FURTHER DETERIORATION IN SOUTH LEBANON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 01974

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV PREL IS LE SY US
SUBJECT: FURTHER DETERIORATION IN SOUTH LEBANON

REF: BEIRUT 1961


1. (U) SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION. HEAVY FIGHTING
IN THE SIDON AREA CONTINUED ON MARCH 30-31 CAUSING
NUMEROUS CASUALTIES. ACCORDING TO MOST REPORTS
REACHING BEIRUT, THE FIGHTING, WHICH FOLLOWS
RECENT LF-LAF CLASHES IN THE AREA (REFTEL),
INCLUDED THE STRONG, DIRECT INVOLVEMENT OF ARMED
PALESTINIAN ELEMENTS FOR THE FIRST TIME.


2. (U) WIDELY PORTRAYED HERE AS PART OF AN
ISRAELI PLAN TO REDISTRIBUTE THE POPULATION OF
SOUTH LEBANON AND TO FORM A PREDOMINANTLY
CHRISTIAN BORDER SECURITY STRIP, THE CLASHES IN
SIDON HAVE PREOCCUPIED LEBANESE GOVERNMENTAL,
POLITICAL, AND RELIGIOUS LEADERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. PRIME MINISTER KARAMI CALLED INDIRECTLY
ON THE U.S. TO USE ITS INFLUENCE TO HALT THE
ALLEGED ISRAELI PLAN. SYRIAN MILITARY
INTELLIGENCE CHIEF GENERAL KHOLI IS EXPECTED IN
BEIRUT TODAY, APRIL 1, TO DISCUSS RECENT POLITICAL
AND SECURITY DEVELOPMENTS WITH PRESIDENT GEMAYEL.
END SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION.


2. (U) FIGHTING INTENSIFIED IN THE SIDON AREA ON
MARCH 30-31 BETWEEN LF MILITIAMEN AND LAF UNITS.
ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, HOWEVER, THE LAF'S
ROLE WAS ECLIPSED WHEN PALESTINIAN UNITS BASED IN
THE REFUGEE CAMPS TOOK A STRONG, ACTIVE ROLE IN
THE FIGHTING AGAINST THE LF.


3. U) ON MARCH 30, THE LF REPORTEDLY BEGAN
HEAVY, ALMOST CONTINUOUS SHELLING OF THE REFUGEE
CAMPS AT AYN AL-HILWAH AND MIYAH MIYAH AND OF
OTHER RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN SIDON. PRO-ARAFAT
PALESTINIAN FORCES, BACKED BY OTHER MUSLIM
MILITIAS, RESPONDED AND HEAVY FIGHTING ENSUED.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, CLASHES BETWEEN THE LF AND LAF
WERE REPORTED ALONG A LINE INCLUDING KANAYA,
KAHAYA, HLALIYAH, AND BRAMIYAH. THERE ARE ALSO
REPORTS OF AMAL UNITS TAKING PART IN THE FIGHTING
IN SIDON, BUT WE HAVE NO DETAILED INFORMATION.
THE MARCH 30 CASUALTY TOLL AMOUNTED TO
TWENTY-EIGHT KILLED AND FORTY WOUNDED, MOSTLY
CIVILIANS.


4. (U) ON MARCH 31, THE FIGHTING CONTINUED, WITH
THE MOST INTENSIVE ACTION CENTERED AROUND THE AYN
AL-HILWAH REFUGEE CAMP. ACCORDING TO FOREIGN
CORRESPONDENTS CITED IN THE LOCAL PRESS, THE CAMP
CAME UNDER HEAVY SHELLING FROM LF ARTILLERY
POSITIONS NEAR JEZZIN. HEAVY FIGHTING WAS ALSO
REPORTED BETWEEN LF UNITS AND LAF POSITONS ON MAR
ELIAS HILL. THE MARCH 31 CASUALTY TOLL AMOUNTED TO
FIVE KILLED AND FIFTEEN WOUNDED. THERE ARE
UNCONFIRMED REPORTS OF PALESTINIAN CIVILIANS
FLEEING THE CAMPS FOR SIDON ITSELF AND OF SUNNI
AND CHRISTIAN RESIDENTS OF SIDON MOVING NORTHWARD
TO BEIRUT.


5. (U) ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTH, ISRAELI UNITS
REPORTEDLY CROSSED BACK INTO PREVIOUSLY EVACUATED
TERRITORY FOR THE SIXTH TIME AS PART OF A DRAGNET
OPERATION IN THE IQLIM AL-TIFFAH REGION SOUTH OF
SIDON. LENGTHY LOCAL PRESS REPORTS INDICATE
TWENTY-THREE PERSONS KILLED AND FORTY-FIVE PERSONS
WOUNDED, MOSTLY IN THE VILLAGE OF JBAA.


