THE SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 07 DAMASCUS 01314

E.O.12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: KPRP PINS PGOV PREL PTER SY
SUBJECT: THE SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD

REF: DAMASCUS 575


1. SECRET - ENTIRE TEXT.

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2. SUMMARY: THE ONLY POPULAR MOVEMENT EVER TO HAVE
MOUNTED A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO ASAD'S REGIME--THE
MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD--HAS NOT RECOVERED FROM ITS INTERNAL
DIVISIONS AND THE DEVASTATING BLOW SUFFERED AT HAMA.
THE JANUARY 25 "PARDON" ANNOUNCED FOR CERTAIN MUSLIM
BROTHER EXILES IS FAR LESS THAN A GENERAL AMNESTY;
PROBABLY FEW MUSLIM BROTHERS WERE INVOLVED IN NEGOTIATING
IT AND FEW WILL BENEFIT FROM IT. THE "PARDON" WAS USE-
FUL TO ASAD IN BOLSTERING HIS IMAGE OF "BENEVOLENCE"
IN THE PERIOD LEADING UP TO THE FEBRUARY 10 REFERENDUM.
IT TESTIFIES TO THE CONTINUED WEAK STATE OF THE SYRIAN
MUSLIM BROTHERS. END SUMMARY.


SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERS: DEFEATED, DIVIDED, & DISCREDITED
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3. SINCE THE MASSIVE ARRESTS THAT BEGAN IN DECEMBER
1981 AND THE DEMOLITION OF HAMA IN FEBRUARY 1982, THE
MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD HAS BEEN TAME. IN THE INTERIM,
ASAD'S INTERNAL PROBLEMS HAVE DERIVED FROM AN ENTIRELY
DIFFERENT AREA--HIS OWN LAPSE OF HEALTH AND HIS BROTHER
RIF'AT'S GRAB FOR POWER. HAMA IS USUALLY VIEWED AS THE
WHOLE EXPLANATION FOR THE MUSLIM BROTHERS' FALL, BUT
THE EXPLANATION IS MORE COMPLEX.

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4. LONG BEFORE HAMA, IN THE SEVENTIES, THE SYRIAN
MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD SPLIT INTO AT LEAST THREE "TENDENCIES."
THERE WAS, AND STILL IS, A GROUP CENTERED AT AACHEN IN
WEST GERMANY, UNDER THE LEADERSHIP OF 'ISAM AL-'ATTAR,
WHO WAS EXILED FROM SYRIA IN 1964. AS EARLY AS 1970
MUSLIM BROTHERS IN SYRIA DECIDED THAT THEY NEEDED A
LEADER CLOSER TO HOME, AND 'ATTAR HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
IRRELEVANT. AT PRESENT, ACCORDING TO OUR GERMAN
COLLEAGUES, 'ATTAR IS OLD AND AILING, HE IS STILL IN
AACHEN, AND HE HAS BECOME ONLY A RELIGIOUS "THINKER."
HE SEEMS NO LONGER TO HAVE MUCH OF A FOLLOWING.
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5. LEADERSHIP OF THE SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERS CAME TO BE
DIVIDED INTO POLITICAL AND MILITARY "TENDENCIES." THE
POLITICAL TENDENCY WAS, AND STILL IS, LED BY A GROUP
OF OLDER MEN (BORN IN THE TWENTIES AND THIRTIES)
SUCH AS 'ADNAN SA'D AL-DIN, SA'ID HAWWA, AND THE AL-
BAYANUNI BROTHERS. THESE MEN MAY BE IN BAGHDAD OR
THEY MAY MOVE BETWEEN BAGHDAD AND AMMAN. THE "POLITICAL"
GROUP FALLS INTO THE TRADITIONAL MOLD OF THE FOUNDER
OF THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD, THE EGYPTIAN HASAN AL-BANNA:
MEN WHO ARE "FUNDAMENTALIST" IN WISHING TO CREATE A
STATE BUILT ON THE KORAN BUT WHO CAN ACCEPT CERTAIN
WESTERN HUMANISTIC AND PARLIAMENTARY IDEAS. IN THE
EARLY SEVENTIES, THESE MEN EMBRACED THE IDEA OF MILITARY
OPERATIONS ("JIHAD"),IN OPPOSITION TO THE LESS
MILITARISTIC ORIENTATION OF 'ISAM AL-'ATTAR, BUT THEY
WERE SUBSEQENTLY UPSTAGED BY THE FAR MORE ACTIVE
MILITARISM OF THE "MILITARY TENDENCY" THAT DEVELOPED IN
THE MID-SEVENTIES. (IRONICALLY, 'ATTAR IS TODAY MORE
IDEOLOGICALLY ALLIED WITH THE MILITARY TENDENCY THAN
THE POLITICAL TENDENCY.)


