Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
85BEIRUT1952
1985-03-30 08:31:00
SECRET
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:  

JA'JA'-PHALANGE STALEMATE DRAGGING OUT

Tags:  PGOV LE 
pdf how-to read a cable
R 300831Z MAR 85
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2440
INFO AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS
EUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
S E C R E T BEIRUT 01952 

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV LE
SUBJECT: JA'JA'-PHALANGE STALEMATE DRAGGING OUT

S E C R E T BEIRUT 01952

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV LE
SUBJECT: JA'JA'-PHALANGE STALEMATE DRAGGING OUT


1. S-ENTIRE TEXT.


2. PHALANGE POLITBURO MEMBER ALFRED MAHDI, WHO REMAINS
PERSONALLY CLOSE TU JA'JA', 29 MARCH PROVIDED CHARGE
WHAT WE SENSE IS ACCURATE WRAP-UP OF CURRENT STATE OF
PLAY BETWEEN JA'JA' FORCES AND PHALANGE.


3. MAHDI SAID CURRENT INTERMINABLE DISCUSSIONS ABOUT
REORGANIZED PHALANGE PARTY, ENLARGED LEBANESE FRONT, AND
NEW CHRISTIAN COUNCIL REPRESENT DESIRE OF BOTH CHRISTIAN
DECISION MOVEMENT (CDM) AND PHALANGE TO STRING OUT
NEGOTIATIONS.


4. PHALANGE SEES TIME AS BEING ON ITS SIDE AS IT ATTEMPT
TO EXPLOIT DISAFFECTION AND SPLITS IN CDM RESULTING FROM
GROWING AWARENESS OF LACK OF SPECIFIC REALISTIC POLICIES
AND OF DANGERS CDM HAS CREATED OF SYRIAN INTERVENTION
AND WEAKENED CHRISTIAN UNIT.


5. CDM SEES TIME ON ITS SIDE AS IT ATTEMPTS TO SEDUCE
REMAINING GEMAYEL BACKERS AMONG LF IN METN, TO REASSURE
SYRIANS WHILE OPENING UP DIRECT CONTACT WITH THEM
(NUMEROUS SOURCES REPORT HOBEIKA HAS REGULAR CONTACT
WITH RIFFAT),AND TO STRENGTHEN ITS APPEAL AT GRASSROOTS
LEVEL. (WITNESS JA'JA'S SFEECH TO STUDENTS BEIRUT).


6. MAHDI BELIEVES THAT TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR THIS
SPARRING AND STALLING AND THAT TWO SIDES MUST NOW BEGIN
TO GRAPPLE WITH REAL PROBLEMS AND SEEK GENUINE SOLUTIONS.
HE SAID THAT ALTHOUGH HE HAS NOT SEEN GEMAYEL SINCE
MARCH 14, HE BELIEVES GEMAYEL SHARES HIS VIEW THAT TWO
SIDES MUST SERIOUSLY PURSUE RESOLUTION OF THEIR
DIFFERENCES. IF NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE TO DRAG ON
UNCONCLUSIVELY, MAHDI SAID, ALL DANGERS PREDICTED BY
BOTH SIDES WILL COME TRUE -- SYRIAN INTERVENTION,
WEAKENED AND DIVIDED CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY, SHARP MUSLIM
REACTION, ETC. IN ADDITION, MAHDI SAID INCREASINGLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION IN SOUTH, CUTTING OFF OF NORTH, AND
DEGRADATION OF SECURITY IN WEST BEIRUT, CREATES BACKDROP
OF EVENTS WHICH REQUIRES THAT RESOLUTION OF THIS
INTERNAL CHRISTIAN QUARREL COME RAPIDLY.


7. COMMENT: MAHDI'S COMMENTS EXPLAIN IN PART LIMITED
PROGRESS MURR/HASHIM/PAKRADUNI COMMITTEE HAS MADE IN
LAST WEEK, AND OFFER LITTLE OPTIMISM FOR NEAR TERM
PROGRESS.


LYNE