MODERATION: DOES IT HAVE A CHANCE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 01 TEHRAN 11319

E.O. 12065: GDS 10/25/85 (TOMSETH, VICTOR L.) OR-P
TAGS: PINT SHUM PINR IR
SUBJECT: MODERATION: DOES IT HAVE A CHANCE?


1. (C - ENTIRE TEXT).


2. SUMMARY: THE MODERATE IRANIAN POLITICAL PARTIES, WHICH
WERE ACTIVE DURING THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION AND WHICH HAVE A
LONG HISTORY OF OPPOSITION TO THE SHAH, HAVE BEEN PUSHED INTO
THE BACKGROUND BY THOSE INDIVIDUALS AND GROUPS WHO FOLLOW A
NARROW AND AUTHORITARIAN INTERPRETATION OF ISLAM. WITHIN THE
PAST FEW WEEKS, MODERATE GROUPS WHO FAVOR A MORE BALANCED
SOCIETY RESEMBLING A WESTERN SOCIAL-DEMOCRACY, HAVE BECOME
MORE VOCAL. WHILE NOT DIRECTLY CRITICIZING AYATOLLAH KHOMEINI,
THEY HAVE FOCUSED THEIR CRITICISM ON SOME OF THE OBVIOUS
FAILURES OF THE PRESENT REGIME. THE POLITICAL POSITION OF
THESE GROUPS IS STILL PRECARIOUS. IT EXPRESSES ITSELF THROUGH
A FEW SECULAR SPOKESMEN, SOME LIBERAL CLERICS, AND SOME SMALL
NEWSPAPERS. ALTHOUGH STILL NOT A MAJOR FORCE ON THE IRANIAN
POLITICAL SCENE, THESE GROUPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ORGANIZE
THEMSELVES ENOUGH TO EXPRESS IDEAS CONTRARY TO THOSE OF THE
RULING ESTABLISHMENT. END SUMMARY.


3. THE ROLE OF SECULAR AND CLERICAL MODERATES -- THE HEIRS IS
STILL A MATTER OF DEBATE. SINCE THE REVOLUTION FIGURES SUCH AS
MATIN-DAFTARI NAZIH, FORUHAR, SANJABI, AND BAZARGAN HIMSELF
HAVE BEEN OVERSHADOWED BY KHOMEINI AND BY HIS ALLIES WHO SHARE
HIS VISION OF A THEOCRATIC IRAN. NOT ALL OF THESE SUPPORTERS
OF KHOMEINI ARE CLERICS; THEY INCLUDE THE "SECULAR MULLAHS"
SUCH AS QOTEZADEH, YAZDI, CHAMRAN, TABATABA'I AND OTHERS. THIS
GROUP HAS DOMINATED THE GOVERNMENT, THE PRESS, THE
REVOLUTIONARY COUNCIL, AND THE COUNCIL OF EXPERTS. IT HAS
HARRASSED AND IGNORED ITS OPPONENTS. BARZARGAN REMAINS
POWERLESS; MATIN-DAFTARI AND NAZIH ARE IN HIDING; FORUHAR IS
IGNORED; AND SAXJABI QUIT HIS JOB IN DISGUST AND LEFT THE
COUNTRY.


4. ALTHOUGH THE POSITION OF THE MODERATE PARTIES IS STILL VERY
FRAGILE, IN RECENT WEEKS THEY HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF LIFE.
ALTHOUGH THEIR MOST IMPORTANT ORGANS, INCLUDING THE NEWSPAPER
AYANDEGAN AND THE POPULAR HUMOR MAGAZINE AHANGAR, WERE
SUPPRESSED IN AUGUST, THEY HAVE BEGUN PUBLISHING SMALL PAPERS
SUCH AS KHALO-E-MOSALMAN (FROM THE MUSLIME REPUBLICAN PEOPLES'
PARTY); JONBESH (PUBLISHED BY ALI ASGHAR HAJ SEYYID JAVADI),
JFBHEH-YE-AZADI FROM THE IRAN PARTY AND AZADI FROM THE
NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION OF THESE
PAPERS IS LIMITED AND THEY CARRY MUCH LESS INFLUENCE THAN THE
THREE MAJOR DAILIES (SAYHAN, ETTELAAT, AND BAMDAD) THEY DO
OFFER SUBSTANTIAL AND CRITICAL COMMENTARY ON EVENT -- A
COMMENTARY OFTEN AT VARIANCE WITH THE OFFICIAL VERSION.


