RUMORS OF TENSIONS IN THE SOMALI REGIME

S E C R E T MOGADISHU 01242

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PINT PINS SO
SUBJECT: RUMORS OF TENSIONS IN THE SOMALI REGIME


1. SECRET/NOFORN - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. RUMORS ARE PROBABLY ALWAYS ABUNDANT HERE BUT AN FSN
EMPLOYEE (PROTECT SOURCE) TELLS US THAT RUMORS OF A NEW
KIND ARE CIRCULATING, AS FOLLOWS:

--FAILURE TO ANNOUNCE A DATE FOR THE INAUGURAL MEETING OF
THE NEW PARLIAMENT REFLECTS SIAD BARRE'S INDECISION ABOUT
POSSIBLE MAJOR CHANGES;

--THE PRESIDENT MAY ABSENT HIMSELF FROM THE COUNTRY FOR
EIGHT OR NINE MONTHS ON GROUNDS OF HEALTH, DECIDING ONLY
AT THE END OF THAT PERIOD WHETHER TO RETURN;

--HE MAY RE-CREATE THE POST OF PRIME MINISTER AND MAKE
SAMANTAR, NOW FIRST VICE PRESIDENT AND DEFENSE MINISTER,
PRIME MINISTER TO RUN THE COUNTRY IN HIS ABSENCE;

--GENERAL GANNI, THE HARSH MILITARY COMMANDER IN THE
NORTH, MIGHT REPLACE SAMANTAR AS DEFENSE MINISTER;

--SECOND VICE PRESIDENT KULMIE MIGHT BE GIVEN THE
HONORIFIC POST OF CHAIRMAN OF PARLIAMENT.


3. COMMENT: THESE RUMORS ARE NOT OUT OF LINE WITH OTHER
INFORMATION THE EMBASSY (INCLUDING SIRO) HAS REPORTED,
WHICH INDICATE THAT SIAD BARRE IS FEELING MORE AGED AND
WORRIED AND THAT THE QUESTION OF HIS LEAVING THE COUNTRY
HAS INDEED COME UP, ALTHOUGH HE IS REPORTED TO HAVE SAID
THAT HE WILL NOT LEAVE. THE DEPARTMENT WILL RECALL THAT
MINISTER OF THE PRESIDENCT ADDOU CONFIRMED TO THE
AMBASSADOR A FEW DAYS AGO THAT A CABINET SHAKEUP WAS
COMING AND MIGHT INVOLVE THE TWO VICE PRESIDENTS.
WHETHER THE INAUGURAL MEETING OF PARLIAMENT IS ACTUALLY
BEING DELAYED IS NOT CLEAR; WE CONTINUE TO HEAR THAT
IT MAY BE HELD THIS COMING WEEK.

BRIDGES