6. THE "MILITARY TENDENCY" FROM THE BEGINNING HAS BEEN
LED BY A MUCH YOUNGER GROUP OF MEN. SINCE ITS INCEPTION
IN THE MID-SEVENTIES, IT HAS BEEN KNOWN AS AL-TALI'A
AL-MUQATILA LIL-MUJAHIDIN (THE FIGHTING VANGUARD OF
WARRIORS). IT HAS BEEN WILLING TO RESORT TO ANY FORM
OF TERROR (E.G., BLOWING UP THE CADETS' ARTILLERY
SCHOOL IN ALEPPO IN 1980, WITH OVER FIFTY KILLED). ITS
LEADERS HAVE REJECTED WESTERN IDEAS, ANY FORM OF
COMPROMISE WITH SECULAR MOVEMENTS, AND ANY MERCY FOR
ALAWIS. IN THEIR FANATICISM, THEY FORM A SUNNI ANALOGUE
TO THE KHOMEINISTS. THIS GROUP'S EARLY LEADERS WERE ONE
BY ONE KILLED BY ASAD'S SECURITY FORCES WHEN
ASAD BEGAN TO STEP UP HIS CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE MUSLIM
BROTHERS IN 1979-80. THE LEADER--OR "CALIPH," AS HE
WAS CALLED BY HIS ADHERENTS--WHO SUCCEEDED THEM WAS
'ADNAN 'UQLA (BORN 1950).


7. FOR A TIME, BEGINNING WITH THE FORMATION OF AN
"ISLAMIC FRONT" AND THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE "MANIFESTO
OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION OF SYRIA" IN NOVEMBER 1980
(SIGNED BY 'ADNAN SA'D AL-DIN, SA'ID HAWWA, AND 'ALI AL-
BAYANUNI--THE LAST NAMED AS THE ISLAMIC FRONT'S
"SECRETARY GENERAL"),THERI WAS GREATER COOPERATION
WITHIN THE SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD. 'ISAM AL-'ATTAR
JOINED THE FRONT, AND 'UQLA AND THE "POLITICAL TENDENCY"
HELD NEGOTIATIONS TO TRY TO PATCH UP THIIR DIFFERENCES.
IT APPEARS THAT THEY MAY EVEN HAVE COORDINATED TO TRY
TO EFFECT A COUP AGAINST ASAD, WHICH THEY FORESAW
WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY MASS UPRISINGS THROUGHOUT THE
COUNTRY. (THEY ALSO HOPED FOR EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE--
FROM IRAQ, IN PARTICULAR.) THE MUSLIM BROTHERS
APPARENTLY HAD SYMPATHIZERS IN MANY QUARTERS OF THE
REGIME, INCLUDING IN HIGH PLACES IN THE ARMED FORCES.
PRESS REPORTING OF THE PERIOD SUGGESTS THAT COORDINATION
AND PLANNING WERE, HOWEVER, LACKING. ASAD'S SECURITY
FORCES GOT WIND OF THE PLOTTING AND BEGAN A MAJOR
ARREST CAMPAIGN BY THE END OF 1981. FOUR HUNDRED OFFICERS
WERE REPORTEDLY ARRESTED IN JANUARY, 1982. BY THE TIME
ASAD'S MEN LOCATED THE MUSLIM BROTHERS' HEADQUARTERS IN
HAMA, ON FEBRUARY 2, 1.82, ASAD'S MEN HAD PROBABLY
ALREADY BROKEN THE BACK OF THE MUSLIM BROTHERS'
INFRASTRUCTURE WITHIN THE REGIME. THE MUSLIM BROTHERS
IN HAMA, FORCED TO MAKE A STAND OR FACE ARREST AND
EXECUTION, OVERWHELMED THE ARMED FORCE THAT ASAD
ORGINALLY SENT IN TO HAMA, AND A SIEGE OF SEVERAL WEEKS
ENSUED, RESULTING IN THOUSANDS OF DEATHS. ( A TALI'A
SOURCE IN SEPTEMBER 1982 CLAIMED THAT 6,000 OF ASAD'S
FORCES, 400 "MUJAHIDIN," AND 15,000 CIVILIANS WERE
KILLED. MORE RECENTLY, SYRIANS ARE WONT TO CITE VERY
MUCH HIGHER FIGURES.)


