LETTER FROM ALEXANDRIA: RAMADAN II

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ALEXANDRIA 00548

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PINR, PGOV, PINS, EG
SUBJECT: LETTER FROM ALEXANDRIA: RAMADAN II

REF: ALEXANDRIA 535

1. (CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.)

2. SUMMARY: THE BAIRAM FEAST, WHICH FOLLOWS RAMADAN,
LASTED THREE DAYS IN EGYPT, FOLLOWED BY A WEEK-END. EARLY
NEGOTIATIONS, BETWEEN ALEXANDRIA SECURITY FORCES AND THE
MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD, MANAGED TO AVERT VIOLENCE ON THE
FIRST DAY OF THE FEAST. HOWEVER, THE LETTER, IF NOT THE
SPIRIT, OF THE GOE BAN ON RELIGIOUS DEMONSTRATIONS WAS
REPEATEDLY VIOLATED IN ALEXANDRIA, AND RIOT POLICE WERE
DEPLOYED TO ENSURE ORDER. MUSLIM BROTHER (AND MEMBER
OF THE PEOPLES ASSEMBLY, REPRESENTING THE WAFD PARTY)
MOHAMED EL MARAGHI WAS THE LEADING ACTOR IN THE FUNDA-
MENTALIST EVENTS IN ALEXANDRIA. END SUMMARY.

3. THE MONTH OF RAMADAN WAS AN UNEASY TIME IN ALEXANDRIA
(SEE REFTEL),A CITY WHICH HAS A HISTORY OF FUNDAMENTALIST
VIOLENCE. FOR EXAMPLE, IT WAS IN ALEXANDRIA THAT THE
MUSLIM BROTHERS ATTEMPTED TO ASSASSINATE PRESIDENT
NASSER IN 1954. SHAYKH HAFEZ SALAAMA'S CALL, IN CAIRO,
FOR A "GREEN" MARCH IN SUPPORT OF THE RAPID IMPLEMEN-
TATION OF SHARIA, OR KORANIC, LAW IN EGYPT (SEE CAIRO
15351, 15780 AND 15793),AND THE MINISTER OF INTERIOR'S
SUBSEQUENT JUNE 12 DECREE BANNING PUBLIC MARCHES,
UNDOUBTEDLY CONTRIBUTED TO THE ATMOSPHERE IN ALEXANDRIA:
ALL LEAVES FOR SECURITY OFFICERS FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FEAST AFTER RAMADAN WERE CANCELLED, AND POLICE WERE PUT
ON ALERT STATUS. WHILE THE MINISTER'S DECREE, IN FACT,
WAS VIOLATED IN ALEXANDRIA, INTENSIVE NEGOTIATIONS
BETWEEN THE FUNDAMENTALISTS AND THE SECRET POLICE--AS
WELL AS THE MASSIVE STREET PRESENCE OF RIOT POLICE ON
THE FIRST DAY OF THE FEAST--MANAGED TO AVERT VIOLENCE.
THIS IS A SUBJECT ON WHICH IT WILL BE FOREVER DIFFICULT
FOR FOREIGNERS TO MAKE TOO MANY INQUIRIES IN EGYPT. WHAT
FOLLOWS IS WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ABLE EITHER TO OBSERVE, OR
TO OBTAIN FROM SECURITY AND OTHER SOURCES. OUR CONTACT
WITH FUNDAMENTALIST CLERICS IN ALEXANDRIA REMAINS LIMITED.

