SIDON: ANOTHER "WAR OF THE CAMPS" IN THE OFFING?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 04372

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPAL SY LE
SUBJECT: SIDON: ANOTHER "WAR OF THE CAMPS" IN THE OFFING?

REF: DAMASCUS 4580


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION. SIX WEEKS AFTER
ISRAEL ANNOUNCED THE COMPLETION OF ITS MILITARY
WITHDRAWAL FROM SOUTH LEBANON, THAT REGION
REMAINS TENSE AND UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH RELIABLE,
FIRST-HAND REPORTS ARE SPARSE, IT SEEMS CLEAR THAT
POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE SITUATIONS CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL IN SIDON AND JAZZIN. TROUBLES LINGER
ALONG THE BORDER STRIP BUT APPEAR TO HAVE
DIMINISHED.


3. IN SIDON, INCREASED FEARS OF AN OPEN CONFLICT
INVOLVING PRO-ARAFAT PALESTINIANS, THE PNSF, AMAL,
LOCAL MUSLIM MILITIAS, AND PERHAPS THE PSP HAVE
LED TO SYRIAN-SPONSORED EFFORTS TO HEAD OFF ANY
SUCH SHOWDOWN AND TO AVERT ANOTHER "WAR OF THE
CAMPS." MEANWHILE, SYRIA IS REPORTEDLY
BOLSTERING THE AMAL MILITIA WITH ADDITIONAL
EQUIPMENT AND TRAINING, PROBABLY BECAUSE OF DOUBTS
ABOUT THE STEADFASTNESS OF ITS OTHER ALLIES.
END SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION.


4. THE LOCAL PRESS AND MOST OF OUR LEBANESE
POLITICAL CONTACTS ARE REPLETE WITH STORIES THAT
TENSIONS ARE ESCALATING IN SIDON. THESE STORIES
ARISE, IN PART, FROM REPORTS THAT PLO LEADER
ARAFAT IS REINFORCING HIS LOYALISTS IN THE THE AYN
AL-HILWAH AND MIYAH MIYAH REFUGEE CAMPS AND IN
SIDON PROPER WITH ADDITIONAL MEN AND MATERIEL.
ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT CONFIRM OR QUANTIFY THESE
REINFORCEMENTS, THE LEADERS OF SIDON ARE, WE HEAR,
EXTREMELY EDGY" ABOUT THE ESCALATING TENSIONS
THERE AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FLARE-UP SIMILAR TO
THE "WAR OF THE CAMPS" IN BEIRUT.


5. ACCORDING TO LOCAL PRESS REPORTS, IN EARLY
JULY, SYRIAN TROOPS IN EASTERN LEBANON FORCED THE
PRO-ARAFAT "BADR BATTALION" OF THE PALESTINIAN
LIBERATION ARMY OUT OF THE BIQA', WHERE IT HAD
BEEN SINCE 1982, AND BACK TO JORDAN. THE PRESS
ALSO CITED REPORTS FROM CAIRO THAT ARAFAT HAD
PERSUADED THE GOE TO ALLOW HIM TO TRANSFER A PLA
UNIT, THE AYN JALUT BRIGADE, FROM EGYPT TO SOUTH
LEBANON. ON JULY 18, MUSTAFA SA'AD'S "POPULAR
NASSERITE ORGANIZATION" CLAIMED TO HAVE
INTERCEPTED TWO SHIPMENTS OF ARMS DESTINED FOR THE
CAMPS AND TO HAVE CAPTURED THE SMUGGLERS, WHO WERE
IDENTIFIED AS FOUR PRO-ARAFAT PALESTINIANS BEARING
JORDANIAN PASSPORTS. IN A "RADIO MONTE CARLO"
INTERVIEW, SIDON MP NAZIH BIZRI SAID THE TWO
CONTAINERS OF ARMS HAD BEEN SENT FROM JORDAN VIA
THE NORTHERN LEBANESE PORT OF TRIPOLI. MOST
RECENTLY, ON JULY 23, AN ISRAELI NAVAL VESSEL
FIRED ON AND SET ABLAZE A HONDURAN-REGISTERED
FREIGHTER IN SIDON HARBOR. ALTHOUGH RELIABLE
DETAILS ARE SPARSE, THE CARGO VESSEL WAS EVIDENTLY
SUSPECTED OF CARRYING ARMS; ITS MOVEMENTS WERE
DESCRIBED BY ISRAELI RADIO AS "SUSPICIOUS."


