SOUTH LEBANON: THE ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 02370

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV PREL LE
SUBJECT: SOUTH LEBANON: THE ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL
CONTINUES WHILE NEW EFFORTS ARE MADE TO BRING PEACE
TO SIDON

REFS: (A) BEIRUT 2330, (B) TEL AVIV 6070


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. ISRAEL REPORTEDLY CONTINUES CONTACTS AIMED AT
USING INDIGENOUS FORCES TO MAINTAIN BORDER SECURITY
AFTER THE JUNE 1 WITHDRAWAL OF ISRAELI TROOPS.
ACCORDING TO LOCAL PRESS, THE ISRAELIS HAVE REACHED
A COMPROMISE WITH THE DRUZE OF THE HASBAYA REGION
WHEREBY THE DRUZE INHABITANTS WILL FORM A
"CIVIL GUARD," BUT WILL NOT HAVE DIRECT TIES TO THE
ASL OR ANY OTHER ISRAELI-BACKED ORGANIZATION. IF
THESE REPORTS ARE TRUE, THIS DEAL REPRESENTS A VICTORY
FOR THE LOCAL DRUZE WHO HAVE ALLEGEDLY BEEN RESISTING
ISRAELI PRESSURE (WHICH INCLUDED A BLOCKADE OF THE
VILLAGES OF AKA KAMA AND MIMAS) TO RECRUIT THEM INTO
THE ASL.


3. IN THE JAZZIN AREA, LOCAL PRESS REPORTS THAT
EFFORTS ARE UNDERWAY TO ESTABLISH A 300-400 MAN
CHRISTIAN FORCE INDEPENDENT OF THE ASL. THESE
REPORTS SUPPORT OTHER INFORMATION THE EMBASSY HAS
RECEIVED CONCERNING A DEAL ALLEGEDLY STRUCK BETWEEN
WALID JUMBLATT AND THE CHRISTIANS OF JAZZIN CONCERNING
SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS FOR JAZZIN AND THE IQLIM
AL-KHARRUB. DETAILS WERE REPORTEDLY HAMMERED OUT AT
A MEETING HELD LAST WEEK IN MUKHTARA ATTENDED BY
JUMBLATT, JEAN AZIZ, JAZZIN DEPUTY EDMOND RIZK, AND
AN UNIDENTIFIED ISRAELI OFFICER. AT THIS MEETING,
JUMBLATT REPORTEDLY ACCEPTED THE FORMATION OF THIS
CHRISTIAN FORCE, PROVIDED IT HAD NO OVERT CONNECTION
WITH THE ASL; HE ALSO APPARENTLY SAID HE WOULD NOT
ATTACK THE CHRISTIANS OF THE JAZZIN AREA OR THE
IQLIM AL-KHARRUB AND OFFERED TO OPEN THE CHUF ROAD TO
CHRISTIAN TRAFFIC IF THE COASTAL ROADS WERE CLOSED TO
THEM. IN RETURN, JUMBLATT ASKED FOR AN OPEN ROAD
FROM THE CHUF TO THE DRUZE VILLAGES OF HASBAYA AND
ROSHAYYA IN THE SOUTH, AND REMOVAL OF LF ELEMENTS
FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA.


4. IN SIDON, THE TWO AXES OF CONFRONTATION REMAINED
ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. ONE FRONT PITS LF FIGHTERS
IN THE VILLAGES OF ABRA, HLALIYAH, AND QAYYA
(SOUTHEAST OF SIDON) AGAINST SUNNI AND PALESTINIAN
MILITIAMEN SUPPORTED BY THE LAF'S SUNNI TAWEED 98TH
BRIGADE FROM TRIPOLI LOCATED ON THE HILL OF MAR ELIAS.
ON THE OTHER FRONT, ALSO LOCATED IN THE EASTERN
SUBURBS, LF MILITIAMEN BASED IN THE VILLAGES OF
MIYAH MIYAH, MAGHDUSHEH, AND DARB AL-SIM CONFRONT THE
PALESTINIAN CAMPS OF MIYAH MIYAH AND AYN AL-HILWAH.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOR THE FIRST TIME, 155 MM
SHELLS FELL ON THE LAF'S ZGHAYB BARRACKS IN CENTRAL
SIDON. LOCAL PRESS REPORTS CASUALTY FIGURES AS
HIGH AS 26 KILLED AND WOUNDED IN WEEKEND FIGHTING.