8. TALI'A AND THE "POLITICAL TENDENCY" HAD ALREADY
BROKEN OFF THEIR NEGOTIATIONS IN DECEMBER 1981, AT
THE TIME WHEN THE MAJOR ARRESTS HAD BEGUN, TWO MONTHS
BEFORE HAMA. HAMA ITSELF, THEREFORE, WAS NOT THE CAUSE
OF THE FINAL RUPTURE, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STRONG FEELING
AMONG THE "POLITICAL TENDENCY" THAT THE TALI'A BOTCHED
THE JOB IN HAMA. THE RUPTURE BECAME OFFICIAL WHEN THE
"POLITICAL TENDENCY" JOINED THE NEWLY CONSTITUTED
"NATIONAL ALLIANCE FOR THE LIBERATION OF SYRIA" IN
MARCH 1982, WITH NINETEEN OTHER OPPOSITION MOVEMENTS
OR INDIVIDUALS,MOST OF THEM SECULAR AND CENTERED IN
IRAQ. SA'D AL-DIN REPRESENTS THE ISLAMIC FRONT IN THE
NATIONAL ALLIANCE, WHICH INCLUDES THE PRO-IRAQI WING
OF THE SYRIAN BA'TH PARTY (MICHEL 'AFLAQ),THE ARAB
SOCIALIST MOVEMENT (LED BY 'AFLAQ'S ERSTWHILE ALLY
AKRAM AL-HAWRANI),NASSERISTS, AND INDIVIDUALS SUCH AS
FORMER SYRIAN DICTATOR AMIN AL-HAFIZ.


9. THE FORMATION OF THE NATIONAL ALLIANCE SIGNALED
HOW FAR THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD HAD FALLEN. NOT ONLY HAD
IT LOST MUCH OF ITS INFRASTRUCTURE PLANTED IN THE REGIME
AND MUCH OF ITS FIGHTING FORCE, IT HAD BECOME
IRRECONCILABLY SPLIT AND THE POLITICAL WING HAD SULLIED
ITSELF BY ASSOCIATING WITH GROUPS ALIEN TO THE IDEA OF AN
ISLAMIC STATE AND BY PUTTING ITSELF SQUARELY INTO THE
GRIP OF THE IRAQI REGIME. IT IS LITTLE WONDER THAT IN
THE PERIOD AFTER THOSE DEVASTATING MONTHS, DECEMBER 1981
TO MARCH 1982, THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OR NO TERRORIST
ACTIVITY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD IN
SYRIA, AND INDEED, LITTLE APPARENT POLITICAL ACTIVITY.
(THE ISRAELI INVASION OF LEBANON IN JUNE 1982 WAS
ALSO A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR, SINCE THAT INVASION HAD
THE EFFECT OF BINDING THE SYRIAN POPULACE AGAINST THE
PERCEIVED ENEMY, AND MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD ACTIVITY--EVEN
LEAVING ASIDE THE DISCREDITING TRAUMA OF HAMA--WOULD
HAVE FOUND LESS POPULAR SYMPATHY THAN NORMALLY.)


10. IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD
HAS EVER RECEIVED EXTENSIVE EXTERNAL SUPPORT. WITH
ITS INTERNAL STRUCTURE DISRUPTED AND ITS NAME BLACKENED
AMONG ITS OWN PURISTS AND AMONG THE SYRIAN POPULACE AT
LARGE, IT PRESUMABLY HAS HAD TO LOOK EVEN MORE ACTIVELY
FOR EXTERNAL SUPPORT. HOWEVER, THERE ARE FUNDAMENTAL
CONSTRAINTS THAT CAUSE US TO BELIEVE THAT THEY HAVE NOT
HAD GREAT SUCCESS:

--SECULAR, BA'THI IRAQ WELCOMED AT LEAST SOME OF THE
LEADERS OF THE POLITICAL TENDENCY "WITH OPEN ARMS."
BUT IT CLOSED THE DOOR TO THE TALI'A. ('UQLA COULD NOT
FIND REFUGE THERE. ACCORDING TO SOME REPORTS HE WAS
ARRESTED WHEN TRYING TO SNEAK BACK INTO SYRIA EITHER
IN 1983 OR 1984; HE HAS NOT BEEN HEARD FROM RECENTLY.)
A JORDANIAN COLLEAGUE SAYS THAT IRAQ "MAY BE" TRAINING
THE MUSLIM BROTHERS NOW, BUT ON A LIMITED BASIS. THE
IRAQI REGIME APPARENTLY WILL NOT COUNTENANCE
ANY OPERATIONS NOT TOTALLY UNDER ITS CONTROL.

