LEBANESE FORCES FINANCES

S E C R E T BEIRUT 02048

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV ECON LE
SUBJECT: LEBANESE FORCES FINANCES


1. S-ENTIRE TEXT.


2. LEBANESE FORCES OFFICIAL WHO REMAINS LOYAL TO DEPOSED
CHIEF FUAD ABU NADER CONTENDS THAT PART OF REBEL LEADER
JA'JA'S APPEAL TO RANK AND FILE IS HIS PROMISES THAT
ECONOMY MOVES INTRODUCED BY ABU NADER WOULD END. HE
OBSERVES, HOWEVER, THAT PROMISES WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR
JA'JA' TO KEEP.


3. ACCORDING TO THIS OFFICIAL, LF OPERATING EXPENSES
ALONE AMOUNT TO 26 MILLION POUNDS A MONTH, MOSTLY
STRAIGHT SALARY PAYMENTS. THIS FIGURE PROVIDED NOTHING
FOR AMMUNITION REPLACEMENT (BADLY NEEDED),SPARE PARTS
FOR EQUIPMENT (BADLY NEEDED -- ACCORDING TO OFFICIAL LF
TANKS COULDN'T MOVE INTO ACTION NOW WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
REPAIR),UNIFORMS,TRAINING, ETC.


4. OFFICIAL SAID INCOME SIDE WILL PRESENT JA'JA' WITH
DIFFICULT PROBLEM, BEFORE UPRISING, OFFICIAL SAID,INCOME


5. OFFICIAL NOTED THAT LF HAD RE-OPENED NIGHT OPERATIONS
AT FIFTH BASIN AT BEIRUT PORT TWELVE DAYS BEFORE UPRISING
BECAUSE OF NEED FOR FUNDS, SO JA'JA' WILL CONTINUE TO
BENEFIT FROM THIS SOURCE. ON OTHER HAND, HE SAID, WITH
SYRIANS OPENING ROADBLOCK AT MADFOUN BRIDGE, LF REVENUES
FROM BARBARA CHECKPOINT HAVE DISAPPEARED; HE OPINED THAT
JA'JA' MIGHT GO AS FAR AS TO OFFER UP CLOSING OF
BARBARAH CHECKPOINT AS PEACE OFFERING TO SYRIA NOW THAT
SYRIAN ACTION HAS MADE IT FINANCIALLY IRRELEVANT. EVEN
ASSUMING LF TIGHTENS UP TAXATION IN AREAS UNDER ITS
CONTROL AND PERHAPS EXPAND FIFTH BASIN OPERATIONS, IT
WILL STILL LEAVE THEM, HE ESTIMATED, MINIMUM OF 6
MILLION POUNDS SHORT EACH MONTH.


6. OFFICIAL OBSERVED THAT EFFECTIVENESS OF DEA OPERATIONS
MADE EXPORTATION OF HASHISH AN UNPROFITABLE OPTION.


7. ANOTHER OPTION WOULD BE CONTRIBUTIONS BY KEY LF
REBEL FINANCIAL ANGELS; HE MENTIONED SPECIFICALLY PIERRE
ASHKAR AND MICHEL MURR BUT HE QUESTIONED HOW LONG THEY
WOULD WANT TO PICK UP THE DIFFERENCE. REMAINING OPTION
WOULD BE ONE LF WAS MOVING TOWARD BEFORE UPRISING:
COMBINATION OF ECONOMY MOVES AND OF SELLING MILITARY
RESOURCES ON CIVILIAN ECONOMY. MOVES IN THAT DIRECTION
HAD BEGUN PRIOR TO MARCH 12 UPRISING, SPECIFICALLY
IN COMPUTER AREA, WHERE OFFICIAL SAID LF HAS MOST
SOPHISTICATED OPERATION IN COUNTRY; AND IN VEHICLE
MAINTENANCE.


BARTHOLOMEW