5. ON THE POLITICAL FRONT, SIDON DEPUTY NAZIH BIZRI,
CLAIMING TO HAVE LOST ANY HOPE FOR LAF REINFORCEMENT
OR LF WITHDRAWAL, CALLED APRIL 19 ON THE
CITIZENS OF SIDON TO TAKE UP ARMS IN THEIR OWN
DEFENSE. USAMA SAAD, VP OF THE "NASSERITE POPULAR
ORGANIZATION," WHO HAD ACCOMPANIED BIZRI TO DAMASCUS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK, ALSO CALLED UPON THE AREA'S
CHRISTIAN VILLAGERS "TO FORCE THE LF FROM THEIR
VILLAGES SO THEY DON'T BECOME THE TARGETS OF A
MILITARY SOLUTION."


6. IN CONTRAST TO THE INFLAMMATORY RHETORIC EMANATING
FROM SIDON'S MUSLIMS, THE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY SEEMS
INTENT ON DAMPING DOWN THE LEVEL OF TENSION.
FOLLOWING A VISIT TO ISRAEL (REF B) DURING WHICH
HE WAS REPORTEDLY WARNED BY THE ISRAELIS NOT TO
MAKE TROUBLE IN SIDON, AND AFTER A WEEKEND OF
CONSULTATIONS WITH FORMER PRESIDENT CAMILLE CHAMOUN,
SAMIR JA'JA' HELD A MORNING PRESS CONFERENCE ON
APRIL 22 TO ANNOUNCE LF MEASURES AIMED AT DEFUSING THE
CRISIS. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE TEXT OF JA'JA'S
STATEMENT, WE UNDERSTAND THESE TO INCLUDE:

-- A. A UNILATERAL CEASEFIRE EFFECTIVE 1600 LOCAL
TIME ON APRIL 22;

-- B. A WITHDRAWAL OF NON-INDIGENOUS LF FORCES FROM
THE SIDON AREA BEGINNING 1100 LOCAL TIME ON APRIL 23.
THIS WITHDRAWAL IS IN ORDER TO "GIVE THE CENTRAL
GOVERNMENT A CHANCE TO UNDERTAKE ITS RESPONSIBILITIES."
(MILITIAMEN NATIVE TO THE AREA WILL REMAIN);

-- C. A CALL FOR THE PRESIDENT, PM, GOVERNMENT, AND
LAF COMMAND TO ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR SECURITY
VIOLATIONS.

JA'JA' FURTHER STATED HIS HOPE THAT THESE MEASURES
WOULD CONSTITUTE A FIRST STEP TOWARD A SETTLEMENT
AND CALL FORTH PEACE INITIATIVES FROM THE OTHER
PARTIES INVOLVED. HE INVITED JOURNALISTS TO WITNESS
TOMORROW'S WITHDRAWAL.


7. ON THE MILITARY LEVEL, THE QUADRIPARTITE MILITARY
COMMISSION IS REPORTED BY THE PRESS TO BE WORKING
FOR THE DEPLOYMENT OF AN ADDITIONAL LAF UNIT TO
SIDON. NO DETAILS OF ARMAMENT OR CONFESSIONAL
COMPOSITION ARE AVAILABLE. IN ANY EVENT, PAST HISTORY
INDICATES THAT IT CANNOT BE DEPLOYED IN THE ABSENCE
OF A PRIOR POLITICAL AGREEMENT.


8. ONE USUALLY WELL INFORMED LOCAL PRESS SOURCE TELLS
US THAT SYRIA IS TRYING TO PUT IN PLACE A SCENARIO
WHEREBY SUNNIS OF SIDON CAN CLAIM VICTORY OVER THE LF
AS A SOP FOR RECENT SUNNI LOSSES IN WEST BEIRUT. THE
PRICE OF SUCH A DEAL, HOWEVER, IS ALLEGED TO BE
RENUNCIATION BY SUNNIS OF THEIR LINKS WITH PRO-ARAFAT
PLO PALESTINIANS AND ACCEPTANCE OF RELIANCE UPON DRUZE
AND ABU MUSA PALESTINIANS IN THEIR STEAD. THE ALTERNA-
TIVE, ACCORDING TO THIS SOURCE, IS FOR DRUZE, ABU MUSA
MILITIA, AND AMAL TO ADMINISTER THE SAME LESSON IN
SIDON THAT THEY DID IN WEST BEIRUT.


9. IN TYRE, ISRAELI FORCES CONTINUE THEIR
PREPARATIONS FOR WITHDRAWAL. IDF SPOKESMEN HAVE
ANNOUNCED A WITHDRAWAL DATE OF APRIL 24, BUT ACTIVITIES
ON THE GROUND INDICATE IT MAY OCCUR UP TO 24 HOURS
EARLIER. ALL BUILDINGS AND INSTALLATIONS OF
POTENTIAL USE TO THE RESISTANCE ARE BEING DYNAMITED,
THERE IS AS YET NO WORD ON POSSIBLE LAF DEPLOYMENT
AFTER THE ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL.

BARTHOLOMEW