--JORDAN MAINTAINS AN INTELLIGENCE LINK TO THE BROTHER-
HOOD AND REPORTEDLY ALLOWS ALL FACTIONS OF THE SYRIAN
MUSLIM BROTHERS FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT, BUT IT WOULD BE
EXTREMELY NERVOUS ABOUT ANY OPERATION AGAINST SYRIA,
WHICH WAS SEEN TO BE PLANNED OR TAKE PLACE FROM JORDAN.
IT APPARENTLY GIVES LITTLE ACTIVE ASSISTANCE, AND IT IS
SUSPICIOUS OF ALL MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD ACTIVITY.

--ARAFAT'S PLO HAS A LONG HISTORY OF COOPERATION WITH
THE MUSLIM BROTHERS (ONE OF MANY REASONS FOR ASAD'S
ANTIPATHY),BUT ARAFAT'S ABILITY TO BE HELPFUL IS PROBABLY
NOT VERY GREAT. ARAFAT AND OTHER FOUNDERS OF FATAH WERE
THEMSELVES MUSLIM BROTHERS , AND FEDAYEEN AND MUSLIM
BROTHERS TRAINED TOGETHER IN JORDAN BEFORE THE 1970
CIVIL WAR. MORE RECENTLY, ARAFAT AND SHAYKH SHA'BAN,
TAWHID LEADER IN TRIPOLI, LEBANON, WERE CLOSE ALLIES
UNTIL ARAFAT WAS DRIVEN OUT IN DECEMBER 1983. (SHA'BAN,
WE BELIEVE, IS A MUSLIM BROTHER, AND SOME OF THE SYRIAN
MUSLIM BROTHERS WHO FLED AFTER HAMA TOOK REFUGE IN
TRIPOLI AND FORM A PART OF THE TAWHID.) ARAFAT'S DIRECT
ASSISTANCE--AT LEAST IN THE FORM OF ACTIVE INVOLVEMENT
IN ORGANIZATION AND TRAINING--WAS PROBABLY DISRUPTED
BY HIS OUSTER FROM TRIPOLI AND WE ARE UNCERTAIN AS TO
THE DEGREE OF CONTINUING COOPERATION.

--IRAN IS ANATHEMA TO THE POLITICAL TENDECY, BOTH
BECAUSE OF ITS SUPPORT FOR THE ASAD/ALAWI REGIME
AND BECAUSE OF THE POLITICAL TENDENCY'S ASSOCIATION
WITH IRAQ. IRAN'S RELATIONSHIP WITH TALI'A IS MORE
NUANCED. TALI'A REVILES IRAN FOR ITS SUPPORT FOR ASAD,
BUT THERE IS A COMMON FANATICISM AND THERE MAY BE A
REALIZATION WITH THE TALI'A THAT IRAN'S RELATIONSHIP
WITH ASAD IS PURELY TACTICAL AND THEREFORE THAT IRAN
IS NOT "BEYOND REDEMPTION."

--SAUDI ARABIA IS SIMILARLY REVILED FOR ITS ENORMOUS
FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO THE ASAD REGIME, BUT WE HEAR
PERSISTENT RUMORS THAT RIYADH HAS ALSO PROVIDED
FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE AND REFUGE TO CERTAIN OF THE
MUSLIM BROTHERS. SAUDI DIPLOMATIC CONTACTS HERE
STOUTLY DENY ANY ASSOCIATION WITH ANY SYRIAN MUSLIM
BROTHERS, AVERRING THAT THEY WOULD HAVE NOTHING TO GAIN
AND MUCH TO LOSE. ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE ARE ALMOST
CERTAINLY MUSLIM BROTHERS IN MECCA, WHOSE PRESENCE IS
TOLERATED BECAUSE OF THEIR RELIGIOUS UNDERPINNINGS AND
TIES TO THE RELIGIOUS ESTABLISHMENT.


