DETERIORATING SITUATION IN SOUTH LEBANON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 01997

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV PREL SREF IS LE SY
SUBJECT: DETERIORATING SITUATION IN SOUTH LEBANON

REF: BEIRUT 1974


1. (C) SUMMARY. ON APRIL 1, FIGHTING CONTINUED
BETWEEN LF, LAF, AND PALESTINIAN FORCES IN SIDON.
CASUALTIES WERE LOWER, BUT THE EXODUS OF CIVILIANS
CONTINUED. VISITING SYRIAN MILITARY INTELLIGENCE
CHIEF KHOLI REPORTEDLY PROMISED SYRIAN MILITARY
SUPPLIES FOR USE BY THE LAF IN THE SOUTH, AND LAF
COMMANDER AOUN TRAVELED TO DAMASCUS TO WORK OUT
THE DETAILS. RECENTLY DELIVERED, U.S.-ORIGIN
APC'S ARE ALSO TO BE SENT TO SIDON TO REINFORCE
LAF UNITS THERE. END SUMMARY.

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FIGHTING IN SIDON
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2. (U) ON MORNING OF APRIL 1, FIGHTING CONTINUED
IN THE SIDON AREA BETWEEN LF MILITIAMEN AND
PALESTINIAN FORCES AND THEIR ALLIES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AYN AL-HILWAH AND MIYAH MIYAH
REFUGEE CAMPS. FIGHTING ALSO ERUPTED AGAIN
BETWEEN THE LF AND LAF ALONG THE KAYAHA/KANAYA/MAR
ELIAS FRONT. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, THE
SHELLING SPREAD TO OTHER AREAS OF SIDON INCLUDING
THE PORT, WHICH BECAME THE TARGET OF LF SHELLING
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE RECENT FIGHTING. THESE
SAME UNCONFIRMED REPORTS INDICATED THAT AN ISRAELI
NAVAL VESSEL APPEARED OFF THE COAST OF SIDON AND
FIRED AT LEAST ONE SHELL ON AYN AL-HILWAH.


3. (U) FOLLOWING A LULL IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
FIGHTING AGAIN ERUPTED AT ABOUT 1700 HOURS,
REPORTEDLY WITH LF TANK POSITIONS OVERLOOKING THE
CITY SHELLING THE REFUGEE CAMPS, DOWNTOWN SIDON,
HAY TAAMIR, AND LAF POSITIONS ON MAR ELIAS HILL
NORTHEAST OF THE CITY.


4. (U) INITIAL CASUALTY FIGURES INDICATE TWO
DEATHS AND TEN INJURIES, I.E., CONSIDERABLY LESS
THAN THE CASUALTY TOLL OVER THE MARCH 30-31
WEEKEND.

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REFUGEE FLOWS
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5. (U) AN UNWRA SOURCE QUOTED IN THE BEIRUT PRESS
PROVIDED DETAILED FIGURES ON THE OUTFLOW OF
PALESTINIAN REFUGEES FROM THE AYN AL-HILWAH AND
MIYAH MIYAH CAMPS IN SIDON TO UNWRA CAMPS
ELSEWHERE IN LEBANON. OF A TOTAL OF 215 FAMILIES
FLEEING SIDON, 187 HAVE COME TO CAMPS IN THE
BEIRUT AREA, OF WHICH 76 TO SHATILA, 108 TO BURJ
BRAJNAH, AND THREE TO MAR ELIAS. THE TWENTY-EIGHT
OTHER REFUGEE FAMILIES MOVED TO CAMPS AROUND
TRIPOLI. IN ADDITION, AN UNDETERMINED NUMBER OF
REFUGEES HAVE RESETTLED IN THE RAWCHAH AND AYN
MURAYSA NEIGHBORHOODS OF WEST BEIRUT. THE UNWRA
SOURCE PLACED THE NUMBER OF PALESTINIAN CASUALTIES
IN SIDON SINCE MARCH 29 AT THIRTY-ONE KILLED AND
ABOUT 100 INJURED.

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KHOLI VISIT; MILITARY SUPPLIES FOR SOUTH
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6. (U) ON APRIL 1, SARG PRESIDENT ASSAD
DISPATCHED SYRIAN MILITARY INTELLIGENCE CHIEF
MAJOR GENERAL MUHAMMAD KHOLI TO BEIRUT TO MEET
WITH PRESIDENT GEMAYEL AND OTHER SENIOR GOL
OFFICIALS. PRESS REPORTS INDICATE THAT IN A
LETTER CARRIED BY KHOLI, ASSAD LINKED THE
DETERIORATING SITUATION AROUND SIDON WITH
"PARTITIONIST PROJECTS" ALLEGEDLY UNDERTAKEN BY LF
LEADER JA'JA' WITH ISRAELI BACKING. ACCORDING TO
THESE REPORTS, ASSAD AGREED TO PROVIDE LEBANON
WITH UNSPECIFIED ARMS AND OTHER MILITARY SUPPLIES
FOR USE AROUND SIDON.