4. PRAYERS IN THE STADIUM: DURING PRESIDENT SADAT'S TIME
THERE WERE INAUGURATED,IN CAIRO AND IN ALEXANDRIA,
MASSIVE MORNING PRAYER SESSIONS IN PUBLIC STADIA ON
TBE FIRST DAY OF THE BAIRAM FEAST WHICH FOLLOWS RAMADAN.
THIS YEAR IN ALEXANDRIA, STATE SECURITY AND THE MUSLIM
BROTHERS, LED BY MOHAMED AL MARAGHI, UNDERTOOK EARLY
DISCUSSIONS ON HOW THESE PRAYERS WOULD PROCEED. STATE
SECURITY FELT, PROBABLY, CORRECTLY, THAT THE OUTCOME OF
THE EVENT WOULD BE DECIDED LARGELY BY THE TONE SET BY
THE SHAYKH LEADING THE PRAYERS. THEY PROPOSED THAT THE
GOE MINISTRY OF THE AWQAF REPRESENTATIVE IN ALEXANDRIA
(TECHNICALLY THE SENIOR IMAM IN THE CITY) LEAD THE
PRAYERS. THE MB'S INSISTED ON SHAYKH MEHALAWI--A
CHARISMATIC SHAYKH WHO BECAME A PARTICULAR TARGET OF
PRESIDENT SADAT IN THE FORMER PRESIDENT'S LAST MONTHS.
(SHAYKH MEHALAWI WAS JAILED BY SADAT AND WE HAD HEARD
NOTHING ELSE ABOUT HIM UNTIL HE CAME INTO THE CONSULATE
GENERAL LAST YEAR, ESCORTED BY A BRIGADIER FROM STATE
SECURITY, TO OBTAIN A VISA FOR TRAVEL TO THE U.S. SEE
84 ALEXANDRIA 329.) THE MINISTRY OF THE INTERIOR,
ACCORDING TO OUR ALEXANDRIA SECURITY SOURCES, CONTINUED
TO INSIST ON THE GOVERNMENT MAN. THEREFORE, THE STADIUM
PRAYER NEVER TOOK PLACE.

5. PRAYERS AT SIDI GABER: SIDI GABER IS A PUBLIC SQUARE
LOCATED ON AVENUE EL HORREYA, THE CITY'S MAIN THOROUGH-
FARE, IN THE CITY'S AFFLUENT EASTERN SUBURBS. THERE IS
A SMALL MOSQUE LOCATED NEXT TO THE SUBURBAN TRAIN STATION
ON THE SQUARE. OUR STATE SECURITY CONTACTS TELL US THAT
THE MUSLIM BROTHERS CHOSE THIS MOSQUE FOR THEIR MORNING
PRAYERS JUNE 18. OTHERS HAVE TOLD US THAT THIS IS THE
TRADITIONAL PLACE FROM WHICH THE BAIRAM MARCH TO THE
CITY STADIUM BEGINS, AND THAT THE SHAYKH AT THE NEARBY
MOSQUE IS A MB (SHAYKH MEHALAWI TRADITIONALLY HOLDS
FORTH AT THE IBRAHIM MOSQUE, WHICH IS LOCATED DOWNTOWN
AT RAMLEH STATION). WHATEVER THE REASON FOR THE SITE
SELECTION--VICE ONE OF THE MAJOR MOSQUES DOWNTOWN--
SUNRISE ON THE FIRST DAY OF BAIRAM SAW APPROXIMATELY
FIFTEEN THOUSAND FUNDAMENTALISTS GATHERED IN THE STREET,
SURROUNDED BY AN ESTIMATED ONE THOUSAND POLICE IN FULL
RIOT GEAR, COMPLETE WITH SHIELDS AND BATONS. COMMENT:
BOTH THOSE FIGURES COME FROM POLICE SOURCES. AN
EGYPTIAN BUSINESSMAN, AND CONGEN CONTACT, WHO HAPPENED
TO BE IN THE AREA AT THE TIME, HOWEVER, TELLS US THAT
THERE WERE "AT LEAST" THREE THOUSAND RIOT POLICE. "I
BECAME VERY SCARED," HE SAID. END COMMENT. TRAFFIC
(WHICH IS LIGHT AT THAT EARLY HOUR) WAS TOTALLY BLOCKED,
BUT THERE WAS NO VIOLENCE, ACCORDING TO BOTH WESTERN
OBSERVERS AND STATE SECURITY SOURCES. THE CONSULATE
GENERAL'S POLITICAL ASSISTANT (A MUSLIM) LIVES ON THE
SQUARE, AND REPORTED BEING "FRIGHTENED" BY WHAT SHE
OBSERVED, INCLUDING NUMEROUS WOMEN IN FULL VEIL--THE
ENTIRE FACE COVERED (AS IN THE GULF). SHE FURTHER
REPORTED THAT THE PRAYER WAS EXTREMELY WELL-ORGANIZED,
WITH LEADERS DRESSED IN DISTINGUISHING GARB. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WERE INTENSIVE NEGOTIATIONS AT THE
SCENE, BETWEEN SECURITY OFFICIALS AND ORGANIZERS, AND
THAT THOSE PARTICIPATING DID NOT ATTEMPT TO MARCH, BUT
DISPERSED IN AN ORDERLY FASHION AFTER THE PRAYER AND
SERMON. SHE ALSO REPORTS THAT THE SERMON, BY MB MOHAMED
EL MARAGHI, CONTAINED DENUNCIATIONS OF THE GOE, CALLED
"TYRANNICAL" AT ONE POINT. BY APPARENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE SECURITY FORCES AND THE FUNDAMENTALIST
ORGANIZERS, THE CROWD WAS ENJOINED BY THE SPEAKER NOT
TO RESPOND TO VARIOUS, REPEATED JIBES HE MADE AT THE
GOVERNMENT. REITERATING HER POINT ABOUT THEIR DISCIPLINE,
OUR OBSERVER NOTED THAT THE GROUP OBEYED THIS REQUEST,
ALBEIT WITH RELUCTANCE. COMMENT: MUSLIM BROTHER
MOHAMED EL MARAGHI WAS ELECTED TO THE PEOPLES ASSEMBLY
(WAFD) IN THE HUY EHOIR ELECTIONS, REPRESENTING ALEXAN-
DRIAACXDCENTRAL DISTRICT. WE HAVEKMET WITHRWIM ONCE
(SEE ALEX QIIN PARA 21). END COMMENT.