5. FOR THE PAST SIX WEEKS, THE MUSLIM REPUBLICAN PEOPLES PARTY
(MPRP) HAS ORGANIZED FRIDAY AFTERNOON MEETINGS AT ITS TEHRAN
HEADQUARTERS. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST MEETING ATTRACTED ONLY ABOUT
100 PEOPLE, EMBASSY POLITICAL OFFICER AND POLITICAL ASSISTANT
ATTENDED OCTOBER 19 MEETING AND FOUND AN OVERFLOW OF OVER 1500.
THE CROWD WAS LARGELY MIDDLE-CLASS AND WELL-EDUCATED. THERE
WERE MANY WOMEN, SOME VEILED, A FEW CLERICS. THE SPEAKERS
INCLUDED AHMAD ALIZADRH, THE SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE MPRP,
AND KAHMATULLAH MOQOADAM-MARAGHE'I, LEADER OF THE RADICAL
MOVEMENT AND EAST AZARBAIJAN DELEGATE TO THE COUNCIL OF
MOVEMENT AND EAST AZARBAIJAN DELEGATE TO THE COUNCIL OF
EXPERTS. ALTHOUGH THE AUDIENCE AND SPEAKERS HAD NO AFFECTION
FOR THE OLD REGIME, THERE WERE FEW MENTIONS OF AYATOLLAH
KHOMEINI, AND NO ANTI-AMERICAN STATEMENTS.


6. THE SPEAKERS ELICITED THE GREATEST RESPONSE BY THEIR
ATTACKS ON AKHUNDBAZI (CLERICAL MEDDLING),ON THE COUNCIL OF
EXPERTS, AND ON ATTEMPTS TO ESTABLISH A THEOCRATIC
DICTATORSHIP THROUGH THE VELAYAT-E-FAQIM. ONE OF THE SPEAKERS
FOUND THE CROWD'S PULSE WHEN HE SAID, "WE WANT THE ISLAM OF DR.
SHAR'IATI; WE DON'T WANT THE ISLAM OF ........)" AND LEFT THE
END EMPTY FOR THE CROWD TO FILL IN. BOTH MOQOADAM-MARAGHE'I
AND ALIZADEH WERE CRITICAL OF THE VELAYAT-E-FAQIH. THE LATTER
SAID, "THIS CLAUSE IS AN ACT OF TREASON AGAINST FUTURE
GENERATIONS OF IRANIAN PEOPLE. WE HAD A REVOLUTION NOT TO
PREPARE THE GROUND FOR A DIFFERENT KIND OF DESPOTISM." sPEAKING
PRIVATELY AFTER THE MEETING, MOQOADAM-MARAGHE'I SAID THAT EVEN
THE RELIGIOUS LEADERSHIP HAS NOW REALIZED THAT IT WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO SELL THE VELAYAT-E-FAQIH TO THE IRANIAN PEOPLE IN ITS
PRESENT FORM. "THE COUNCIL OF EXPERTS HAS DECIDED TO REOPEN
DEBATE ON THIS ISSUE. I HOPE THAT SOME KIND OF IMPROVEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE."


7. THE MODERATES, IN CRITICISING VELAYAT-E-FAQIH, HAVE FOUND
SOME ALLIES AMONG CLERICS SUCH AS AYATOLLAHS NURI AND SHARI'AT-
MADARI WHO SHARE THE VIEW THAT SUCH AN INSTITUTION, IF NOT
PROPERLY DEFINED, COULD LEAD TO A DICTATORSHIP. ONE OF THE MOST
INTERESTING RECENT DEVELOPMENTS HAS BEEN THE ENTRANCE OF
AYATOLLAH KHOMEINI'S SON, HOJJAT AL-ISLAM AHMAD KHOMEINI, INTO
THE DEBATE ON THIS SUBJECT. IN THESE DEBATES, THE YOUNG
KHOMEINI HAS TAKEN A POSITION WHICH HAS MUCH IN COMMON WITH THE
MODERATE VIEW THAT VELAYAT-E-FAQIH, AS DEFINED BY THE
CONSTITUTION, CONTAINS SOME DANGEROUS AMBIGUITIES. EMBASSY WILL
DISCUSS THIS QUESTION IN MORE DETAIL IN SEPARATE MESSAGE.