6. (LOU) IN THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT FIGHTING
OVER THE WEEKEND, LAF UNITS EXCHANGED ARTILLERY
FIRE WITH PSP MILITIAMEN ON MARCH 30 ALONG THE SUQ
AL-GHARB/AYTAT RIDGELINE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF
BEIRUT. TWO LAF SOLDIERS WERE REPORTEDLY KILLED.
WHEN THE SHELLING SPILLED OVER ONTO THE
EAST-BEIRUT RESIDENTIAL AREAS OF BAABDA,
HAZIMIYAH, AND MKALLAS, SEVERAL SHELLS HIT JUST
OUTSIDE THE PERIMETER OF THE AMBASSADOR'S
RESIDENCE AT YARZE. EMBASSY PERSONNEL HAD ALREADY
TAKEN REFUGE IN THE SHELTER.


7. (U) EFFORTS TO HALT THE DETERIORATION OF THE
SITUATION IN SOUTH LEBANON PREOCCUPIED LEBANESE
GOVERNMENTAL, POLITICAL, AND RELIGIOUS LEADERS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. ACCORDING TO PRESS
REPORTS, FOLLOWING A MEETING ON MARCH 30,
PRESIDENT GEMAYEL, PRIME MINISTER KARAMI, AND
SENIOR LAF OFFICERS DECIDED TO REINFORCE LEBANESE
ARMY UNITS IN THE SOUTH, IN PART WITH EQUIPMENT
NOW BEING DELIVERED FROM THE U.S. MINISTERS HOSS
AND BARRI, WHO TRAVELED TO DAMASCUS MARCH 31 TO
MEET WITH SARG VICE PRESIDENT KHADDAM AND DRUZE
LEADER JUMBLATT, HAVE DEMANDED SUCH A
REINFORCEMENT OF LAF UNITS IN THE SOUTH FOR
SEVERAL WEEKS.


8. (U) FOLLOWING THE MARCH 30 MEETING, PRIME
MINISTER KARAMI ACCUSED ISRAEL OF PROVOKING THE
VIOLENCE IN SIDON "IN THE HOPE OF OBTAINING A NEW
DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION (ON A CONFESSIONAL
BASIS) AND EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING A BUFFER ZONE
(ALONG THE BORDER STRIP)." STATING THAT THE
SITUATION IN THE SOUTH MUST BE UNDERSTOOD IN THE
REGIONAL CONTEXT, KARAMI SAID THAT THE GOL WOULD
UNDERTAKE CONTACTS WITH OTHER GOVERNMENTS WHICH
HAVE INFLUENCE IN THE REGION.


9. (U) NOTING THAT "THE UNITED STATES IN
PARTICULAR CAN ACT TO CLEAN UP THE SITUATION,"
KARAMI ADDED THAT THE GOL HAD NOT/NOT BEEN
INFORMED OF A VISIT TO LEBANON BY ASSISTANT
SECRETARY MURPHY DURING THE LATTER'S FORTHCOMING
TRIP TO THE MIDDLE EAST.


10. (U) SHIITE AMAL LEADER NABIH BARRI DENOUNCED
THE INTENSIFICATION OF FIGHTING IN SIDON IN
ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WORDS AS KARAMI. "ISRAEL,"
HE SAID, "AIMS AT PROVOKING A NEW DEMOGRAPHIC
REDISTRIBUTION AND TO RESHAPE ITS FRONTIER WITH
LEBANON SO THAT THE CHRISTIANS IN SIDON AND JEZZIN
ARE MOVED TO THE BORDER ZONE AND THAT THE MUSLIMS,
MORE PRECISELY THE SHIITES, ARE FORCED BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR OF LEBANON." "IT IS IN THIS
CONTEXT," BARRI ADDED, "THAT ONE CAN UNDERSTAND
THE RECENT EVENTS IN SIDON AND ORDERS WHICH WERE
GIVEN TO THE 'INTIFADA' (I.E., JA'JA'S CHRISTIAN
DECISION MOVEMENT)..."


11. (U) IN A MARCH 31 TELEPHONE CONVERSATION WITH
SARG PRESIDENT ASSAD, PRESIDENT GEMAYEL AGREED TO
RECEIVE A SYRIAN ENVOY TO DISCUSS THE SITUATION IN
SIDON AS WELL AS RECENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
WITHIN THE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY. SYRIAN MILITARY
INTELLIGENCE CHIEF GENERAL KHOLI IS EXPECTED TO
MEET WITH GEMAYEL TODAY, APRIL 1.


12. (C) COMMENT. THE CONTRADICTORY AND
TENDENTIOUS REPORTS REACHING BEIRUT ABOUT THE
FIGHTING IN SIDON ARE DIFFICULT TO UNRAVEL AND
EVALUATE. PALESTINIAN UNITS DO APPEAR TO BE
TAKING AN ACTIVE PART IN THE CLASHES. IN SHORT,
THE SITUATION IN THE SOUTH APPEARS TO BE
DETERIORATING, AS EVERYONE HAD FEARED, INTO A
HEIGHTENED LEBANESE/ISRAELI CONFLICT AND BITTER
INTERCOMMUNAL CLASHES WITH PALESTINIAN
INVOLVEMENT.

LYNE