE SOUTH.
THUS, NAHMI EXPLAINED, THESE TWO FUNDAMENTALLY OPPOSING
MILITIAS FOUND THEMSELVES CONCENTRATED IN WEST BEIRUT,
WHICH IS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA. THIS CONCENTRATION OF
FORCES IN WEST BEIRUT, THE GENERAL LAWLESSNES AND
DISORDER THERE, AND THE LACK OF ADEQUATE COUNTERVAILING
SECURITY FORCES HAD PROVIDED FERTILE GROUND FOR A
HIZBALLAH/LPC CONFLICT. THE CLASHES HAD APPARENTLY
ERUPTED AT THE STREET LEVEL AND SIMPLY ESCALATED.


5. ASKED ABOUT REPORTS (REFTEL) THAT SHIITE AND SUNNI
MUSLIM FUNDAMENTALISTS WERE COOPERATING IN WEST BEIRUT
AGAINST THE COMMUNISTS, NAHMI RESPONDED THAT THERE WAS
SOME "COINCIDENCE OF OBJECTIVES" BETWEEN PRO-IRANIAN
FUNDAMENTALIST GROUPS, BE THEY SHIITE OR SZNNI. THEY
BOTH TOOK GUIDANCE FROM TEHRAN, WHOSE OWN RELATIONS WITH
SYRIA HAVE DETERIORIATED, AND THEY BOTH HAD THEIR OWN
REASONS TO OPPOSE PRO-SYRIAN LEFTIST GROUPS SUCH AS THE
LCP AND THE SSNP. SUNNI FUNDAMENTALISTS SUCH AS THE
TAWHIID MOVEMENT REMAINED BITTER OVER THEIR DEFEAT IN
TRIPOLI LAST FALL BY SSNP XD LCP FORCES BACKED BY
SYRIA. THE SHIITE FUNDAMENTALISTS SUCH AS HIZBALLAH WERE
NOW DETERMINED TO OPPOSE MORE DIRECTLY PRO-SYRIAN LEFTIST
GROUPS, BOTH BECAUSE OF THE RELIGIOUS-VERSUS-SECULAR
IDEOLOGICAL SPLIT AND BECAUSE OF THEIR DETERIORATING
RELATIONS WITH SYRIA ITSELF. NAHMI PREDICTED, HOWEVER,
THAT THE TRADITIONAL RIFT BETWEEN SHIITE AND SUNNI
FUNDAMENTALISTS WOULD QUICKLY REAPPEAR WHEN THEY NO
LONGER FACED A COMMON ENEMY.


6. IN A BRIEF ASIDE, NAHMI MENTIONED THAT HE HAD MET
SEPARATELY WITH PSP LEADER JUMBLATT AND AMAL LEADER BARRI
OVER THE PAST TEN DAYS. HE SAID JUMBLATT SEEMED TO KNOW
WERE HE STANDS WITHIN HIS COMMUNITY AND SPOKE WITH SOME
CONFIDANCE AND AUTHORITY. BARRI, HOWEVER, SEEMED
"EXTREMELY ILL AT EASE" ABOUT HIS POSITION AND ACTED AS
IF HE WERE "WALKING ON SHIFTING SANDS." UNFORTUNATELY,
THE CONVERSATION WAS PREEMPTED AT THIS POINT, AND WE
CALD NOT DRAW NAHMI M FURTHER ON HIS ASSESSMENT OF
BARRI'S POSITION WITHIN THE SHIITE COMMUNITY.


7. BIOGRAPHIC NOTE. JAMIL NAHMI HAS A DOCTORATE IN
INTERNATIONAL LAW AND WAS THE DIRECTOR OF THE LEBANESE
UNIVERSITY LAW SCHOOL. A STAUNCH GEMAYEL LOYALIST, NAHMI
WAS ALSO AFFILIATED WITH THE "HOUSE OF THE FUTURE," THE
PRESIDENT'S THINK TANK AND PUBLISHING HOUSE. ALTHOUGH A
PHALANGIST, NAHMI COMES FROM KFAR AKKA NEAR AMIUN IN
NORTH LEBANON, I.E., FROM THE FRANJIYYAH HEARTLAND.


BARTHOLOMEW