8. IN PART, RECENT OUTSPOKENNESS OF THE MODERATES CAN BE
ATTRIBUTED TO DISILLUSION WITH SOME ASPECTS OF THE REVOLUTION --
ESPECIALLY TRENDS TOWARD AUTHORITARIAN, CLERICAL RULE. THE
MODERATES HAVE ALSO TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE GOVERNMENT'S OBVIOUS
MISHANDLING OF CERTAIN ISSUES TO ATTRACT ALLIES BEYOND THE
NORMALLY MINISCULE CONTITUENCY OF GROUPS SUCH AS THE RADICAL
MOVEMENT, THE IRAN PARTY, AND TEH NATIONAL FRONT. FOR EXAMPLE,
THE OBVIOUS FAILURE OF A MILITARY POLICY IN KURDESTAN HAS
BROUGHT CALLS FOR RECONCILIATION, EVEN BY FIGURES WITHIN THE
REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS. A COLUMNIST IN THE NORMALLY CONSERVATIVE
ENGLISH-LANGUAGE TEHRAN TIMES HAS URGED THE WITHDRAWAL OF NON-
KURDISH GUARDS FROM THE REGION; THE TUDEH PARTY PAPER MARDOM,
STUNG BY ACCUSATIONS OF SOVIET INVOLVEMENT IN KURDESTAN, HAS
CALLED FOR A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT. ONLY THE RIGHT-WING ISLAMIC
REPUBLICAN PARTY, THROUGH ITS ORGAN JOMHURI-YE-ISLAMI, HAS
CONTINUED TO REFER TO THE KURDISH INSURGENTS AS "AMERICAN
MERCENARIES". HOWEVER, THE IRP HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED
IN ITS POSITION.


9. THE GOVERNMENT'S FAILURE TO ENSURE PERSONAL SECURITY, ITS
CRUDE ATTEMPTS AT CENSORSHIP, AND SCANDALS INVOLVING THE
REVOLUTIONARY COURT SYSTEM -- LARGE-SCALE BRIBERY AND THEFT
INVOLVING NO LESS A FIGURE THAN FORMER TEHRAN PROSECUTOR
AYATOLLAH AZARI-QOMI HIMSELF -- HAS ALSO WIDENED THE APPEAL OF
THE MODERATE MESSAGE. THE PAPER AZADI OF OCTOBER 18 PRINTED A
BITTER ATTACK ON THE REVOLUTIONARY JUSTICE SYSTEM ACCUSING IT
OF IGNORING THEFTS BY ILYAVI, FORMER ASSISTANT TO PROSECUTOR-
GENERAL HADAVI, WHILE SENDING PROSTITUTES AND SMALL-TIME DRUG
SMUGGLERS TO THE FIRING SQUAD. THE RECENT ATTACK ON TWO
JOURNALISTS AT THE COUNCIL OF EXPERTS BUILDING LED THE ULTRA-
ESTABLISHMENT PAPER ETTELAAT OF OCTOBER 22 TO WRITE A STRONG
FRONT-PAGE EDITORIAL ENTITLED "LET US NOT REPEAT MISTAKES",
POINTING OUT THAT THE PEOPLE OF QOM AND TABRIZ REBELLED IN THE
SHAH'S TIME BECAUSE FOR DECADES THEY HAD BEEN DENIED THE RIGHT
TO EXPRESS THEMSELVES.


10. WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS ADD UP TO? MOST IMPORTANT, THE
MODERATES OF THE IRAN PARTY, THE NATIONAL FRONT, AND OTHER
GROUPS ARE ONCE AGAIN FINDING THEIR VOICE AND BEGINNING TO SPEAK
OUT. IN DOING SO, THEY WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME SEVERAL MAJOR
OBSTACLES:

- A) THE MEDIA REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART IN THE HANDS OF THEIR
OPPONENTS. JOMHURI-YE-ISLAMI BECOMES MORE RABID BY THE DAY, AND
THE OTHER MAJOR PAPERS ARE EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS. THE RADIO AND THE
TELEVISION, UNDER QOTEZADEH'S OPPORTUNISTIC AND UNENLIGHTENED
GUIDANCE, RARELY DEVIATES FROM ITS DAILY MENU OF PSEUDO-
RELIGIOUS DRIVEL INTERSPERSED WITH PSEUDO-REVOLUTIONARY DRIVEL.

- B) ALL INTELLECTUALS HAVE BEEN TAINTED BY KHOMEINI'S
DENUNCIATIONS. HIS FAMOUS AUGUST DECLARATION THAT "WE DO NOT WANT
INTELLECTUALS" IS STILL REMEMBERED. HIS DIATRIBES AGAINST WESTERN
DECADENCE HAVE MADE ALL WESTERN MANIFESTATIONS, INCLUDING
NICETIES, SUSPECT IN HIS FOLLOWERS' EYES.