THE "PARDON": PUBLICITY PLOY AND SIGN OF BROTHERHOOD
WEAKNESS
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11. INTO THE APPARENT THREE-YEAR VOID IN
MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD ACTIVITY, ASAD HAS NOW INJECTED HIS
LIMITED PARDON OF JANUARY 25. SOME SYRIANS AND
DIPLOMATIC COLLEAGUES HAVE EXPRESSED SURPRISE TO US
THAT ASAD DID NOT MAKE SOME "GRAND GESTURE" SOME MONTHS
AGO, BEGINNING AT THE TIME OF HIS RECOVERY IN HEALTH
AND RIF'AT'S EXILE. HOWEVER, ASAD PROBABLY NEEDED ALL
OF 1984 TO BUILD BACK FROM THE CRISIS BROUGHT ON BY
HIS HEART ATTACK, AS SHOWN BY HIS CONTINUAL DEFERRAL
OF THE EIGHTH REGIONAL CONGRESS.

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12. THE "PARDON" IS FAR FROM A GENERAL AMNESTY:

--IT DECLARES: "CONTACTS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN HELD
BETWEEN US AND THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD VANGUARD ORGANIZA-
TION (TANZIM AL'TALI'A) LEADERSHIP ABROAD." THE NAME,
"TANZIM AL'TALI'A," IS NOT THE SAME AS "AL-TALI'A AL-
MUQATILA LIL -MUJAHIDIN," THE OFFICIAL NAME THAT HAS
ALWAYS BEEN EMPLOYED BY THE "MILITARY TENDENCY."

--"ABROAD" IMPLIES THAT THE AMNESTY IS INTENDED ONLY FOR
EXILES, NOT FOR MUSLIM BROTHERS IN PRISON IN SYRIA.
(A TALI'A SPOKESMAN IN 1982 CLAIMED THAT THERE WERE
10,000 MUSLIM BROTHERS IN JAIL IN SYRIA. ALL OF OUR
INTERLOCUTORS ON THE SUBJECT ASSERT THAT THERE ARE
"THOUSANDS UPON THOUSANDS" OF SYRIANS IN JAIL, ACCUSED
OF BEING OR ASSOCIATING WITH MUSLIM BROTHERS, DATING
FROM THE LATE SEVENTIES BUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE HAMA
PERIOD. INDEED, IT IS COMMON TO MEET SYRIANS WHO HAVE
SOME FAMILY MEMBER, OR WHO KNOW OTHERS WHO HAVE SOME
FAMILY MEMBER, IN JAIL UNDER ACCUSATIONS RELATING TO
THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD. 10,000 SEEMS A FAIR ESTIMATE--
AND A VERY LARGE NUMBER FOR A SMALL COUNTRY.)

--IT DECLARES THAT "THIS LEADERSHIP" HAS EXPRESSED "NEW
CONVICTIONS" RECOGNIZING THE PERFIDY OF THE "PLOT
CONCOCTED AGAINST SYRIA" BY "THOSE TRADING IN THE NAME
OF RELIGION." THIS FORMULATION SUGGESTS THAT MUSLIM
FANATICS--IF INDEED THE TALI'A--HAD A CHANGE OF HEART,
INCLUDING A RECOGNITION THAT THEIR PREVIOUS ACTS
AGAINST THE ASAD REGIME IN THE NAME OF ISLAM WERE
ACTUALLY CONTRARY TO ISLAM.

--IT DECLARES THAT "THIS LEADERSHIP" HAS EXPRESSED, IN
ITS NAME AND "THE NAME OF MANY OF THE BROTHERHOOD
BASES," THE DESIRE TO "RETURN TO THE HOMELAND" AND THAT
"THIS PARDON WILL BE APPLICABLE TO EVERYONE WHO
RETURNS TO HIS HOMELAND WITH AN OPEN HEART." IT
SUGGESTS, THUS, THAT THE PARDON--WHILE ONLY ADDRESSED TO
EXILES--IS SOMEHOW ADDRESSED NOT TO ONE GROUP ONLY,
BUT TO ALL BROTHERHOOD "BASES" AND "EVERYONE" WHO
SOMEHOW "PROVES" HIS ALLEGIANCE AND CHANGE OF HEART.

--FINALLY, IT DECLARES THAT "SOME OF THESE CITIZENS
HAVE ALREADY RETURNED" UNDER A "SPECIAL PARDON FROM
HAFIZ AL-ASAD."