6. ON THE GROUND, THE RECENT ESCALATION OF
TENSIONS IN SIDON HAS SO FAR BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY
STILL RELATIVELY MINOR SHIA VS. PALESTINIAN
CLASHES. (WE HAVE SEEN NO RECENT REPORTS OF
SIGNIFICANT CLASHES BETWEEN LEBANESE SHIA AND
SUNNI IN SIDON, THOUGH ANIMOSITIES BETWEEN THEM
RUN HIGH.) AMAL AND PNSF FIGHTERS CLASHED BRIEFLY
ON JULY 15 WHEN THE LATTER ATTEMPTED TO REOCCUPY
PREVIOUSLY EVACUATED POSITIONS NEAR AYN AL-HILWAH
CAMP. OTHER AMAL-PALESTINIAN CLASHES OCCURRED THE
SAME DAY NEAR BA'LABAKK AND ON JULY 21 AT THE BURJ
AL-BURAJINAH CAMP IN BEIRUT. ON THE NIGHT OF JULY
22-23, SHIITE-PALESTINIAN TENSIONS ALSO SURFACED
IN TYRE, WHERE AMAL FORCES ENCIRCLED BASS REFUGEE
CAMP, FOLLOWING THE SHOOTING OF AN AMAL MILITIAMAN.


7. FACED WITH PERSISTENT SHIITE-PALESTINIAN AND
BROADER SHIITE-SUNNI TENSIONS IN VARIOUS AREAS OF
LEBANON, SYRIA APPEARS TO BE GOING TO CONSIDERABLE
LENGTHS TO PUSH ITS ALLIES --- BOTH LEBANESE AND
PALESTINIAN --- TO AVERT A REPETITION IN SIDON OF
A BEIRUT-STYLE "WAR OF THE CAMPS."


8. FOR EXAMPLE, IN THE FINAL COMMUNIQUE OF THE
SYRIAN-SPONSORED CONFERENCE OF JULY 8-9, LEBANESE
MUSLIM LEADERS DECLARED THEY WOULD NOT TOLERATE
THE REESTABLISHMENT OF THE PRE-1982 SITUATION IN
LEBANON, WHEN THE PLO WAS VIRTUALLY A STATE WITHIN
A STATE. THEY SPECIFICALLY SAID THEY WOULD NOT
ALLOW THE "SEDITION" WHICH HAD PREVAILED IN BEIRUT
AND ITS PALESTINIAN CAMPS TO EXTEND TO SIDON.


9. IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE DAMASCUS CONFERENCE,
AND REPORTEDLY WITH SYRIAN VICE PRESIDENT
KHADDAM'S BACKING, PRO-SYRIAN PARTIES ANNOUNCED A
PLAN TO FORM A "NATIONAL ALLIANCE FRONT," ONE OF
WHOSE OBJECTIVES WOULD BE TO AVOID FRICTIONS IN
SIDON. THE FRONT WOULD INCLUDE, INTER ALIA, NABIH
BARRI'S AMAL MOVEMENT, WALID JUMBLATT'S "NATIONAL
DEMOCRATIC FRONT," AND THE "NATIONAL POLITICAL
COUNCIL" OF SIDON, WHICH IS CHAIRED BY NAZIH BIZRI
AND INCLUDES MUSTAFA SA'AD'S "POPULAR NASSERITE
ORGANIZATION."


10. CONCOMITANTLY, SYRIA HAS REPORTEDLY BEEN
TRYING TO ACHIEVE RECONCILIATION BETWEEN THE AMAL
AND THE PNSF. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, KHADDAM
ARRANGED A MEETING IN DAMASCUS ON JULY 9 BETWEEN
BARRI AND PNSF LEADERS WHICH JUMBLATT ALSO
ATTENDED. ON JULY 12, THE MAIN PRO-SYRIAN GROUPS
IN SIDON --- AMAL, THE NATIONAL POLITICAL COUNCIL,
THE POPULAR NASSERITE ORGANIZATION, AND THE
ISLAMIC SOCIETY --- AND THE PNSF ISSUED A JOINT
STATEMENT GIVING ARAFAT'S SUPPORTERS IN SIDON ONE
WEEK TO LEAVE THE CITY. THE STATEMENT
SPECIFICALLY BRANDED FOUR INDIVIDUALS AS "SYMBOLS
OF ARAFAT'S CAPITULATIONIST POLICY": ABDEL AZIZ
ABU FADAH, RAJI AL NAJMAH, HUSSEIN AL HAIBI, AND
MOEMEN.


11. MOST RECENTLY, ON JULY 22-24, SYRIAN VICE
PRESIDENT KHADDAM HOSTED A LARGE MEETING OF
REPRESENTATIVES OF THE PNSF, THE NATIONAL
POLITICAL COUNCIL OF SIDON, AMAL, AND THE NATIONAL
DEMOCRATIC FRONT. ACCORDING TO BANNER REPORTS IN
THE BEIRUT PRESS, THIS DAMASCUS MEETING RESULTED
IN THE APPROVAL OF A PNSF PROPOSAL TO FORM A MIXED
COMMITTEE TO "REDEFINE ON PAPER" LEBANESE-
PALESTINIAN RELATIONS. AS FOR SIDON ITSELF, THE
CONFEREES ADOPTED A RESOLUTION CALLING FOR (A) THE
WITHDRAWAL OF ALL ARMED PALESTINIAN ELEMENTS FROM
THE CITY AND A PROMISE NOT TO ORGANIZE NIGHT
PATROLS IN THE SUBURBS; (B) THE WITHDRAWAL OF AMAL
MILITIAMEN FROM THE SECTOR EXTENDING FROM RMAYLAH
TO THE NORTHERN ENTRANCE OF SIDON; (C) THE NDF TO
TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR MAINTAINING ORDER IN THE
CITY AND CONTROLING ACCESS ROADS, UNDER THE
SUPERVISION OF THREE SYRIAN ARMY OFFICERS; AND
(D) A "POLITICAL CONTROL COMMISSION" CHAIRED BY
KHALID JUMBLATT AND COMPRISING NAZIH BIZRI, ANWAR
FATAYRI, INAAM RAAD, AND USSAMA SA'AD.