6. SMALLER MARCHES. THERE WERE UNDOUBTEDLY SMALLER
MARCHES, TRADITIONAL ON THE FIRST DAY OF BAIRAM, AT
OTHER LOCATIONS (WE SUSPECT THAT THE SECURITY FORCES
HAD INSTRUCTIONS TO PROHIBIT ONLY "GREEN" MARCHES)--
IN CONTRAVENTION OF MINISTER ROUCHDY'S DECREE. ONE
OCCURRED IN FRONT OF THE OFFICIAL RESIDENCE, AND
INCLUDED APPROXIMATELY A HUNDRED MEN (ONLY),MOST IN
TYPICAL MB DRESS--WHITE GALLEBEYA, SKULL CAP--AND
BEARDED, CHANTING THE TRADITIONAL BAIRAM PRAYER. THE
SECURITY FORCES STATIONED AT THE RESIDENCE DID NOT
INTERFERE AS THE MEN MARCHED PAST IN A HIGHLY-DISCIPLINED,
ALMOST MILITARY FASHION. WE EARLIER REPORTED A DEMONSTRA-
TION ON JUNE 17, THE LAST DAY OF RAMADAN, IN FRONT OF
THE POLICE STATION IN THE WORKING CLASS DISTRICT OF
MOHARREM BEY (SEE CAIRO 16037, PARA 8). THIFDMARCH, OF
APPRTMIMALELY 300#$034 9, , WE HAVE SINCE LEARNED WAS
NOT A "GREEN" 76-4:#, BUT A TACTIC USED TO FORCE EYEN
GOVERNMENT TO PERMIT PUBLIC PRAYERS THE FIRST DAY OF
BAIRAM. WE HAVE HEARD OF SIMILAR DEMONSTRATIONS AT
OTHER POLICE STATIONS AROUND THE CITY, FOR THE SAME
PURPOSE.

7. POLICE-MUSLIM BROTHER "COOPERATION:" AS WE BELIEVE
IS DEMONSTRATED BY THE EVENTS IN ALEXANDRIA, THE
SECURITY FORCES ARE IN DIALOGUE WITH MB LEADERS HERE:
THE NEGOTIATIONS ATNSTATE SECURITY, FOR EXAMPLE, WERE
CONDUCTED DIRECTLY BETWEEN GENERAL ABDEL HADI SAYED AND
MOHAMED EL MARAGHI. WE ALSO SURMISE THAT THE FORCES
COUNTED ON THE ORGANIZATIONAL PROWESS, AND THE WELL-KNOWN
DISCIPLINE, OF THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD TO HELP THEM KEEP
ORDER. WE NEVERTHELESS FIND THIS COOPERATION BETWEEN
THE GOE AND A STILL-BANNED ORGANIZATION CURIOUS. IN
CONVERSATIONS ON THIS RATHER FINE POINT WITH EGYPTIAN
CONTACTS WE HAVE HEARD TWO COMPLEMENTARY RATIONALES FOR
THIS COOPERATION. ALEX NDP PARTY CHIEF, MOHAMED ABDELLAH,
IN COMMENTS REMINISCENT OF REMARKS ONE HEARS ABOUT THE
CPUSA, INDICATED THAT THE MB MOVEMENT IN EGYPT IS
THOROUGHLY PENETRATED, CONSISTS LARGELY OF OLDER
FUNDAMENTALISTS AND IS NEITHER A DYNAMIC, NOR A
DANGEROUS FORCE IN THE COUNTRY. THE BUSINESSMAN QUOTED
ABOVE (PARA 5),WHO HAS GOOD CONTACTS INSIDE THE SECURITY
SERVICES, CLAIMS THAT THE MB'S ARE "QUIET" NOW
(RELATIVE TO PAST TIMES, ONE PRESUMES). HE FURTHER
REPORTS THAT IT IS IN GOE INTEREST TO KEEP THE ORGANI-
ZATION BANNED, AS THAT ALLOWS THE SECURITY FORCES TO
MAINTAIN CLOSE TABS ON THE MOVEMENT. COMMENT: WE HAVE
HEARD RUMORS THAT THE BAN ON THE BROTHERHOOD MIGHT BE
LIFTED--BUT ALSO WORRIES EXPRESSED THAT THAT WOULD
SEND THE WRONG SIGNAL TO BOTH THE RADICAL MUSLIMS AND
THE GENERAL POPULATION. WE IMAGINE THAT THE SECURITY
CONCERNS NOTED HERE MUST WEIGH HEAVILY IN GOE CALCULA-
TIONS ON THIS ISSUE. END COMMENT.