13. ON THE VERY SAME DAY AS THIS "PARDON," THE FINAL
DECLARATION OF THE EIGHTH REGIONAL CONGRESS WAS ISSUED,
CARRYING AN ALTOGETHER DIFFERENT MESSAGE. DURING THE
CONGRESS, WE HAD HEARD THAT TWO "SECRET" SESSIONS
DEALT WITH THE ISSUE OF THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD, AND
THESE REPORTS WERE BORNE OUT IN THE FINAL DECLARATION.

--"DURING ITS STUDY OF THE DOMESTIC SITUATION, THE
CONGRESS DISCUSSED THE PLOT OF THE AGENT MUSLIM
BROTHERHOOD GANG, WHICH HAS SOUGHT TO IMPLEMENT THE
PLANS OF IMPERIALISM AND SOME OF ITS TOOLS IN THE
REGION THROUGH BASES OF SUPPORT, SUPPLIES, TRAINING,
AND HELP FROM JORDAN AND IRAQ. THE CONGRESS ALSO
REVIEWED THE MEASURES TAKEN TO LIQUIDATE THAT AGENT
GANG AND TO PURSUE ITS ELEMENTS...IT PRAISED THE MEASURES
EXERTED...TO LIQUIDATE THIS GANG AND TO FOIL THE
IMPERIALIST-ZIONIST SCHEMES IT WAS IMPLEMENTING."

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THERE IS NOT A WORD OF LENIENCY IN THIS FORMULATION. IN
EFFECT, IT IS A STATEMENT THAT IMPLIES THAT HAMA WAS
NECESSARY, THE REGIME IS NOT SORRY ABOUT IT, AND IT
WILL DO IT AGAIN IF NECESSARY.


14. THUS THIS "PARDON" IS HIGHLY SUSPECT ON SEVERAL
COUNTS:

--IT DOES NOT ADDRESS THE THOUSANDS OF MUSLIM BROTHERS
WHO ARE IN PRISON. IT IS DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE VERY
MANY MUSLIM BROTHER EXILES BEING LURED BACK TO SYRIA
WITHOUT A DEMONSTRATION THAT OTHERS, NOT SO FORTUNATE
TO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FLEE, WOULD NOT ALSO BE FORGIVEN.
IN FACT, THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS THAT SOME OF
THOSE IN PRISON--A "SMALL NUMBER," OR "MORE THAN A
HUNDRED," OR "FIVE HUNDRED"--HAVE BEEN RELEASED
(ACCORDING TO ONE REPORT, MOST OF THESE WERE WOMEN).
ON THE OTHER HAND, MOST OF OUR CONTACTS KNOW OF NO
PROGRESS WHATSOEVER ON RELEASE OF MUSLIM BROTHERS, AND
THEIR INQUIRIES INTO THE FATE OF RELATIVES CONTINUE
TO MEET THE SAME DEADLY SILENCE AS HAS PREVAILED FOR
THREE YEARS. BY THE MOST OPTIMISTIC ACCOUNT, THERE
SCARCELY SEEMS TO DE THE KIND OF DEMONSTRATION OF
"GOOD INTENTIONS" THAT MUSLIM BROTHERS WITH A HEALTHY
INSTINCT FOR SELF-PRESERVATION WOULD REQUIRE BEFORE
CONTEMPLATING A RETURN TO SYRIA. (THE REGIME WOULD HAVE
A MAJOR PROBLEM IN GRANTING A GENERAL AMNESTY. MANY
OF THE MUSLIM BROTHERS WHO WERE IMPRISONED HAVE
UNDOUBTEDLY "DISAPPEARED"--ACCORDING TO ONE REPORT,
SEVERAL WERE INTENTIONALLY "RELEASED" FROM PALMYRA
PRISON AND THEN HUNTED DOWN AND KILLED--AND OTHERS
TORTURED TO SUCH AN EXTENT THAT THEY WOULD NOT BE
"PRESENTABLE" TO THE PUBLIC.)

--THE "PARDON" IS EXTREMELY VAGUE ON HOW AN EXILE IS
MEANT TO "PROVE" HIS SINCERITY AND ALLEGIANCE, ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT WOULD DISSUADE "HOMESICK" EXILES.