11. THESE MODERATE GROUPS STILL LEAD A PRECARIOUS EXISTENCE ON
THE FRINGES OF IRANIAN POLITICAL LIFE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY
ARE LEFT ALONE TO HOLD THEIR MEETINGS AND PUBLISH THEIR
NEWSPAPERS BECAUSE THEY ARE CONSIDERED IRRELEVANT TO THE POLITICAL
PROCESS. HOWEVER, IN HIS MOST RECENT SPEECHES, KHOMEINI HAS TAKEN
NOTE OF THEM AND HAS CRITICIZED THEM HARSHLY FOR THEIR ATTACKS ON
VELAYAT-E-FAQIH AND ON THE CLERGY. IN A SPEECH TO TEHRAN RELIGIOUS
LEADERS ON OCTOBER 20, KHOMEINI REFERRED DIRECTLY TO THE MPRP
MEETING, SAYING, "RECENTLY, IN ONE OF THEIR MEETINGS, ONE OF THESE
MISGUIDED ONES, WHO KNOWS NOTHING ABOUT ISLAM, SUGGESTED THAT THE
COUNCIL OF EXPERTS SHOULD BE DISSOLVED. AND THE REST CHEERED...
YOU, WHO DID NOT EVEN PARTICIPATE IN THE VOTING (FOR THE COUNCIL)
HAVE NO RIGHT TO SAY THIS... IT WAS THE RELIGIOUS LEADERS WHO GAVE
YOU (OPPONENTS OF VELAYATI-E-FAQIH) THE FREEDOM TO SAY WHATEVER
YOU WANT TO SAY. YOU WERE IN HIDING WHEN THE RELIGIOUS LEADERS
WERE STRUGGLING AGAINST THE SHAH AND HIS FATHER. NOW YOU WANT TO
DISSOLVE THE ASSEMBLY?... YOU DO NOT HAVE THE POWER TO DO SO. I
WILL SLAP YOU IN THE MOUTH. STOP THIS AND JOIN THE RANKS OF ISLAM
AND LET THIS COUNTRY PUT ITSELF IN ORDER."


12. KHOMEINI'S ATTACKS ON THIS GROUP ARE STILL ONLY WORDS AND ARE
UNLIKELY TO TAKE THE FORM OF ALL-OUT REPRESSION INVOLVING THE
CLOSING OF NEWSPAPERS, THE BANNING OF MEETINGS, AND THE ARREST OF
LEADERSHIP. MANY OF THESE GROUPS AND THEIR LEADERS HAVE
DISTINGUISHED RECORDS OF OPPOSITION TO THE MONARCHY - RECORDS WHICH
ARE DIFFICULT TO IGNORE. HOWEVER, THE HARD-LINE CLERGY AND ITS
ALLIES HAVE BEEN ISOLATING AND ATTACKING INDIVIDUAL TARGETS FROM
AMONG THE MODERATES SUCH AS ??AZIH, METEN-DAFTARI, AND FORUHAR.


13. AS THE AUTHORITIES CONTINUE TO MISHANDLE MATTERS SUCH AS ARAB-
IRANIAN RELATIONS, PROVINICIAL AFFAIRS, AND REVOLUTIONARY JUSTICE,
THE MESSAGE OF THESE MODERATE GROUPS COULD ATTRACT A WIDER
FOLLOWING. PERHAPS THEY COULD FORCE SOME CONCESSION TO THOSE WHO
DO NOT SHARE THE IMAM'S VISION OF AN IRAN RULED IN ACCORDANCE WITH
THE TEACHINGS OF THAT SPECIALIZED VIEW OF ISLAM HELD BY ONE SECTOR
OF A MINORITY SECT OF THAT RELIGION.


14. IN THE LONGER TERM, IF THESE GROUPS CAN PRESERVE SOME
COHERENCE THEY MAY PRESENT AN ALTERNATIVE TO A CLERICAL MONOPOLY
OF POWER IN POST-KHOMEINI IRAN. AT THAT TIME THEIR REVOLUTIONARY
CREDENTIALS MAY BECOME VERY IMPORTANT; BUT FOR THE IMMEDIATE
FUTURE, THIS GROUP WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
IRANIAN POLITICS -- ARTICULATE, INTERESTING, BUT WIELDING LITTLE
REAL POWER.

LAINGEN