7. (U) LATER ON APRIL 1, GENERAL MICHEL AOUN MADE
A HASTY TRIP TO DAMASCUS, HIS FIRST SINCE BECOMING
LAF COMMANDER IN CHIEF IN JULY 1984. HE MET THERE
WITH SYRIAN ARMY CHIEF OF STAFF HIKMAT SHIHABI AND
DEFENSE MINISTER TLASS, REPORTEDLY TO WORK OUT THE
DETAILS OF THE SYRIAN ARMS SUPPLIES.


8. (C) ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS CONFIRMED BY
OMC, THE LAF PLANS TO REINFORCE ITS PRESENCE IN
SIDON WITH TWENTY-EIGHT OF THE THIRTY RECENTLY
DELIVERED, U.S.-ORIGIN M113 ARMORED PERSONNEL
CARRIERS. THERE ARE UNCONFIRMED REPORTS THAT THE
LAF WILL ALSO SEND TO SIDON A BATALLION OF THE 1ST
BRIGADE PRESENTLY STATIONED IN THE BIQA'.

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MUSLIM REACTIONS
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9. (U) MUSLIM RELIGIOUS AND POLITICAL LEADERS HAVE
ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY ACCUSED THE CHRISTIAN LF
MILITIA OF PROVOKING THE FIGHTING IN SIDON AT
ISRAEL'S INSTIGATION AS PART OF AN ALLEGED SCHEME
TO PARTITION LEBANON INTO SECTARIAN MINI-STATES.


10. (U) ON APRIL 1, SUNNI RELIGIOUS AND POLITICAL
LEADERS INCLUDING EDUCATION MINISTER SALIM AL-HUSS
MET AT DAR AL-FATWA, THE SEAT OF THE SUNNI MUFTI
OF THE REPUBLIC, TO DISCUSS THE SITUATION IN
SIDON. THEY ISSUED A STATEMENT WHICH (A) URGED
THE GOL TO HONOR ITS POLITICAL COMMITMENT TO
REINFORCE, WITH ADDITIONAL MEN AND EQUIPMENT, LAF
UNITS IN SIDON AND ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTH; (B)
REQUESTED THE GOL TO MOBILIZE ALL FORCES TO HALT
THE MASSACRES IN SIDON, ITS EASTERN SUBURBS, AND
THE REFUGEE CAMPS; (C) WARNED AGAINST THE SPREAD
OF VIOLENCE TO THE IQLIM AL-KHARRUB, THE WESTERN
BIQA', AND RASHAYA, AND TO THE COUNTRY AT LARGE;
AND (D) URGED ALL LEBANESE POLITICAL AND FACTIONAL
LEADERS TO "ADOPT A RESPONSIBLE HISTORIC STAND
THAT WILL CHECK THE GROUP INVOLVED IN THE ISRAELI
CONSPIRATORIAL AND PARTITIONIST DESIGN."


10. (U) SHIITE AMAL LEADER NABIH BARRI REJECTED
RECENT PROPOSALS FOR A NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE
SOUTH, STATING THAT SUCH A CONFERENCE WOULD ONLY
"COVER THE (GOL'S) FAILURES AND INACTION." BARRI
CLAIMED THAT THE LF-LAF CLASHES WOULD NEVER HAVE
OCCURRED IF THE (PREDOMINANTLY MUSLIM) LAF UNITS
IN THE SOUTH HAD BEEN REINFORCED AS AGREED.

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CHRISTIAN REACTION
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11. (U) FOLLOWING THE APRIL 1 MEETING OF THE
LEBANESE FORCES "EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE," KARIM
PAKRADUNI ACCUSED ISRAEL OF INCITING VIOLENCE
AMONG LOCAL MILITIAS IN SIDON IN ORDER TO DIVERT
THEIR ENERGIES AND THEREBY ENSURE ITS OWN
SECURITY. AT THE SAME TIME, HE ACCUSED THE
PALESTINIANS OF PROVOKING COMMUNAL DISCORD IN
SIDON IN ORDER TO REESTABLISH THEIR HEGEMONY IN
SOUTH LEBANON. THE SOUTH, HE SAID, IS THE LAST
PART OF THE COUNTRY WHERE THE PALESTINIANS CAN ACT
FOLLOWING THEIR LOSSES IN BEIRUT AND TRIPOLI.


12. (U) PAKRADUNI STATED THAT THE LF HAD PROPOSED
A PLAN TO CREATE A WIDE NO MAN'S LAND BETWEEN THE
COMPETING FORCES IN SIDON, THEREBY ENDING
HOSTILITIES, PREVENTING THE INVASION OR
INFILTRATION OF ANY GROUP, AND AVOIDING THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A NARROW DEMARCATION LINE SIMILAR
TO THE "GREEN-LINE" BETWEEN EAST AND WEST BEIRUT.
TO BUTTRESS THIS MILITARY PLAN POLITICALLY,
PAKRADUNI CALLED FOR A MEETING OF SIDON'S
POLITICAL AND RELIGIOUS LEADERS AND ALL THE
PROTAGONISTS CURRENTLY ENGAGED IN THE CONFLICT.


13. (U) MEANWHILE, FORMER PRESIDENT CAMILLE
CHAMOUN STATED THAT ONLY THE LAF CAN ENSURE THE
SECURITY OF SIDON, SINCE IT IS "THE ONLY FORCE
WHICH ENJOYS THE CONFIDENCE OF ALL THE INHABITANTS
OF THE REGION."

LYNE