12. THE MAJOR QUESTION WHICH REMAINS UNANSWERED
IS WHAT THE LINE-UP WILL BE WHEN AND IF SERIOUS
FIGHTING ERUPTS IN SIDON. AS NOTED ABOVE, SYRIA
IS APPARENTLY PUSHING HARD FOR ITS LEBANESE ALLIES
--- BE THEY SHIA, SUNNI, OR DRUZE --- AND THE PNSF
TO STAND FIRM AGAINST THE PRO-ARAFAT PALETINIANS.
WE AND MANY OBSERVERS HERE, HOWEVER, BELIEVE THAT
FIGHTING WOULD MOST LIKELY ERUPT BETWEEN AMAL AND
THE ARAFATISTS AND THAT THE PNSF FORCES WOULD
QUICKLY JOIN IN SUPPORT OF THEIR PALESTINIAN
BRETHREN AGAINST THE LEBANESE SHIA. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD MIRROR THAT OF THE "WAR OF THE CAMPS" IN
BEIRUT IN WHICH PRO AND ANTI-ARAFATISTS COMBINED
FORCES AGAINST THE SHIA.


13. THE ROLE OF THE SIDONESE SUNNI MILITIAS IS
LESS PREDICTABLE. WOULD THEY FIGHT AS LEBANESE,
I.E., WITH THE SHIA AGAINST THE PALESTINIANS?
WOULD THEY FIGHT AS SUNNI, I.E., WITH THE
PALESTINIANS AGAINST THE SHIA? OR WOULD THEY TRY
TO REMAIN NEUTRAL? WE AGREE WITH REFTEL THAT, FOR
NOW, BIZRI AND SA'AD HAVE PERHAPS SEIZED UPON AN
ANTI-ARAFATIST STANCE AS A LOW-COST WAY TO PLEASE
THE SYRIANS. ONCE FIGHTING BEGINS, HOWEVER, WE
ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN THAT THE SUNNI WILL CONTINUE
THIS LINE. SHIITE-SUNNI TENSIONS IN SIDON, AS IN
WEST BEIRUT, RUN HIGH, AND WE RECALL THAT DURING
THE "WAR OF THE CAMPS" THE REMNANTS OF THE SUNNI
MURABITUN MILITIA JOINED WITH THE PALESTINIANS TO
MAKE NIGHTTIME RAIDS ON AMAL AND PREDOMINANTLY
SHIITE LAF 6TH BRIGADE POSITIONS.


14. THE PSP REMAINS ANOTHER WILD CARD. AS THE
"WAR OF THE CAMPS" IN BEIRUT PROCEEDED, THE
DRUZE-SHIA ALLIANCE BECAME INCREASINGLY STRAINED,
AND, AS FIGHTING IN WEST BEIRUT EARLIER THIS MONTH
DEMONSTRATED, TENSION BETWEEN AMAL AND THE PSP
CONTINUES TO RUN VERY HIGH. AN ADDITIONAL
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT ABOUT TWO THOUSAND
SUNNI MILITIAMEN HAVE REPORTEDLY JOINED THE PSP
SINCE THE DEFEAT OF THE MURABITUN MILITIA IN APRIL.


15. FACED WITH THE PROSPECT THAT THE SUPPOSEDLY
PRO-SYRIAN PNSF, POPULAR NASSERITE ORGANIZATION,
AND PSP MAY, IN FACT, SIDE WITH THE PRO-ARAFAT
PALESTINIANS OR AT LEAST AGAINST AMAL, SYRIA HAS
REPORTEDLY BEGUN TO REINFORCE THE AMAL MILITIA
WITH ADDITIONAL EQUIPMENT AND TRAINING (SEE DATT
SEPTEL). DURING THE APRIL 16-17 "BATTLE OF
BEIRUT" AND THEN THE "WAR OF THE CAMPS," THE AMAL
MILITIA'S WEAKNESSES AND LIMITATIONS WERE
EXPOSED. SYRIA IS NOW APPARENTLY TRYING TO
BOLSTER THE STRENGTH OF ITS MOST RELIABLE ALLY.


LYNE