--IT TALKS ABOUT THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD VANGUARD
ORGANIZATION LEADERSHIP ABROAD, RATHER THAN THE LEADER-
SHIP OF THE FIGHTING VANGUARD OF THE WARRIORS.
"VANGUARD" (TALI'A) IS A COMMONLY USED CATCHWORD IN
SYRIAN POLITICAL PARLANCE. THE SYRIANS THUS MAY NOT BE
REFERRING TO THE SAME GROUP; THEY MAY EVEN BE
INTENTIONALLY USING PART OF THE NAME IN AN EFFORT TO
DISCREDIT THE "MILITARY TENDENCY" FURTHER. IT IS
NOTEWORTHY THAT IF 'ADNAN 'UQLA, THE TALI'A "CALIPH,"
IS IN FACT IN A SYRIAN PRISON, THE SYRIANS HAVE
SPECIFICALLY EXCLUDED HIM IN THEIR FORMULATION.

--FINALLY, THE VERY NATURE OF THE SYRIAN MUSLIM
BROTHERS--AND ESPECIALLY THE WELL-KNOWN FANATICISM OF
THE TALI'A--IS SUCH AS TO SUGGEST THAT VERY FEW OF THEIR
MEMBERS, MUCH LESS THEIR LEADERS, WOULD ACCEPT THE
HUMILIATION OF KOWTOWING TO HAFIZ AL-ASAD.


15. NEVERTHELESS, WE HAVE HAD A NUMBER OF REPORTS THAT
SYRIAN SECURITY OFFICIALS DID CONDUCT NEGOTIATIONS WITH
REPRESENTATIVES OF AN ORGANIZATION CALLING ITSELF
"TALI'A"--MEANT TO BE THE TALI'A OF 'ADNAN 'UQLA--A
PROCESS THAT SUPPOSEDLY BEGAN WITH THE INTERVENTION OF
SA'ID SHA'BAN AND POSSIBLY THE IRANIANS. WE EVEN HAVE
A REPORT THAT SOME "FEW HUNDRED" TALI'A MEMBERS HAVE
RETURNED TO SYRIA FROM REFUGE IN SAUDI ARABIA, THANKS
TO THE INTERVENTION OF CROWN PRINCE 'ABDALLAH, WHEN HE
WAS IN DAMASCUS JANUARY 21-FEBRUARY 1 (AND POSSIBLY
ALSO DURING HIS SEPTEMBER 1984 VISIT),AND THAT TALI'A
MAY EVEN JOIN THE SYRIAN "NATIONAL PROGRESSIVE FRONT"*

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16. IF THESE REPORTS HAVE ANY TRUTH TO THEM, THEY
ARE THE STRONGEST INDICATION YET OF THE LOW STATE TO
WHICH THE SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERS HAVE FALLEN. IN
SEPTEMBER 1982, AN UNNAMED SPOKESMAN FOR TALI'A, IN
AN INTERVIEW WITH LE MATIN, POINTED A FINGER AT THE
"POLITICAL TENDENCY," DISDAINFULLY ACCUSING ITS LEADERS
(SA'D AL-DIN ET AL) OF BEING ON THE VERGE OF JOINING A
COALITION WITH ASAD. NOW IT MAY BE THAT TALI'A ITSELF,
OR SOME ELEMENTS IN IT, HAVE DONE JUST THAT.


17. GIVEN THE RELIABILITY OF THESE RECENT REPORTS, WE
ARE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THAT A SMALL OR FRINGE ELEMENT
OF THE TALI'A, OR AN ELEMENT OF MUSLIM BROTHERS WHO
HAVE ASSUMED THE NAME, HAS ENGAGED IN THESE NEGOTIA-
TIONS WITH THE SYRIANS. THE SHA'BAN CONNECTION IS
PLAUSIBLE--INDEED, OUR SAUDI AND JORDANIAN DIPLOMATIC
CONTACTS HERE, WITHOUT PROMPTING, INDICATED TO US THAT
THERE WERE NUMEROUS "MEN FROM TRIPOLI" MILLING ABOUT
IN DAMASCUS IN THE WEEKS BEFORE THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF
THE "PARDON," AND THEY BELIEVE "TRIPOLI" WAS WHAT IT
WAS ALL ABOUT. A SWEDISH DIPLOMAT HERE, A LONG-TIME
FOLLOWER OF THE SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERS (APPARENTLY
THERE ARE MANY OF THEM IN SWEDEN),INFORMS US ALSO
THAT HE HAD HEARD, AT THE TIME OF SHA'BAN'S REMARK-
ABLE VISIT TO DAMASCUS IN SEPTEMBER 1984, THAT SHA'BAN
HAD RAISED THE ISSUE OF THE RETURN TO SYRIA OF SOME
OF THE SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERS WHO HAD TAKEN REFUGE
IN TRIPOLI. (THE SWEDE ALSO SAYS THAT SHA'BAN, A
MORTAL ENEMY OF ASAD, ONLY AGREED TO COME TO DAMASCUS,
AT IRANIAN PRESIDENT KHAMENEI'S URGING, WHEN
KHAMENEI AGREED TO KEEP AN IRANIAN MINISTER IN TRIPOLI
AND ASAD AGREED TO SEND A HIGH-RANKING SYRIAN OFFICIAL
TO TRIPOLI AS GUARANTORS OF SHA'BAN'S SAFE RETURN.)
SA'ID SHA'BAN MADE HIS SECOND VISIT TO SYRIA ON
FEBRUARY 20, THOUGH WE HAVE NOT YET HEARD THAT THE
LATTER VISIT HAD A MUSLIM BROTHERS CONNECTION.


18. THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE "PARDON" FOR MUSLIM
BROTHERS FORMED A PART OF THE PRE-REFERENDUM
PUBLICITY BUILD-UP. IT IS CLEAR THAT ASAD WANTED TO
GO INTO THE REFERENDUM WITH HIS "RELIGIOUS FLANK" AS
WELL COVERED AS POSSIBLE. IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO
THE REFERENDUM ON FEBRUARY 10, FOR EXAMPLE, THE PRESS
WAS REPLETE WITH HEADLINES OF ACCLAIM FOR ASAD FROM
EACH OF THE PRINCIPAL RELIGIOUS LEADERS IN SYRIA,
INCLUDING EVEN A JOINT MUSLIM-CHRISTIAN DECLARATION.
ASAD HAS ALWAYS BEEN CAREFUL TO APPEAR TO BE A DEVOUT
MUSLIM--DESPITE BEING AN ALAWI AND THUS DESPISED BY
DEVOUT MUSLIMS--AND HE HAS ALWAYS TROTTED OUT CHRISTIAN
LEADERS AT TIMES WHEN IT WAS IMPORTANT TO DEMONSTRATE
NATIONAL UNITY; BUT WE HAVE NEVER SEEN QUITE SO MUCH OF
IT ALL AT ONCE.


19. BUT HIS NEED FOR THIS "PARDON" AT THIS TIME GOES
DEEPER. HAMA CONTINUES AS A VERY PRESENT, VERY
HORRIBLE NATIONAL MEMORY. NOTHING LIKE HAMA HAD EVER
OCCURRED IN LIVING MEMORY. (JAMAL PASHA'S HUPPRESSION
OF CHRISTIAN MINORITIES INVOLVED TURKISH BUTCHERY
OF CHRISTIANS, MOSTLY ARMENIANS AND MARONITES--THUS
THIS IS NOT A MEMORY OF SYRIANS BUTCHERING FELLOW
SYRIANS.) WE BELIEVE THAT ASAD SOUGHT TO GO INTO HIS
THIRD TERM "CLEANSED," WITH THE HORROR OF HAMA PUT
BEHIND HIM. AT THE SAME TIME, THE MEMORY OF HAMA HAS
ITS UTILITY, IN REMINDING THE PEOPLE THAT ASAD IS
WILLING TO BE UNIMAGINABLY TOUGH WHEN HE HAS TO BE.
THUS, HE GAVE DOUBLE, APPARENTLY CONTRADICTORY
MESSAGES--THE "PARDON," AND THE EIGHTH CONGRESS FINAL
DECLARATION ON THE SAME DAY STRESSING CONTINUED TOUGH-
NESS. INDEED, THE "PARDON" IS ALSO QUITE TOUGH IN
ITS CONDEMNATION OF THOSE "TRADING IN THE NAME OF
RELIGION" AND "DISTORTING THE NOBLE RELIGION."
ASAD SEEKS TO GIVE AN IMAGE OF BEING "BENEVOLENT,"
"TOUGH," AND THE "UPHOLDER OF RELIGION" (THOUGH ALAWI)
ALL AT THE SAME TIME.

-

20. NOTE: POST WOULD WELCOME CRITICISMS AND
CONTRIBUTIONS TO THIS STUDY FROM DEPARTMENT, CIA, AND
DIA, AND EMBASSIES BAGHDAD, AMMAN, AND RIYADH. OUR
OWN HISTORICAL SOURCES ARE EXTREMELY LIMITED.


21. BEIRUT MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. EAGLETON