8. "ISLAMIC GROUPS:" WHAT DOES CONCERN THESE SAME TWO
SOURCES IS "AL-GAMIAT AL-ISLAMIYYA" (ISLAMIC GROUPS),
THE SHADOWY, RADICAL UNDERGROUND GROUPS WHICH OPERATE
ON A CELL SYSTEM, ACCORDING TO ABDELLAH. ABDELLAH
SAYS THAT THE GOVERNMENT DOES NOT KNOW WHO THEY ARE, OR
WHO LEADS THEM. THE BUSINESSMAN SAYS THAT IT IS THESE
GROUPS WHICH, AMONG OTHER THINGS, PUT THEIR FEMALES INTO
FULL-FACE VEILS, AS NOTED ABOVE. HE ALSO CLAIMS THAT
THE GROUPS ARE COMPOSED OF THE URBAN POOR, UNABLE TO
COMPETE IN THE DIFFICULT ENVIRONMENT OF CONTEMPORARY
EGYPT.

9. COMMENT: WE DO NOT WANT TO EXAGGERATE THE IMPORTANCE
OF A GATHERING OF FIFTEEN THOUSAND PEOPLE IN A CITY OF
THREE MILLION. (THE ONLY MEDIA COVERAGE OF THIS EVENT
WAS IN AN OPPOSITION NEWSPAPER, WHICH ALSO PUBLISHED TWO
PHOTOGRAPHS OF THE GATHERING. A COPY HAS BEEN POUCHED
TO INR AND NEA/EGY). NOR CAN WE EXPLAIN WHY SUCH A
MASSIVE DEFIANCE OF MINISTRY ROUCHDY'S DECREE OCCURRED
ONLY IN ALEXANDRIA, NOT IN CAIRO (OR ELSEWHERE IN EGYPT,
TO THE BEST OF OUR KNOWLEDGE). WE SURMISE THAT, AT
LEAST AS REGARDS ALEXANDRIA, THE SECURITY FORCES CAME
TO BELIEVE THAT A CONTROLLED GATHERING--EVEN ONE WHICH
COMPLETELY BLOCKED ALEXANDRIA'S MAIN STREET--WAS
PREFERABLE TO A POTENTIALLY VIOLENT, UNCONTROLLED EVENT,
WHATEVER THE LEGAL TECHNICALITIES. IN THIS REGARD,
THE MB'S BOTH SERVED GOE PURPOSES AND PROVIDED A VENUE
FOR AL-GAMIAT AL-ISLAMIYYA--WHICH THEY WOULD HPXVE NEVER
BEEN ABLE TO OBTAIN THEMSELVES FROM THE GOVERNMENT.
DESPITE THE EARLY HOUR OF THE SIDI GABER GATHERING, THE
FACT OF ITS OCCURRENCE IS KNOWN THROUGHOUT THE CITY,
AND HAS PROVOKED WORRIED COMMENTS FROM SOME OF OUR
CONTACTS--USUALLY ALONG THE LINES THAT, "THE GOVERNMENT
SHOULD CRACK-DOWN ON THESE PEOPLE." WITHIN THE LIMITS OF
RATHER SEVERE PERSONNEL CONSTRAINTS, WE SHALL ATTEMPT
TO EXPAND OUR REPORTING ON FUNDAMENTALISM IN EGYPT'S
SECOND CITY. END COMMENT.


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